GOLD IS BREAKING OUT ... With everyone talking about oil, the gold market is breaking out to the highest level in seventeen years while oil is starting to slip. I'm going to make a case here for moving some money out of the energy sector and into gold stocks.... READ MORE
GOLD CONTINUES TO CLIMB... Gold jumped another $4 today to reach another 2005 high. Gold stocks are rising as well. Chart 1 shows the Gold ETF (GLD) reaching $454 today which puts it within striking distance of the high reached late last year. With bullion on the rise, gold stocks... READ MORE
ENERGY TREND IS STILL UP ... I've received a number of questions on some of my recent market messages that I'll try to answer herein. One has to do with my comment on Monday that "the trend in the energy sector is still up ,but very-overextended&... READ MORE
CRUDE NEARS TEST OF LOW 60s ... Energy futures fell again today and continued to lend short-term support to the rest of the market. Crude oil fell 75 cents to close at $63.34. Last Tuesday, I wrote that crude appeared headed for a test of initial support near $63. Chart... READ MORE
FRIDAY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW ... Some of you may have watched my 7:10 am interview on Bloomberg TV this morning. I discussed the upside breakout in the healthcare sector that I wrote about here earlier in the week. For those of you who missed it, however, I'd like to... READ MORE
WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD AND JAPAN ... I've written several earlier articles on my belief that a weakening dollar would boost gold shares and foreign ETFs. As recently as August 22, I posted an article on why a falling dollar boosted foreign ETFs and highlighted the Japanese market which... READ MORE
NEW HEALTHCARE LEADERSHIP ... Yesterday I showed the Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) hitting a new high for the year and referred to the group as defensive in nature. I'd like to build on both themes today since healthcare is one of today's sector leaders and is... READ MORE
OVERBOUGHT CRUDE OIL BACKS OFF FROM $70 ... Crude oil fell another $1.61 today and gave a boost to the stock market. With all the concern over Hurricane Katrina last week, it was easy to lose sight of the fact that crude oil was probably ready for a correction anyway.... READ MORE
GLOBAL ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS ... While the U.S. took Labor Day off, the rest of the world continued to trade. And they were buying. Most of the world's stock markets gained ground on Monday (and again today) which is giving the U.S. market a boost. Chart... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND IMPROVES ... After a turbulent week dominated by Hurricane Katrina, the stock market appears to be ending the week on a more positive note. Wednesday's upside turnaround was the most important day of the week. As Chart 1 shows, the S&P 500 moved back... READ MORE
GOLD JUMPS SHARPLY AS DOLLAR FALLS ... Yesterday I showed the Gold ETF (GLD) and the Gold (XAU) Index stabilizing at their moving average lines, and suggested that both were starting to benefit from a falling dollar. With the dollar falling even further today, gold prices have gained more than $9.... READ MORE
CRB INDEX SOARS ON HURRICANE ... Energy prices aren't the only ones being pushed higher by the recent hurricane. The CRB Index has climbed to the highest level in twenty-five years. Most of this week's gains have been seen in those commodities directly related to problems in... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDERS ARE CLIMBING AGAIN ... Yesterday's late selloff in crude oil proved temporary. Reports of heavy hurricane damage in the Gulf Coast has pushed energy prices at or close to record highs today -- including crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas. That's giving another boost... READ MORE
ENERGY RALLY FADES... The threat from Hurricane Katrina caused an early spike in oil prices to $70 which caused early selling in stocks. As the day wore on, however, crude gave back most of its early gains to close up $1.15 at $67.20. The late pullback helped stabilize... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM SLIPPAGE... Wednesday's price action pushed the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average on a closing basis for the first time since mid-May and confirmed recent signs of weakening in its short-term trend. The SPY also closed back below its March peak at 122. The... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO FALL ... I've written before about the fact that homebuilders (and REITs) were among the market's worst performers during August. That trend continued again today. But this time there was some tangible evidence that the housing boom might finally be slowing. July home resales... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES ARE HAVING A STRONG AUGUST... I've written several pieces recently -- and again today -- about how a weakening dollar was helping foreign ETFs outperform the U.S. market. That's been especially true since the start of August. Chart 1 helps to show the... READ MORE
EXCEED MARCH HIGH ... Last Monday I wrote a bullish story on the Japanese stock market. At the time, the Nikkei 225 was breaking out to a new four-year high. I suggested that Japan iShares (EWJ) were about to do the same. They're almost there. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY LINE ... After selling off throughout the week, crude oil jumped sharply on Friday and gave a big boost to the energy sector. It's too soon to tell if today's bounce marked the end of the recent downside correction, but it was... READ MORE
DOW DIAMONDS BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY LINE ... Little has happened to the major market averages since my Monday message. Chart 1 shows the Dow Diamonds bouncing off their 50-day average again. That's usually the first line of important support during a pullback or consolidation. The daily MACD histogram bars... READ MORE
HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE ARCHIVES... One of our readers asked yesterday if I had any thoughts on the housing sector. In fact, I've written several articles on housing over the last month. An August 5 headline read: "Real Estate Has A Bad Week". An August 4... READ MORE
CRUDE DROP HURTS ENERGY SHARES... On Monday I wrote about energy shares looking over-extended and vulnerable to some profit-taking. They've been the weakest part of the market over the last two days. Not surprisingly, crude oil dropped more than $2.00 today as well. That's not... READ MORE
DOW DIAMONDS HOLD 50-DAY LINE ... The Dow Diamonds have been moving sideways since the start of August. Despite their loss of upside momentum, there hasn't been much chart damage either. Chart 1 shows the Dow Diamonds surviving a test of their 50-day moving average at the start of... READ MORE
GOLD SHARES HAVE STRONG WEEK ... Among industry groups, gold stocks catapulted to the top spot last week. Chart 1 shows the Gold & Silver (XAU) Index breaking through a major down trendline and its 200-day moving average. A lot of that had to do with a weaker dollar. [I recently... READ MORE
JAPAN ETF CHALLENGES 2005 HIGH ... At the start of August, I wrote that a weaker dollar was giving a big boost to foreign Exchange Traded Funds which were outperforming the U.S. That's because foreign ETFs benefit from rising stocks and rising foreign currencies. There have been some... READ MORE
JOHN'S ON VACATION THIS WEEK...... John's taking a well deserved break from watching the markets. If everything is going to schedule, he should be enjoying the sights at Yellowstone National Park right about now. In the meantime, I thought we'd take a look back... READ MORE
S&P CONTINUES TO WEAKEN -- MACD TURNS DOWN ... The market's short-term picture continues to weaken. Yesterday I wrote about the MACD lines for the S&P 500 being on the verge of turning negative. They did that today for the S&P and several... READ MORE
STRONG JOBS REPORT PUSHES YIELDS HIGHER... A surprisingly strong July jobs report (with wages rising at the fastest pace in a year) have pushed bond prices sharply lower today and bond yields higher. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note yield jumping close to 4.40% which is the highest level... READ MORE
WHY THE S&P 500 LOOKS OVERBOUGHT... Short-term indicators point to an overbought market. The 9-day RSI has been weakening from overbought territory over 70 on the S&P 500. That's creating a short-term negative divergence. The latest peak in the MACD lines barely exceeded the... READ MORE
RETAILERS FALL ON VOLUME... Today's weak performance by retailers is causing some nervous selling in an overbought market. Disappointing July retail sales have made the group one of the day's weakest performers. Some of today's selling may also be the result of some chart... READ MORE
EURO BOTTOM BOOSTS GOLD... On Monday I wrote about the likelihood that the Euro (and other major foreign currencies) were bottoming against the Dollar Index which had stalled at major resistance near 90 (August 01, 2005). That trend is accelerating today. Chart 1 shows the Euro climbing to the highest... READ MORE
COMMODITY STOCKS RALLY ... The recent upturn in commodity markets is igniting new interest in commodity-related stocks. Outside of energy, which remains very strong, other commodity stocks that had a strong day were aluminum, copper, gold, and steel. Yesterday I showed the CRB Index rising to a new five-month high. It... READ MORE
DOLLAR IS STALLING NEAR 90... Not too long ago I wrote about the U.S. Dollar Index having reached a major resistance zone ranging from 90 to 92. Those were the peaks hit during the first half of 2004. I also wrote about the dollar being in a major overbought... READ MORE
RAILS LEAD TRANSPORTS HIGHER ... A week ago the Dow Transports broke resistance at their June highs to turn their trend higher. I pointed out at the time that that was a positive turn for the market. The transports had another strong day today. What I found even more encouraging was... READ MORE
SPRINT REACHES FIVE-YEAR HIGH ... Sprint is the day's biggest percentage gainer in the telecom group. The daily bars in Chart 1 show FON surging to a new 52-week high on rising volume. The monthly bars in Chart 2 show the telecom leader reaching a new five-year high. Nextel... READ MORE
TELECOM HOLDERS BREAK 200-DAY LINE ... Normally I focus my attention on market groups that are showing market leadership. I look for market sectors or industry groups that rank highest in the weekly and monthly relative strength rankings and that have strong looking chart patterns. Today's story is a... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS HAVE FLATTENED OUT ... Bond yields have been dropping since the early 1980's when the inflationary bubble of the 1970's ended. Chart 1 shows that portion of the drop in bond yields that started in early 2000. That drop was largely due to deflationary forces... READ MORE
FINANCIAL ETF UP AGAINST RESISTANCE ... Earlier today I showed the Nasdaq Composite testing overhead resistance formed at the start of the year and in an overbought condition. I suggested that might be enough to cause some profit-taking. Financial stocks are in a somewhat similar situation. Chart 1 shows that the... READ MORE
AN IMPORTANT TEST ... The Nasdaq Composite Index is undergoing an important test of overhead chart resistance. And it's doing so in an overbought condition. That's an important test not only for the Nasdaq but the rest of the market as well. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq... READ MORE
MARKETS FOLLOW REVALUATION SCRIPT... Over the last year I've written several articles on the possible implications of a revaluation of the yuan by the Chinese. [Type "yuan" in search box under archived market messages]. An April 22 piece was headlined: "Why a Higher Yuan Might... READ MORE