Julius de Kempenaer

Julius de Kempenaer


Julius is a CMT and the creator of Relative Rotation Graphs™. This unique method to visualize relative strength within a universe of securities first launched on Bloomberg professional services terminals in 2011 and later on StockCharts in 2014. Learn More 

Archived News

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(When) Will we See $40k in Bitcoin?

(When) Will we See $40k in Bitcoin?

Bitcoin and, more broadly, cryptocurrencies, are back to the forefront of financial markets. A lot of new participants are entering the crypto-space and they are all looking to get a piece of the bitcoin-pie. So what can we learn from the Bitcoin chart when we want to get an idea...   READ MORE 

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What's with Gold?

What's with Gold?

The Relative Rotation Graph for Commodities shows the tail for precious metals deep inside the lagging quadrant and recently bending towards the left again after a few weeks of picking up relative momentum. This makes precious metals the weakest group in the universe. Watching such a rotation on the tail...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Strong Performance for XLC in December

Sector Spotlight: Strong Performance for XLC in December

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I kick off by walking viewers through last week's performances and rotations on the Relative Rotation Graphs for Asset Classes and US sectors. After the break, I put these rotations in a bigger perspective and bring in seasonality for the month of...   READ MORE 

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Seasonality Points to a Strong Month of December for XLC

Seasonality Points to a Strong Month of December for XLC

The chart above shows the seasonality for all US sectors relative to the S&P 500 index. The numbers in the table are the percentages of time in history (20 years when available) where a sector outperformed the S&P. For the coming month of December, two sectors...   READ MORE 

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RRG is Picking Up Turnaround in HAL

RRG is Picking Up Turnaround in HAL

With returns in the Energy sector flying off the charts, I want to track developments in individual stocks within the sector closely. This is particularly true because the rotation of the sector on the weekly Relative Rotation Graph is still not very strong. The weekly tail on XLE is shown...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight Rotations

Sector Spotlight: Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight Rotations

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I walk viewers through the current state of asset class and sector rotations. After that, I zoom in, using the Relative Rotation Graphs of Equal weight and Cap weighted sectors side by side in order to spot differences or anomalies that can help us...   READ MORE 

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Financial Stocks Showing Strength on Relative Rotation Graph as Dow Hits 30k

Financial Stocks Showing Strength on Relative Rotation Graph as Dow Hits 30k

The Financial sector has been picking up a lot of relative strength recently. On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors (against SPY), XLF is on a rotation trail through the improving quadrant and closing in on a cross over into the leading quadrant. Where JdK RS-Momentum was slightly lower...   READ MORE 

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Sometimes You Need to Change Lanes to Stay on the Right Track

Sometimes You Need to Change Lanes to Stay on the Right Track

When I was preparing for last week's episode of Sector Spotlight and writing an article for the RRG Blog on the Growth/Value Rotation, I had to think back to an article that I wrote for this newsletter back in August. The title for this article was "...   READ MORE 

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INTC at Risk for a Violent Move Lower

INTC at Risk for a Violent Move Lower

On the Relative Rotation Graph for Technology stocks (XLK), the tail on INTC stands out - but not in a positive way. INTC is positioned inside the improving quadrant after a recovery in relative momentum (JdK RS-Momentum), but recently started to roll over again, while still being the technology stock...   READ MORE 

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Adding FB As a Short to RRG Long/Short Basket Trade Ideas

Adding FB As a Short to RRG Long/Short Basket Trade Ideas

From time to time, I discuss possible long or short positions (stocks, ETFs) based on observations on Relative Rotation Graphs or ideas generated from them. Currently, the baskets contain five positions each. Below, I will review all positions and come up with a few proposed changes to the mix. Long...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Rotation OUT of Large-Caps

Sector Spotlight: Rotation OUT of Large-Caps

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I look at the performances for asset classes and sectors last week, noticing long tails on those daily RRGs - that indicates some big moves that have taken place. Following the lookback using daily RRGs, I move on to some weekly charts for stocks,...   READ MORE 

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A Closer Look at the Growth to Value Rotation - There is More To It Than Meets the Eye...

A Closer Look at the Growth to Value Rotation - There is More To It Than Meets the Eye...

There is a lot of talk lately regarding the Growth to Value rotation that seems to be going on. And if you look at the surface, that is certainly true, but there is more to it than meets the eye... The Relative Rotation Graph below visualizes this rotation and shows...   READ MORE 

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Forget about AAPL! What is Happening Under the Hood of Rotation Out of Technology?

Forget about AAPL! What is Happening Under the Hood of Rotation Out of Technology?

The flow of money out of the Technology sector is clearly visible on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, and it is an observation that has made by many market commentators recently. What I want to do in this article is look under the hood of the technology sector...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation After the Election

Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation After the Election

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I look at asset class and sector rotation after last week's elections and try to digest the impact for various sectors. I analyze both the daily and weekly RRGs and find that, for some sectors, the different timeframes send contradicting messages. After...   READ MORE 

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Sector Rotation Shows Money Flowing Out of Technology, Communications and Discretionary

Sector Rotation Shows Money Flowing Out of Technology, Communications and Discretionary

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows an ongoing rotation out of the three strongest performers in 2020 so far. Technology is inside the weakening quadrant, following a long rotation through leading, and has started to accelerate towards lagging. Consumer Discretionary is trailing slightly behind the rotation of XLK...   READ MORE 

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Did We Already See "The Dip" or Is There Risk Ahead?

Did We Already See "The Dip" or Is There Risk Ahead?

Every first Tuesday of the month in Sector Spotlight, I go over the completed monthly charts for the prior month. Sometime mid-2019, when there was a lot of discussion on the yield curve being inverted, I started to include a long-term chart of the yield-curve in my monthly overviews. And,...   READ MORE 

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This Energy Stock Has Started to Improve!

This Energy Stock Has Started to Improve!

Last Tuesday 11/3, Election Day, I joined Dave Keller on The Final Bar. Most likely because all potential US-based guests were busy doing something else ;) Dave and I talked about the Stock/Bond rotation going into the elections and how that lined up with the 2016 elections. We also...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Yield Curve Steepening Accelerates

Sector Spotlight: Yield Curve Steepening Accelerates

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, as it is the first Tuesday of the new month, I take a look at the monthly charts for asset classes and US sectors. Most of the (strong) monthly trends are still intact. The long-term chart of the 10-2 yield curve, in combination with...   READ MORE 

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Monthly Charts, Bars or Lines?

Monthly Charts, Bars or Lines?

On the first Tuesday of every month, I have a segment in Sector Spotlight in which I look at the completed monthly charts for the previous month. It forces me to sit down and look at the market from a longer-term perspective and make up my mind about trends that...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Asset Rotation on Same 2016 Track

Sector Spotlight: Asset Rotation on Same 2016 Track

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I review asset and sector rotations of the last week, then move on to my monthly segment on seasonality and whether or not it matches with current rotations. Materials, Industrials, Energy and Real Estate seem on track for a performance in line with their...   READ MORE 

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Seasonality is Pointing to Outperformance for Materials and Industrials in November

Seasonality is Pointing to Outperformance for Materials and Industrials in November

We are approaching the month of November, which, this year, also means election month. In last week's edition of the ChartWatchers Newsletter, I wrote an article. Presidential Rotation, on how the rotations for Stocks vs. Bonds are now looking similar to the rotation seen around the same time...   READ MORE 

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Presidential Rotation

Presidential Rotation

Those of you who follow my blogs and watch Sector Spotlight on StockCharts TV will know that I regularly look at rotations among various asset classes. I talked about that subject in last week's show, focusing on the relationship between stocks and bonds, and I wanted to highlight...   READ MORE 

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AMD is at Risk!

AMD is at Risk!

While going over some Relative Rotation Graphs showing the rotations for individual stocks, the tail for AMD in the Technology sector caught my attention. AMD was one of the leading tech stocks from July to early September, almost doubling in price, but then started to fade in terms of relative...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Explosive Move in Stock/Bond Ratio Coming?

Sector Spotlight: Explosive Move in Stock/Bond Ratio Coming?

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I look at last week's performance and rotations for asset classes and stock sectors. After the break, I move on to share my views on various levels of the investment pyramid, highlighting the possibility for an explosive move in the stock/bond...   READ MORE 

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DISH is a New Short in the RRG L/S Basket

DISH is a New Short in the RRG L/S Basket

From time to time, I present Long/Short or Pair Trading ideas in my weekly Sector Spotlight show on StockCharts TV. During the past few months, I have started to track these ideas as a portfolio. This is by no means an advisory service or a model portfolio of any...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: RRG L/S Basket Update

Sector Spotlight: RRG L/S Basket Update

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I cover rotational developments over the last two weeks for asset classes and sectors. After that, I take a look at the current positions in the Long/Short basket, which is up well over 10% since March. This video was originally broadcast on October...   READ MORE 

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ADBE Setting Up For a New Rally

ADBE Setting Up For a New Rally

The chart above shows the daily price bars for ADBE, in combination with the RRG-Lines and raw Relative Strength. There are two reasons to use this chart today. The first is to make sure all of you are aware of the rapid further development of the new ACP platform here...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Tech & Comm Rally Into October

Sector Spotlight: Tech & Comm Rally Into October

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, with September drawing to an end, I dive into the monthly seasonality, finding some very interesting seasonal patterns for Technology and Communication Services on the one hand and Energy and Health Care on the other. History suggests a 2% out-performance for Technology in October,...   READ MORE 

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Short Term Rotations Put XLC and XLK Back in Favor Again on Relative Rotation Graph

Short Term Rotations Put XLC and XLK Back in Favor Again on Relative Rotation Graph

The erratic rotations that we discussed last week are still ongoing. Looking back at the rotational action on the RRG for US sectors last week shows that the focus of investors is shifting back to Technology and Communication Services again. Despite being inside the lagging quadrant, XLK showed the strongest...   READ MORE 

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What Does It Mean When Sectors Fly All Over the Place?

What Does It Mean When Sectors Fly All Over the Place?

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation for US sectors on a daily basis over roughly the last two weeks. The most important observation that we can make from this image is that the rotation currently is very erratic. The tails do not last very long in one quadrant...   READ MORE 

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Breaking Down the Dow Jones Composite Index

Breaking Down the Dow Jones Composite Index

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are probably the most discussed charts/indexes. The Dow Jones Industrials is probably the most well known index. From an RRG point of view, the breakdown of the S&P 500 into its sectors is probably the most-watched RRG. But,...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Erratic Rotation Signals Uncertainty

Sector Spotlight: Erratic Rotation Signals Uncertainty

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I spend the show talking about current market rotations. I begin with the overview of last week's rotations in asset classes and US sectors, then switch to weekly charts to step away from the erratic daily rotations; this way, I can get...   READ MORE 

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Daily Rotations Look Erratic

Daily Rotations Look Erratic

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation for US sectors on a daily basis at the start of this new week (20.09.21). The most important observation that we can make from this image is that the rotation currently is very erratic. The tails do not last very...   READ MORE 

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Is the Technology Sector at Risk?

Is the Technology Sector at Risk?

At yesterday's close XLK, the technology sector, rotated into the lagging quadrant. This happened a few times since the market started to rally out of the March low. On the daily chart to be exact. On the weekly RRG, XLK remained far to the right inside the leading...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: A Full Mailbag

Sector Spotlight: A Full Mailbag

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I present the usual look at the rotations for Asset Classes and US Sectors via Relative Rotation Graphs. In addition, the better part of the show is spent on answering questions from the mailbag. These questions range from slowing down animations on RRGs to...   READ MORE 

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XLC and XLK Continue to Lose Relative Strength, Which is Picked Up by the Rest of the Market

XLC and XLK Continue to Lose Relative Strength, Which is Picked Up by the Rest of the Market

Last week, the rotations for the Communication Services and Technology sectors continued on their trajectory deeper into the weakening quadrant, heading towards lagging. As always with relative strength, one sector's loss is another sector's gain - or, in this case three sectors' losses are the...   READ MORE 

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Are We Just Coming Out of a Full Recession?

Are We Just Coming Out of a Full Recession?

With markets flying everywhere from day to day, I want to take a step back in this article and look at the bigger economic cycle picture, in order to see if we can fit things into the "Sector Rotation Model" as it can bee seen under the PerfCharts....   READ MORE 

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Where Is All That Money Going To?

Where Is All That Money Going To?

Last week's selloff primarily hit some mega-cap names in Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks. For sure, it shook up markets pretty well and, as usual, the selling of risk assets led to an inflow into risk-off assets like bonds and more defensive sectors. Another ways of breaking...   READ MORE 

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Sector Spotlight: Long/Short Basket Up 8%

Sector Spotlight: Long/Short Basket Up 8%

In this edition of Sector Spotlight, I break down the events of last week's volatile price action and how that translates into the tails on the Relative Rotation Graphs; I then put these price moves into a slightly longer-term perspective. Julius also dives into the Long/Short baskets,...   READ MORE 

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Seasonality Expects a Decline For SPY in September and an Underperformance for Technology

Seasonality Expects a Decline For SPY in September and an Underperformance for Technology

Last Tuesday in Sector Spotlight, as well as in my last article of the RRG blog, I discussed seasonality for US sectors. While going over the table showing the average returns per sector per month, my eye fell on another number... the minus-one percent (-1%) for the Technology sector. This...   READ MORE