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Sector Spotlight: Rotation to Utilities Signals Caution for S&P 500
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this week's edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I share my thoughts on potential developments for the S&P 500. First, from an asset allocation perspective, I focus on the development of the USD and interest rates in relation to the stock market. Then,...
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Combining RRG with the Turtle Soup Scan is Now More Powerful
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Since my introductory article on the topic, 2018's "Combining Relative Rotation Graphs and the "Turtle Soup" setup", I have mentioned and used this strategy a few times in my articles and analyses. The main goal has been to combine the power of RRG and...
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Sector Spotlight: End of Downtrend ≠ New Uptrend
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this week's edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I take a look at recent rotations in asset classes and sectors. The recent strength for stocks over bonds at asset class level is clear, but the rotational picture for the weekly and daily time frames is...
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Only Two Sectors are Leading the Charge
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, there are only two sectors that are leading the market higher. Not surprisingly, these are growth-related sectors, specifically XLK and XLY, which together make up 40% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index.
In last Tuesday's...
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Sector Spotlight: Sectors Kissing Resistance
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this week's edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I start with a look at Growth/Value and Size (Large-, Mid-, and Small-Cap) rotations. After that, I take an extensive look at the rotations of Offensive, Defensive and Sensitive sectors and their individual charts. The common...
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Disconnected EW Sector Rotation Offers Opportunities
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
From time to time, I compare the rotations of the SPDR sectors that we usually use with their EW counterparts.
The first RRG below shows the rotations for the SPDR sector spiders (cap-weighted). The second RRG shows the rotations of the Equal Weight sectors. In both, the Energy sector is...
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Sector Spotlight: Downside Risk Beats Upside Potential
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this week's edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I start with a look at the current state of Sector Rotation in US stocks. (Normally, I review seasonal patterns in sectors every last Tuesday of the month, but, last week, that segment had to make place...
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Are You a Short-Term Trader? Watch This!
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) were introduced on StockCharts.com in July 2014. Since then, we have had the possibility to render the charts using weekly or daily data. Primarily, I think, because those were the time frames I was, and am, using most of the time for myself and in...
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Sector Spotlight: Bouncing Bonds and Intraday RRGs
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
This edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight marks an important milestone in the life of RRG on StockCharts.com. Following many user requests, the latest release of new functionalities and improvements (Bainbridge) of the website includes the support for intraday time frames on Relative Rotation Graphs. This addition...
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5 Interesting Industries In Industrials
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this article, I'd like to dig a bit deeper into the Industrial sector.
Starting at the sector level, we find the tail for XLI inside the weakening quadrant and moving towards lagging. So definitely not one of the better sectors. As a matter of fact, it'...
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Sector Spotlight: Growth Takes Over (for Now)
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I assess the current rotation in asset classes and sectors, highlighting the rotation for commodities, which are going through a setback but are likely to come back as the leading asset class. In equity sectors, I'm seeing an...
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Sector Rotation (Model) vs Seasonality
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Those of you who regularly watch Sector Spotlight on StockchartsTV will know that I have a few segments that come back on a regular basis.
Every last Tuesday of the month I discuss the seasonality for sectors going into the new month to see if the historical seasonal pattern aligns...
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Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation Model Says It's Not Over Yet
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, after an update on the current rotations for various asset classes, I look at the sector rotation model and and try to make an assessment on where, and which phase, we currently are in the market cycle. I evaluate the...
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This Industry Group is Facing 60% Downside Risk
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The chart above is the monthly chart for the materials sector $SPM, which I discussed in this week's episode of Sector Spotlight while going through the completed monthly charts for June.
Materials Sector Completing Big Top Formation
$SPM especially stands out, as the sector very clearly completed a...
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Sector Spotlight: Bonds Drop, Money Leaves Materials Sector
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, to kick off the month of July, I dive into the status of the long-term trends as they are unfolding on the monthly charts. The main message from the asset classes is that the bond market is clear: Corporate- and...
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Money Rotating Out of Insurance Groups is Splitting The Financials Sector in Two
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Financial sector qualifies as an offensive, or cyclical, sector, together with Consumer Discretionary, Real-Estate and Materials.
On the Relative Rotation Graph for sectors, XLF is showing up inside the lagging quadrant, signaling a relative downtrend vs. the benchmark (SPY). It is interesting to see that XLF is the only...
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Isn't That Beautiful?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Yes, Technical Analysis can be (very) subjective at times. Different (types of) investors interpret charts differently. And yes, more quant-based technical approaches can make interpretation of charts or time series less subjective. Personally, I am probably somewhere in the middle of the spectrum.
BUT, looking at the chart of the...
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Sector Spotlight: Sector Rotation Out of Energy Stocks
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, for this last Tuesday of the month, I take a look at seasonal sector rotation and try to align that with the current reality to see if meaningful matches can be found. For this month, four sectors are providing potentially...
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The Battle Between Musk & Ma
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Following the recent bounce in the stock market, predominantly driven by growth stocks, I wanted to investigate the rotations within the NYFANG+ index (or should it be NYMANA, nowadays?). This is a group of mega-cap stocks from the technology, consumer discretionary and communication services sectors.
When we look at the...
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Sector Spotlight: When Defensive Sectors Break Support...
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I kick off the show by answering two questions from the mailbag. I then move on to the current rotation of asset classes, observing that a more pronounced pause in the turnaround for commodities seems imminent. Meanwhile, signals suggesting a...
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One Lone Ranger Inside the Technology Sector
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In my previous article, as well as in Tuesday's Sector Spotlight show, I touched on using Relative Rotation Graphs for gauging market breadth, showing this combination chart.
This image combines 12 Relative Rotation Graphs using $ONE as the benchmark, and it tells me, and I hope you as...
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Sector Spotlight: Tracking the Stock Market Slide on RRG
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I jump right into the rotations for asset classes and sectors. At asset class level, the only things that go up in price are commodities; the USD has made a strong move and is back on track. Meanwhile, both stocks...
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Sector Rotation At Cross Roads, Defense Likely To Take Back The Lead.
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Weekly
The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors is arriving at an important juncture.
For months the defensive sectors have been the leading segment in the S&P, even before the peak was reached Utilities, Staples, and Healthcare started leading the market from a relative perspective. These sectors were...
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Sector Spotlight: Real Estate Has Peaked
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, after addressing seasonality and monthly charts in last week's episode, I go back to talking you through the current rotations in Asset Classes and Sectors. The big picture is still for stocks going through a temporary recovery within...
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Defense Still Leads With a Pocket Of Strength in Commodity Chemicals
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Breaking down the US sector universe into three groups (as opposed to two) -- Offensive/Cyclical, Defensive and Sensitive -- shows the current rotations as seen in the Relative Rotation Graphs above.
It is pretty clear, IMHO, that the defensive group (still) stands out. All three sectors -- Consumer Staples,...
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Sector Spotlight: 62% of the Market is Now in a Downtrend
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I begin with an update on current rotations in asset classes and sectors, highlighting continued strength for defensive sectors. As this Tuesday (5/31) is both the last Tuesday of the month (of May) and the end of the month,...
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Massive Top Formation Completed
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
If there is one chart we should be watching at the moment, it should be, IMHO, the ratio between Growth and Value stocks.
The image above shows this relation on a weekly chart going back 15 years. After a multi-year rising trend and an almost exponential acceleration in 2019-2020, a...
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Value Knocks Out Growth
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The RRG below shows the tails for the DJ Growth and -Value indexes against the DJ US index. In January of this year, the Value tail crossed over into the leading quadrant while, at the same time, Growth crossed into the lagging quadrant.
After a strong stint, the tails started...
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Sector Spotlight: It's Just a Bounce for Now
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I talk you through the rotations for asset classes and sectors as they are currently unfolding. At asset class level, the improvement for fixed-income-related assets is worth noticing, as it is pushing stocks (SPY) down and into the lagging quadrant...
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The US is Dragging Stock Markets Around the World Lower
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
For a bird's eye view of developments in international stock markets, I use a Relative Rotation Graph that shows the rotations for a group of international stock indexes.
The RRG below shows the weekly rotation for this group. You can find this under the pre-defined groups in the...
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Sector Spotlight: Bottom-Fishing with RRG
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I very briefly touch on the rotation for asset classes, then spends a bit more time on sectors. I highlight how defensive sectors are still in the driving seat, but also alerting that one sector that could come up as...
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Is $ONE the Better Benchmark to Use With Relative Rotation Graphs?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Following my article "Which Stocks Inside The Dow Are Worth Holding?", I received a few questions on using $ONE as the benchmark for a Relative Rotation Graph and whether it would be the better benchmark to use. The honest answer to that question?
It depends.
Let Me Explain...
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Sector Spotlight: 50% Of Market Cap is Lagging SPY
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, after looking at seasonality and long-term monthly charts in the last two episodes, I dive deep into the current sector rotation as it is playing out in the S&P 500 at the moment. The most important takeaway is...
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USD Strength Continues with EUR/USD Arriving at Critical Junction
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph that shows the rotation for currencies against the USD as the base is sending us a very clear picture!
USD Strength
The graph holds the G10 currencies. As we are plotting against the USD base, it means that there are nine tails on the canvas and...
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140 (XLK) And 160 (XLY) Are The Crucial Levels To Watch
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The current sector rotation still shows all defensive sectors inside the leading quadrant, albeit with a slight loss of relative momentum (JdK RS-Momentum scale). Nevertheless, the relative uptrends in those sectors are still intact.
Consumer Staples
Relative strength of the staples sector vs. SPY is in a clear pattern of...
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Sector Spotlight: Monthly Charts Resting at Support
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, for this first Tuesday for the month of May, I review the completed monthly charts for April. This process takes up almost the entire show, so you will get a thorough feel for what's going on at the...
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Which Stocks Inside the DOW Are Worth Holding?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
With the general market going through a rough time at the moment, it makes sense to see if we can find pockets that are worth watching and potentially holding in portfolios.
For this occasion, I am using the DJ Industrials universe.
As you know Relative Rotation Graphs are based on...
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Sector Spotlight: Financials at Risk
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, as it is the last Tuesday of the month, I bring in my analysis of the seasonal patterns for sectors for the new month (of May) and try to align them with the current rotations as I see them unfolding...
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How to Ride Out the Bear Market
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
How can we ride out this bear market? Before we can answer that question, we first have to define what qualifies as a bear market. Very often, a decline of 20% or more from the most recent high is used as a yardstick to define a bear market. That seems...
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GOOGL On Track for $2000 Once This Support Level Breaks
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
When I brought up the Relative Rotation Graph showing the NYFANG components against $SPX, I made a few interesting observations.
In general, the rotation of almost all tails looks horrible. They are either already inside the lagging quadrant (and) at a negative RRG-Heading, or rotating back to lagging. The two...
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