* Dollar Diffusion Gives a Buy Signal * Differential Interest Rates Turn Bullish for the Dollar * $NYA and $COMPQ Drop Below Their 200-Day MAs One would think that a record trade deficit would be bearish for the dollar. However, the market does not agree, as the Invesco Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP) just... READ MORE
* Strong Broadly-Based Rally * NYSE Declining Peaks and Troughs Still in Force * Several Short-Term Indicators Starting to Point South Strong Broadly-Based Rally The rally dating from Christmas Eve has been a powerful one, generating an approximate 20% gain from its low. It has also been broad, not only enabling the NYSE... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Secular Uptrend Line is Still Intact * If China Rallies, Will It Take Commodities Along for the Ride? * China vs. Hong Kong * Chinese ETFs Experiencing a Reversal Shanghai Composite Secular Uptrend Line is Still Intact Chart 1 features a really important benchmark for the Shanghai Composite - a secular... READ MORE
* Superior Breadth Over Price Does Not Always Have a Positive Outcome * Weighted versus Equal Weight Chart 1 shows that the NYSE A/D Line touched a new high last week and seems to be leading the S&P higher. The textbooks tell us that a broad advance, such as... READ MORE
* Dollar About to Break New Ground? * Euro Starting to Break Down * Swiss Franc at a Major Juncture Point * The Fortunes of the Canadian, Australian and EM Currencies are Tied to Commodities Dollar About to Break New Ground? I last wrote about the dollar at the end of January, pointing out... READ MORE
* Three Major Averages are at their 200-Day MAs * The NYSE Has Been Declining for a Year * Will There Be Another Whipsaw? Today, of course, is the State of the Union Address, but for the markets it might well be the “State of the 200-Day Moving Average,” as that’s the... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For February is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Trend for Commodities Remains Bearish * What the Stock Market is Telling Us About Commodities * Short-Term Picture Not So Strong Recently, we have seen several reports of a weakening economy. These include a sharp drop in both the University of Michigan and Conference Board consumer sentiment and confidence numbers,... READ MORE
* Long-Term Trend Still Points South * It Would be Unusual Not to Experience a Test of the December Low * Dollar ETF Breaking Out? Last week, I pointed out that the major averages were running into resistance at a moment when they were moderately overbought. At the time, some form of a... READ MORE
* Averages Reach Resistance * Selected Emerging Markets Starting to Look Interesting Last week, I wrote that, while my view on the primary trend remained bearish, I thought the lows established a couple of weeks or so ago stood a good chance of holding for a while. That view was based on... READ MORE
* Short/Intermediate Oversold Condition * High-Low Data Reaches an Extreme * The Bear is Still With Us Until It Isn’t As we all know, markets have a strong tendency to swing from excessive optimism to extremes of pessimism. During the last month, we have certainly seen a substantial amount of pessimism... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For January is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* Two Failed Outside Bars * Long-Term Indicators Tipping to the Bullish Side * Gold and the Shares Perking Up Against Equities in General * Silver Setting Up for a Possible Major Breakout Just before Christmas, I pointed out that the gold price, especially the shares, had experienced an outside day. Going by that... READ MORE
In my December Market Roundup webinar, I touched on the idea that the economy had begun to seriously slow down. Wednesday’s Fed action, actual and potential for next year, will amplify that process. The equity markets are obviously paying attention, but the increased probability of higher rates and a... READ MORE
* The Market Remains Oversold * More Trend Damage Triggered * Key Ratios Have Just Broken to New Lows As a kid, I used to love building sand castles and defending them against the ensuing wave action. If the tide was coming in, however, it always proved to be a fool’s errand... READ MORE
* Pinocchio Lies * Oversold Sentiment Indicators * Oversold Oscillators Pinocchio Lies Monday’s action was what I call “scary bullish.” First, we saw prices sell-off sharply, only to then rebound as if nothing had happened. Well, something did happen - the formation of a bullish Pinocchio bar on several Indexes. Chart 1... READ MORE
* The Secular Bear Market in Yields * Near-Term Indications of a Decline in Bond Yields * Watch That Stock/Bond Relationship for an Important Signal The Secular Bear Market in Yields Please note that the comments in this article relate to bond yields with maturities of 3-years or longer. They do not... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For December is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* Housing Starts are Rolling Over * The Trend of Margin Debt is Bearish The NYSE Margin and the housing sector do not have much in common beyond the fact that both gave sell signals in October. Neither development bodes well for the recovery of the stock market. Let’s take a... READ MORE
* Indexes on the Brink * Confidence Relationships Starting to Break Down * Watch the Stock/Bond Ratio Indexes on the Brink More than once a week, I make sure to check several ratios that tell me whether investors and traders are getting more or less confident. These relationships, which we will get... READ MORE
* Commodities in General Remain in a Bear Market * Oil is Also in a Primary Bear Market * The Chart That Says That Some Kind of Bottom is at Hand I last wrote about oil back in early August, in an article entitled More Evidence Of A Commodity Bear Market. Back then,... READ MORE
* Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline * Hourly Charts Offer the First Domino * Short-Term Breadth is Overstretched * NASDAQ Sports a Series of Declining Peaks and Troughs Indexes Reach Resistance and Retrace 61.8% of the Decline The market has been on a tear for the last couple... READ MORE
* The Long-Term Picture * Price Action Characteristics are Bearish * Gold Share Breadth is Negative * The Now or Never Chart The Long-Term Picture Gold was in a secular bull market between 2001 and 2011. It then sold off into 2014 and has been essentially range bound ever since. Chart 1 shows that... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For November is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* Key moving averages violated in October * The world peaked in January * What happened to sectors and breadth? * February versus October conclusion * Those pesky bonds Key Moving Averages Violated in October So far, 2018 has seen two sharp shakeouts in the market, specifically the ten-day special in early February and the... READ MORE
* A few observations about the secular trend * Short-term technical position * Junk bonds peak out * Credit spreads argue for lower government yields A Few Observations About the Secular Trend The 5-year yield, shown in Chart 1, has formed and broken out from a major base. It touched a low point in... READ MORE
* Internet bubble * Credit spreads * Rising interest rates * Contagion from abroad On Wednesday, I joined Tom and Erin on MarketWatchers LIVE and enjoyed a spirited discussion on what signs might foreshadow an extension to last week’s decline, or even signal a bear market. The four areas I cited were the... READ MORE
* The big global picture * US equities are violating key trend lines * Financials experience false upside breakout * Energy triggers a false positive * Bubble-prone e-commerce on the verge of being pricked! Last week, I wrote about the possibility of an October “surprise.” I pointed out that such an event is completely random... READ MORE
* The US market viewed from abroad * Resource based sectors in general are under-performing * Defensive sectors are generally improving * Ratio between a late and early performing sector is at a critical juncture Back in August I wrote an article pointing out that we might be in the early stages of a... READ MORE
* Conditions that feed a crash * Rising rates * Emerging markets could be the triggering mechanism * Market breadth not so hot * Is the e-commerce bubble bursting? Conditions that feed a crash October started off as just a continuation of September’s dull price activity. However, knowing that the month of October has... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences a false downside breakout * Euro encounters a false upside breakout * Yen completes a bearish multi-year continuation formation * Swiss franc completes a broadening wedge Back in mid-September, I wrote an article where I pointed out that the Dollar was on a knife edge. This view was based on... READ MORE
The Market Roundup Video For October is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* The connection between lumber and housing starts * What the homebuilding ETF’s are saying Nonfarm payrolls are an economic series that is widely followed by the investment community. However, it’s a coincident indicator, meaning it tells you what is going on now, not what might happen in the future.... READ MORE
* Long-term dollar technical position * Short-term picture bearish outcome * Short-term picture bullish outcome * Euro * Yen * Swiss franc Long-term dollar technical position I have been primary trend bullish on the dollar for several months. That opinion still stands because the Dollar Index is well above its 12-month MA and its long-term KST... READ MORE
* A few thoughts on bubbles * Technical comments on the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index * China on the brink A few thoughts on bubbles Last week, I pointed out that most of the FAANG stocks remained in uptrends, with the possible exception of Netflix and the confirmed bear market in Facebook.... READ MORE
* NASDAQ breadth data offers conflicting signals * Bullish FAANG Stocks * De-fanged stock NASDAQ breadth data offering conflicting signals We have seen some attention paid to tech stocks as they have corrected in the last week or so. The so called FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Netflix) have been... READ MORE
The MarketRoundup Video For September is now available. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion ofPring Turner Capital Groupof Walnut Creek or its affiliates.... READ MORE
* US Equities versus the world * Stocks versus Commodities * Stocks and bonds * Stocks compared to gold There are lots of seasonal reasons to be bearish on the stock market, such as September being the weakest month and mid-term election years having a downward bias. However, if you compare the S&... READ MORE
* The longer-term picture argues for lower yields * Deflationary forces gain the upper hand * Bond yields at crucial short-term support * UK Yields in a life or death struggle The longer-term picture argues for lower yields Earlier in the month I wrote an article pointing out that many bond yields had reached... READ MORE
* Commodities starting to generate some long-term sell signals * Internals and commodity intermarket relationships are deteriorating * Energy has been lagging on the downside but may be ready to play catch up Earlier in the summer I wrote a couple of articles on copper and oil suggesting some short-term vulnerability, but concluding... READ MORE