* Technical position for yields still looks bullish * International rates look higher * Dollar breaks out, but will it hold? * Finely balanced Gold picture needs some guidance from the Dollar If you have punched up the symbol $TNX, you will know that the 10-year yield has recently hit 3%. Chances are that... READ MORE
* The primary trend * The short-term picture * The Dollar, Copper and Gold The Dollar Index showed some green shoots at the end of the week that might lead to greater things. That’s important in its own right, but since the dollar often moves inversely with commodities and gold its direction... READ MORE
* Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled * Breath indicators are firming up Bearish engulfing pattern and outside day are cancelled Last week I wrote that many of the short-term indicators were flashing buy signals and that we should expect the US equity market to work its way higher. I... READ MORE
* A small correction ahead? * Short-term oscillators are primed for a rally * Bitcoin is breaking out again A small correction ahead? If you want to be bullish, Friday’s technical action was somewhat disappointing. That’s because it represented an engulfing pattern for the DIA, as shown in Chart 1. Chart... READ MORE
* The technical position of small caps in general * Small cap sectors The technical position of small caps in general Small caps, as represented by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), have outperformed the market since late March and have now broken out in their own right. We can see this from... READ MORE
* The importance of identifying the direction of the primary trend * The Shiller P/E * The four-way test The importance of identifying the primary trend Sometimes it’s a good idea to step back from the everyday trading of daily charts and short-term activity and look at the big picture. If... READ MORE
* Positive breadth characteristics * VIX is less fearful * Short-term oscillators starting to get extremely oversold * How about trend? Last week I suggested that the market may be in the process of forming a double bottom. This week we take that possibility one step forward. Whenever the non-financial cable networks run a... READ MORE
Here is a link to the April edition of Market Round Up for 2018. Martin-Pring-Market-Roundup-April-2018 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of Pring... READ MORE
* Is the market forming a double bottom? * Short-term indicators suggest the bottoming process is nearly complete Sometimes a technical event or characteristic becomes very popular very quickly as a lot of people write and blog about them. Usually, the expectations based on those forecasts are not met. For example, every... READ MORE
* Breadth is more of a positive than a negative factor * Global breadth is also positive * Dow Diffusion Indicator close to a buy signal * Consumer cyclicals versus technology Since early February, the US equity market, in the form of the NYSE Composite, has been in a trading range. This is flagged... READ MORE
* Longer-term perspective * Short-term Charts * Dollar trying to break to the upside Longer-term perspective At its December 18 peak of $18,723, the Bitcoin Index ($NYXBT) outstripped all other bull markets in recorded history. By this yardstick alone this phenomenon qualifies as a mania. So far, the post high, low water... READ MORE
* The indicated main trend is currently bearish * What a more broadly-based Dollar index is saying * Swiss Franc completes a small top * Copper and the Dollar The indicated main trend is currently bearish The Dollar Index peaked in November 2016 and has so far bottomed in January of this year. If... READ MORE
* Two bullish piercing white lines * A sector spread that predicts new stock market highs * Two sectors affected by the proposed tariffs Last week I wrote that the indicators seemed to be calling for a test of the early February low. My expectation was for a sharper and more prolonged decline... READ MORE
Here is the market analysis reviewing the current market outlook. There is a host of information on commodities, bonds and US equities. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-03-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Chartcon 2018 registration is now open! Registration kicked off today, February 1st! Chartcon 2018! Follow the link... READ MORE
* US is breaking out relative to the world * Growth breaks decisively against value * Blue Tuesday US is breaking out relative to the world Chart 1 shows that the ratio between the US stock market, in the form of the S&P Composite ($SPX), and the World Index (ACWI) often... READ MORE
* General market thoughts * Sectors under pressure * Stronger looking sectors General market thoughts My thoughts on the recent correction is that we have likely seen the low, that more ranging action is likely, probably involving a test of that low, but that eventually US equities will see new bull market highs.... READ MORE
* Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows * European equities are facing a big challenge * Shanghai starting to look sick Pinocchio argues for a test of the lows Last week I suggested that the S&P had reached a resistance zone following its bounce from the early February panic... READ MORE
* Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed * S&P is at short-term resistance * Some reliable short-term indicators not quite there yet * Yen breaks out from a large base Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed After five straight up days since the February 9 intraday... READ MORE
* Bottoms are being “hammered” out * VIX is quietening down * Net new highs offer green shoots * NASDAQ Chart is turning Bottoms are being “hammered” out It has certainly been a wild ride this week, but Friday saw several major indexes trace out a Japanese candlestick pattern known as a “hammer”. This... READ MORE
* Bullish piercing white line * Bullish volume * VIX signaling volatility retreating again Bullish piercing white line Tuesday’s market action suggests that the selling squall is over, at least for the time being. That’s because a couple of indexes experienced a bullish candlestick pattern known as a piercing white line.... READ MORE
* Primary trend indicators are still bullish * Short-term indicators still overbought * Very short-term indicators already at extremes * Bonds bottoming short-term? I have been saying for some time that the market’s primary trend is a bullish one and that we should not get hung up with short-term corrections. That theory is... READ MORE
* Big changes in all four areas * Equities * Commodities * Currencies * Bonds This months market roundup has a lot of charts that are breaking out on long term relative strength breakouts. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-02-01 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Chartcon 2018 registration is now open! Registration kicked off today,... READ MORE
* The underlying trend of improving confidence continues * Several indicators are pointing to some kind of a correction * Small caps are lagging The underlying trend of improving confidence continues The longer-term indicators monitoring the primary trend of the US stock market continue to point north. So too, do the various confidence... READ MORE
* Dollar experiences a short-term reversal * Commodities are in a bull market but adversely affected near-term * Gold showing signs of tiredness but still within a base building process Dollar experiences a short-term reversal It’s a funny thing in markets, when you have just grown comfortable with a move, it sometimes... READ MORE
* Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails * These confidence ratios are breaking to the upside and that’s bullish for stocks Last week’s bearish dark cloud cover fails Last week I pointed out that many of the principal indexes had traced out bearish dark cloud cover candlestick patterns.... READ MORE
* Dark cloud cover explained * What enhances a dark cloud signal * How long is its bearish effect likely to last? Dark cloud cover explained The weather forecast this morning was for wintery weather on the East Coast. However, a more sobering non-meteorological message has been given by the stock market. Tuesday’... READ MORE
* CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance * Key intermarket relationships starting to point in an inflationary direction * Inter-asset ratios also confirm the inflationary scenario * Euro breaks to the upside CRB Composite nudging through mega resistance Late last month I wrote about several charts I was watching for a possible breakout in... READ MORE
* Basic changes in long-term momentum * The five-year maturity is signalling an end to the secular decline in yields * Twenty-year yield showing signs of basing * Ten-year attacking mega down trend line * From a short-term aspect bond prices look vulnerable * Utilities about to crash? Basic changes in long-term momentum Since the beginning... READ MORE
This months Market Roundup live video has a lot of information on the bond market. The six-stage cycle is currently in Stage 3. This large overview shows some of the major macro trends that are breaking right now. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2018-01-03 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good... READ MORE
Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market * Dollar sympathy indicators are close to a major breakdown * Canadian and Aussie dollars are driven by commodity prices * Emerging Market ETF benefiting from a weaker dollar Dollar Index is in a confirmed bear market As 2018 begins to unfold the Dollar Index... READ MORE
* 10-year bond yields could be in the process of a secular reversal. * What odds is the S. Korean ETF placing on the breakout of war? * China has gone uncharacteristically quiet. Is this the quiet before the storm? * CRB Composite just below mega resistance As we approach 2018 I thought it... READ MORE
* What message is the yield curve giving? * Secular reversal in short-term bond yields is being signalled * Energy sector breaks to the upside * Energy strength may breathe life into the CRB Composite What message is the yield curve giving? Despite what you may be reading, the yield curve is not forecasting... READ MORE
* General thoughts on the discounting process * Short-term indicators poised for, but not yet signalling a decline General thoughts on the discounting process There is an old adage on Wall Street to the effect that traders should, in the case of war, sell the rumor and buy on the sound of... READ MORE
* 18-month ROC is literally off the charts * Bitcoin and short- term momentum * Comparing Bitcoin to the Bitcoin Trust * Conclusion * Links to videos on Bitcoin 18-month ROC is literally off the charts There are two Bitcoin directly related vehicles that are available on the StockCharts platform. These are the NYSE Bitcoin... READ MORE
This months Market Roundup highlights the three main assets of bonds, commodities and stocks. Rotations between these asset classes can help find major secular moves. This month shows multiple trends changing. Market Roundup With Martin Pring 2017-12-06 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good luck and good charting, Martin J. Pring... READ MORE
* Gold leads commodities * Gold, gold shares and silver complete head and shoulder patterns * Two confidence ratios are forecasting lower gold prices * Commodities headed lower Gold leads commodities Chart 1 compares the price of gold to commodities in the form of the CRB Composite. The green shaded areas represent rally periods... READ MORE
* Oil experiences a major upside breakout * Overstretched energy markets on a short-term basis * Where oil goes commodities in general often follow I recently came across a commitment of traders hedgers chart that shows a record low short position. Now it’s true that since the 1990’s there has been... READ MORE
* Small Caps breaking out * Gold and Silver may be close to a resolution to their recent rangebound activity * Euro in a real dilemma but with a bullish bias In sorting through a number of charts I recently came across some potential price patterns that are developing in several key markets.... READ MORE
The long-term picture * Is the stock market smarter than the commodity market? * Commodity indexes short-term overbought The long-term picture Since mid-summer, commodity prices reflected in broadly based indexes such as the CRB ($CRB), Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) or the DB Commodity ETF (DBC) have been on a tear. However, short-term... READ MORE
Growth versus value and a possible mega breakout favoring growth * The technology/staples ratio supports the growth/value breakout * Some credit spreads are looking shaky * Are stocks finally breaking against commodities? Growth versus value and a possible mega-breakout favoring growth Chart 1 compares the performance of the S&P... READ MORE