* Could it be 1987 deja-vu all over again? * Why it’s not 1987 * Conclusion A savvy subscriber to my monthly Intermarket Review sent me a copy of Chart 1 yesterday. Whenever he forwards me a relationship in chart format, it is usually pointing out a different conclusion than that set... READ MORE
Rationale for the Special K At my Chartcon presentation, I outlined the characteristics and uses of my Special K indicator and introduced a new advanced scan for identifying trading signals. I’ll talk about that, as well as how you can set up such scans later, but first a rationale... READ MORE
* Major stock averages are at major support * Stocks or bonds? * What about the rest of the world? * Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I... READ MORE
* Broadening formation is still bullish * What are the short-term indicators saying? * What are important intermarket relationships saying about the recent drop? * Is Dr. Copper about to make a house call? On balance, the stock market has dropped since early last week, but peripheral price action has been constructive. That leads... READ MORE
The long-term picture A couple of weeks ago I started to make the case for rising rates, based partly on the kind of price action featured in Chart 1. However, what was needed to reverse some of the longer term trends of falling yields and rising prices in the credit... READ MORE
* Two possible scenarios for commodities * The primary trend picture * Commodity breadth * What’s the bond market saying? Two possible scenarios for commodities The last time I wrote about commodities my comments had a bullish slant. The CRB Composite ($CRB), having experienced an approximate 8-week correction involving a successful test of... READ MORE
* Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates * What are the short-term technicals saying about rates? * High versus low beta Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates Last week I wrote that the vast majority of long-term stock market indicators were... READ MORE
* More corrective activity to come? * Are we there yet with Dow Theory? * Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That... READ MORE
* The Six Stages * Characteristics of Stage IV * The stock market’s view on commodities * All that glitters The Six Stages In the latest bi-weekly Market Round Up Webinar I looked at several inter-asset relationships to see which ones are likely to outperform going forward (watch the webinar here). To start... READ MORE
* The S&P 500 versus the world * If things go against the US, where would be a good place to be? * A true contrarian play The S&P 500 versus the world For several years the US stock market has been outperforming the rest of the world in... READ MORE
Two charts that may soon look to the bullish side for rates Short-term technicals Watch those metals In the last 35 years, analysts and investors have gotten used to seeing ever lower rates, even negative ones in Europe and Japan. It seems to me that things may be getting out... READ MORE
* Short-term technicals * Two indicators that have not yet gone bullish * More base building by commodities * Oil greasing the way? Last week we looked at some of the longer-term equity indicators. I concluded that prices were likely to work their way significantly higher for the balance of the year, despite historically... READ MORE
* The long-term trend * Shorter-term aspects * The stock market’s view Several weeks ago I suggested that commodity prices were likely to experience a correction of some kind. I also felt that any digestive process might well take the form of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern... READ MORE
* More long-term US Equity indicators turning bullish * The case for a spirited rally * Testing the theory At my webinar last week I pointed out a couple of observations on the US equity market. First, that more and more indicators are signaling a bull market. Second, there are some characteristics that... READ MORE
* The Dollar Index-too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro * A closer look at the long-term cross Dollar relationships * What are the Dollar sympathy indicators saying? * Short-term technicals The Dollar Index - Too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro A few months ago I declared the Dollar Index to... READ MORE
* Whipsaw leads to sharp rally * Global equity markets starting to heat up * Broad sector participation * What’s going on with the yield curve? Whipsaw leads to sharp rally Chart 1 compares the Dow ETF (DIA) with my Dow Diffusion Indicator, an oscillator that monitors a basket of Dow Stocks above... READ MORE
* Take a deep 'breadth' * Broadening formations * Long-term indicators support an upside breakout The recent breakout by the S&P and Dow to new high ground has caught the attention of market observers. Some say that the market is overvalued and that prices are unlikely to move higher.... READ MORE
* Labor market crystal ball * What are the credit markets saying * Commodities ripe for a correction? Labor market crystal ball The weakness of last month’s Employment Report was a surprise to just about everyone, including yours truly. One month doesn’t make a trend, but two months of bad data... READ MORE
* Low momentum close to price highs is often followed by above-average declines * Failed patterns are often followed by above average price moves * Those credit spreads are widening again Last week I wrote that there were some positive short-term signs that suggested the reaction to Brexit might be overdone. Monday’s... READ MORE
* Selling climax at the opening * UK versus European Monetary Union * What are global equities saying? * What’s up with the pound? Selling climax at the opening There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market does not discount the same thing twice. Back in early June, we saw... READ MORE
* Stocks show signs of a near-term reversal * What about those bonds? * Gold showing signs of tiredness Stocks show signs of near-term reversal On Thursday, several markets started off strongly in one direction but by the end of the day, these same markets reversed course. Normally when one market or an... READ MORE
* Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear * Rates are starting to breakdown * Keep watching those credit spreads Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear In my last article, I pointed out that most of the short-term oscillators were in a bullish configuration. Moreover, they were not... READ MORE
* Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish * NYA Coppock goes bullish * NYSE A/D Line at all-time high * Pretty well all sectors pointing north * Those interest rates Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish In my book Investment Psychology Explained,... READ MORE
* The bullish reverse dominos * Chinese ETF’s * PEK or FXI? * What would a Chinese rally mean for US equities * Chinese short interest The Chinese equity market as reflected in the Shanghai Composite $SSEC has fallen by close to 50 % from the 5166 level on the June 2015 high to its... READ MORE
* A tale of two possible market scenarios * Are we there yet? * Watch those techies * The charts support a higher interest rate scenario A tale of two possible market scenarios I have been calling for a US equity market correction for the last few weeks because an overbought condition in several... READ MORE
* The big picture for oil prices * Oil versus stocks * Commodities versus bonds-the ultimate inflation/deflation relationship * Clean-tech starting to turn around This morning ‘s MarketWatch had a story featuring a recent Goldman Sachs report favoring oil over equities. They also had another, right next to it, saying to the effect... READ MORE
Using The Special K To Identify Major Trend Reversals: * What’s the Special K saying for US equities? * Important parts of Asia are looking sick * Gold and the dollar two diverging trends At my bi-weekly Tuesday Market Roundup Webinar 2015-05-10 last week, I had a few words to say about... READ MORE
* Balancing out the possibilities for US equities * Show me the bullish sectors * Those rates were supposed to go up but the charts say that might not be the case Balancing out the possibilities for US equities Chart 1 shows the NYSE Composite ($NYA) and the Coppock Curve. The curve gives... READ MORE
* Long-term picture still mixed * Analyzing the Short-term Picture * Global equities are still vulnerable * Confidence looking questionable again * Spot the bullish sector Long-term picture still mixed A couple of weeks ago I pointed out that several long-term indicators had tentatively turned bullish and that others were not far behind. The problem... READ MORE
* Changes in key relationships * Implications for specific stock sectors of a declining dollar * The US versus the world At this week’s Market Roundup webinar, I suggested that we had reached an inflexion point for many markets as well as several Intermarket and inter-asset relationships. That inflexion point centered on... READ MORE
* Coppock Curve on a buy and sell? * Record high indicator signals a bull market * 6/180 PPO right on the cusp of a bull market signal * Short-term overbought condition argues for a pause * Commodities breaking to the upside * Interest rates waffling During the last couple of months I have been... READ MORE
Earlier in the week I reviewed several US market sectors from the point of view of their potential strength or weakness. In this article I’ll cover the rest and then some. If you know what I mean by the term “Nirvana Template” you can skip the next paragraph and... READ MORE
In my Tuesday webinar, I opined that the US equity market is pretty close to a make or break point. While several indicators were still bearish it would not take much in the way of upside action to turn them positive. Of course, they never make it easy, and right... READ MORE
* The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point * Those pesky credit spreads are deteriorating again * The US credit markets are close to some important signals The Coppock Curve tells us the market is at a significant juncture point Chart 1 features a long-term smoothed momentum... READ MORE
* A test of the bear market low for commodities is underway * Relative commodity action favors metals and agriculture * Stocks to continue to outperform commodities This week I am focusing on commodity prices, or more specifically on the Commodity Research Bureau Composite ($CRB) to see what might need to take place... READ MORE
* Consistently reliable primary trend indicator on the fence * Strong breadth * Equities overbought and lacking in volume * Rates headed lower? Consistently reliable primary trend indicator right on the fence The US equity market continues to bump up against resistance at a time when most short-term oscillators are overstretched. Since volume has... READ MORE
* World indexes not yet above their 200-day MA’s * USA indexes very overstretched short-term * Two reliable primary trend indexes at make or break points Three world equity indexes StockCharts carries three stock market indexes measuring “The World”. All of them are overbought on a short-term basis, two are below their... READ MORE
* World markets are just below key resistance * Junk bonds break through their 200-day MA. Will the break hold? * World Bond Index breaks to the upside Last week I called for some corrective action in the US equity market based on what, at the time, appeared to be a couple of... READ MORE
* Inflection point for junk bonds? * Fake out rally a la 2008? * Short-term oil rally over? Inflection point for junk bonds? It has been a feature of this bear market that stocks sell off in concert with junk bonds and oil prices as investors fret over potential energy company defaults. Not... READ MORE
* Credit spreads about to turn? * A PPO that calls primary trends * Record High Indicator The market is now starting to respond positively to several bullish intermediate indicators. I still believe the main trend is down, but it seems like a good idea to look at three currently bearish indicators and... READ MORE