* Twenty thousand, a media point on the charts * The real 20,000 event * International markets that deserve a closer look Twenty thousand, a media point on the charts For some time, our friends in the media have been touting Dow 20,000 ($INDU) as if something magical is going to... READ MORE
* Three steps and a stumble * Interest rates are now driving the US Dollar * Charts for the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc continue to erode Three steps and a stumble The late great Edson Gould coined the term “Three Steps And A Stumble”. He was referring to his observation that when... READ MORE
* Some key averages showing signs of temporary exhaustion * Energy burnt out? * Defensives and interest sensitives looking more positive * What about those bonds? I have been bullish on the stock market for some time and in terms of the main trend I still am. I also council on focusing on the... READ MORE
* Using Gold as a barometer for commodity prices * Gold versus other precious metals * Gold and the stock market Earlier in the week I wrote an article pointing out the fact that the Gold price ($GOLD), technically speaking, had reached, what seemed to me, to be a critical technical point. That... READ MORE
* Will the current short-term oversold level in Gold trigger a rally to reverse long-term bear signals? * Gold leads commodities * Gold breaks down against some commodities Will the current short-term oversold trigger a sufficient rally to reverse long-term bear signals? Earlier in the year $GOLD proved to be one of the... READ MORE
* A different way of looking at the VIX * What about global equities? * Sectors are largely pointing north * Are commodities about to break out? The market has been rising in an uninterrupted fashion since early November, on the back of a Trump election victory. The question naturally arises as to whether... READ MORE
* Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign * What does this mean for housing stocks? * Housing conclusion * Small cap big profits? Subdued response to great housing numbers is a bullish sign Sometimes very important developments for the market receive widespread attention, quickly experiencing a swing in sentiment as... READ MORE
* What’s the direction of the primary trend of interest rates? * What do the shorter-term maturities say? * Appraising the short-term technicals In early September, I wrote an article suggesting that things were beginning to fall in place for higher yields. Since then they have edged up a bit, but look... READ MORE
* A brief synopsis of Dow Theory * Transports could be explosive * Was there anything wrong with Monday’s rally? * Market remains short-term oversold * Good looking ETF’s Monday's explosion in prices sent the Dow Transports well above their previous intermediate high. This price action confirms the buy signal already... READ MORE
* What’s happening at the margin? * Short-term technical position oversold…but * Gold breaks out against bonds * Dollar showing weakness What’s happening at the margin? Last week I wrote an upbeat article pointing out that the stock market was oversold on a near-term basis as it approached a bullish seasonal... READ MORE
* Seasonals are bullish * Current condition of some short-term indicators * The bullish part of the year * Time to raise those beta glasses? The stock market has really been in a trading range for the last two years. At my bi-weekly webinar this week, I pointed out that several long-term indicators have... READ MORE
* Long-term perspective * What are gold shares saying? * Gold and the dollar * Conclusion The question of whether gold is in a primary bull market keeps coming up in the Q & A part of my bi-weekly Tuesday webinars. Given the recent drop in the price, this question is becoming increasingly relevant.... READ MORE
* The long-term perspective * Short-term indicators partially bullish * Sectors offering positive relative action The Long-term perspective The US equity market has been moving sideways since July and has certainly worked off any short-term overbought condition. Some indicators are oversold, while others are still declining. During a bear market, these short-term indicators... READ MORE
* Long-term technicals for the pound * Short-term technicals for the pound * TIP of the day! * The potential spoiler? Long-term technicals for the pound Chart 1 shows that the British Pound has completed a 30-year top. The price objective, calculated by taking the maximum depth of the formation and projecting it down... READ MORE
* Long-term picture at a critical juncture point * Global commodities poised for an upside breakout * What about commodities against other assets? * If commodities break out so will yields? Long-term picture at a critical juncture point Chart 1 shows the long-term technical position of the CRB Composite ($CRB), where you can see... READ MORE
* Could it be 1987 deja-vu all over again? * Why it’s not 1987 * Conclusion A savvy subscriber to my monthly Intermarket Review sent me a copy of Chart 1 yesterday. Whenever he forwards me a relationship in chart format, it is usually pointing out a different conclusion than that set... READ MORE
Rationale for the Special K At my Chartcon presentation, I outlined the characteristics and uses of my Special K indicator and introduced a new advanced scan for identifying trading signals. I’ll talk about that, as well as how you can set up such scans later, but first a rationale... READ MORE
* Major stock averages are at major support * Stocks or bonds? * What about the rest of the world? * Inflation/deflation inter-asset relationships The media seems to be fixated with potential central bank action this week but the markets are barely able to keep their eyes open. This is becoming one-big-yawn! I... READ MORE
* Broadening formation is still bullish * What are the short-term indicators saying? * What are important intermarket relationships saying about the recent drop? * Is Dr. Copper about to make a house call? On balance, the stock market has dropped since early last week, but peripheral price action has been constructive. That leads... READ MORE
The long-term picture A couple of weeks ago I started to make the case for rising rates, based partly on the kind of price action featured in Chart 1. However, what was needed to reverse some of the longer term trends of falling yields and rising prices in the credit... READ MORE
* Two possible scenarios for commodities * The primary trend picture * Commodity breadth * What’s the bond market saying? Two possible scenarios for commodities The last time I wrote about commodities my comments had a bullish slant. The CRB Composite ($CRB), having experienced an approximate 8-week correction involving a successful test of... READ MORE
* Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates * What are the short-term technicals saying about rates? * High versus low beta Two reliable indicators point to a new bull market in interest rates Last week I wrote that the vast majority of long-term stock market indicators were... READ MORE
* More corrective activity to come? * Are we there yet with Dow Theory? * Does the correction matter? The market has been moving sideways for the last 2 months, thereby frustrating bull and bear alike. Chart 1 shows that the technical position, so far as breadth is concerned, has been improving. That... READ MORE
* The Six Stages * Characteristics of Stage IV * The stock market’s view on commodities * All that glitters The Six Stages In the latest bi-weekly Market Round Up Webinar I looked at several inter-asset relationships to see which ones are likely to outperform going forward (watch the webinar here). To start... READ MORE
* The S&P 500 versus the world * If things go against the US, where would be a good place to be? * A true contrarian play The S&P 500 versus the world For several years the US stock market has been outperforming the rest of the world in... READ MORE
Two charts that may soon look to the bullish side for rates Short-term technicals Watch those metals In the last 35 years, analysts and investors have gotten used to seeing ever lower rates, even negative ones in Europe and Japan. It seems to me that things may be getting out... READ MORE
* Short-term technicals * Two indicators that have not yet gone bullish * More base building by commodities * Oil greasing the way? Last week we looked at some of the longer-term equity indicators. I concluded that prices were likely to work their way significantly higher for the balance of the year, despite historically... READ MORE
* The long-term trend * Shorter-term aspects * The stock market’s view Several weeks ago I suggested that commodity prices were likely to experience a correction of some kind. I also felt that any digestive process might well take the form of the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern... READ MORE
* More long-term US Equity indicators turning bullish * The case for a spirited rally * Testing the theory At my webinar last week I pointed out a couple of observations on the US equity market. First, that more and more indicators are signaling a bull market. Second, there are some characteristics that... READ MORE
* The Dollar Index-too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro * A closer look at the long-term cross Dollar relationships * What are the Dollar sympathy indicators saying? * Short-term technicals The Dollar Index - Too heavily weighted in favor of the Euro A few months ago I declared the Dollar Index to... READ MORE
* Whipsaw leads to sharp rally * Global equity markets starting to heat up * Broad sector participation * What’s going on with the yield curve? Whipsaw leads to sharp rally Chart 1 compares the Dow ETF (DIA) with my Dow Diffusion Indicator, an oscillator that monitors a basket of Dow Stocks above... READ MORE
* Take a deep 'breadth' * Broadening formations * Long-term indicators support an upside breakout The recent breakout by the S&P and Dow to new high ground has caught the attention of market observers. Some say that the market is overvalued and that prices are unlikely to move higher.... READ MORE
* Labor market crystal ball * What are the credit markets saying * Commodities ripe for a correction? Labor market crystal ball The weakness of last month’s Employment Report was a surprise to just about everyone, including yours truly. One month doesn’t make a trend, but two months of bad data... READ MORE
* Low momentum close to price highs is often followed by above-average declines * Failed patterns are often followed by above average price moves * Those credit spreads are widening again Last week I wrote that there were some positive short-term signs that suggested the reaction to Brexit might be overdone. Monday’s... READ MORE
* Selling climax at the opening * UK versus European Monetary Union * What are global equities saying? * What’s up with the pound? Selling climax at the opening There is an old saying on Wall Street that the market does not discount the same thing twice. Back in early June, we saw... READ MORE
* Stocks show signs of a near-term reversal * What about those bonds? * Gold showing signs of tiredness Stocks show signs of near-term reversal On Thursday, several markets started off strongly in one direction but by the end of the day, these same markets reversed course. Normally when one market or an... READ MORE
* Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear * Rates are starting to breakdown * Keep watching those credit spreads Some short-term equity market cracks are starting to appear In my last article, I pointed out that most of the short-term oscillators were in a bullish configuration. Moreover, they were not... READ MORE
* Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish * NYA Coppock goes bullish * NYSE A/D Line at all-time high * Pretty well all sectors pointing north * Those interest rates Market reacts to bad news with a nothing-burger and that’s bullish In my book Investment Psychology Explained,... READ MORE
* The bullish reverse dominos * Chinese ETF’s * PEK or FXI? * What would a Chinese rally mean for US equities * Chinese short interest The Chinese equity market as reflected in the Shanghai Composite $SSEC has fallen by close to 50 % from the 5166 level on the June 2015 high to its... READ MORE
* A tale of two possible market scenarios * Are we there yet? * Watch those techies * The charts support a higher interest rate scenario A tale of two possible market scenarios I have been calling for a US equity market correction for the last few weeks because an overbought condition in several... READ MORE