* Consumer sentiment flags a sell signal * Short rates rise before commodity prices do. That's not supposed to happen. * TIPS break key support The biggest question in financial markets this week is "will she or won't she?". The ”she” in this case is Janet Yellen... READ MORE
* S&P engulfing pattern hints at downside pressure to come * Guggenheim asset ratio continues to signal money outflow * EEM give indications of a better short-term performance to come * BOJ so far fails the inflation test US Equities short-term The recent wild swings in the market may look... READ MORE
* Right shoulder rally is a work in progress. * Dollar Index showing some technical cracks. * Gold breaks out against stocks. Last week I pointed out that the S&P 500 ($SPX), along with several other averages, had experienced a bullish exhaustion day. That fact, along with an excessively high reading... READ MORE
* Monday’s action suggests a short-term rally is in the cards. * Action by the S&P 48-month ROC argues for a bear market. Catching a falling knife with your bear hands is never fun. Sorry, Freudian slip. Should be bare hands! I am not going to try... READ MORE
* McClellan Volume Model for NASDAQ goes bearish. * EEM breaks down from a major top. * Chinese equities are right on the brink. The last time I wrote about equities, two weeks ago, I pointed out the dearth of breadth. I also mentioned that following the end of the 'bullish end-... READ MORE
* Momentum indicators for commodities are turning up. * The Dollar Index has violated a small down trend line. The major averages have moved sideways over the last 12-months or so but under the surface a few sectors have managed to gain in price and some have lost considerable ground. Chart... READ MORE
* Special K continues to point to lower stock prices. * Dollar looks set to break out on the upside. * Euro and yen denominated commodities at new lows. The market continues to move sideways, but under the surface things continue to deteriorate. For example, Chart 1 features a cumulative line derived from... READ MORE
* NASDAQ, IWM and NYSE Composite face key tests early next week. * Confidence in the bond market about to snap? * Dow violates key bull market trendline. Market tops are not usually straight up and down affairs but typically experience a trading range separating the primary bull from the bear. During that... READ MORE
* Dow diffusion indicator still on a buy signal. * Dow Jones Composite Index facing important technical challenge. * The reflation gold rallies in Euro and Yen are over. Long-term Background Last week at the webinar I came to the conclusion that enough short-term indicators were reversing from oversold readings to... READ MORE
* 25-day ROC experiences a mega oversold. * Shanghai Composite rallies from 200-day MA. * In 1929 in the US and 2007 in China, stocks retraced 50% of their first bear market decline. What does that say about today? This week I am focusing on the Chinese equity market since events... READ MORE
* Emerging markets are on the brink. * The European IEV tentatively breaks its bull market trend line. * Copper being driven down by weakness in China. Equities “Price action on Tuesday was quite remarkable since it seemed at the opening that the equity market was about to fall off a cliff but... READ MORE
* Leading sectors experience false breaks to the upside. * NYSE A/D Line completes a head and shoulders top. * Dollar Index may be about to resume its bull market. US Equities Last week there appeared to be a sporting chance that the market was headed higher as several short-term indicators... READ MORE
* Pring Dow Diffusion indicator triggers a tentative buy signal. * Net new high bond indicator is deeply oversold. * Aussie and Canadian dollars experience bullish KST. US Stocks Action this week has been somewhat disappointing since several averages and sectors experienced reversal characteristics on Tuesday. This suggests that, over the next few... READ MORE
* HYG/IEF bond confidence indicator may be peaking. * Cyclicals and financials have the ability to break to the upside. * Spider Metal and Mining and Materials less favored. US Equities The NYSE Composite ($NYA) continues to trade in a narrow range frustrating bull and bear alike. The 200-day MA often... READ MORE
* - Special K for the NYSE Composite breaks support * - Emerging markets getting oversold * - Commodities are about to resolve their recent trading range A Chinese leading Indicator? It’s a well-known fact that the Chinese market has been the hottest on earth in recent months. What’s not so well known... READ MORE
* -World Bond Index completes a major top. * -US short-term bonds on the verge of a breakout. * -Stocks now being threatened by rising rates. World Bond Index Global bond markets have really been taking it on the chin recently without that usual push they get from rising commodity prices. Monetary... READ MORE
* -Brokers experience a bearish two bar reversal. * -Dollar diffusion indicator ticks up for the first time in many weeks. * -Gold in dollars experiencing a short-term breakdown. * -Gold in yen and euro at crucial support levels. US Equities The market has been working its way irregularly higher over the last... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF falls to important support. * Key bond confidence indicator at a key level. * Dollar offering stronger signals that the correction is over. Global Stocks A couple of weeks ago I drew your attention to the $61 area on the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, as I felt... READ MORE
* Dollar Index ETF experiences a 38% Fibonacci correction and bounces. * Key dollar relationships either at or just above major support. * One way or another individual major currencies look vulnerable. The Dollar Index ($USD) has been correcting for the last 9 weeks causing some observers to question the legitimacy of the... READ MORE
* Key levels for the MSCI World Stock ETF. * Asia Ex Japan and Japan ETF’s can support higher prices. * Latin America and the Middle East look the most vulnerable. Occasionally a specific price can show up as a pivotal number that provides a valuable clue as to the probable direction... READ MORE
* China, Taiwan and South Korea digesting gains following upside breakouts. * India, Russia, and Brazil face technical challenges. * The counter-cyclical commodity rally may well be over. Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, the EEM, has been in a large trading range during the last few years, as you can... READ MORE
* McClellan Summation gives a sell for the Wilshire 5000. * Bond confidence ratios turn positive. * Inflation ratios break to the upside. Trick or treat? * Bonds complete a head and shoulders top. US Equities The NYSE Composite ($NYA) has been doing its best to break to the upside but continues to vacillate... READ MORE
* Global equities starting to get overbought. * Dollar Index and related relationships break to new correction lows. * Commodities tentatively break to the upside. US Equities From now until next Tuesday the market will be under the spell of the bullish end of the month seasonal. That condition, combined with the fact... READ MORE
* -Some short-term momentum indicators weaken but are not yet bearish. * -Dollar related relationships close to an upside breakout * -Gold and silver under pressure US Equities They say that the most critical points of a flight are takeoff and landing. The same is true in technical analysis where the most... READ MORE
* - Confidence trying to improve in the bond market so that it can support higher equities. * - Oil trying to form a base. * - Declining peaks and troughs still in force for the Bloomberg Commodity ETN. Global Equities Throughout most of the bull market my Global A/D Line, comprising the cumulative daily... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF looks set for an upside breakout if it can get a small push in that direction * Treasury yield curve begins to steepen * Gold shares and silver caught in an important trading range. Equities Last week’s headline addressed the question of whether Chinese equities would drag US... READ MORE
* Dow Jones Transports flirting with key support. * Chinese ETF (FXI) experiences a long and short-term breakout. * Emerging markets on the edge of a breakout. US Equities Since the middle of last year we have seen two different market characteristics develop. The first, as epitomized by the S&P... READ MORE
* The NYSE Composite breaks out against the S&P 500. * The SPY/EFA (US against the world) ratio completes a top. * The S&P Europe 350 (IEV) breaks out against the S&P 500. * The DB Commodity ETF is close to an important down trend line violation.... READ MORE
* The RS between US equities and the rest of the world could be about to break against the US. * The GLD breaks above its intermediate down trendline. * Silver experiences a false move to the downside, thereby leaving it free to move higher. The Dollar and Related Markets. Has the US... READ MORE
* World stock ETF may have experienced a false upside breakout. * Bonds likely to out-perform stocks in the immediate future. * Emerging markets ETF right at critical support. Global Equities Global equities are starting to look sick. Chart 1, for instance shows that the MSCI World Stock ETF, the ACWI, has... READ MORE
* NYSE Composite and MSCI World Stock ETF could be in the process of cancelling their recent breakouts. * Stock/bond ratio at a critical juncture. * Junk bonds violate up trend line. * Dollar Index breaks to the upside. * Gold and gold shares face important technical test. Equities Chart 1 suggests that the... READ MORE
* Emerging markets about to experience an important breakout. * Yield curve continues to flatten. * Confidence in the bond market faces an important technical test. US Equities We have seen some nice breakouts in the last few trading sessions, which have been pretty broadly based as you can see from Chart 1,... READ MORE
* -NASDAQ Composite offers quality upside leadership. * -Watch the 5-year yield for a clue as to future rate movements. * -Gold starting to show bull market characteristics but can it confirm with some positive trend action? In last week’s article I drew your attention to the fact that the technical... READ MORE
* The NYA starts to break down against the S&P again. * Emerging markets ETF triggers some short-term sell signals. * The EEM is resting above key long-term support. US Equities The market continues to frustrate both bull and bear alike as the major averages steadfastly refuse to break... READ MORE
* Short-term oscillators turn bullish for equities * EFA breaks above significant down trend line * Gold short-term momentum reverses to the downside US Equities Last week the headline of my Market Roundup article read as follows, ”Will the end-of the month bullish seasonal for equities be enough to avoid... READ MORE
* NYSE Composite is forming a head and shoulders top or is it a bottom? * IWM experiences false upside breakout * SPY/EFA ratio is signaling a dollar correction. Will the Index take the bait? * Wisdom Tree Yuan fund right on a key up trend line I last wrote about the US... READ MORE
* Europe and Emerging Market equities positioned to move higher. * Philippine ETF breaks to the upside. * Silver breaks convincingly to the upside. * Gold breaks out against US equities. US versus the World The trend favoring US equities over most of the rest of the world, may be in the process of... READ MORE
* World Stock ETF getting closer to completing a top. * Gold in euro and yen build on recent breakouts. * Dollar denominated gold close to an upside breakout. US Equities On Friday the S & P Composite ($SPX) experienced the second day of a dark cloud cover formation, a bearish candlestick pattern.... READ MORE
* Much expected Santa Rally did not happen and that’s bearish. * MSCI Europe Australia Far East ETF right on the brink of a major breakdown. * Small caps may have experienced a false upside breakout. * Chinese ETF breaks out big time on both an absolute and relative basis. In my mid-... READ MORE
* Dollar based gold is in a bear market. * Yen and euro denominated gold are in primary bull markets. * Gold shares complete a massive top. Last week we reviewed the technical picture of the major currencies. This week it is the turn of the precious metals because the finely balanced technical... READ MORE