Technology stocks, in the form of the SPDR Technology ETF (XLK), have been on a tear since their secular low in 2009. That strength has not only resulted in higher absolute prices, but also striking relative action. Chart 1 compares the XLK to its long-term KST. Reversals in this indicator... READ MORE
I woke up this morning noting that NASDAQ futures had been down nearly 1,000 points at their overnight intraday low. Later, I tuned into a couple of general purpose, as opposed to financial, cable news channels. They, too, were talking about the sell-off and its rationale. I began to... READ MORE
I have been expecting a bull market correction for about a month, but it's not been as deep as I expected. Now, however, several indexes have completed small bullish two-bar reversal patterns on the weekly charts. If they work, that would be a characteristic of a bull market,... READ MORE
That may seem like a strange title, but it is intended to make the point that commodities look as though they are in the process of breaking out. Furthermore, this breakout, if successful, would jump-start a finely balanced long-term technical position into a primary bull market, all courtesy of our... READ MORE
The Long-Term Picture No market goes up forever and, at some point, Bitcoin will top out. It's currently down about 12% from its peak, set on December 17 less than 4 weeks ago, so there is scant evidence at this point indicating a primary bear market. For example,... READ MORE
Most of the time, when we study bars or candlesticks, our attention is focused on daily and intraday charts, since they give early warnings of a possible change in the short-term trend. Nonetheless, it occasionally makes sense to step back and take a look at monthly bars and candlesticks. Not... READ MORE
The "Trump Trade" refers to the market reaction and investment strategies that emerged following Donald Trump's election victories and his economic policies. It describes the shift in market sentiment driven by anticipated pro-business policies, tax cuts, and deregulation under his administration. Investors initially rushed into sectors... READ MORE
This year has been a very good one for stockholders. Come to think of it, 2023 wasn't so bad either. After an extended period of gains, it's natural for investors to become complacent, especially as they head home for the holidays. This is the kind of... READ MORE
Chart 1 compares the S&P Composite with the NYSE A/D Line and its Common Stock counterpart. These, of course, are not intermarket relationships, but the chart does show that some near-term weakness would violate their bull market trendlines. Violating a trendline is not necessarily the end of... READ MORE
You may not know it, but StockCharts' library of economic indicators has recently been enlarged. It's not as extensive as, say, the stock coverage, but it does include a lot of indicators that actually work, in the sense of helping identify major reversals in stock, bond, and... READ MORE
This article is not centered around a specific theme; rather, it focuses on some charts which look as if they are about to signal an important change in trend. In this case, "important" is defined as a forthcoming move lasting at least 3-months. My indicator of choice for... READ MORE
Chart 1, below, compares the S&P Composite to the Europe Australia Far East ETF (EFA), which is effectively the rest of the world. It shows that US equities have been on a tear against its rivals since the financial crisis. More to the point, there are very few... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows the Dollar Index has been in a trading range for the last couple of years and is now at resistance in the form of its upper part. The big question relates as to whether it can break to the upside, or if the resistance will once again... READ MORE
Last week, I drew your attention to the fact that out that three US market sectors had experienced bearish two-bar reversals on the weekly charts and were likely to retrace some of their previous advances. I also pointed out that this was only one piece of negative evidence and that... READ MORE
Most weekends, I flip through a chartlist featuring weekly bars and candles for sectors, country ETFs, currencies, bonds and some commodities. The idea is to see whether any of these entities are showing signs of bullish or bearish reversals. Most of the time, this fishing exercise does not uncover a... READ MORE
Since 2011, the US stock market, represented by the S&P Composite, has outperformed the world. In the last couple of weeks or so, it has managed to break out from a trading range in its relationship with the rest of the world and looks headed even higher on... READ MORE
Below, Chart 1 shows a weekly plot for the 30-year yield, where we can see a perfectly formed top whose completion was followed by a negative 65-week EMA crossover. At the time of the breakdown, there were few grounds for suspecting a false break. However, in the last couple of... READ MORE
Using West Texas Crude, Chart 1 features one of my favorite techniques for identifying changes in long-term trends, which is simply a PPO using the 6- and 15-month parameters. When it is above zero, it's bullish, and when below, bearish. The pink shading indicates bearish periods, and the... READ MORE
China's stock market exploded last week in an amazing rally, so formidable that it raises the question of whether it could be the start of a new bull market, or just a short-covering rally which will quickly fizzle out. In that respect, it's important to note... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has been selling off sharply in the last few weeks and has now reached critical support in the form of the lower part of its recent trading range. The big question is whether it will break below the range or extend it in any way. Chart 1... READ MORE
Most of the primary trend indicators I follow are in a bullish mode and show few signs of flagging. That said, some intermarket relationships, which help to indicate whether the environment is risk-off or risk-on, have started to move in a risk-off direction. That's usually a bearish omen... READ MORE
Every business cycle has an inflationary and deflationary part, and it's very important for both traders and investors at least to try to have some understanding which has the upper hand at any particular point in time. For example, when the economy is in a slowdown or recessionary... READ MORE
Last June, I wrote an articlewhose title was more or less the same as this one. At the time, the Index was bumping up against the top of a major trading range, and it looked very much as if it was about to experience an upside breakout. My conclusion was... READ MORE
It's not very often that any market experiences a 10-year breakout, let alone a 45-year one. That, however, is what Chart 1 says is about to materialize for the inflation-adjusted gold price. Since the chart is based on monthly data, we will not know for sure until the... READ MORE
Last Monday, markets around the world experienced a sharp drop as the unwinding of yen carry trades followed the previous Friday's response to a weak employment report. The speed and sharpness of the equity sell-off got the attention of the general-purpose media and just about everyone else. From... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Small-cap stocks look like they have lost momentum. * Market breadth in small-cap stocks appears to be weakening. * The Utilities sector seems to be gaining momentum. Just so we are on the same page, I looked up "Great Rotation" on Microsoft's Copilot and came away... READ MORE
The bond market experienced a secular bear between 1981 and the spring of 2020. Chart 1 offers three reasons why it has since reversed and given way to a secular uptrend or possibly multi-year trading range. The first piece of evidence comes from violating the multi-decade trendline. Second, the price... READ MORE
Most weekends, I run through a chart list featuring weekly bars and candlesticks of bonds, stocks and commodities to see if any one or two bar patterns or candlestick formations have developed. Last week produced a crop of bearish messages from the major averages and some sectors. Before you rush... READ MORE
A silver cross occurs when a 20-day MA crosses above its 50-day counterpart. While far from perfect, such signals enable you to ride a persistent trend. However, like all trend following techniques, problems can occur in a trading range environment. Chart 1 features two recent buy signals for the S&... READ MORE
The legendary technician Edson Gould had a rule that, after three discount rate hikes, the stock market would be likely to stumble. That doesn't apply to emerging markets, but it did make a catchy headline. What is relevant to the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM) is that,... READ MORE
Residential housing is not important for its size relative to GDP, which, according to Copilot, is about 3-5%. Rather, due to its interest rate sensitivity, housing is significant because it is the first sector of the economy to turn at the end of a recession, and the first to turn... READ MORE
The Transportation Sector has been one of the weaker brethren of late. That's important, as this market average forms part of the Dow Theory, which many observers believe is currently signaling a bear market. However, back in January, I wrote a piece on the Dow Theorythat came to... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index has been in a trading range since the start of 2023. Its sheer size indicates the ultimate breakout could be followed by a sizeable move in either direction. It is also likely to have important implications for many different markets and asset classes.... READ MORE
In most cycles, central banks around the world raise and lower short-term interest rates in a rough synchronization. Last week, the European and Canadian central banks began lowering their rates, and the British are expected to follow suit this week. Most observers of the US expect the Federal Reserve to... READ MORE
The Canadian and Aussie dollars have been confined between two converging trendlines since the beginning of the century, as we can see from Chart 1. The moment of truth appears to be close at hand, as both are approaching the apex of a giant potential symmetrical triangle. One usually consistent... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the US stock market opining that the correction was over. I still think that's the case, but I do have to note that a bearish outside bar formed on both the S&P and NASDAQ on... READ MORE
It's rare when you see a multi-year breakout take place, but, when several materialize more or less at the same time, that should really get our attention. That's not simply because of the opportunities being presented, but also because several simultaneous breakouts indicate a broader participation... READ MORE
Last February, I wrote an article on emerging markets, using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) as my benchmark. I pointed out that this sector was close, but had not quite broken out to the upside. Now it has, and the outlook is favorable for at least a 4-6-month... READ MORE
The magnitude and duration of corrections are largely determined by the direction of the prevailing primary trend. If it's bearish, they tend to be more severe and last longer. In a bull market, it's just the opposite, as they are generally short and sweet, if you... READ MORE
I last wrote about the dollar in December, where I came to the conclusion that a limited rally was a likely possibility in what was assumed to be a primary bull market. I am still of the view that the bull market is alive and well, but it's... READ MORE