Chart 1 shows that the Dollar Index has been in a trading range since the start of 2023. Its sheer size indicates the ultimate breakout could be followed by a sizeable move in either direction. It is also likely to have important implications for many different markets and asset classes.... READ MORE
In most cycles, central banks around the world raise and lower short-term interest rates in a rough synchronization. Last week, the European and Canadian central banks began lowering their rates, and the British are expected to follow suit this week. Most observers of the US expect the Federal Reserve to... READ MORE
The Canadian and Aussie dollars have been confined between two converging trendlines since the beginning of the century, as we can see from Chart 1. The moment of truth appears to be close at hand, as both are approaching the apex of a giant potential symmetrical triangle. One usually consistent... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the US stock market opining that the correction was over. I still think that's the case, but I do have to note that a bearish outside bar formed on both the S&P and NASDAQ on... READ MORE
It's rare when you see a multi-year breakout take place, but, when several materialize more or less at the same time, that should really get our attention. That's not simply because of the opportunities being presented, but also because several simultaneous breakouts indicate a broader participation... READ MORE
Last February, I wrote an article on emerging markets, using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) as my benchmark. I pointed out that this sector was close, but had not quite broken out to the upside. Now it has, and the outlook is favorable for at least a 4-6-month... READ MORE
The magnitude and duration of corrections are largely determined by the direction of the prevailing primary trend. If it's bearish, they tend to be more severe and last longer. In a bull market, it's just the opposite, as they are generally short and sweet, if you... READ MORE
I last wrote about the dollar in December, where I came to the conclusion that a limited rally was a likely possibility in what was assumed to be a primary bull market. I am still of the view that the bull market is alive and well, but it's... READ MORE
Back in early February, I wrote an article entitled "Only a Fool Would Try to Call a Correction in a Bull Market, So Here Goes". In it, I was trying to point out that counter-cyclical corrections are notably difficult to identify, as they often terminate just at the... READ MORE
In the last couple of weeks, I have been reading stories about shoppers picking up gold bars in, of all places, Costco. According to Gemini, the AI branch of Google, "Reports indicate they may be selling up to $200 million worth of gold bars every month." Normally, thin... READ MORE
Wednesday brought an unexpected firming up of the inflation figures, causing analysts and commentators to trim the number of times they expect interest rates to be cut this year. Whenever it is that the questions turn away from whether to when and by how much, as was the case until... READ MORE
This may seem like a contradiction, but it is possible for two different things to be true at the same time. What I am referring to is the fact that the health care sector (XLV) recently broke out from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders pattern, as we can see from the... READ MORE
Sometimes, simple indicators like bar or candlesticks operate just as the textbooks tell us they should. I don't normally follow individual stocks, but the hype surrounding last week's listing of Trump Media piqued my interest to see if the technical position squared with what the many... READ MORE
To paraphrase the late great contrarian Humphrey Neil: When everyone thinks alike, it's usually time to look for a turn in the market. It seems to me, after reviewing an unscientific survey of the financial media, that everyone and his dog (no disrespect to our canine friends) is... READ MORE
By now it's common knowledge that the Chinese property sector is in crisis, foreign investment has slowed, and youth unemployment is at record levels. Should be time to sell Chinese equities, right? After all, we don't know when the other shoe is going to drop. They... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out the inflationary consequences of the recent gold breakout, as gold market participants initially expect prices to firm up in the commodity pits and later the CPI itself. This week, we will take those thoughts a step further by relating swings in industrial commodity prices to... READ MORE
The title of this article may be exaggerated, but, last Friday, the probabilities for an upward reversal in the rate of inflation later this year went substantially higher. That's because the gold price, an inflationary bellwether, broke out from a 4-year trading range to a new all-time high.... READ MORE
Absorbing the information gleaned from monthly charts for various asset classes or sectors can help gain some perspective. However, I find that an examination of the relationships between them can be equally rewarding, if not moreso. That's because they point out the nature of the current investment environment,... READ MORE
Last November I asked the question "Are emerging markets about to emerge?"Using the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) as our benchmark, I concluded that more strength was needed in order to push the indicators into a bullish mode. In the intervening period, things have improved, but... READ MORE
Last November and December, it looked as if gold had broken out from a multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders. Since then, the price has dropped below the breakout area, and the long-term KST has begun to roll over. Just like takeoff and landing are the critical points for an aircraft, breakouts are... READ MORE
The vast majority of the primary trend indicators are pointing to a bull market and have been doing so for the better part of a year. Chart 1, for instance, shows that NYSE Margin Debt, or rather its long-term KST, has only recently gone bullish. The vertical lines point out... READ MORE
Oil is not only an important commodity in and of itself, but is also one has a substantial influence on commodity indexes in general. Its weight in the CRB Composite is 23%; for energy in total, it is 39%. Chart 1 compares the oil price to the CRB Composite, where... READ MORE
Some tools in technical analysis are totally objective, such as a moving average crossover. It may be debatable whether it's a decisive signal or not, but a crossover is nevertheless a crossover. Dow Theory, on the other hand, is much more subjective and, therefore, open to interpretation. For... READ MORE
Last week, eight new Bitcoin-based ETFs began trading courtesy of recent SEC approval. This launch was well anticipated, as the price had already run up in the hope that these new buyers would push it to an even higher level. The thought occurred to me that the situation is not... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I took note of the widespread interest in small caps amongst the technical community. I don't normally follow cap plays, but my contrary bones began to shake when I saw such acclaim at their recent performance following several false dawns in the last... READ MORE
In this must-see once a year special, Martin breaks down his comprehensive equity market outlook for 2024, accompanied by Bruce Fraser. Encompassing a secular (multi-business cycle) perspective of the forces that are likely to influence stocks and bonds over the coming years, Martin presents a look ahead at what'... READ MORE
It has been a great rally, but this week has seen the DJIA violate its post November up trendline. In addition, the 9-day RSI has retreated below its 70 overbought zone for the first time since early November, and the daily KST has triggered a sell signal. Is it time... READ MORE
Over the years, emerging markets as a group have experienced huge swings in relative performance. The latest one, which began in 2010, has been quite bearish. When such linear trends dominate the scene, reliable cyclical indicators, such as the long-term KST or monthly MACD, often give premature buy signals and... READ MORE
I like to start off my approach to any market by taking a look at the long-term trend. That's because a rising tide not only lifts all boats, but the direction of the long-term trend determines the characteristics of those below it. For example, if the primary trend... READ MORE
Technology (XLK) and Communications Services (XLC) have been the leaders since the bull market began in October of last year. However, they may need to look over their shoulders, as financials have been creeping up since the October 27 intermediate low. The short answer to the question posed by the... READ MORE
A lot of the time, I write articles that focus on markets or technical situations that should be monitored for a potential turn. This one is no different, except to say that these markets are not close to breakout points, but right at them. In short, it's fish-or-cut-bait... READ MORE
We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
I last wrote about bonds and interest rates in August, as they were in the process of challenging their October 2022 highs. My conclusion at the time was that they were likely to go through, but that upside potential would be limited due to what seemed at the time to... READ MORE
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an upbeat article on the market, pointing out the fact that many short- and intermediate-term indicators were in a potentially bullish position at a time when stocks seemed impervious to bad news. I concluded "That does not mean the market will go... READ MORE
Understandably, most Middle Eastern country ETFs have performed poorly since the war broke out, but there is one noticeable exception, which I will get to later. Israel First, as might be expected, the iShares Israel ETF (EIS) has moved lower and completed what looks to be a massive top. The... READ MORE
When Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt was assassinated in 1981, gold rallied sharply over the near-term, but the advance soon petered out. The reason was that gold was in a primary bear market, so the advance merely represented a counter-cyclical move. Gold has rallied sharply since the Middle East crisis... READ MORE
I must say, I was surprised that the outbreak of war in the Middle East and a 4% rise in oil sent the market higher, not lower by the close of business last Monday. Typically, a market that does not respond to bad news in a negative way is one... READ MORE
Several short-term charts suggest the SPDR Real Estate ETF (XLRE) is getting ready to rock and roll, thereby indicating an extension to this week's rebound is in the cards. It's possible that the expected rally could result in shifting some of the longer-term indicators towards a... READ MORE
The Dollar Index I last wrote an article on the dollar in August, The Dollar Index Goes to Missouri. In it, I pointed out that the Index had reached crucial resistance, which, if surpassed, would signal a new primary bull market and a likely fourth up leg to the secular... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the S&P Composite, like both A/D Lines, has completed and decisively broken down from a head-and-shoulders top. The two breadth indicators have also violated their bull market up trendlines. On the surface, things look pretty grim, with three seasonally weak September days left... READ MORE