Last month, the gold price slipped down very closely towards its 12-month MA. This is not a perfect indicator, but most downside penetrations are followed by bearish action, so you could say that gold is at the crossroads. Chart 1 tells us that prices have bounced a bit since then,... READ MORE
The global business cycle is nothing more than a chronological sequence of economic and financial market turning points. One of these involves a bottoming of commodity prices, as a new bull market gets underway. That reversal occurred several months ago and has recently been confirmed by numerous long-term indicators. That... READ MORE
Years ago, before online charting platforms were widely available, technicians resorted to chartbooks published on a weekly or monthly basis and received days later in the snail mail. Using their long-term perspective helped a lot of us to appreciate that surpassing Dow 1,000 (see Chart 1) was a really... READ MORE
Years ago, before online charting platforms were widely available, technicians resorted to chartbooks published on a weekly or monthly basis and received days later in the snail mail. Using their long-term perspective helped a lot of us to appreciate that surpassing Dow 1,000 (see Chart 1) was a really... READ MORE
Two Stock Market Relationships That Have Just Turned Positive A few weeks ago, I wrote about some intermarket relationships pointing in the direction of higher stock prices. Picking through my StockCharts chart lists earlier in the week, I noticed a couple more that have only just moved into the bullish... READ MORE
Since its intraday high (set in August), the price of the SPDR Gold Trust, the GLD, has fallen close to 15%. That's not enough to qualify for a bear market under the media's arbitrary and totally useless 20% standard. However, it is enough for bulls like... READ MORE
Since its intraday high (set in August), the price of the SPDR Gold Trust, the GLD, has fallen close to 15%. That's not enough to qualify for a bear market under the media's arbitrary and totally useless 20% standard. However, it is enough for bulls like... READ MORE
Last September, I pointed out herethat the ratio between the S&P Composite and the MSCI World Stock ETF (SPY/ACWI) had reached a critical juncture and needed an immediate rally in order to avoid an important sell signal. That point has been flagged with the green arrow. As... READ MORE
* Russell 2K at a Record High * Some Small-Cap Sector ETFs Breaking as Well Russell 2K at a Record High Small-caps have been underperforming since early 2018, but, in the last few weeks, have begun to emerge as relative outperformers. We can see this from Chart 1, where the iShares Russell... READ MORE
Pfizer (PFE)'s announcement about a vaccine may have triggered a sharp rally on Monday, but its real effect was to boost confidence, which improved the status of a lot of different relationships that I follow, portending further gains for stocks and commodities down the road. Swings in sentiment... READ MORE
Pfizer (PFE)'s announcement about a vaccine may have triggered a sharp rally on Monday, but its real effect was to boost confidence, which improved the status of a lot of different relationships that I follow, portending further gains for stocks and commodities down the road. Swings in sentiment... READ MORE
They say that the Chinese economy has emerged from the pandemic quicker than the rest of the world. Recent action by Chinese ETFs certainly underscores such a possibility, as many have broken out from multi-week consolidation patterns. I last wrote about Chinese ETFs back in July,when we considered a... READ MORE
This week's sell-off has been pretty scary. However, it has not yet ruptured the primary uptrend that began in March. In that respect, Chart 1 shows that the PPO for the S&P Composite, using 6- and 15-month EMAs as parameters, remains well above its equilibrium level.... READ MORE
They say Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The implication... READ MORE
They say that Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the long-term KST for the ratio between stocks and bonds was close to a buy signal, and that all such signals in the last 30-years had been followed by substantial advances in equity prices (Chart 1). We still don't have a signal... READ MORE
Sometimes, it's a good idea to approach likely market action not so much from an analysis of the market itself, but substituting intermarket or inter-asset relationships to accomplish the same objective. It is a fact that each business cycle goes through a set series of chronological sequences. We... READ MORE
Sometimes, it's a good idea to approach likely market action not so much from an analysis of the market itself, but substituting intermarket or interasset relationships to accomplish the same objective. It is a fact that each business cycle goes through a set series of chronological sequences. We... READ MORE
Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish Long-term Charts show that gold is in a firm uptrend. Take Chart 1, for instance; it tracks the price of the yellow metal on a quarterly basis using a quarterly measure of the Coppock Curve, a momentum indicator originally devised by Edmund Coppock.... READ MORE
* Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish * Monthly-Based Gold Model is a Long Way from a Sell Signal * Inflation-Adjusted Gold at Mega Resistance * When Will the Correction Have Run its Course? Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish Long-term Charts show that gold is in a firm uptrend. Take Chart... READ MORE
For many years, the S&P Composite (SPY) has outperformed the MSCI World Stock ETF (ACWI). The benefit of the doubt continues to move in favor of the US, but this relationship has reached a crucial juncture point and needs to bounce; otherwise, some serious technical damage will transpire.... READ MORE
From time to time, I like to review the various sectors to see which ones are in a positive or negative relative trend and which might be in a position to change. To do this, I use what I call my Nirvana Template or, in StockCharts-speak, Nirvana Chart Style. It... READ MORE
Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low Most corrections in a bull market fall in the 5-10% range. On Thursday, the NASDAQ is down 10% intraday and the S&P Composite 7%, so it's not unrealistic to conclude that the correction might be over.... READ MORE
* Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low * Others Suggest the Likelihood of More Corrective Activity * Indicators that Should Be Monitored for a Possible Upside Reversal Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low Most corrections in a bull market fall in the 5-10% range. So... READ MORE
I don't think there is a connection between 1929 and 2020, but the headline seemed too good to pass up. Late last week, I mentioned that September is the weakest month of the year for stocks while October is prone to crashes. "Welcome to the bearish season,... READ MORE
Strong Bull Market Indications We are all aware of the Shakespearian saying "Beware of the Ides of March," which didn't go so well for Julius Caesar. In market folklore, October is the season for crashes and September is the worst-performing month. Welcome to the bearish season!... READ MORE
* Strong Bull Market Indications * Short-Term Vulnerability? Strong Bull Market Indications We are all aware of the Shakespearian saying "Beware of the Ides of March," which didn't go so well for Julius Caesar. In market folklore, October is the season for crashes and September is the worst-performing... READ MORE
* The Bear Market Case * Time for a Counter-Cyclical Rally? The Bear Market Case By most methods and approaches, the Dollar Index is in a bear market. Take Chart 1, for instance, which compares the Index to its long-term KST. The pink-shaded areas tell us when it is below its 12-month... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a sideways... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a sideways... READ MORE
I have written about commodities several times in the last four months or so as evidence of a major reversal had begun to appear. Now, more indicators are starting to turn. Near-term, things look overdone, but if this is really is a bull market, that will not matter, as short-term... READ MORE
Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase of the business cycle, rising commodities are beneficial for stocks, not only for commodity-sensitive sectors such as... READ MORE
* Rising Commodity Momentum is Bullish for Stocks and the Economy * Long-Term Technicals Look Promising for Copper Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase of... READ MORE
* The US versus the Rest of the World * Europe * Asia The US versus the Rest of the World Chart 1 shows that the up trend favoring the S&P Composite against the Vanguard All-World Ex-US ETF (the VEU) is intact. That's because the latest plot is above... READ MORE
Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating elsewhere. Take Chart 1, for instance; it shows that Monday's price... READ MORE
* Technology About to Pause? * New Blood is Starting to Emerge * Two Fence Sitters Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating... READ MORE
* Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? * Silver Shares Starting to Perk Up * Silver Bottoming Against Gold? Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? Gold has been in a strong bull market recently, which has eclipsed the performance of the gray metal.... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Ruptures Mega Trendline * Chinese ETFs Breaking as Well * Interesting Chinese Sector ETFs Back in March, I wrote about the Chinese stock market, as it had started to improve in terms of relative action against the S&P. Since then, Chinese equities have moved higher with no net... READ MORE
Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective Gold broke out to a new recovery high on Tuesday and looks set to gain more ground, all with a favorable background from the long-term trend. Chart 1 compares the quarterly gold price to a Coppock indicator and its 9-quarter moving average. This is not... READ MORE
* Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective * Gold vs. the Dollar * Gold vs. Gold Shares * Short-Term Gold Position * Conclusion Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective Gold broke out to a new recovery high on Tuesday and looks set to gain more ground, all with a favorable background from the long-term trend. Chart 1... READ MORE