They say that Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That arises because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics and power generation. The... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the long-term KST for the ratio between stocks and bonds was close to a buy signal, and that all such signals in the last 30-years had been followed by substantial advances in equity prices (Chart 1). We still don't have a signal... READ MORE
Sometimes, it's a good idea to approach likely market action not so much from an analysis of the market itself, but substituting intermarket or inter-asset relationships to accomplish the same objective. It is a fact that each business cycle goes through a set series of chronological sequences. We... READ MORE
Sometimes, it's a good idea to approach likely market action not so much from an analysis of the market itself, but substituting intermarket or interasset relationships to accomplish the same objective. It is a fact that each business cycle goes through a set series of chronological sequences. We... READ MORE
Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish Long-term Charts show that gold is in a firm uptrend. Take Chart 1, for instance; it tracks the price of the yellow metal on a quarterly basis using a quarterly measure of the Coppock Curve, a momentum indicator originally devised by Edmund Coppock.... READ MORE
* Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish * Monthly-Based Gold Model is a Long Way from a Sell Signal * Inflation-Adjusted Gold at Mega Resistance * When Will the Correction Have Run its Course? Coppock Indicator Using Quarterly Data is Bullish Long-term Charts show that gold is in a firm uptrend. Take Chart... READ MORE
For many years, the S&P Composite (SPY) has outperformed the MSCI World Stock ETF (ACWI). The benefit of the doubt continues to move in favor of the US, but this relationship has reached a crucial juncture point and needs to bounce; otherwise, some serious technical damage will transpire.... READ MORE
From time to time, I like to review the various sectors to see which ones are in a positive or negative relative trend and which might be in a position to change. To do this, I use what I call my Nirvana Template or, in StockCharts-speak, Nirvana Chart Style. It... READ MORE
Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low Most corrections in a bull market fall in the 5-10% range. On Thursday, the NASDAQ is down 10% intraday and the S&P Composite 7%, so it's not unrealistic to conclude that the correction might be over.... READ MORE
* Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low * Others Suggest the Likelihood of More Corrective Activity * Indicators that Should Be Monitored for a Possible Upside Reversal Some Indicators Have Moved to Levels Consistent with a Low Most corrections in a bull market fall in the 5-10% range. So... READ MORE
I don't think there is a connection between 1929 and 2020, but the headline seemed too good to pass up. Late last week, I mentioned that September is the weakest month of the year for stocks while October is prone to crashes. "Welcome to the bearish season,... READ MORE
Strong Bull Market Indications We are all aware of the Shakespearian saying "Beware of the Ides of March," which didn't go so well for Julius Caesar. In market folklore, October is the season for crashes and September is the worst-performing month. Welcome to the bearish season!... READ MORE
* Strong Bull Market Indications * Short-Term Vulnerability? Strong Bull Market Indications We are all aware of the Shakespearian saying "Beware of the Ides of March," which didn't go so well for Julius Caesar. In market folklore, October is the season for crashes and September is the worst-performing... READ MORE
* The Bear Market Case * Time for a Counter-Cyclical Rally? The Bear Market Case By most methods and approaches, the Dollar Index is in a bear market. Take Chart 1, for instance, which compares the Index to its long-term KST. The pink-shaded areas tell us when it is below its 12-month... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a sideways... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the basic trend for bond yields around the world is still negative, as all series are in a clear-cut downtrend. The only exception is Japan, where the secular down trendline was violated earlier in the year. So far, though, the yield has only managed a sideways... READ MORE
I have written about commodities several times in the last four months or so as evidence of a major reversal had begun to appear. Now, more indicators are starting to turn. Near-term, things look overdone, but if this is really is a bull market, that will not matter, as short-term... READ MORE
Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase of the business cycle, rising commodities are beneficial for stocks, not only for commodity-sensitive sectors such as... READ MORE
* Rising Commodity Momentum is Bullish for Stocks and the Economy * Long-Term Technicals Look Promising for Copper Swings in commodity prices are both a market and an economic indicator. There are certainly exceptions, but when the economy is in a recovery phase, commodity prices generally rise. During the early phase of... READ MORE
* The US versus the Rest of the World * Europe * Asia The US versus the Rest of the World Chart 1 shows that the up trend favoring the S&P Composite against the Vanguard All-World Ex-US ETF (the VEU) is intact. That's because the latest plot is above... READ MORE
Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating elsewhere. Take Chart 1, for instance; it shows that Monday's price... READ MORE
* Technology About to Pause? * New Blood is Starting to Emerge * Two Fence Sitters Technology About to Pause? The undisputed king of sectors so far this year has been technology. This week's price action from the tech dominated NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ), though, suggests that this leadership may be rotating... READ MORE
* Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? * Silver Shares Starting to Perk Up * Silver Bottoming Against Gold? Silver has been Range-Bound - But is That About to End? Gold has been in a strong bull market recently, which has eclipsed the performance of the gray metal.... READ MORE
* Shanghai Composite Ruptures Mega Trendline * Chinese ETFs Breaking as Well * Interesting Chinese Sector ETFs Back in March, I wrote about the Chinese stock market, as it had started to improve in terms of relative action against the S&P. Since then, Chinese equities have moved higher with no net... READ MORE
Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective Gold broke out to a new recovery high on Tuesday and looks set to gain more ground, all with a favorable background from the long-term trend. Chart 1 compares the quarterly gold price to a Coppock indicator and its 9-quarter moving average. This is not... READ MORE
* Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective * Gold vs. the Dollar * Gold vs. Gold Shares * Short-Term Gold Position * Conclusion Long-Term Gold Charts Give Perspective Gold broke out to a new recovery high on Tuesday and looks set to gain more ground, all with a favorable background from the long-term trend. Chart 1... READ MORE
The simple answer to the question posed in the title is "No!". However, there are a number of interesting parallels that have implications for 2020 and beyond. Let's see what they are. The Decennial Cycle and Years Ending in a "0" According to the... READ MORE
* The Decennial Cycle and Years Ending in a "0" * 1980 and 2020 Both Experienced Recessions * Further Out, Things are More Problematic * China Technology Breaks to the Upside The simple answer to the question posed in the title is "No!". However, there are a number of interesting... READ MORE
* Market Gets a New Lease on Life * Ten-Day Breadth Ratio Hits Bullish Extreme * S&P Stocks Above 50-day MA Also Hit a Bullish Extreme * Can Small-Caps Extend their Sharp Rally? Usually, when a market rallies sharply and experiences an overbought condition, the probabilities favor corrective activity of some kind.... READ MORE
Part-Time Employees for Economic Reasons is a leading indicator of the labor market. That's because employers are more inclined to hire and fire temporary workers than permanent ones, where labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way. This indicator has been consistently useful in identifying... READ MORE
Part-Time Employees for Economic Reasons is a leading indicator of the labor market. That's because employers are more inclined to hire and fire temporary workers than permanent ones, where labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way. This indicator has been consistently useful in identifying... READ MORE
* The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator * Close Correlation between Canadian/Australian Dollars and Commodities * The Stock Market Votes for Commodities * Short-Term Breakout Underway? The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article on commodities suggesting that conditions were falling into... READ MORE
March Was a Really Strong Bottom Tuesday's action looks bullish on the surface, but may signal the end of the rally. I emphasized the word "may" not because I am trying to hedge my bets, but more because the March bottom, by historical standards, was a... READ MORE
* March Was a Really Strong Bottom * NASDAQ Closes a Gap * S&P Fails at its 200-Day MA * Conclusion March Was a Really Strong Bottom Tuesday's action looks bullish on the surface, but may signal the end of the rally. I emphasized the word "may" not... READ MORE
The Stock Market is Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices [One big] thing going positive for commodities is my Inflation/Deflation ratio. This series pits equities sensitive to swings in commodity prices, such as natural resource stocks, to those that do better when interest rates are falling, such as utilities, consumer staples,... READ MORE
* Gold Has Done its Work as a Leading Commodity Indicator * The Stock Market is Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices * Commodities on the Verge of a Breakout * Oil VIX Signals a Major Bottom in Oil Prices Three weeks ago, I raised the question as to whether commodities had begun to embark on... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the S&P Composite, despite the strong rally off the March low, had failed to touch an overbought condition. That presented a problem, since a security that is unable to reach an overstretched reading is usually suffering from some kind of a bear... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
Commodities have been badly beaten up in the last few months, but no market goes down for ever, so it's natural to ask the question of whether it's time for an upside reversal. The evidence for that is not conclusive yet, but there are some very... READ MORE