The simple answer to the question posed in the title is "No!". However, there are a number of interesting parallels that have implications for 2020 and beyond. Let's see what they are. The Decennial Cycle and Years Ending in a "0" According to the... READ MORE
* The Decennial Cycle and Years Ending in a "0" * 1980 and 2020 Both Experienced Recessions * Further Out, Things are More Problematic * China Technology Breaks to the Upside The simple answer to the question posed in the title is "No!". However, there are a number of interesting... READ MORE
* Market Gets a New Lease on Life * Ten-Day Breadth Ratio Hits Bullish Extreme * S&P Stocks Above 50-day MA Also Hit a Bullish Extreme * Can Small-Caps Extend their Sharp Rally? Usually, when a market rallies sharply and experiences an overbought condition, the probabilities favor corrective activity of some kind.... READ MORE
Part-Time Employees for Economic Reasons is a leading indicator of the labor market. That's because employers are more inclined to hire and fire temporary workers than permanent ones, where labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way. This indicator has been consistently useful in identifying... READ MORE
Part-Time Employees for Economic Reasons is a leading indicator of the labor market. That's because employers are more inclined to hire and fire temporary workers than permanent ones, where labor laws, contracts, pensions and other impediments get in the way. This indicator has been consistently useful in identifying... READ MORE
* The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator * Close Correlation between Canadian/Australian Dollars and Commodities * The Stock Market Votes for Commodities * Short-Term Breakout Underway? The Gold/CRB Ratio as a Commodity Indicator A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article on commodities suggesting that conditions were falling into... READ MORE
March Was a Really Strong Bottom Tuesday's action looks bullish on the surface, but may signal the end of the rally. I emphasized the word "may" not because I am trying to hedge my bets, but more because the March bottom, by historical standards, was a... READ MORE
* March Was a Really Strong Bottom * NASDAQ Closes a Gap * S&P Fails at its 200-Day MA * Conclusion March Was a Really Strong Bottom Tuesday's action looks bullish on the surface, but may signal the end of the rally. I emphasized the word "may" not... READ MORE
The Stock Market is Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices [One big] thing going positive for commodities is my Inflation/Deflation ratio. This series pits equities sensitive to swings in commodity prices, such as natural resource stocks, to those that do better when interest rates are falling, such as utilities, consumer staples,... READ MORE
* Gold Has Done its Work as a Leading Commodity Indicator * The Stock Market is Forecasting Higher Commodity Prices * Commodities on the Verge of a Breakout * Oil VIX Signals a Major Bottom in Oil Prices Three weeks ago, I raised the question as to whether commodities had begun to embark on... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out that the S&P Composite, despite the strong rally off the March low, had failed to touch an overbought condition. That presented a problem, since a security that is unable to reach an overstretched reading is usually suffering from some kind of a bear... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
Sixty-Five Year Record of Success One of my favorite long-term indicators involves the 12-month ROC of the S&P Composite falling below the -5% level and subsequently rallying back above zero. This approach is shown in Chart 1, which illustrates the period from 1995 through April 30 of this... READ MORE
Commodities have been badly beaten up in the last few months, but no market goes down for ever, so it's natural to ask the question of whether it's time for an upside reversal. The evidence for that is not conclusive yet, but there are some very... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This is an updated version of an article originally posted on Martin Pring's Market Roundup on April 21, 2020. In recent articles, I have pointed out that quite a few of the short-term indicators reached well beyond their normal oversold readings at the March... READ MORE
In recent articles, I have pointed out that quite a few of the short-term indicators reached well beyond their normal oversold readings at the March lows. Historically, this is has been a very bullish characteristic, often signaling the end of a bear market. The difference between now and most of... READ MORE
History tells us that, at major turning points for commodities, there is a strong, albeit imprecise, tendency for the gold price to have preceded that reversal. Gold generally leads because a rising price anticipates inflation, while a falling one anticipates deflation. This idea is represented by the rightward sloping solid... READ MORE
History tells us that, at major turning points for commodities, there is a strong, albeit imprecise, tendency for the gold price to have preceded that reversal. Gold generally leads because a rising price anticipates inflation, while a falling one anticipates deflation. This idea is represented by the rightward sloping solid... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that last week, based on daily data, the gold price quietly broke out from a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. It's certainly a little overstretched on a short-term basis and may need to pause for a couple of sessions or so, but the longer-term indicators are pointing... READ MORE
Whenever a specific technical event is repeated widely in many different stocks, it gets my attention, as it often signals a reversal in the prevailing trend. We call it the principle of commonality. Alternatively, you could think of it as the principle of strength in numbers. Tuesday's Action... READ MORE
In my monthly Intermarket Review this month, I pointed out that, using a 6-week ROC for perspective, the DJIA dropped by 36% on March 20 -before then, there had only been two other instances where the market had fallen by a similar amount from an all-time-high. Based on the DJIA... READ MORE
I wrote earlier in the week that, whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some form of bottom has taken place (however fleeting), so I don't want to state the obvious. It is apparent, though, that some of the short-term indicators have finally begun... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This is an expansion of a previous Market Roundup article written on Tuesday, March 24th, now with updated charts and commentary. For the original article, click here. I wrote earlier in the week that, whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some... READ MORE
* Indicators Start to Flash Buy Signals * What Happened in the 1929-32 Bear Market? * Longer-Term Perspective Whenever the market rallies by 8-9%, it's obvious that some form of bottom has taken place (however fleeting), so I don't want to state the obvious. It is apparent, though, that... READ MORE
This week has seen U.S. administration fiscal proposals, as well as 1.5 trillion dollars in Fed support, aimed at limiting the economic damage from COVID-19. Friday saw a travel ban put into effect, along with a state of emergency. Unfortunately, these actions, just like the previous week'... READ MORE
This week has seen U.S. administration fiscal proposals, as well as 1.5 trillion dollars in Fed support, aimed at limiting the economic damage from COVID-19. Friday saw a travel ban put into effect, along with a state of emergency. Unfortunately, these actions, just like the previous week'... READ MORE
* Bonds and Yen Starting to Lose Safety Appeal? * One Indicator That Has Returned to Financial Crisis Levels Bonds and Yen Starting to Lose Safety Appeal? The stock market has got the majority of the attention in the last couple of weeks because of its exceptional volatility. On the other hand,... READ MORE
* Revisiting the February 29 Hammer * Hammering a Top for COVID-19 Revisiting the February 29 Hammer On Friday, 29 February, I pointed out that the Wilshire 5,000 had formed a bullish hammer at a time when a couple of other short-term indicators had reached extreme levels, thereby suggesting a rally.... READ MORE
* Shanghai is Outperforming the US * Interesting Chinese Sectors Shanghai is Outperforming the US Back in early January, I drew your attention to the fact that the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) had broken to the upside, which is shown in Chart 1. A week or so later, when the coronavirus reared its... READ MORE
It's been quite a week, but the charts are starting to look to me as if a bottom is close at hand. In order to identify one, I look at a couple of factors. First, are there any signs of a one or two bar reversal pattern? Take... READ MORE
* Some Signs of Weakness * On a More Bullish Note * Mind that Gap and Volatility Last time I wrote about the stock market was the first week in February, where I concluded that a couple of indicators were oversold, but that many others were not, so further corrective action probably lay... READ MORE
* Secular Trend for the 20-Year Yield * Lower Down Curve Yields Are Already in a Secular Bull * Short-Term Oscillators Ready for Some Upside Action? The coronavirus has triggered concerns about the recovery, which in turn has resulted in a sharp setback for yields. Falling yields are bullish for housing starts, which,... READ MORE
Back in December, I wrote an articlepointing out that the business cycle was nothing more than a set series of chronological sequences. The importance of this observation, for investors, is that the primary trend peaks and troughs of bonds, stocks and commodities fit nicely into that chronology, as shown in... READ MORE
* Where Are We in the Cycle? * The Economy is Currently on the Side of the Bulls * The Technical Position of the DB Commodity ETF is Precarious Where Are We in the Cycle? Back in December, I wrote an articlepointing out that the business cycle was nothing more than a set... READ MORE
* Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained * More Corrective Action Likely * One Indicator Flashes a Buy Signal * Conclusion Why the Correction Will Likely be Contained A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that a correction was inevitable, and presented a couple of indicators to suggest that it might be close.... READ MORE
The stock market was roughed up by the coronavirus earlier in the week, but, under the surface, another battle has been going on -- the one between inflation and deflation, that is, as both yields and commodity prices have run up against key support levels. That's a dispute... READ MORE
* Bond Yields are Just Above Support * Commodities are at Support The stock market was roughed up by the coronavirus earlier in the week, but, under the surface, another battle has been going on -- the one between inflation and deflation, that is, as both yields and commodity prices have run... READ MORE
One of the basic laws of technical analysis, which I have learned the hard way, is to be very careful about calling counter-cyclical short-term moves. The primary trend dominates everything. For example, if you are in a bear market and you see a short-term oversold condition, do not assume that... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative... READ MORE
The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative... READ MORE