Nope, I'm not referring to college basketball. Instead, it's this wacky stock market. In my last article, I discussed several reasons why the 2014 advance is on shaky ground. Since then, we've seen increased volatility and lots of whipsaw action. Earlier in March, our... READ MORE
Make no mistake about it, I prefer to be bullish. History supports this notion because the stock market has always tended to move higher more than it moves lower. Dating back to 1950, the S&P 500 has moved higher over 53% of trading days. Did you know that... READ MORE
Just two weeks ago, the stock market seemed on the verge of its first correction in a long time - all within the confines of a long-term bull market that began in March 2009. Then came the breakdown I was looking for to confirm it. Check out the head &... READ MORE
Signs of a sustainable bull market rally include strong relative performance from financial stocks, especially banks, and rising treasury yields that result from rotation away from treasuries. Both of these areas of the market are flashing warning signs right now, although technical breakdowns to confirm the weakness have not yet... READ MORE
This bull market has been humming along since March 2009, but we cannot ignore the storm clouds building on the horizon. The technical conditions have slowly deteriorated with the highly influential banking industry ($DJUSBK) reversing hard last week with a long-term negative divergence present on its weekly chart. Those weekly... READ MORE
It's my favorite time of the quarter - as a trader. I approach it like an offensive or defensive coordinator on one of the NFL playoff teams this weekend. I study recent history to find strengths and weaknesses of the market and then I anticipate "plays"... READ MORE
It's quite easy to look at the S&P 500 and see if it's rallying or not. But not every rally is created equal. Many rallies carry significant warning signs that should have you running for cover. Others simply invite you to jump on the... READ MORE
When I map out my trading strategies, I consider fundamentals, especially quarterly earnings reports, but I FOCUS on technical indicators. The study of price action helps to determine future price action, but note that it doesn't guarantee it. The basic premise of trading is to set up the... READ MORE
I rarely question a market move to the upside when banks are leading the charge. And if you're wondering how the banks performed last week as the S&P 500 broke to a fresh all-time high, check out the Dow Jones US Bank Index chart: Banks consolidated... READ MORE
I've maintained a bullish stance throughout this bull market, but I have to admit I'm beginning to get a little nervous. As a stock market historian, it's difficult for me to think bearish thoughts as we enter November because November, December and January are... READ MORE
I've mentioned it before, but I'll say it again. I LOVE trading stocks (in bull markets) that gap higher on better-than-expected revenues and earnings and very strong volume as it's a sign of great management execution and investor accumulation. That combination is difficult to... READ MORE
As a trader, this is my favorite time of each quarter. I love it when earnings begin to roll out because the increased volatility generally sets up excellent trading opportunities. In early April, I wrote about the strong earnings report that Nike (NKE) enjoyed in March and I highlighted a... READ MORE
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has had several mandates since the financial crisis began several years ago. One was to keep interest rates extraordinarily low for an extended period of time. Check. Another was to make the Fed more transparent. This one was humming along just fine....until Wednesday'... READ MORE
The past 5-6 weeks have not been overly kind to the bulls. In fact, since topping at 1709.67 at the close on August 2nd, the S&P 500 has lost more than 50 points or roughly 3%. Many are calling for the end of the four and a... READ MORE
Most areas of the stock market have enjoyed the past few months, especially since the lows of June 24th. Don't count software as one of those groups, however. At first glance, this might seem like an area of the market to avoid because of poor relative strength over... READ MORE
Transportation stocks helped lead the market rally from October 2012 through March 2013, but since that time it's been a struggle on a relative basis. Check out this relative chart: Relative support resides near the 3.80 level in the chart above - a relative close beneath this... READ MORE
In the very near-term, it's difficult to predict which way the S&P 500 is heading. Recently, we saw the Volatility Index ($VIX) spike to nearly 22 and the multi-month uptrend line on the S&P 500 was violated. Take a quick look: The biggest technical... READ MORE
Volatility plays a role in any market environment, but I always look to key areas of resistance on the VIX to help identify tradable bottoms on the S&P 500. In my last article on June 1st, I suggested that the 18-19 resistance on the VIX could prove to... READ MORE
That's the bad news. The good news is that momentum issues are more of a short-term nature than a long-term one. Still, as traders, we need to respect them just the same. First, let's take a look at the benchmark S&P 500 index on... READ MORE
So much for "Go away in May"! I've written in the past that this is VERY misleading information that's routinely provided to the investing public. For example, the month of May is one of the best months of the year to invest in small... READ MORE
Every quarter, my goal is to identify the absolute best stocks that I can find from both a technical and fundamental standpoint. I am a firm believer that stocks beating expectations, raising guidance, trading extraordinarily high amounts of volume and printing bullish candlesticks have much better odds of trading higher... READ MORE
At its highest level last week (Thursday afternoon), the VIX was up 50% from its prior Friday close. That's a HUGE spike in volatility. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), provides us a gauge of fear in the stock market. The VIX measures the market&... READ MORE
This is my favorite time of the quarter. Being a "technifundamentalist", I like finding companies that look solid both technically and fundamentally and concentrate my trading efforts there. For me, it all begins with volume. If a company reports earnings and receives a ho-hum response in terms of... READ MORE
Personally, I love the MACD. It's one of my favorite technical tools when trading. It's not perfect - nothing is - but it does provide us a snapshot of momentum of a stock or index. The MACD is nothing more than the difference between two exponential... READ MORE
In my last article, I laid out several arguments why it would make sense to be more cautious as you approach the stock market. I'm bullish for the balance of 2013 - at least as of now - but the short-term has definitely turned more dicey. One of... READ MORE
I remain bullish for 2013 and believe we could see 1700-1800 on the S&P 500 before the year is over. But I can't deny the short-term warning signs that are showing up everywhere. Let's take the issues one at a time. 1. Historical Tailwinds... READ MORE
Energy apparently has more fuel in the tank. After underperforming the past couple years, it has rocketed higher to start 2013 and was the leading sector during what was a VERY solid January. As a student of history, that January strength bodes well for the stock market during the balance... READ MORE
Technicals do change and I reserve the right to change my opinion as price action evolves, but the energy sector looks like THE ONE for 2013. I remain bullish the stock market overall so I expect most sectors will perform well in 2013. Keep in mind that money rotates from... READ MORE
Happy New Year!!! Here's to good health and good fortune in 2013! Now is the time when market pundits give their predictions for the stock market for the upcoming year. While it might be entertaining to try to figure out where the S&P 500 might finish... READ MORE
To historians, this doesn't come as a surprise. Since 1987, the Russell 2000 has produced annualized returns during the month of December of 43.38%. April is the next best month for small caps with its annualized return of 21.84%, a very distant second. Over the past... READ MORE
Homebuilders have been a leading industry group throughout the S&P 500 rally off the 2009 lows. This strength has been particularly obvious over the past year. Looking strictly at a shorter-term chart, technical indicators couldn't look much better. Check it out: While homebuilders did fall below... READ MORE
All the recent talk has centered around the effect of a potential fiscal cliff. While we may or may not be subject to a fiscal cliff, each and every one of us has been subject to the recent technical cliff, especially the one since election day. Things have gone from... READ MORE
One month ago, I discussed the increased risk of holding gold as key price resistance was being tested with a long-term negative divergence on the MACD present. That was a sign of slowing momentum and that, combined with price resistance, simply tells us to grab profits and respect the resistance... READ MORE
October has been a very strange month thus far. While most of our sectors are trading close to the flat line for the month, financials and technology are heading in opposite directions. I can't recall a two week period where the returns of these two influential sectors diverged... READ MORE
To be honest, I'm not a big fan of providing outlooks too far into the future because prices change continually. As a technician, I realize charts can change daily. Therefore, I have to be willing to change my thinking on a dime and, if you're managing... READ MORE
Living in the Washington DC area, I'm not sure which was more exciting - QE3 or RG3! The market was set up for higher prices as traders anticipated more quantitative easing. Fed Chairman Bernanke did not disappoint. By providing a third round of quantatative easing, the Fed aims... READ MORE
Before I take a look at the bigger picture, there were a couple rather bullish signs on the one year chart for gold the past few weeks. Take a look: After testing descending triangle support (you'll see that in the 5 year chart below) in mid-May, gold began... READ MORE
First, let me say that it was AWESOME meeting so many of you at Chartcon 2012 in Seattle last week. It was also great to finally meet several of the co-authors of ChartWatchers. I've been to a LOT of trading conferences and this one surpassed all of the... READ MORE
Any time the S&P 500 moves to fresh new highs, I try to determine the likelihood that the move is a sustainable one. Traders need to be in the right mindset to carry prices further. They need to be aggressive in terms of where they place their trading... READ MORE
I know many traders view the MACD to be a lagging indicator and technically it is. After all, the calculation of the MACD uses historical price data so how could it not be a lagging indicator? Well, I can only tell you that I use the MACD for advanced calls... READ MORE