In my latest article on October 18, I provided a very cautious tone but noted that volume trends remained strong - good news for the bulls! Well, short-term volume trends now have turned negative, though the really key long-term price support levels remain intact. A couple damaging technical developments... READ MORE
It's very easy to get caught up in the euphoria of this market run. I'd be careful to do that. Invested Central turned from aggressively optimistic to cautiously bullish in early May and we've maintained that more cautious stance since. Call us conservative if... READ MORE
I've cautioned recently about the risks of being long in the market. There were too many warning signs. Yes, the market could have kept its head down and pushed to higher levels. But that wouldn't have been the healthy way to extend the recent uptrend. Many... READ MORE
Autozone (AZO) is setting up rather bearishly in a bear flag formation. Divergences on the MACD within the retail space are weak at best and AZO has been a relative underperformer with its MACD unable to climb above the centerline, one of the few stocks having that difficulty. Watch the... READ MORE
In a perfect world, we'd all invest every dime in winning stocks each and every trading day. Unfortunately, I haven't seen that kind of trading world yet. So as we approach each day, we must assess the risks in the market and determine an appropriate trading... READ MORE
The cup with handle formation is a powerful continuation pattern. A prior uptrend must exist in order to rely on the cup with handle pattern. Below are two examples of cup with handle patterns that show the cup formation and the powerful breakout moves. In the case of ADSK, we&... READ MORE
China's Shanghai Composite index is swinging wildly in both directions, reminiscent of the 1999-2002 moves by the NASDAQ. From a long-term perspective, you can clearly see that trends in both directions have been exaggerated. Any time that we've seen impulsive moves in one direction... READ MORE
Once the SOX broke below the March and July lows of 2008, a new low close of 312 was established in mid-Sept 2008. After a move higher to quickly retest the earlier breakdown area, the SOX fell precipitously into late 2008. After months of trending higher, the SOX had... READ MORE
Two weeks ago, I pointed out what appeared to be the early stages of a new trend of outperformance by the financials and suggested they might be primed for a move higher to rescue the stumbling stock market. Right on cue, money rotated back into financials and we saw the... READ MORE
During the initial phase of the market recovery, from the March lows to the early May highs, financials were a primary driver of the move. Since that time, financials have lagged badly as sector rotation has caused money to flee to other, better-performing sectors over the last 8 weeks... READ MORE
This first chart really says it all: Semiconductors are trying to break out on a relative basis. They're trying to do it at a time when the major indices are attempting breakouts of their own. A combination of a relative price breakout in semiconductors while at the same... READ MORE
I believe it's the former. Thursday's selloff after the June Employment report was a bit scary, particularly if you're only looking at the magnitude of the point losses. But, in my opinion, no key support levels have been violated. That means the beginning of... READ MORE
The tech-laden NASDAQ 100 showed considerable relative strength prior to the market bottom in March 2009. Should the NDX:SPX relative ratio break above 1.625, I believe it could lead to additional market strength. -Tom Bowley Join Tom and the Invested Central Team at www.investedcentral.com. Invested... READ MORE
There are lots of questions in the market regarding possible inflation, deflation, and general market weakness. One way to hedge against all three is to play gold. Below is a long-term weekly chart that shows gold in a very bullish inverse head & shoulders continuation pattern. The current pattern... READ MORE
The semiconductor group has been very influential during the recent rally. In fact, the SOX has been outperforming the S&P 500 since late in 2008. A key relative resistance area has been approached, however. Whether the market can sustain a move higher could hinge significantly on how semiconductors... READ MORE
I've been bullish for several weeks now, but the tide is changing. We are running out of historical bullish periods until later in 2009. We have a few periods that are a bit more optimistic, but by and large the stock market remains either neutral or bearish through... READ MORE
In February, I wrote an article discussing the fact that juiced ETFs (ETFs designed to double or inversely double the returns of an underlying index) do not perform as you might expect. There was a huge response to this article and mostly positive feedback. There are plenty of reasons why... READ MORE
Ok, I understand the logic - partially. In order of S&P 500 calendar month performance since 1950, May ranks 8th out of 12 and June ranks 10th out of 12. However, both have produced positive annualized returns and in this period of very low interest rates, does it really... READ MORE
In my last article, I noted that I was "undeniably bullish". I can tell you that nothing occurred these last two weeks to change my mind. More and more corroborating technicals have lined up to suggest this current rally has legs. Perhaps the most important of them all... READ MORE
I am undeniably bullish right now. My only question at this point is whether this is a very significant bear market rally or the early legs of a new bull market. Believe it or not, I think it's the latter. As pointed out in my last article, this... READ MORE
The market performance the last two weeks was very impressive. Was it simply a sequel to the bounces we saw in October and November? That is certainly a possibility, but we saw a few sparks in this rally. For instance, the volume that exploded in financials must be respected. Perhaps... READ MORE
Significant market bottoms generally share many key characteristics. I like to see a spike in volume to get that last wave of selling in place. During this "panicked" phase, it's also important to see pessimism rise to a relative level where we can be fairly confident... READ MORE
I receive a lot of questions regarding the "ultra" shares and "ultrashort" shares and how to effectively trade them. In particular, there are always questions asking why those "juiced" ETF returns don't correspond to the indices they're supposed to track... READ MORE
We've seen this all before. The sure-fire short setups get waxed as trendline support holds. Then the bulls grow confident as the market soars only to get turned back by trendline resistance. The cycle continues to repeat itself until we get resolution. If you time your entries... READ MORE