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Here's Where Your Profits Will Be In 2020: ChartPack Update #26 (Q4 / 2019)
by Grayson Roze,
Chief Strategist, StockCharts.com
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Free money! Get your free money here! All you have to do is be willing to get off the sofa and walk over to the corner of the house where you adjust your portfolio. It's literally that easy. That's how simple it was using the ChartPack...
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AIRLINES, CRUISE SHIPS, GAMBLING, AND HOTEL STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER AS CHINESE VIRUS SPREADS -- THAT COULD LEAD TO PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR PULLED LOWER BY TRAVEL AND ENTERTAINMENT STOCKS... Yesterday's message showed bond yields falling (and bond prices rising) in a flight to the safety of government bonds. And further suggested that fears of the Chinese virus spreading was most likely behind that more defensive tone. Bond...
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I Will Guarantee You The Upcoming Earnings Performance Of These 2 Giants
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
If a company is likely to report strong results, Wall Street knows it. Analysts have met with management and discussed targets, competition, product strategies, margins, etc. If they like what they hear, they return to their offices and buy for themselves and clients. That's how it works. Astute...
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When the Inevitable Correction Comes, History Suggests It Won't Amount to Much
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
One of the basic laws of technical analysis, which I have learned the hard way, is to be very careful about calling counter-cyclical short-term moves. The primary trend dominates everything. For example, if you are in a bear market and you see a short-term oversold condition, do not assume that...
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REBOUND IN BOND PRICES SHOWS FLIGHT TO SAFETY -- THAT'S ALSO BOOSTING REITS AND UTILITIES -- AND HOMEBUILDERS -- AND KEEPING BANKS ON THE DEFENSIVE -- GOLD MINERS REBOUND WHILE COPPER SHARES DROP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURY BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP... The drop in Treasury bond yields that started a month ago is continuing. And is nearing a test of some important support levels. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 30-Year Treasury yield (TYX) having already broken a rising trendline drawn under its...
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EA Sports: It's In The Game...
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In a recent article in the RRG Blog titled "Is XLC taking over from XLK?", I identified the Communication Services sector as one of the potential new leading sectors in coming weeks. Currently, on the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, XLC is inside the improving quadrant, but...
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RRG Shows Money Rotating out of WBA into KO
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this week's episode of Sector Spotlight, I ran out of time to go over the pair trade idea that we usually have at the end of the show and I promised to write it up in an article. So here it is.
This idea was generated from...
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20 Trading Resolutions for 2020, Part 2
by Dave Landry,
Founder, Sentive Trading, LLC
In this edition of Trading Simplified, Dave reveals the next group of his trading resolutions heading into 2020. Afterwards, he presents a new edition of "The Missed, The Best or the Worst Trade of the Week" and does some housekeeping. This video was originally recorded on January 22nd,...
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PRICE OF NATURAL GAS FALLS TO FOUR-YEAR LOW -- ETFS WITH NAT GAS EXPOSURE HAVE WEAKER YEAR -- THAT INCLUDES OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION AND OIL SERVICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY STILL IN DECLINE... Despite today's snapback bounce in global stocks, one sector continues to weaken. And that's the energy sector. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) falling further below its 50- and 200-day moving averages today. And that's in a rising...
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XLE Whipsaws into LT Trend Model SELL Signal
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
(This is an excerpt from today's DecisionPoint Alert report on DecisionPoint.com)
Today's giant drop in the Energy Sector (XLE) was enough to negate a very young Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY signal. That LTTM SELL signal was generated when the 50-EMA sunk below the 200-EMA....
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Sector Spotlight: Are RRGs "Useless" for Short-Term Trading?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sSector Spotlight, I analyze the current rotations for US sectors and answer two questions from the mailbag. For one of those questions, I discuss the use of RRGs in short-term trading. This video originally aired on January 21st, 2020.
During the last few...
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EB Daily Market Report - Tuesday, January 21, 2020
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Special Event
Below is a sample of the Daily Market Report that I sent to EarningsBeats.com members this afternoon.
Also, I'd like to extend an invite to everyone to join me at 4:30pm EST today as I will host our "Sneak Preview - Q4 Earnings&...
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Dow Jones Industrials. Out of Gas?
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
In a number of cases we have studied classic Wyckoffian Overbought and Oversold conditions that emerge at the conclusion of a market move. Such a condition typically presents as Climactic action. Three or more unique events will often combine to setup exhaustion of a trend. Fulfilment of a Point and...
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Is XLC taking over from XLF?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Here's a quick update for a rotation that caught my attention this morning.
Since the end of last year, XLF has started to give up on its leading role. JdK RS-Momentum started to decline and the tail began to roll over. Last week, XLF moved from the leading...
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And The FAANG Winner For 2020 Is?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I believe all 5 FAANG stocks - Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Alphabet (GOOGL) - will end 2020 higher than they started. The question is, how much higher? Which one is THE stock to own? If you asked me which company I believe is simply the...
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Despite Recent Underperformance, the Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is Starting to Look Interesting
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market started its latest run to infinity (and beyond) in mid August and the 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) just happened to peak a week or so later. Stocks and bonds were largely on the same page from February to August as both moved higher. Correlation changed...
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NIFTY to Stay in a Defined Range; RRG Chart Points Towards this Sector Potentially Bottoming Out
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
With geopolitical tensions subsiding, the market had a quiet week as it continued to post a small amount of incremental gains. The trading range also remained capped due to the market oscillating in a capped range. While showing no volatility at all, the NIFTY made minor advancements on the higher...
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Are Small-Cap Stocks Ready for their Day in the Sun? 3 Stocks to Bank on if the Rally Continues
by Mary Ellen McGonagle,
President, MEM Investment Research
Last week, small-cap stocks were the highest performers, with the Russell 2000 gaining 2.5%. While the biggest gainers were upgraded Healthcare stocks following Wall Street's largest Medical conference, there were plenty of other areas that saw money flows signaling continued outperformance among these lower-market-cap companies.
With every...
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The Masses are Growing Too Bullish; I Smell a Short-Term Top
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Calling tops in a secular bull market advance is not typically a wise thing to do, because it rarely works. But it's very difficult to ignore sentiment readings that border on the absurd. Three months ago, the S&P 500 broke out of a bullish ascending triangle...
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Dollar Index Reaches a Crucial Technical Juncture Point
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative...
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Healthy Prognosis for Health Care
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
While sectors like Technology of received much of the praise for leading the recent market upswing, the Health Care sector is comprised of a group of five industries that all have fairly attractive chart setups. (Earlier this week, on my daily closing bell show The Final Bar, I conducted a...
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MEM Edge TV: How to Play this Frothy Market
by Mary Ellen McGonagle,
President, MEM Investment Research
On this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen shares techniques that can help you successfully trade faster-moving stocks, as well as how to use clues from the 2018 "crash" to know when the uptrend has ended. She also reviews some news-driven areas of the...
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Brazil and Russia are Both Showing Promising Tails on Relative Rotation Graphs, But Russia Wins
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In my last article for the RRG blog, I wrote about the process of how to get from an idea, whether based on RRG analysis or something else, to a position in your portfolio. That post was geared towards the observation that Growth stocks are outperforming Value stocks and focused...
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Prepping For Another Very Strong Earnings Season
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
In my last article, I discussed the possibility that we could see a short-term top form and many of those warning signs continue to persist. Of course, in a secular bull market advance, trying to predict short-term tops can be a constant disappointment as prices seemingly rise every single day....
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A Fresh Breakout Gives This Stock a Nice Shot in the Arm!
by Mary Ellen McGonagle,
President, MEM Investment Research
Insulet Corp. (PODD) had an exceptional year in 2019, as the stock powered to new highs on the heels of triple-digit growth during its first three earnings reports of the year. The insulin pump maker for diabetics peaked in price in December and has been consolidating ever since.
An increase...
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The Art of Forecasting
by Larry Williams,
Veteran Investor and Author
What is the future going to look like? In this special episode of Real Trading with Larry Williams, Larry presents the general roadmap for each market in 2020. His analysis takes into account the various seasonal influences (e.g. Christmas sales, production schedules, government action, etc.) and cycles (bond forecast,...
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SMALL CAPS AND TRANSPORTS LEAD TODAY'S RALLY -- RUSSELL 2000 iSHARES NEAR TEST OF 2018 PEAK -- RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD -- WITH HELP FROM BIOTECHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSELL 2000 ISHARES NEAR NEW RECORD... Small cap stocks are having an unusually strong day today. And are nearing a potential new record. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) trading at the highest level in sixteen months; and nearing a test of its previous...
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Are You Using Fidelity Funds in Your Portfolio? Here is the RRG
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
If you are using Fidelity Funds, a Relative Rotation Graph showing the movement of all these funds can help you find the ones that are offering potential (for outperformance). The image above shows such a Relative Rotation Graph, holding 39 Fidelity Select funds.
Going over the funds on this chart,...
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U.S. AND CHINA SIGN PHASE ONE OF TRADE DEAL -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES HIT NEW RECORDS -- LOWER BOND YIELDS BOOST UTILITIES AND REITS -- BANKS HIT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES HIT NEW RECORD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SIGNING OF TRADE DEAL BOOSTS STOCKS... Stocks celebrated the U.S. and China signing phase one of their historic trade deal today with the three major stock indexes hitting another record high. Despite some late selling this afternoon, stock indexes ended in positive territory. Stock indexes are still dealing with...
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News is Noise - 2019 Recap and Model Review
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
2019 was an easy investing year for everyone, right? The S&P 500 was up 31.5% (including dividends) while the Nasdaq Composite was up 35.2%; the best year for each since 2013. I'm sure everyone did at least that well. Many will look at the...
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Short-Term Trouble Is Brewing, Be Careful!
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Hey, I'm bullish longer-term so I'm not talking about a major bear market ahead, nothing like that. But as a short-term trader, I need to heed the signs of a potential top and I'm beginning to see them. There are a number of these...
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Special Note: These 3 Charts Have a Story to Tell; RRG Chart Points Toward Higher Alpha Generation on a Relative Basis
by Milan Vaishnav,
Founder and Technical Analyst, EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae
The headline index NIFTY is presently trading near its lifetime-high levels, returning a stellar 15% over the past 12 months and 1.08% on a Year-to-Date basis. Having said this, the loss of momentum and few negative divergences on the leading indicators are quite evident on the charts. It will...
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S&P 500 2019 Q3 EARNINGS: Market Is Way Overvalued
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The S&P 500 preliminary earnings for 2019 Q3 are available, and based upon GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principals) earnings, the S&P 500 is beyond overvalued. The following chart shows us the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&...
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Dollar Index Reaches a Crucial Technical Juncture Point
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
The Dollar Index has been rising in the last few sessions following its December decline, which has put it at a crucial technical juncture. Whichever way it breaks will have implications for commodities, gold and the relative performance of international equities to the US. A rising currency would have negative...
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A Simple Scan To Uncover Strong Stocks Pulling Back; Here Are 4 Examples
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
A common question I hear now that we've seen a significant advance in U.S. equities is, "when should I get in"? Well, we're in a secular bull market. It started in 2013 and won't end, in my opinion, until the end...
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ETF Indexing, Carl's Scan and New ChartLists on DecisionPoint.com
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
In this episode of DecisionPoint, Erin and Carl present their thoughts on the current market environment and the problems we should be aware of. Stocks above their 20/50/200-EMAs have negative divergences with the SPY price chart. Could ETF indexing be the next "bubble"? It seems the...
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From a Trading Idea To a Position
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
In my last article for the Don't Ignore This Chart blog, which I write for on Thursdays, I wrote about the clear message that the rotation of Growth vs. Value is currently sending. As those are short articles meant to point to potentially interesting situations and usage of...
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Performance Ranks vs. SCTRs: A 6 Month Test
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Let's first look at our sector SPDR funds, in SCTR order:
It's important to note that SCTR scores are calculated as of today. Performance ranks will change based on whether we look at one day performance, one week performance, six months performance, etc. SCTRs remain the...
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What Gold's Pullback Means for the 2020 Outlook
by David Keller,
President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research
The final chart that I shared in my portion of the StockCharts 2020 Market Outlook (coming soon to our YouTube channel!) was a two-year chart of gold. After a pullback in the fall to Fibonacci support, gold appeared to be resuming its long-term uptrend.Later, gold reached an extreme overbought...
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STOCKS LOOK VUNLERABLE TO SHORT-TERM PULLBACK -- DIVERGENCE FROM BOND YIELD MAY BE A WARNING -- LOWER TREASURY YIELD BOOSTS UTILITIES AND REITS -- BUT MAY CAUSE PROFIT-TAKING IN BANKS -- HOME CONSTRUCTION ISHARES TEST 2018 PEAK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHORT-TERM STOCK VIEW LOOKS OVER-EXTENDED...Despite geopolitical concerns at the start of the week between the U.S. and Iran, stocks ended the week higher. All three major stock indexes also hit new records before experiencing some minor-profit-taking on Friday. All trends remain solidly higher here and around the world....
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