Some stocks fit nicely into sectors and industry groups. And some don't. Cerner (CERN) is part of the Health Care SPDR (XLV), but it is really a technology stock that serves the healthcare industry. Namely, Cerner provides information technology solutions for the healthcare industry. More importantly, the price... READ MORE
Special Event Today Every quarter, I announce my Top 10 Stocks (equally-weighted) for my Model, Aggressive and Income portfolios. Today's the day! It all starts at 4:30pm EST. CLICK HERE for portfolio performance and registration information. Market Recap for Friday, August 16, 2019 Industrials (XLI, +1.93%... READ MORE
* Yield Curve Inversion and Recessions * Using the Economy to Forecast the Economy * What Happens to the Stock Market after an Initial Inversion? * Yield Curve Conclusion * Catch a Falling Knife, Anyone? By now, everyone and his dog is aware that the yield curve has inverted. An event such as this is... READ MORE
Monday will mark the end of my third quarter of performance for the Model Portfolio. I've easily surpassed the benchmark S&P 500 in each quarter and this last quarter was certainly no exception. The average return of the 10 equal-weighted stocks in this portfolio was 12.... READ MORE
With a 3-day working week, the markets moved along expected lines and stayed within a limited range. As anticipated, the NIFTY did not make any directional move, remaining within the 50-Week MA and 100-Week MA (as mentioned in our previous weekly note). After flirting with the 50-Week MA, which stands... READ MORE
The volatility in the markets remains as investors continue to grapple with the latest global headline. With defensive areas of the market generally posting positive results, other areas are struggling to regain their footing following sharp selloffs. Overall, cautiousness is still warranted, as the broader Indexes remain below key levels... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded on Friday with small-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 surged 2.19%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.44% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.59%. Despite these sizable rebounds, all three were down for the week and still down between 4.5% and 5.... READ MORE
On the last trading day of July the market (SPY) resolved a rising wedge pattern with the expected breakdown, and that began what has turned out to be a very turbulent August. (Note how the volume for almost every day has exceeded the one-year average.) After an initial decline of... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, August 15th at 3:47pm ET. Everyone's talking about inverted yield curves. The 10 year - 3 month yield curve turned negative a few months ago. The 10 year -... READ MORE
Relative Rotation Graphs, or "RRGs", were born while I was working as a sell-side analyst for an investment bank in Amsterdam, doing research and making calls on stocks and sectors. The clientele of the bank were all institutional investors, ranging from pension funds and endowments to hedge funds.... READ MORE
Wow, it's been a great ride here at StockCharts.com! I posted essentially this same article in my Trading Places blog a week ago, but I'm not sure how many of you follow me there. I want to make sure I reach out to everyone who... READ MORE
Sector Breadth Model Takes another Hit Today I will rank and analyze the charts for the eleven sector SPDRs, but I will first cover the sector breadth table, which reflects the internal strength/weakness within each sector. Sometimes there is a discrepancy between the sector SPDR chart and the breadth... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, August 15, 2019 There were a ton of economic reports out on Thursday, mostly positive, and that seemed to slow the onslaught of selling as our major indices finished mixed on the session. Walmart, Inc. (WMT, +6.11%) surged following better-than-expected earnings to lift the Dow... READ MORE
DEFLATIONARY COMMODITY TREND... My earlier message today showed that bond yields and stocks have been trending in the same direction for most of the last two decades. It further explained that deflationary tendencies around the start of the new century changed the bond-stock relationship that existed prior to that. Plunging... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS AND STOCKS BEFORE 2000...A lot of attention is being given to what falling bond yields mean for the U.S. economy and stock market. I've written several books on intermarket analysis that explain the impact that bond yields have on the stock market (and eventually... READ MORE
Watch for Rising Correlation ...The overall state of the stock market is the most important factor to consider when trading or investing in stocks. Broad market movements, by definition, affect most stocks. When the major stock indexes are trending lower, most stocks will also trend lower. Some will buck the... READ MORE
Special Event I am hosting a HUGE event on Monday, August 19th at 4:30pm EST as I release my Top 10 Stocks for my Model, Aggressive and Income portfolios. Each of these portfolios has crushed the benchmark S&P 500 since their respective inceptions and for a mere... READ MORE
On the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors, the tail on XLF, the Financials sector, caught my eye this morning. After a short stint through the leading quadrant, XLF had a sharp turn lower and entered the weakening quadrant, in which it spent only three days before rotating into lagging.... READ MORE
The market has been flinging us around a lot this past week. I had been looking for a better bounce off the 200-EMA than we got; usually we use the term "dead cat" bounce, but in this case it was so small that I call it a "... READ MORE
MORE HEAVY STOCK SELLING...Global stocks are under heavy selling pressure again today. Bond yields continue to drop around the world. The ten-year Treasury yield dropped below the 2-year yield for the first time since 2007 which has created a second inversion of the yield curve. The 10-year yield fell... READ MORE
The Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) has been underperforming for some time now and remains the weakest of the major index ETFs. The chart below shows IWM forming a lower high from May to July and a lower low from March to May. Adding a couple of trend lines to these... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, August 13, 2019 I received an email the other day after I discussed the rising volatility ($VIX) and likely move lower and it stated "Tom, I thought you were bullish. Why the bearish view now?". Let me address this because maybe some others are... READ MORE
Recently the stock market indexes entered a period of extreme volatility. Seemingly random events sent the indexes into rapid declines. These unexpected events blindsided many traders and investors. Stops were hit on positions that only moments prior seemed to have a safe cushion of profit. When markets become volatile and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, August 12, 2019 The flight to safety was clear on Monday. The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) tumbled once again, falling 9 basis points to 1.63%, inching closer and closer to the historic TNX lows that were set in 2012 and 2016. The all-time low... READ MORE
* Long-Term Bond Oscillators Almost Fully Stretched * Key Reversal Bars and Other Evidence Suggests Bonds are Exhausted on the Upside * The Trend is Your Friend.... Until It Isn't About a month ago, I wrote an article entitled "Bond Yields May Not Be Headed Lower After All". In... READ MORE
Special Note If you didn't have a chance to read my blog post from Saturday, "I'm Returning To My Roots At EarningsBeats.com", be sure to check it out. I'll be explaining a lot more about my decision and discussing my three... READ MORE
If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ....Rudyard Kipling The line above comes from the Poem, "If" by Rudyard Kipling. We can rephrase this when looking at stocks over the last few weeks. If a stock can hold above the late July... READ MORE
After bouncing off its 100-Week MA in the previous week, the markets attempted to take a breather and stabilize during the past week. The NIFTY was able to bounce back once again from the 100-Week MA; this pullback was aided by the oversold nature of the markets on the short-term... READ MORE
Wow, it's been a great ride here at StockCharts.com! The ride's not completely over, but I'm making a big change (and with mixed emotions) as I leave my role as Sr. Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com, effective September 15, 2019, and return to... READ MORE
STOCKS END MODESTLY LOWER AS BOND YIELDS WEAKEN...After a week of wild swings, stocks ended only modestly lower on the week. The devaluation of the Chinese yuan to the lowest level in more than a decade set the tone for a volatile week in financial markets. The 10-year Treasury... READ MORE
I know it's summer, and we generally think defensively during this time of year, but there are still very strong areas with tremendous momentum that you should be considering. I'll give you my top five industry groups with a stellar individual stock performer within each group.... READ MORE
The stock market is indeed a nuanced creature. With that in mind, I'd like to show you how to use Relative Strength to understand what this creature is actually doing. You'll find that my suggested use of Relative Strength will keep your probability of success in... READ MORE
One thing that we technical analysts like to spot at price tops is an indicator flashing a negative divergence, which is an indicator that is trending downward while price continues to trend upward. Such divergences imply that internals are eroding under the rising price, and that a price correction could... READ MORE
It was a wild week on Wall Street as the markets continued to gyrate in response to the latest trade related headlines. Those who went on vacation for the week may have been served best as a market that was down as much as 3.8% at one point, closed... READ MORE
John Murphy joined us on MarketWatchers LIVE on Thursday (8/8/19) and showed us some very interesting charts on the Sector SPDRs. The deterioration of nearly all of them prompted me to look at them using the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) in CandleGlance. Let's start by looking... READ MORE
The S&P 500 hit a new high in late July and then got pummeled in early August with a sharp decline that broke the 50-day EMA. Moving averages like this can serve benchmark levels that chartists can use to compare performance. Stocks and ETFs that did not break... READ MORE
Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, August 9th at 12:27pm ET. I was asked during an interview on StockCharts TV yesterday whether I was concerned about the Dow Theory divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Dow... READ MORE
TRADITIONAL DOW THEORY DIVERGENCE...I was asked during an interview on Stockcharts TV yesterday whether I was concerned about the Dow Theory divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports. I responded that I was. But with an additional twist to that theory which is also giving a warning... READ MORE
Volatility reared its ugly head this week with the S&P 500 falling around 6% in six days and then rebounding with a sharp three-day bounce. This is the biggest decline since the May-June correction, and the sharpest decline since early December. Looking back, the S&P 500... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, August 8, 2019 Thursday was a trend day for U.S. stocks, one in which the action was positive from start to finish. It's generally viewed bullishly and as a sign of accumulation. However, I don't know if I'd grow... READ MORE