Archived News

MEMBERS ONLY

UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS IS BOOSTING FINANCIAL STOCKS -- CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- INSURANCE ISHARES HIT SEVEN-MONTH HIGH TO LEAD XLF HIGHER -- PRUDENTIAL AND...

UPSIDE BREAKOUT IN BOND YIELDS IS BOOSTING FINANCIAL STOCKS -- CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUTS -- INSURANCE ISHARES HIT SEVEN-MONTH HIGH TO LEAD XLF HIGHER -- PRUDENTIAL AND PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL GROUP ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUTS

FINANCIALS GET A BOOST FROM RISING BOND YIELDS ... Yesterday's message showed the 10-Year Treasury yield rising to the highest level in four months. That probably explains why financials are leading the market higher today. Chart 1 shows the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) bouncing sharply off its moving average...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Rising Treasury Yields Portend Much Higher S&P 500, But Short-Term....

Rising Treasury Yields Portend Much Higher S&P 500, But Short-Term....

Market Recap for Tuesday, September 18, 2018 It was a solid day on Wall Street.  One day after seeing weakness in key areas like technology, consumer discretionary and tranportation stocks and the increasing historical likelihood of further downside action, stocks rebounded....in a big way.  Leading the charge were our...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Will Rising Yields Boost the Finance Sector?

Will Rising Yields Boost the Finance Sector?

* 2-yr Treasury Yield Hits 10-yr High. * The Mother of All Double Bottoms. * Financials SPDR Extends Stall. * Leaders and Laggards in Finance. * Stocks to Watch: WMT, TRN and GILD. ...Big Moves in Treasury Yields ...Treasury yields moved sharply higher the last few weeks with the 2-yr T-Yield ($UST2Y) and the 5-yr...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

deFANG'd?

deFANG'd?

In June we studied the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (FDN). This ETF is our proxy index for the FANG stocks. At that time FDN had accelerated into an overbought condition by throwing over its trend channel. Almost immediately weakness set in and FDN tumbled to the lower...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Disney Hits Potential Reversal Zone

Disney Hits Potential Reversal Zone

Disney hit a new high in early August and pulled back into September. The stock is part of a strong sector, consumer discretionary, and this pullback reached a potential reversal area. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the stock formed a higher low from October to April...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

20-Year Bonds ETF (TLT) is "Officially" in a Bear Market

20-Year Bonds ETF (TLT) is "Officially" in a Bear Market

I've been trumpeting the bearish horn on TLT for some time, but today marked a series of unfortunate events for TLT. Just last week we saw a new IT Trend Model Neutral signal and today, we got the LT Trend Model SELL signal. Add to that the execution...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 3% -- 20-YEAR T-BOND ISHARES BREAK SUPPORT -- THE DOW NEARS ITS JANUARY HIGH -- BOEING AND CATERPILLAR CLEAR RESISTANCE -- QQQ HOLDS 50-DAY LINE -- SEMICOND...

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD EXCEEDS 3% -- 20-YEAR T-BOND ISHARES BREAK SUPPORT -- THE DOW NEARS ITS JANUARY HIGH -- BOEING AND CATERPILLAR CLEAR RESISTANCE -- QQQ HOLDS 50-DAY LINE -- SEMICONDUCTORS CONTINUE TO STABILIZE ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH ... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rising above its twin summer peaks near 3.00% and reaching the highest level in four months. That upside move breaks the TNX out of the three-month sideways pattern that it had been trading in; and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Technology Is Teetering; How Much More Selling Is Healthy?

Technology Is Teetering; How Much More Selling Is Healthy?

Market Recap for Monday, September 17, 2018 Selling in technology (XLK, -1.25%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, -1.24%) resulted in losses across our major indices on Monday.  The NASDAQ, understandably, felt the brunt of the selling as this tech-laden index dropped 1.43%.  The Russell 2000 ($RUT) suffered the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

STOCKS LOSE SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM --AMAZON AND MCDONALDS PULL CYCLICALS LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- LED BY FEDEX, HARRIS CORP, AND PACCAR -- TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTS 3% AGAIN

STOCKS LOSE SOME UPSIDE MOMENTUM --AMAZON AND MCDONALDS PULL CYCLICALS LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS CONTINUE TO RALLY -- LED BY FEDEX, HARRIS CORP, AND PACCAR -- TEN-YEAR YIELD TESTS 3% AGAIN

SHORT-TERM SIGNS OF WEAKNESS ... The uptrend in U.S. stocks remains very much intact. However, upside momentum is weakening a bit. Chart 1, for example, shows the S&P 500 trading sideways over the past couple of weeks which is not unusual. The daily MACD lines (which are overlaid...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Now We Head Into The Most Bearish Half Of September

Now We Head Into The Most Bearish Half Of September

Market Recap for Friday, September 14, 2018 The NASDAQ struggled on Friday, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 managed to finish with slight, fractional gains.  The Russell 2000 was the clear outperformer, a bullish development as the U.S. Dollar Index ($USD) bounced off its recent price...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Procter & Gamble Attempts to Turn

Procter & Gamble Attempts to Turn

The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) has been leading the market since early May and Procter & Gamble is the largest stock in the sector (12.58%).  On the price chart, PG is in the midst of a long-term trend change and the short-term trend is also turning up. First and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Three Great Stocks And An Offer To Download My Strong Earnings ChartList

Three Great Stocks And An Offer To Download My Strong Earnings ChartList

Special Offer If you would like a copy of my Strong Earnings ChartList, simply follow these steps and I'll send it to you: 1.  You MUST be a paid Extra or Pro member of StockCharts.com as that's the only way you can download my ChartList....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

XLE Gains PMO BUY Signal - Still Too Many Negatives in Intermediate Term

XLE Gains PMO BUY Signal - Still Too Many Negatives in Intermediate Term

If you look at our DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard below you'll see that the Energy is the only sector carrying an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. All other sectors have BUY signals in both the intermediate term and long term. While Energy did log a new Price Momentum Oscillator...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class inside the leading quadrant AND it is at a positive RRG Heading

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class inside the leading quadrant AND it is at a positive RRG Heading

The Relative Rotation Graph shows the relative positions of various asset classes (ETFs) against VBINX, a Vanguard balanced index fund, as the benchmark. The long tails for Real Estate and Commodities stand out, as well as the cluster of fixed income related asset classes inside the red oval. The strongest...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

The Single Best Thing a Stock Can Do

The Single Best Thing a Stock Can Do

There are lots of indicators out there, but one metric stands head and shoulders above the rest. No, it is not a head-and-shoulders pattern. There are hundreds, if not zillions, of ways to measure the trend and identify trend reversals. Over the years, I have found trend reversals to be...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Traders Still Attracted to Strong Earnings

Traders Still Attracted to Strong Earnings

The bulls have remained in charge for a long time now in large part due to continuing, strong earnings. Even with the constant daily noise surrounding the market it almost always comes down to the bottom line. Thus when traders are looking for high reward to risk trades it makes...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DP Weekly Wrap: Gap Cleared. What's Next?

DP Weekly Wrap: Gap Cleared. What's Next?

Last week I was concerned that the VIX had topped but had failed reach the top band on the chart -- a similar configuration occurred in January before the crash. This week the VIX moved close to the top of the channel, so I think we can consider that the...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Weekly Market Review and Outlook - Large-caps Take the Lead

Weekly Market Review and Outlook - Large-caps Take the Lead

* Market Overview - New Highs Are? * Breadth Remains Strong Enough. * Large-caps Lead New High List. * SPX Turns Up after Mild Pullback. * Small-caps Lag on Upturn. * QQQ Bounces from Oversold Level. * XLY and XLV hit new highs as XLK turns Up. * XLI Continues to Lead as XLF Lags. * Bond Correlations Break...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

"Believable" Misinformation Is a Danger to Long-Term Retirement Goals

"Believable" Misinformation Is a Danger to Long-Term Retirement Goals

Many investment "truths" seem to go unchallenged but are in fact, very clearly just myths.  Buy and hold investing is a good long-term strategy, economists are good at predicting the markets, diversification will protect you from losses, compounding is the eighth wonder of the world, missing the best...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Biotechs, Computer Hardware, And Semiconductors Among Leaders On Thursday

Biotechs, Computer Hardware, And Semiconductors Among Leaders On Thursday

Market Recap for Thursday, September 13, 2018 Thursday was a strong day for U.S. equities aside from lackluster performance from small caps (Russell 2000).  The NASDAQ led the rally, gaining 0.75% as a rebound in biotechs ($DJUSBT) and semiconductors ($DJUSSC) provided some confidence for traders in those two...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DP Alert: Swenlin Trading Oscillators Are Perking Up - TLT IT Trend Model Neutral Signal

DP Alert: Swenlin Trading Oscillators Are Perking Up - TLT IT Trend Model Neutral Signal

No changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since the past week's PMO SELL signals were added. We've seen a slight rebound in the market the past few days and consequently, our short-term indicators are beginning to turn up from somewhat oversold territory. Unfortunately, intermediate-term indicators are still...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Is It A Bubble When ...

Is It A Bubble When ...

* A few thoughts on bubbles * Technical comments on the Dow Jones Internet Commerce Index * China on the brink A few thoughts on bubbles Last week, I pointed out that most of the FAANG stocks remained in uptrends, with the possible exception of Netflix and the confirmed bear market in Facebook....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Brokers Weigh on Finance Sector, Staples Stay Strong and 4 Stocks

Brokers Weigh on Finance Sector, Staples Stay Strong and 4 Stocks

* XLF Stalls at Resistance. * IAI Breaks Triangle Line (plus key stocks). * Regional Bank SPDR Falters. * XLP goes from Laggard to Leader (plus key stocks). * Checkpoint, Biomarin, Cerner and Walgreens. * Interview with Financial Sense. XLF Stalls at Resistance The Financials SPDR (XLF) led the market higher from late June to early...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class at positive RRG Heading

Equities (SPY) is the only asset class at positive RRG Heading

The Relative Rotation Graph shows the relative positions of various asset classes (ETFs) against VBINX, a Vanguard balanced index fund, as the benchmark. The long tails for Real Estate and Commodities stand out, as well as the cluster of fixed income related asset classes inside the red oval. The strongest...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Would The Real Semiconductor Group Please Stand Up?

Would The Real Semiconductor Group Please Stand Up?

Market Recap for Wednesday, September 12, 2018 It was a day of bifurcation as it's difficult to sustain a rally when your two worst sectors are financials (XLF, -0.92%) and technology (XLK, -0.42%).  As you might expect, relative weakness was found on the NASDAQ and Russell...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Henry Schein Starts to Shine

Henry Schein Starts to Shine

Outside of company specifics, the broad market environment and the sector are the biggest influences of a stock's price. The S&P 500 hit a new high recently so we are in a bull market. The Health Care SPDR (XLV) also hit a new high recently and...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

The Little Engine that Could - A Mild Pullback - Risk Appetite and Six Stocks

The Little Engine that Could - A Mild Pullback - Risk Appetite and Six Stocks

* Large-Techs and Small-Caps Still Leading. * QQQ Bounces as IJR Flags. * Junk Bonds and International Indexes. * Charts Worth Watching. * On Trend on Youtube. ....QQQ and IJR Still Leading Year-to-Date... ...The major index ETFs are in long-term uptrends and short-term downtrends. There is no denying the long-term trend because we saw fresh...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

AAPL And AMZN Rebound, But Will Facebook Deliver Another Internet Blow?

AAPL And AMZN Rebound, But Will Facebook Deliver Another Internet Blow?

Market Recap for Tuesday, September 11, 2018 All of our major indices finished the day higher, although there was little back and forth action.  The Dow Jones traded in a 50 point range most of the afternoon.  Still, higher is higher.  Strength on Tuesday came from three sectors - energy...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Industrials Hit 6 Month High To Lead; Get A Copy Of My Strong Earnings ChartList

Industrials Hit 6 Month High To Lead; Get A Copy Of My Strong Earnings ChartList

Special Offer If you would like a copy of my Strong Earnings ChartList, simply follow these steps and I'll send it to you: 1.  You MUST be a paid Extra or Pro member of StockCharts.com as that's the only way you can download my ChartList....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DP Bulletin #1: Momentum Moves Bearish on Scoreboard Indexes - SELL Signals Reinstated

DP Bulletin #1: Momentum Moves Bearish on Scoreboard Indexes - SELL Signals Reinstated

As of today's market close, all four Scoreboards have moved back to PMO SELL signals. The OEX was the first to go on Thursday, followed by the SPX and NDX on Friday and the Dow today. Below are the daily charts for all four indexes with the new...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Semi-Tough

Semi-Tough

Back in December of 2017 we asked ‘Do Semiconductors Still Compute?’. An epic rally that began in 2016 had Climactic qualities as SMH accelerated into year-end 2017. Two different PnF counts were fulfilled on that rally surge. After a sharp break on high volume it appeared the rally had run...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Healthcare Stocks Appear Stretched; Top Monday Trade Setup Candidates

Healthcare Stocks Appear Stretched; Top Monday Trade Setup Candidates

Market Recap for Friday, September 7, 2018 U.S. stock indices and most sectors were flat to slightly lower to close out last week.  The small cap Russell 2000 was down just 0.08%, while the Dow Jones was the biggest loser, dropping 0.30%.  Among sectors, utilities (XLU, -1....   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Facebook Does An About Face, But What About The Other FAANG Stocks?

Facebook Does An About Face, But What About The Other FAANG Stocks?

* NASDAQ breadth data offers conflicting signals * Bullish FAANG Stocks * De-fanged stock NASDAQ breadth data offering conflicting signals We have seen some attention paid to tech stocks as they have corrected in the last week or so. The so called FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Netflix) have been...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Weight of the Evidence - 3

Weight of the Evidence - 3

In the past two articles on Weight of the Evidence my goal was to show you how you can use Tushar Chande’s Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a trend model.  I stated previously that my digital weight of the evidence also provides levels that define buying parameters, stop loss...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

DP Weekly Wrap: A Gap I Don't Like

DP Weekly Wrap: A Gap I Don't Like

Last week we were looking at a possible bearish island reversal on one hand, and nascent parabolic advance on the other. This week's decline filled the island gap, making the island proposition moot. The decline also reached down to touch the parabolic arc, but so far that '...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Weekly Market Review and Outlook (with Video) - Industrials Perk up as Defense Leads

Weekly Market Review and Outlook (with Video) - Industrials Perk up as Defense Leads

* Market Overview. * S&P 500 Retreats from All Time High. * Would you have the Nerve? * Selling Pressure Contained. * XLI Exceeds Late August High. * Aerospace & Defense iShares Hits New High. * Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Break Out. * XLU and XLP Lead and Lag. * Always Defer to the Price Chart. * Utilities,...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

I Am WILDLY Bullish Long-Term And Here's Why

I Am WILDLY Bullish Long-Term And Here's Why

Reminder If you'd like to subscribe to my blog, simply scroll down to the bottom of this article, type in your email address and click the green "Subscribe" button.  It's completely FREE, spam-free and the best way to let me know you enjoy my...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

No More All "Green" Scoreboards - OEX Loses PMO BUY Signal

No More All "Green" Scoreboards - OEX Loses PMO BUY Signal

The market in general is pulling back since making all-time highs last week so it isn't surprising to see PMOs now in decline. The OEX couldn't hold on to its PMO BUY signal and I suspect another decline will start flipping the other three indexes'...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

CONSUMER DISRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- BUT IT MAY BE OVERSTATING SECTOR'S STRENGTH -- ITS EQUAL WEIGHTED ETF IS LAGGING THE XLY BY AN USUALLY WIDE GAP OF 11% -- OUTSIZED...

CONSUMER DISRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR -- BUT IT MAY BE OVERSTATING SECTOR'S STRENGTH -- ITS EQUAL WEIGHTED ETF IS LAGGING THE XLY BY AN USUALLY WIDE GAP OF 11% -- OUTSIZED GAINS IN AMAZON AND NETFLIX MAY EXAGGERATING ITS 2018 PERFORMANCE

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR IS YEAR'S STRONGEST SECTOR ... Chart 1 shows the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) trading near a new record. Its 2018 gain of 18% makes it the year's strongest sector. That puts the XLY ahead of technology (16%) and healthcare (12%) for the year. In...   READ MORE 

MEMBERS ONLY

Technology-Driven Selloff Isn't A Concern....Yet

Technology-Driven Selloff Isn't A Concern....Yet

Market Recap for Wednesday, September 5, 2018 There were a couple things that stood out to me regarding Wednesday's action.  First, the recovery off the intraday low wasn't insignificant.  However, the stocks driving most of the recovery were in defensive areas.  Utilities (XLU, +1.40%) and...   READ MORE