Today, both the Materials SPDR (XLB) and the equal-weight Materials ETF (RTM) posted new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signals. With talk of a trade war, many investors believe that the Materials sector could provide a decent hedge. I don't know if that is true, but I do... READ MORE
MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE STILL CLIMBING ... All three of the major U.S. stock indexes are building on last week's gains. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials moving further above 25K and nearing a test of its June high. The Dow is being led higher by Johnson &... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 16, 2018 The Dow Jones saw buying late in Monday's session, pushing this index of giants into positive territory. Leadership was clear. Large money center banks performed well and JP MorganChase (JPM) was easily the best perfoming Dow Jones stock, gaining nearly 4%... READ MORE
* SPY Extends Laborious Uptrend. * Back in the Saddle. * QQQ Maintains Leadership with New High. * Healthcare Takes the Lead in July. * Industrial Sector Pulls Ahead of Finance. * Aerospace & Defense ETF Turns Up within Range. * Mind the Gap in the Broker-Dealer iShares... ... The major index ETFs were in long-term uptrends and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 13, 2018 The Dow Jones moved back above 25000 and the S&P 500 cleared 2800 for the first time since February 2nd on the backs of two unlikely heroes. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), the newest member of the Dow Jones, and Walt Disney... READ MORE
I’m going to return to discuss the final part of my Weight of the Evidence. As a reminder this is a collection of price and breadth measures designed to tell me if the Nasdaq Composite is in an uptrend or not. You might want to review some of the... READ MORE
Watching the Relative Rotation Graph of the 30 Dow stocks, there are a few observations that can be made. To begin with, there is a high concentration of stock inside the leading quadrant, including some mega-cap names like AAPL and MSFT and in the improving quadrant. The bottom half of... READ MORE
While some major indexes have pushed to new high ground recently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) has remained a notable laggard. This creates a tactical dilemma for Wyckoffians. Is the weaker Dow Jones Industrial Average offering a ‘tell’ by lagging the broad market? Or is the industrial (thirty) stock... READ MORE
On Friday the Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) for long bonds (TLT) generated a long-term BUY signal. How that happens is that the 50EMA crosses up through the 200EMA, an event more commonly known as the "Golden Cross," because big money is sure to follow (just kidding). When we... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS CHALLENGING MARCH HIGH ... Stocks are ending the week on a positive note. The Nasdaq hit a new record high yesterday. Today's rally is being led by the Dow and S&P 500. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trying to end above... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, July 12, 2018 Those looking for a bear market to develop were dealt a serious blow on Thursday as the NASDAQ forged to yet another all-time high. The Russell 2000 was on the verge of doing so earlier this week as it reached an intraday all-time... READ MORE
The NDX killed it today with a 1.69% move higher and logging a new all-time high. The other major Scoreboard indexes managed good numbers, but none above 1% or logging all-time highs. At issue with all of the Scoreboard indexes are extremely overbought short-term indicators. These conditions need to... READ MORE
* A look at the primary and secular trends * Interesting momentum study points to lower bond yields * Bond Net New Highs set to pounce in either direction * Slight softening in confidence hints at lower yields In the June and July editions of my Market Roundup webinars I pointed out the possibility... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, July 11, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +0.90%) moved higher in an otherwise down day, highlighted by the latest trade headlines in which the U.S. announced another $200 billion in Chinese imports to be subject to a 10% tariff. While the initial reaction was obviously negative,... READ MORE
I mentioned in yesterday's blog that I was expecting the PMO BUY signals to come in on the Dow and NDX. Well, NDX missed the positive crossover by less than a tenth of a point, but I suspect it'll come in tomorrow barring a particularly bad... READ MORE
MOST COMMODITIES ARE IN THE RED ... Commodity prices have been falling sharply over the last month. And Chart 1 shows where most of the selling has taken place. The black line shows the Invesco Commodity Tracking Fund (DBC) still 4% higher since the start of the year. That's... READ MORE
On the Relative Rotation Graph that shows all members of the Health Care sector (XLV) against the XLV benchmark, REGN stands out in a positive way. On the weekly RRG, the stock is positioned inside the improving quadrant, close to leading and moving at a strong RRG-Heading while the week-to-week... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 10, 2018 The good news from yesterday is that the Russell 2000 hit an intraday all-time high at 1708.56, edging out intraday highs from June 20th and 21st. The bad news? Sellers took over from there. The record took place in the opening minutes... READ MORE
We've had a few signal changes arrive the past few trading days that you should be aware of. While these new green arrows look promising, the DecisionPoint Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) suggest we may experience some short-term weakness before pushing past overhead resistance at June price tops. The... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, July 9, 2018 In the famous words of Yogi Berra, it was "deja vu all over again" as financials (XLF, +2.29%) and industrials (XLI, +1.86%) returned to the top of the sector leaderboard. Life insurance ($DJUSIL, +2.78%) and banks ($DJUSBK, +2.... READ MORE
FINANCIALS ARE THE DAY'S STRONGEST SECTOR ... My June 30 message suggested that the market needed more help from financial stocks and industrials if it was going to gain ground during the second half of the year. It's getting help from both today. Let's start... READ MORE
Relative Rotation Graphs are not only used to look at sector-rotation or help with asset allocation decisions but can also help you to pinpoint potential forex trades. Most currency traders are short-term orientated so the RRG above is a daily chart showing the rotation of the Norwegian Krone and the... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, July 6, 2018 It was a solid close to the week on Friday, especially on the tech-laden NASDAQ where that index rose 101 points, or 1.34%. Biotechnology stocks ($DJUSBT, +3.74%) surged on news of positive trial results for Biogen's (BIIB, +19.63%... READ MORE
I cannot tell you the number of times an investor has asked, “Considering the difficulties of the past few months, do you still believe in your investment process?” These questions always concerned me because I never once considered not believing in my process for managing money just because of short-term... READ MORE
This is an extended version of the recent RRG article in Chartwatchers "Checking out the land down under on a Relative Rotation Graph". Even if your investment portfolio is tied to a specific country or region it makes sense to keep an eye on developments around your geographical... READ MORE
During my most recent guest appearance on MarketWatchers LIVE (7/5/18) I introduced a case study of intraday trading with the Wyckoff Method. Intraday trading is not every traders cup of tea, but even if you are not a short term trader there are benefits to studying the intraday... READ MORE
* Technical picture is ripe for a turn, but the main trend is up right now * Tuesday’s outside day could be the first domino * Negative divergences between several energy components Technical picture is ripe for a turn, but the main trend is up right now The oil price remains in... READ MORE
STOCKS START SECOND HALF ON A STRONG NOTE ... After a shaky month of June, stocks started the second half of the year on a positive note. And moving average lines continue to play an important role in that stronger start. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials ending the week on... READ MORE
Let's first talk about a trading strategy that doesn't work. I steer clear of companies that struggle to meet Wall Street expectations and there's a very simple reason why. Management helps Wall Street set their expectations. So when companies miss their targets, it'... READ MORE
On the Relative Rotation Graph above I have grouped a selection of world equity market indices, mainly some big regions, and put them against the Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VTWSX) as the benchmark. What immediately grabs our attention, or at least mine is the fact that this selection is... READ MORE
On a day when stocks are rising, and all eleven market sectors are in the black, healthcare is the standout performer. This chart shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) rising to the highest level since the middle of March. The bottom box shows the XLV/SPX ratio rising to the... READ MORE
The market has been in stall mode for quite some time now. Even though the S&P perked up some on Friday it's still hanging out near levels seen in early January, going nowhere fast.At the same time the market has had all kinds of reasons... READ MORE
I've presented my favorite PMO scan numerous times during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but also in articles. Here's a link to my article on that scan. However today I wanted to present my "Chart Breakouts" scan. I use this scan during the MarketWatchers LIVE... READ MORE
Wedges are a favorite of mine because they are so reliable. For example, there is a high probability that rising wedge formations will resolve downward, so it is usually best to wait for this resolution and the aftermath before going long. Two weeks ago SPY broke down from a rising... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT... On a day when stocks are rising, and all eleven market sectors are in the black, healthcare is the standout performer. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) rising to the highest level since the middle of March. The bottom box shows the XLV/... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, July 5, 2018 U.S. equities rallied on Thursday, led by the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which gained 1.12% and 1.15%, respectively. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 tacked on lesser gains. Technology (XLK, +1.41%), consumer staples (XLP, +1.38%) and... READ MORE
Although we haven't quite seen any changes on the DP Scoreboards in the "momentum" category, detailed analysis of the PMO in all three timeframes shows signs that components of these indexes are gaining positive momentum. The PMO Analysis charts below are in the DecisionPoint Market Indicator... READ MORE
MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE STILL HOLDING... Major stock index continue to find support around moving average lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising 181 points (+0.75%) to close at 24356. That was enough to put it just above its 200-day moving average. Other stock indexes did even better.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, July 3, 2018 U.S. equities started the holiday-abbreviated trading session on Tuesday quite nicely with gains across each of our major indices. But that strength deteriorated throughout the day and, by the close, all but the small cap Russell 2000 had finished in negative territory.... READ MORE
A good start of the day, at least for me is to go to the StockCharts.com dashboard and look at the Top 10, most active, market movers, in the S&P 500 index. The table gives a quick idea of what has happened the previous day. From there... READ MORE