The DecisionPoint Scoreboards nearly made it to "all green" as the NDX was the first to manage a PMO crossover on the weekly chart and the others seemed sure to follow until this recent pullback. To make matters worse, the Dow which had just managed a PMO BUY... READ MORE
* New bull market high for US equity relative action * International markets are breaking down * Commodities lose some upside momentum US equities have been hit hard so far this week, but that’s nothing compared to China, Emerging Markets, Europe and other markets around the globe. As a result, we are... READ MORE
Since mid-May the renewable energy stocks have tumbled. This may have come as an unexpected surprise to many. Let’s do a mini-blog case study of the Dow Jones Renewable Energy Equipment Index ($DWCREE) to determine if there was advance warning of trouble brewing. As Wyckoffians we are really in... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 18, 2018 Trade war fears are picking up again this morning and it's rattling equities worldwide. It created a bit of a stir on Monday morning as futures were weak, signaling a rough start for U.S. equities. That's exactly what... READ MORE
Note 1: This article was posted earlier as part of the ChartWatchers newsletter last weekend. One paragraph and an up-to-date daily version of the Relative Rotation Graph for asset classes has been added to the bottom of this article. Note 2: A pre-populated universe for Asset Allocation has been added... READ MORE
* Correction Time? * XLI and XLF Resume their Lagging Ways. * Charting the Big Five Sectors. * Watch the Risk-Off Assets. * On Trend and Stocks to Watch. ... The Single Biggest Influence on Individual Stocks There are several influences on the price of an individual stock, but one influence rises far above the others.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 15, 2018 We finished Friday's action with lower major indices, primarily the result of a very weak energy sector (XLE, -2.15%). Unfortunately, that masked one of the best absolute and relative performance days in consumer staples (XLP, +1.28%) since the January... READ MORE
Ross Stores was hit hard with a high volume gap down in late May, but immediately firmed and recovered. The stock broke out of a long triangle in early June and then stalled with a small flag last week. Basically, we have two bullish continuation patterns at work. The long-term... READ MORE
On Friday, the weekly charts went "final". With that finalization, the NDX which had been carrying a positive Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover throughout the week, finally posted the IT PMO BUY signal on its DP Scoreboard. Additionally, sentiment charts were very interesting this week. The National Association... READ MORE
It seems simple enough. Buy stocks/ETFs that are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500. Well, that's part of it for sure. But it really goes a lot deeper than that. StockCharts.com provides you a myriad of ways to evaluate relative strength. I tend to use... READ MORE
The Industrials SPDR (XLI) has struggled in 2018 and is pretty much unchanged year-to-date. Despite flat performance this year, a pair of bullish continuation patterns are taking shape. Let's look at the key levels to watch going forward. Long-term, the trend is still up because the PPO(50,... READ MORE
The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged... READ MORE
Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, June 14th at 11:39am EST. The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a... READ MORE
I have found over many years of trading that it is so much more difficult to make money shorting stocks than going long. With the exception of the Dot.com bubble between 2000-2002 and the bear market of 2008-2009 during the Great Recession we've been in a bull... READ MORE
As Wyckoffians we often generate a hypothesis regarding the forces that propel stocks and industry groups higher (or lower). Homebuilders enjoyed a major uptrend in 2016-17. In this case study from 2016; interest rates were near historically low levels, thus we could conclude that home purchases would be stimulated. And... READ MORE
I’ve seen this play out time and time again at seminars, conferences, lectures, and courses. Remarkably, the conversation always begins with the exact same seemingly harmless five-word question: “But what if you just…” Those five words prompt me to step up on the soapbox and launch into the “tinkering... READ MORE
The Pullback Rally Analysis is not a ranking measure but a technique for determining the relative strength of issues by looking at the most recent rally from a previous pullback. Measure the amount of the pullback in percent, then measure the current rally up to the current date in percent.... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 14, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.24%) led a bifurcated market on Thursday, but the real story of June has been consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.04%). The XLY has not only posted gains each of the 10 trading days in June thus far, but it'... READ MORE
* S&P 500 Digest Short-term Gains. * QQQ Leads with New High Expansion. * IJR Stalls above Breakout Zone. * Three Big Leaders and Two Laggards. * XLF Turns Down from Resistance. * XLI Tests Flag Breakout. * XLV Extends on Breakout. * Bonds Get a Bounce. * USO Slowly Bounces off Key Retracement. * The Noose Tightens... READ MORE
ECB WON'T RAISE RATES FOR ANOTHER YEAR ... The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a more hawkish tilt. That had the immediate effect of boosting Treasury bond yields... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, June 13, 2018 Another Fed day is in the rear view mirror and now we know the following. The Fed expects to raise interest rates two more times in 2018, bringing the total number of hikes to 4, as opposed to the 3 they discussed in... READ MORE
* Gasoline ETF Firms after Pullback * Notes on RSI Parameters and Levels * Three Inside Weeks for Gold * Bollinger Contractions for GLD and GDX * Dollar Gets Extended * Unadjusted REIT SPDR Hits Reversal Zone * Questions, Comments or Feedback? ... Gasoline ETF Firms after Pullback The US Gasoline ETF ($UGA) has a mean-reversion setup working... READ MORE
The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain bullish, except for intermediate-term PMO SELL signals. Those should be replaced by BUY signals soon as all four indexes have rising PMOs. In fact, the NDX already has the PMO positive crossover on its weekly chart, it just has to remain by the close on Friday... READ MORE
* Stocks are rising against gold and that’s bullish * The long-term trend points to gold under-performing stocks * Stock/Gold ratio breaks out from a right-angled broadening formation The price of gold, over the short-term, typically rises and falls on global tensions or lack thereof. Longer-term trends though, are more influenced... READ MORE
Rockwell Automation reversed its downtrend with a big surge in May, worked off overbought conditions and looks poised to resume its uptrend. The chart below shows ROK with a high-volume plunge in late April, a high-volume reversal day and a sharp recovery in early May. This recovery extended with high... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, June 12, 2018 The Dow Jones lost one point yesterday, but our other key indices finished with gains, led higher by the NASDAQ (+0.57%) and small cap Russell 2000 (+0.46%). It was another boring day of bullish action with perhaps one slight negative -... READ MORE
I have alerts set on my ChartList of sector SPDRs that alert me to Trend Model and PMO signal changes (Check our Support area for directions on how to set these). Today the alarm triggered when the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) had a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. An LT... READ MORE
Distribution is the term often referred to as the topping process in the stock market. Before we go any further I want to say this loud and clear: I am not calling a top in the market. As you hopefully know by now I am just a humble trend follower.... READ MORE
The Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation of the ten S&P 500 sector ETFs (SPDR family) against the S&P 500 index ETF (SPY). The rotation of the technology sector (XLK) back into the leading quadrant after a short period of rotation through the weakening quadrant is... READ MORE
* Two Breakout Zones to Watch on SPY. * On Trend Preview. * TLT Affirms Resistance. * Banks and Utilities Cue off Bond Market. * Finance Sector and Big Banks Continue to Lag. * Aetna Breaks Out of Bull Flag. * Questions, Comments or Feedback? Two Zones to Watch on SPY ...The S&P 500 SPDR... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, June 11, 2018 U.S indices finished with across-the-board gains on Monday despite a final 30 minute selloff that saw the Dow Jones trim a 70 point gain down to just 5 points. Still, stocks managed to start the week with minor gains ahead of a... READ MORE
* NYSE breakout * Multi-sector breakouts * Green shoots coming through for Europe and emerging markets NYSE breakout Monday’s action has seen the NYSE Composite, the $NYA complete a 4-month reverse head and shoulders pattern. If that breakout holds, and there are few grounds for suspecting that it won’t, it’s... READ MORE
TRANSPORTS REACH FIVE-MONTH HIGH -- WHILE UTILITIES FALL ... The Dow Industrials exceeded their May high last week to reach the highest level in three months. And are higher again today. But today it's the transports' turn to lead the Dow family of stocks higher. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
Danaher (DHR) is a conglomerate that is the 15th largest component (1.91%) of the Health Care SPDR (XLV) and the 5th largest component (5.43%) of the Medical Devices ETF (IHI). XLV broke out last week and IHI has been leading for some time. The stock is also looking... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, June 8, 2018 In a rare development, consumer staples (XLP, +1.23%) led Wall Street higher on Friday. Over the past three months, the XLP has fallen 5.78% and no other sector is close to consumer staples' ineptitude. The XLP has been the shunned... READ MORE
Rising wedge formations normally resolve downward, but sometimes they don't. While I was expecting the normal bearish resolution of the current rising wedge, the market wasn't having it, and it pressed higher for a breakout on Wednesday. There has been no follow through yet, but price... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR TURNS UP... Last Friday's message suggested that the healthcare sector appeared to be basing. But it needed a close over its April/May highs to turn its trend from "sideways" to "up". Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) exceeding those... READ MORE
* Strong, but Getting Frothy. * S&P 500 High-Low Percent Exceeds 10%. * S&P 500 Extends Breakout. * QQQ and IJR Hit New Highs. * Two New Highs and Two Breakouts. * Sector SPDRs Mask Strength Within. * Setting Resistance for Treasury Bond ETFs. * A Mean-Reversion Setup in Oil. * Notes from the Art&... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, June 7, 2018 The Dow Jones gained 95 points, extending its recent rally, on the strength of McDonalds Corp (MCD) and Chevron Corp (CVX). MCD announced layoffs and Wall Street cheered the likely improvement to its bottom line by sending MCD higher by 4.37%: MCD... READ MORE
EURO CONTINUES TO REBOUND FROM IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT ... Global stocks fell on Tuesday May 29 on concerns that a new election in Italy might provide a threat to the eurozone. My message on the following day (May 30) wrote about global stocks starting to recover from that scare. Included in... READ MORE