In October 1962 I was a 21-year-old B-47 aircraft mechanic in the Strategic Air Command. One morning that month I reported for duty only to find the aircraft ramp covered with bombers loaded with nuclear weapons. Welcome to the Cuban Missile Crisis. It was pretty tense for a few weeks,... READ MORE
Today there were three signal changes: The S&P 100 Index ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signals change from BUY to NEUTRAL. And the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) intermediate-term PMO BUY signal changed to SELL. The two daily charts of $OEX and $NDX below... READ MORE
This phrase is most often heard in reference to lawmakers and bureaucrats in Washington, DC, but I think it’s an appropriate reflection of what many investors struggle with as well. As an investor, you’ll seldom be destroyed by outside forces. If you falter and lose your assets, more... READ MORE
.... RSP Takes a Big Hit after New High .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Lead Breadth Lower .... AD Volume Lines Turn Down .... SPY Closes below 50-day EMA .... IJR Pulls Back within Grinding Uptrend .... Sector Balance Remains Long-term Bullish .... Finance, Technology and Utilities Lead .... Industrials-Healthcare Correct within Uptrends .... Consumer Staples is the Second Weakest... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, August 10, 2017 Technology (XLK, -1.97%) and financials (XLF, -1.78) led a steep selloff in equities on Thursday. It wasn't the worst day of the year for the NASDAQ, but it was pretty close. That aggressive index lost both its 20 day... READ MORE
* More stock market indicators showing weakness * Bonds close to a breakout * Commodity rally over? * Dollar bottoming or about to break down? More stock market indicators showing weakness Last week I made the case for a correction in the market based on some specific indicators that has started to flash some... READ MORE
Today the S&P 100 Index ($OEX) daily PMO crossed down through its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. Of the four major indexes on our score board, three have switched to short-term PMO SELL signals. Additionally, the S&P 500 Index 5EMA crossed down... READ MORE
After the bell on Wednesday, NetEase.com (NTES) was hammered as its Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $3.86 fell short of Wall Street consensus estimates of $4.07. While that was bad enough from a fundamental perspective, the technical conditions had already begun to deteriorate in the form of... READ MORE
SMALL AND MID SIZE STOCK INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT... Yesterday's message showed small and midcap stock indexes testing support at their July lows, and warned that any further weakness would be bad for them and the rest of the market. Both indexes have broken support levels and are now... READ MORE
---- An Attempt to Lower the Drawdowns ---- Strategy Review ---- Consulting, Software and Data ---- Rate-of-Change versus RSI ---- A High-Flyer versus a Boring Uptrend ---- Testing with 14-day RSI Rank ---- Conclusions and Caveat Emptor ---- Scan Code ---- An Attempt to Lower the Drawdowns ---- Last week... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 9, 2017 U.S. equities were under early fire on Wednesday, but there was a steady recovery throughout the balance of the day with little technical damage done by session end. The Russell 2000 was one exception, however, as that aggressive small cap index closed... READ MORE
** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** I recently received a question from one of the attendees of yesterday's webinar (recording available here). I was reviewing the charts in our DP Chart Gallery... READ MORE
Today on the daily chart the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) PMO dropped below its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. This is not what I would call a robust crossover. It is more the inevitable result of price running flat to slightly down, which causes the PMO and... READ MORE
S&P 500 PULLS BACK ... Global stocks are in the red today, which continues the profit-taking that started yesterday afternoon. Yesterday's downside reversal day in U.S. stock indexes on rising volume signaled the likelihood of more profit-taking. Foreign stocks in Europe and Asia are falling more... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are both having good years with GLD up around 10% year-to-date and TLT up around 7%. As the chart below shows, these two are positively correlated over the past 12 months. The indicator window shows the 63-day Correlation Coefficient... READ MORE
Reminder If you'd like to receive my blog article each trading day, just as it's published, be sure to scroll down to the bottom of this article, type in your e-mail address and click the "Notify Me" button. It's FREE and you... READ MORE
Today on the daily chart the $SPX PMO dropped below its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. More notable, price opened and traded higher, but then it reversed and closed lower -- a key reversal day. The line chart shows the modestly overbought PMO topping, then falling... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, August 7, 2017 There's nothing wrong with the Dow Jones moving to all-time highs for the ninth consecutive trading session. However, higher prices on the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000 show traders' appetite for riskier investments and it's that risk... READ MORE
Here is the scenario: You believe we are near a top in the market. I won’t bother to discuss what makes you think that, but if you do, then here is a sampling of things to consider. I was originally going to do this in an enumerated list, but... READ MORE
.... Another Mean-Reversion Setup for IJR and MDY .... Crude and XES Get a Divorce .... XES Tests June-July Lows .... Interview with Tobias Levkovich .... Lazard Hits Support after Pullback .... Watts Water Technologies Turns Up .... Analog Devices Consolidates within Uptrend .... Qorvo Reveres Near Rising EMA .... Two For the Road (CPSI and HLT) .... Another Mean-Reversion... READ MORE
** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** With the market bottoming and taking a positive turn, I decided it might be a good time to review the results of one of my favorite and nicely... READ MORE
Stocks and bonds are both having a good year with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up 11.91% year-to-date and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) rising 6.53% since January. The advance in SPY has been much steadier than the choppy advance in TLT, but both sport... READ MORE
Special Note I will be joining John Hopkins, President of EarningsBeats.com, for a special earnings-related webinar that begins at 4:15pm this afternoon, just after the market closes. I'll be providing several of my favorite stocks from the current parade of earnings so please join me and... READ MORE
Fresh off yet another stellar quarterly earnings report, Ferrari's (RACE) stock price has hit the accelerator once again. Its ascent truly has been remarkable as RACE has gone from 31 to 111 in 3.2 seconds. Okay, the stock price hasn't really moved that fast, but... READ MORE
* Bullish percent indicators are starting to deteriorate * Short-term confidence may be turning * Small caps getting smaller? * Oversold Dollar Index bounces from support Bullish Percent Index indicators are starting to deteriorate This week we saw the financial media and President Trump glorify the fact that the DJIA had exceeded 22,000... READ MORE
Everyone likes a good meal, especially an all you can eat buffet. And if you are a trader, you've just been served up an earnings smorgasboard. So far, per Thomson Reuters, over 400 companies in the S&P have reported for Q2, 2017, with almost 73% beating... READ MORE
IS THIS THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE? ... Friday's job report saw 209,000 new jobs added during July which was well above expectations. Hourly earnings also saw a July again of 0.3% which attracted the most attention. That, however, leaves the year over year rise in wages at... READ MORE
A month ago, I posted an article looking at 3 NASDAQ 100 stocks that were looking to make technically significant breakouts. Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) had a cup in play that, if broken, would measure to 5.90, or nearly 8%. It broke out on heavy volume and hit a... READ MORE
DOW HITS NEW RECORD WHILE NASDAQ HOLDS BACK ... The Dow Industrials continue to lead the market higher. Chart 1 shows the Dow ending the week at a new record. Its weekly gain of 1.2% led all other market indexes. Its 14-day RSI line, however, shows the Dow now in... READ MORE
The price relative, or ratio chart, is handy for measuring relative performance, but it does not always reflect the trend for the underlying securities. For those unfamiliar, the RSP:SPY ratio measures the performance of the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) relative to the S&P 500... READ MORE
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been moving steadily to record highs, I have observed a persistent erosion of underlying support as expressed by 52-Week New Highs for the DJIA component stocks. The New High peak in March represents the highest level reached recently, and we can see... READ MORE
Last week it looked as if the market was beginning to form a top, but that result still hasn't been realized. SPY continued to churn sideways, and the daily PMO came within a hair of crossing down through its signal line. There is still evidence that there is... READ MORE
Today the weekly PMO for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) crossed up through its signal line and generated a weekly PMO BUY signal. We can see on the weekly chart that the PMO has been running flat well above the zero line since April, which indicates that price has... READ MORE
It’s been my experience as a full-time trader over the decades that investing muscles need to take a vacation regularly. I’ve learned the hard way that vacations must be part of my money management routines. If I procrastinate and wait until I realize I need a vacation, the... READ MORE
.... Large-caps Continue to Lead .... An Ugly Price Relative, but a Nice Uptrend .... SPY and QQQ Stall Near All Time Highs .... Small-caps: We Seen this Movie Before .... Utes Outperform Bonds and Regionals Lag Badly .... XLF Rises as 10-yr T-Yield Falls - KRE Lags .... XLI Breaks Flag Resistance .... XLP Breadth Weakens and... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, August 3, 2017 The Dow Jones was once again able to eke out a meager 9 point gain to establish yet another record closing high, but other indices were unable to keep up. The more aggressive Russell 2000 and NASDAQ fell by 0.54% and 0.... READ MORE
First, please understand that any time you trade a small biotech company, there are considerable risks attached. These types of stocks are certainly not for everyone. One size does not fit all. However, if you enjoy taking higher risk in an attempt to score high returns quickly, then take a... READ MORE
---- Reworking the Momentum-Rotation Strategy ---- Setting the Benchmark ---- System Ground Rules ---- Four Extra Filters ---- Consulting, Software and Data ---- Charts with Trading Signals ---- Rate-of-Change Ranking Results ---- Testing a Trailing Stop ---- Conclusions and Caveat Emptor ---- Scan Code ---- Reworking the Momentum-Rotation Strategy I... READ MORE
ENERGY PRICES ROSE DURING JULY... A report on Tuesday covered economic conditions during the second quarter. One of the things it showed was continuing low inflation, which remains well below the Fed's target of 2%. One of the factors mentioned was falling energy prices. Naturally, the media reported... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, August 2, 2017 The action on Wednesday was quite boring once again, despite hundreds of companies reporting their quarterly results. The Dow Jones jumped another 52 points to a fresh record high - which it's been seeing daily - and it pierced 22000 for... READ MORE