Northrop Grumman (NOC) has risen ten fold since this bull market began in 2009 and its current bullish pattern suggests that this defense company is not ready to roll over just yet. It's been a struggle to clear 250 price resistance the past 6-7 months, but the rising... READ MORE
* Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers * Dollar sympathy relationships confirm a weaker dollar * Emerging currencies are emerging * Some currencies remain in bear market against the dollar Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers This week, the US Dollar Index ($USD) violated several key benchmarks, leading... READ MORE
In our Conclusions section of the Weekly Wrap last week, I expressed my heightened level of caution due to the negative condition of our indicators. On Monday a nice rally to new, all-time highs gave me cause to doubt my assessment, but the rally stalled on Tuesday, and the bottom... READ MORE
While stocks were rebounding last week, the dollar wasn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again Friday to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond yields bouncing along with stocks. The dollar... READ MORE
The ‘Nifty-Fifty’ era for stocks started in the 1960s and went into the early 1970s. These fifty or so stocks were consistent out-performers. Their earnings, sales and stock price growth stood apart from most other stocks. These stocks grew in value, year after year. They became known as ‘One Decision’... READ MORE
The REIT iShares (IYR) and the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) are at interesting junctures because they corrected within an uptrend. Even though both are at potential reversal zones, chartists should be careful because retail REITs and hotel REITs are weak spots within the REIT universe. The chart below shows IYR... READ MORE
The stock market has been in correction mode since early March when looking at the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY). Together, these two ETFs represent 900 stocks and cover the majority of the market, and they have been flat since March... READ MORE
It was a rough finish to the week and it has shaken up the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Additionally, the Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) generated a Neutral signal on the equal-weight Financials ETF (RYF) and a weekly Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal popped on the equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD). Believe... READ MORE
RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER... While stocks are rebounding today, the dollar isn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again today to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond... READ MORE
Anyone who trades the market on a regular basis knows how important it is to use whatever tools are available to make important decisions. This includes using charts to determine the strength/weakness of a specific stock, sector or index, zeroing in on key price and technical support/resistance levels... READ MORE
We saw the first significant selling pressure in months last week, especially on Wednesday. Financials (XLF) led the rout to the downside, but the sector did bounce back later in the week and, in the process, held key neckline price support within two key industry groups - banks ($DJUSBK) and... READ MORE
There is a seismic generational displacement happening in the investment landscape. Many investors are shifting their assets into indexes and ETFs as they move away from stocks and mutual funds. Due to this shift, a number of investment firms are having to make enormous changes themselves in order to remain... READ MORE
.... The Stealthy Looking Correction .... AD Volume Lines Reflect Corrective Period .... High-Low Lines Have Yet to Turn Down .... Percent Above 200-day EMA Deteriorates Further .... SPY Gaps Down like its September 2016 .... Setting a Correction Zone for QQQ .... IJR: Breakout Failed, but Short-term Oversold .... Finance and Industrials Gap Lower .... Low Correlations are... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, May 18, 2017 Technology (XLK, +0.59%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.58%) led the market's rally on Thursday after mobile telecom ($DJUSWC) managed to hang onto 20 week EMA support after a drubbing on Wednesday. The bad news is that there remains an... READ MORE
* 10-day ROC for the VIX may have a message for traders * Close that gap on your way out * Financials, a canary in the coal line for stocks in general Last week I wrote about the $VIX and concluded that a low reading, such as we recently saw, usually precedes a... READ MORE
Caterpillar (CAT) was one of many beneficiaries of the latest quarterly earnings season. With its revenues and EPS topping Wall Street estimates, CAT surged higher on April 25 from its April 24 close of 96.81. The recent market weakness enabled CAT to pull back to test key price support... READ MORE
Market Recap for Wednesday, May 17, 2017 It was a brutal day of selling for U.S. equities. The selling began at the open and continued right through the close. The selling also cleared price support levels and that likely will result in further selling in the days and possibly... READ MORE
.... Passive versus Too Active .... Using the Inspect Feature on SharpCharts .... The Good, the Bad and the Neutral .... Scan Code to Measure Performance .... Building a Correction ChartList .... S&P 500 Breadth, Momentum and Correction Target .... The active versus passive debate has been raging for some time now. On one side... READ MORE
You'll likely notice the significant changes to the DP Scoreboards (which you can now find on your member homepage in the drop down in the "Market Movers" box!). A clear shift in momentum is taking place. Yesterday the short-term Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) were all rising... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... My Saturday message issued some short-term warnings for the market. Part of that warning came from falling bond yields which hinted that fixed income traders were turning more pessimistic. Another came from weak performances by banks, small caps, and transports which are leading the stock... READ MORE
Market Recap for Tuesday, May 16, 2017 Technology (XLK, +0.47%) and financials (XLF, +0.29%) were the two best performing sectors on Tuesday and the former was the primary reason that the NASDAQ was able to outperform on a day when the U.S. market was bifurcated. The Dow... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD), Euro ETF (FXE) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are all up year-to-date and showing positive correlation. This is not a big surprise because gold is negatively correlated to the Dollar and negatively correlated to the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX). The Euro accounts for around 57%... READ MORE
No changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. They remain green in all timeframes (with the exception of the Dow IT PMO SELL signal). I suspect we will see some IT PMO SELL signals this Friday, barring a major rally. The OEX is currently configured for an IT PMO SELL... READ MORE
U.S. STOCKS ARE GLOBAL UNDERACHIEVERS... Several of my previous messages have written about foreign stocks doing better than those in the U.S. this year. I'll come back to those foreign charts shortly. Chart 1, however, is designed to show how weak U.S. stocks have been... READ MORE
Market Recap for Monday, May 15, 2017 It was another solid day for U.S. equities with index leadership coming from the small caps as the Russell 2000 posted a nice 0.81% rise while the other major indices were just below the +0.50% level. Monday marked only the... READ MORE
.... Will Bonds or Small-caps Turn Up First? (IJR, MDY, TLT, IEF) .... Citigroup is Leading the Big Banks (XLF, JPM, BAC, MS, GS) .... A Big ETF Provider and Two Brokers (BLK, SCHW, ETFC) .... Three Railroads with Long-term Uptrends (UNP, NSC, KSU) .... Three Big Utilities Go for Breakouts (AES, D, DUK, SO)... READ MORE
Textron (TXT), which is part of the industrials sector and the defense-aerospace industry, surged to new highs after the election and then declined in 2017. I consider this a correction within a bigger uptrend because the decline retraced less than 50% of the prior advance and the stock remains above... READ MORE
Early in writing these articles I talked a lot about market internals or market breadth. As a refresher, I’ll review the basics and then offer an opinion on why breadth is so important. Breadth Components Breadth components are readily available from newspapers, online sources, etc. and consist of daily... READ MORE
Market Recap for Friday, May 12, 2017 The NASDAQ finished higher on Friday, but that was not the case for the Dow Jones and S&P 500, which both finished fractionally lower. The Russell 2000 was hit hardest as this small cap index again threatened a short-term breakdown beneath... READ MORE
* Trying to replicate the Shanghai Composite with a Chinese ETF * Global Update Years ago, investing in China was a challenging proposition for US based investors. In recent years though, a number of ETF’s have been listed that embrace Chinese Indexes as well as specific sectors. The big daddy of... READ MORE
Intel (INTC) has been trading in bullish sideways fashion since topping in October. The Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index ($DJUSSC) has continued to rise and lead the benchmark S&P 500 on a relative basis - even while INTC consolidates. A breakout in Intel would measure to 42... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS DROP ON FRIDAY... Some caution crept into financial markets near the end of the week. Part of that was reflected in Friday's sharp drop in bond yields. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield falling back below its 50-day average in pretty decisive fashion. That was... READ MORE
I thought that last week's breakout was the initiation of a new rally that would continue this week. But no. This week price moved back below the breakout level, but strangely this failure did not develop into a more serious breakdown either. Price just continued to churn sideways,... READ MORE
Horizontal Point and Figure analysis is one of the great mysteries of technical analysis. Very few do this analysis, and even fewer do it correctly. An incorrect procedure leads to bad counts. But when it is done properly PnF is magical. We have spent much time here establishing proper counting... READ MORE
Small-Cap High-Low Line is Still Rising The bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks, but small-caps and mid-caps continue to drag their feet. The chart below shows the cumulative High-Low Line for S&P SmallCap High-Low Percent ($SMLHLP) with the 10-day EMA (pink). Notice that the High-Low Line... READ MORE
I’d like to paraphrase a fishing analogy. Show someone how to invest by following a winning trading methodology and he/she will be happy for awhile. Teach someone how to think effectively about trading and he/she will be profitable for a lifetime. All too often as investors, our... READ MORE
Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... On a Road to Nowhere ($VIX and $SPX) .... High-Low Lines Continue to Rise .... Deterioration in %Above 200-day Indicators .... SPY Holds the Breakout and the Gaps .... IJR and MDY Tests their Breakout Zones .... Mind the Gap-Breakouts in XLI and XLF .... Correlations with the 20+ YR T-Bond... READ MORE
Market Recap for Thursday, May 11, 2017 Consumer staples (XLP, +0.15%) and utilities (XLU, +0.14%) were beneficiaries of money rotating more defensively on Thursday. While the end result at the close wasn't bad overall (the Dow Jones and S&P 500 lost 0.11% and... READ MORE
No new changes to the DP Scoreboards to report...except that you can now find the DP Scoreboards on your member homepage! I'll be writing about how to quickly access it in tomorrow's blog. While everything remains green on most of the boards, I did note... READ MORE
* The VIX * The Dollar Index * The Euro * Swiss Franc * Japanese Yen The VIX Most of this piece is devoted to the dollar and some interesting looking currencies. However, I have been intrigued by a couple of articles and news stories recently appearing in the general purpose media. They have pointed... READ MORE