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AIRLINES ARE LEADING INDUSTRIAL SPDR TO NEW HIGHS -- AIRLINE LEADERS ARE UAL, SOUTHWEST, AND JETBLUE -- TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ISHARES CLEAR 50-DAY LINE -- DOW INDUSTRIALS NEAR NEW RECORD -- S&P 500 IS ALREADY THERE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Industrial Select SPDR (XLK) trading in record territory today. Today's higher price action is pushing the XLI above a sideways trading pattern that's been in effect since the start of March. Its relative strength line (above chart)...
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SystemTrader - Trailing Stops versus Profit Targets for a Moving Average Crossover System
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Do stops really help?
.... Setting the Benchmark
.... System Ground Rules
.... Consulting, Software and Data
.... Testing Some Basic EMA Crossovers
.... Base System and Sample Charts
.... Trailing Stops, Profit Targets and Both
.... Backtest Results
.... Testing a Percent Profit Target
.... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor
.... Scan Code ....
Do stops really help?
We have all...
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S&P 500 Breaks To Another Fresh All-Time High
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Seven of nine sectors finished higher to lead the S&P 500 to a record high close on Wednesday. Materials (XLB, +0.67%) and utilities (XLU, +0.57%) led the advance as gold mining ($DJUSPM) and mining ($DJUSMG) both performed extremely well,...
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Minding Three Gaps for Three Big Banks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Banking stocks bounced on Tuesday as the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) fell and the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX) moved higher. These bounces reinforce the positive correlation with TLT and the negative correlation with $TNX. The chart below shows three big banks in long-term uptrends and six month stalls. Technically, Bank...
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Financials Lead As Banks Rally Amid Rising Treasury Yields
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Eight of nine sectors finished in positive territory on Tuesday as only consumer discretionary (XLY, -0.38%) failed to do so. 18 of 23 industry groups within the discretionary sector finished lower, with retail and home construction stocks clearly the weakest links. After...
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DP Alert: STTM BUY Signals for Dow and OEX - Oil Shoots Higher
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
The market recovery since Wednesday has been remarkable. With this steady rally, last week's bearish signals are being erased. I did mention in yesterday's blog that ST Trend Model signals will whipsaw quite a bit but they do help us to characterize the market in the...
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Industrial Suppliers Continue Impressive Bounce Off Support
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, May 22, 2017
Utilities (XLU, +0.86%), technology (XLK, +0.80%) and industrials (XLI, +0.77%) were the sector leaders on Monday, aiding our major indices as they mostly have erased the big losses from last Wednesday. The XLI has been a leader of late and...
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Five Sectors Lead New High List - 10 Bullish Stock Setups
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... XLF Lags as TLT Surges
.... A Classic Corrective Sequence for KRE
.... TLT Holds Breakout and Nears 200-day
.... T-bond Correlations in Play
.... Large-caps Continue to Lead New High List
.... Utilities and Staples Lead Sector New High List
.... Charts: MMC, CB, TRV, MDLZ, KHC, DPS, CMCSA, AAL, JBLU, MDT ....
XLF Lags as...
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Gold's New BUY Signals - SPX Triggers ST Trend Model BUY Signal
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
I received some very important alerts this afternoon. Gold triggered a new IT Trend Model BUY signal as the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. In addition, Gold also saw a new PMO BUY signal; and, like the SPX, a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal was triggered as the...
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Utilities Take the Lead with a Triangle Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is clearly one of the leading sectors in 2017 because it is trading at its highest level of the year. XLU, by the way, is the only sector SPDR that hit a year-to-date high on Monday. The chart shows XLU correcting into November 2016, breaking out...
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Will Technology (XLK) continue to lead the market higher?
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows four sectors with rotational patterns that catch the eye and deserve a further investigation.
Inside the lagging quadrant, these are Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) and inside the leading quadrant, I am looking at Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY).
The balance...
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A Reading List
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
In the 1970s there were very few books on technical analysis. Now there a many great books available in the field of technical analysis and finance. However, I’m going to keep these lists short and focused. These lists contains many other wonderful books on technical analysis, finance, and behavioral...
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Stocks Rebound On The Strength Of Industrials
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, May 19, 2017
Industrials (XLI, +1.32%) and energy (XLE, +1.23%) were the two clear leaders on Friday. The XLI represents one of the four aggressive sectors in the market so it's always nice to see strength there. Commercial vehicles ($DJUSHR) had a...
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Northrop Grumman Awaiting Bullish Triangle Breakout
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Northrop Grumman (NOC) has risen ten fold since this bull market began in 2009 and its current bullish pattern suggests that this defense company is not ready to roll over just yet. It's been a struggle to clear 250 price resistance the past 6-7 months, but the rising...
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Dollar Index Triggers Some Long-term Sell Signals
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers
* Dollar sympathy relationships confirm a weaker dollar
* Emerging currencies are emerging
* Some currencies remain in bear market against the dollar
Dollar Index experiences major trendline breaks and MA crossovers
This week, the US Dollar Index ($USD) violated several key benchmarks, leading...
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DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Break and Bounce
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
In our Conclusions section of the Weekly Wrap last week, I expressed my heightened level of caution due to the negative condition of our indicators. On Monday a nice rally to new, all-time highs gave me cause to doubt my assessment, but the rally stalled on Tuesday, and the bottom...
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Rising European Currencies Are Pushing the Dollar Lower
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
While stocks were rebounding last week, the dollar wasn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again Friday to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond yields bouncing along with stocks. The dollar...
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The New Nifty Fifty
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
The ‘Nifty-Fifty’ era for stocks started in the 1960s and went into the early 1970s. These fifty or so stocks were consistent out-performers. Their earnings, sales and stock price growth stood apart from most other stocks. These stocks grew in value, year after year. They became known as ‘One Decision’...
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Broad REIT ETFs Hit Interesting Junctures, but Hotel and Retail REITs Weigh
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The REIT iShares (IYR) and the Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) are at interesting junctures because they corrected within an uptrend. Even though both are at potential reversal zones, chartists should be careful because retail REITs and hotel REITs are weak spots within the REIT universe. The chart below shows IYR...
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Video - Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Correction Evidence Builds
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market has been in correction mode since early March when looking at the EW S&P 500 ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap SPDR (MDY). Together, these two ETFs represent 900 stocks and cover the majority of the market, and they have been flat since March...
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Bearish Signals Continue to Mount
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
It was a rough finish to the week and it has shaken up the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Additionally, the Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) generated a Neutral signal on the equal-weight Financials ETF (RYF) and a weekly Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal popped on the equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD). Believe...
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RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER -- THE FALLING DOLLAR, HOWEVER, IS BOOSTING COMMODITIES -- BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS BOUNCING OFF CHART SUPPORT -- FRIDAY'S REBOUND REPAIRS SOME DAMAGE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING EUROPEAN CURRENCIES ARE PUSHING THE DOLLAR LOWER... While stocks are rebounding today, the dollar isn't. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index ETF (UUP) falling again today to the lowest level since November. It may seem surprising to see the dollar continuing to drop with bond...
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When in Doubt, Sit it Out
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
Anyone who trades the market on a regular basis knows how important it is to use whatever tools are available to make important decisions. This includes using charts to determine the strength/weakness of a specific stock, sector or index, zeroing in on key price and technical support/resistance levels...
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Are We Topping? Watch These Two Industry Groups
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
We saw the first significant selling pressure in months last week, especially on Wednesday. Financials (XLF) led the rout to the downside, but the sector did bounce back later in the week and, in the process, held key neckline price support within two key industry groups - banks ($DJUSBK) and...
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My 3-Prong Recipe for the Safe Growth & Outperformance of Your Portfolio
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
There is a seismic generational displacement happening in the investment landscape. Many investors are shifting their assets into indexes and ETFs as they move away from stocks and mutual funds. Due to this shift, a number of investment firms are having to make enormous changes themselves in order to remain...
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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - A Stealthy Correction
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... The Stealthy Looking Correction
.... AD Volume Lines Reflect Corrective Period
.... High-Low Lines Have Yet to Turn Down
.... Percent Above 200-day EMA Deteriorates Further
.... SPY Gaps Down like its September 2016
.... Setting a Correction Zone for QQQ
.... IJR: Breakout Failed, but Short-term Oversold
.... Finance and Industrials Gap Lower
.... Low Correlations are...
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Stocks Rebound, This Relative Ratio Will Be Important To Watch
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, May 18, 2017
Technology (XLK, +0.59%) and consumer discretionary (XLY, +0.58%) led the market's rally on Thursday after mobile telecom ($DJUSWC) managed to hang onto 20 week EMA support after a drubbing on Wednesday. The bad news is that there remains an...
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Two Important Areas To Watch- $VIX and Financials
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* 10-day ROC for the VIX may have a message for traders
* Close that gap on your way out
* Financials, a canary in the coal line for stocks in general
Last week I wrote about the $VIX and concluded that a low reading, such as we recently saw, usually precedes a...
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Caterpillar Tests Price Support, Nearly Fills Gap
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Caterpillar (CAT) was one of many beneficiaries of the latest quarterly earnings season. With its revenues and EPS topping Wall Street estimates, CAT surged higher on April 25 from its April 24 close of 96.81. The recent market weakness enabled CAT to pull back to test key price support...
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Major Indices Sell Off Hard, Lose Support; What's Next?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, May 17, 2017
It was a brutal day of selling for U.S. equities. The selling began at the open and continued right through the close. The selling also cleared price support levels and that likely will result in further selling in the days and possibly...
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Setting Up a Stock-Picker's ChartList for a Possible Correction - S&P 500 Mimics September
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Passive versus Too Active
.... Using the Inspect Feature on SharpCharts
.... The Good, the Bad and the Neutral
.... Scan Code to Measure Performance
.... Building a Correction ChartList
.... S&P 500 Breadth, Momentum and Correction Target ....
The active versus passive debate has been raging for some time now. On one side...
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DP Scoreboards PMO SELL Signals Reflect Big Shift in Momentum
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
You'll likely notice the significant changes to the DP Scoreboards (which you can now find on your member homepage in the drop down in the "Market Movers" box!). A clear shift in momentum is taking place. Yesterday the short-term Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) were all rising...
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BIG DROPS IN BOND YIELDS AND DOLLAR SHOW LOSS OF CONFIDENCE -- FINANCIALS, SMALL CAPS, AND TRANSPORTS LEAD MARKET LOWER -- FALLING STOCK INDEXES ARE SUFFERING SHORT-TERM CHART DAMAGE -- TRADERS COULD BE SELLING IN MAY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELDS CONTINUE TO DROP ... My Saturday message issued some short-term warnings for the market. Part of that warning came from falling bond yields which hinted that fixed income traders were turning more pessimistic. Another came from weak performances by banks, small caps, and transports which are leading the stock...
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Negative Divergences Weighing On Transports
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Technology (XLK, +0.47%) and financials (XLF, +0.29%) were the two best performing sectors on Tuesday and the former was the primary reason that the NASDAQ was able to outperform on a day when the U.S. market was bifurcated. The Dow...
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Gold, Euro and Bonds: The Three Inter-market Amigos
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Gold SPDR (GLD), Euro ETF (FXE) and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) are all up year-to-date and showing positive correlation. This is not a big surprise because gold is negatively correlated to the Dollar and negatively correlated to the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX). The Euro accounts for around 57%...
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DP Alert: PMO SELL Signal on Dollar - PMO BUY Signal on Oil
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
No changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. They remain green in all timeframes (with the exception of the Dow IT PMO SELL signal). I suspect we will see some IT PMO SELL signals this Friday, barring a major rally. The OEX is currently configured for an IT PMO SELL...
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U.S. UNDERPERFORMS FOREIGN STOCKS -- DECADE OF U.S. LEADERSHIP MAY BE ENDING -- VANGUARD FOREIGN STOCK ETF HITS TEN-YEAR HIGH -- EUROZONE SHARES ALSO BREAK OUT -- UK ISHARES BENEFIT FROM STRONGER POUND -- RISING EMERGING CURRENCIES BENEFIT EM STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
U.S. STOCKS ARE GLOBAL UNDERACHIEVERS... Several of my previous messages have written about foreign stocks doing better than those in the U.S. this year. I'll come back to those foreign charts shortly. Chart 1, however, is designed to show how weak U.S. stocks have been...
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S&P 500 Sets Fresh Record High Close; Materials And Energy Lead
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, May 15, 2017
It was another solid day for U.S. equities with index leadership coming from the small caps as the Russell 2000 posted a nice 0.81% rise while the other major indices were just below the +0.50% level. Monday marked only the...
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Will Bonds or Small-caps Turn Up First?
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
.... Will Bonds or Small-caps Turn Up First? (IJR, MDY, TLT, IEF)
.... Citigroup is Leading the Big Banks (XLF, JPM, BAC, MS, GS)
.... A Big ETF Provider and Two Brokers (BLK, SCHW, ETFC)
.... Three Railroads with Long-term Uptrends (UNP, NSC, KSU)
.... Three Big Utilities Go for Breakouts (AES, D, DUK, SO)...
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PPO Upturn Points to a Correction-ending Breakout for Textron
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Textron (TXT), which is part of the industrials sector and the defense-aerospace industry, surged to new highs after the election and then declined in 2017. I consider this a correction within a bigger uptrend because the decline retraced less than 50% of the prior advance and the stock remains above...
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