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STOCKS SURGE ON PRE-ELECTION FBI ANNOUNCEMENT AS SAFE HAVEN ASSETS SLIDE -- RISING DOLLAR HURTS GOLD -- MEXICO LEADS EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER -- RISING BASE METALS BOOST AUSSIE DOLLAR -- AIRLINES LEAD TRANSPORTS IN BULLISH BREAKOUT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FBI ANNOUNCEMENT CAUSES BIG RISK-ON DAY... The Sunday afternoon FBI announcement that it was ending its Hillary Clinton email investigation with no charges caused a huge risk- on trade the day before the presidential election. Stocks have surged as much as 2% around the world. A stronger dollar, and surging...
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Article Summaries 8-2016 to 10-2016
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
Most blog authors on StockCharts.com are writing about the current markets and do an exceptional job. I do not write about the current markets as I wanted to share my experiences after 40+ years as a technical analyst. Not only experiences with trading and investing, but model building and...
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VIX Reaches a Momentum Extreme
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 fell softly (~3%) over the last nine trading days and the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) surged over 70%. This surge puts $VIX at its highest level in over three months - but this is not necessarily bearish. $VIX is a coincident indicator...
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S&P 500 Losing Streak Hits Nine; Futures Soaring
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, November 4, 2016
Friday was a rough day for market bulls, especially when you consider how our major indices finished out the week. The S&P 500 was solidly higher at 2pm EST on Friday.....but the last two hours wiped out all gains and...
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Pre-Election Market Assessment
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
From the August price top to the present, price has been deteriorating, and this week we finally got a bottom beneath the September bottom to officially set a declining trend. I think it is notable that the falling trend has persisted from the summer, when Clinton had a clear lead...
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Are Shareholders Withdrawing From PayPal?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The past two weeks have not been kind to PayPal (PYPL) as the online payment enabler has dropped roughly 10% since reporting stellar quarterly results and witnessing a breakout to its post-IPO all-time high. PYPL beat estimates on both revenue (slightly) and EPS (.29 vs .27) and the company was...
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Now The Bear Market Concerns Begin
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
The "under the surface" signals have been quite bearish for the past 1-2 years. Money has rotated away from aggressive areas and I've discussed it here and my Trading Places blog quite often. But it was very difficult to think bearish thoughts as long as the...
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Rising Bond Yields Boost Insurers, Have Negative Impact on Stock Indexes
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LIFE INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Rising bond yields continue to give a boost to financial stocks like life insurers. Bear in mind that premium income in insurance stocks is invested mostly in fixed income markets. Higher bond yields mean higher income. Life insurers are leading the financial sector higher today....
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Bond market charts look horrible but they show positive rotation on RRG
by Julius de Kempenaer,
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation of various asset classes against VBINX, a balanced index fund holding 60% in equities and 40% in bonds.
The current rotational picture is highlighting a pretty clear rotational picture for various (groups of) asset classes.
The most important observation is that all...
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The Bigger they Surge, the Harder they Correct
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) both broke below their September lows with IWM leading the way lower. QQQ is still holding up the best because it hit a 52-week high the week before and remains above the September low. Looking at SPY...
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SystemTrader - How to become a Smooth Operator with Moving Averages - Backtesting Different Moving Average Pairs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
SystemTrader .... Why Focus on the S&P 500? .... Moving Averages Love Whipsaws .... Adding a Smooth Operator .... Backtesting Moving Average Performance .... Scaling into Positions with Moving Averages .... Backing testing an Array of EMAs .... Conclusions.... //// ....
Why Focus on the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is the most...
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NDX at Breaking Point
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
If you look at the DP Scoreboards by themselves, you would note that the NDX appears to have internal strength given that two July BUY signals are still intact in the intermediate term. However, a look at the charts reveals those signals are about to break.
The Intermediate-Term Trend Model...
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How I Maintain Emotional Consistency and Behavioral Intelligence Trading the Markets
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
I heard an insightful interview with a judge talking about the transformation she goes through in her chambers as she puts on her black judicial robes and enters the courtroom.
It reminded me of my own physician who I know socially and who I’ve seen experience a similar conversion...
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Examining Market Response to Earnings Reports
by John Hopkins,
President and Co-founder, EarningsBeats.com
When the market is under fire like it has been for the past few weeks it becomes harder to trade successfully. This is particularly true if your focus is on the long side.
One way we've tried to combat a difficult trading environment at EarningsBeats is to focus...
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FireEye Printing Bullish Candle On Weekly Chart At Support
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
FireEye (FEYE) hasn't had much to brag about since June 2015, but for those traders with high risk tolerance levels, FEYE could provide very nice returns from its current price level. The cyber security company reported better than expected revenues and EPS after the close on Thursday and...
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S&P 500 Drops For 8th Straight Session, Jobs Fall Short
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, November 3, 2016
Outside of option expiration days, the NASDAQ's volume the past two days is the highest consecutive day volume level since the post-Brexit results in late June. And there are two further signs that suggest to me the selling hasn't...
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Is It Time To Give Up On The Stock Market?
by Martin Pring,
President, Pring Research
* What’s happening at the margin?
* Short-term technical position oversold…but
* Gold breaks out against bonds
* Dollar showing weakness
What’s happening at the margin?
Last week I wrote an upbeat article pointing out that the stock market was oversold on a near-term basis as it approached a bullish seasonal...
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The Broadening Top Formation
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
My very first technical analysis book was “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” by Robert Edwards and John Magee (5th edition). How I loved that book! I read and reread it and endlessly studied the charts. In my estimation it is one of the most important technical analysis books ever published....
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RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST INSURERS WHILE HURTING REITS AND OTHER DIVIDEND PAYERS -- LINCOLN NATIONAL, METLIFE, AND PRUDENTIAL RISE ON STRONG EARNNGS -- RISING BOND YIELDS ARE HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON STOCK INDEXES WITH MOST SECTORS IN THE RED
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
LIFE INSURERS LEAD FINANCIALS HIGHER ... Rising bond yields continue to give a boost to financial stocks like life insurers. Bear in mind that premium income in insurance stocks is invested mostly in fixed income markets. Higher bond yields mean higher income. Life insurers are leading the financial sector higher today....
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Bulls Still at Bat with Two Strikes - Using Key Lows to Find Chart Leaders and Laggards
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Another Seven Day Decline .... Channel Defines Correction in SPY .... Revisiting the Mean-Reversion Strategy .... Is Mean-Reversion Broken? .... Strike Two for the S&P 500 .... Benchmark Lows to Find Chart Leaders and Laggards .... Revisiting the ETF Scan .... //// ....
The S&P 500 closed down seven days in a row and this...
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Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, S&P 500 Remains Below Support
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Wednesday, November 2, 2016
Traders waited nervously for the FOMC announcement at 2pm EST yesterday and given the recent S&P 500 breakdown beneath 2120 and the elevated volatility index ($VIX), they had reason to do so. I felt the market environment was such that we...
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Time for Genuine Concern or just More Wall of Worry?
by Greg Morris,
Veteran Technical Analyst, Investor, and Author
Is this a market correction? Generally accepted levels (-10%) that most deem as a correction versus just a market pullback (-5%). Is this going to become a bear market (-20%)? First, there is not a person on Earth that knows the answer (despite what you hear on TV), and I...
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Walgreens Bucks the Selling Pressure and Shows Relative Strength $WBA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It's been a rough five weeks for the broader market, but a few stocks and groups are still shining. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) is down around 2.5% and eight of nine sectors are down since the end of September. The Finance SPDR (XLF) is...
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S&P 500 Loses Key Support, What You Need To Know
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, November 1, 2016
A couple reminders before we get into the action. First, today's webinar will be very interesting given the breakdown on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 yesterday. It's 30 minutes of charts, key technical levels and market...
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Big Box Costco (COST) and Big Coffee Starbucks (SBUX) in Big Trouble
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
With major support being broken on the SPY (see today's DP Alert blog article for more on the SPY), I decided to run my "dogs" scan. It picks up S&P 500 stocks that have a negative Trend Model configuration (20-EMA < 50-EMA < 200-EMA)...
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S&P 500 BREAKS CHART SUPPORT AS THE VIX SURGES -- FALLING DOLLAR PUSHES GOLD HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 BREAKS SUPPORT AS VIX SURGES... Election jitters are taking a toll on stocks. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling below its September/October lows to a four month low. All other major stock indexes are falling as well. That leaves the SPX in...
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SPY Holds the Line with a Spinning Top - IWM Does a Momentum Double Dip - Webinar Video
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Webinar Video -- Art's Charts ChartList
Performance for the First Ten Months .... Two Steps Forward and One Step Backward .... SPY Holds with a Spinning Top .... QQQ Continues to Lead .... RSI Does the Double Dip for IWM .... Webinar Preview .... //// ....
Performance for the First Ten Months
Even though we have...
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Utilities Keep S&P 500 Afloat But How Much Longer?
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Monday, October 31, 2016
The S&P 500 only finished down 0.26 points on the day Monday, but it felt a lot worse, mostly because that benchmark index finished very close to its low of the day and only 6 points from MAJOR short- to...
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Crude Enters Second Weakest Month on a Down Note
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Light Crude fell sharply on the last trading day of October and ended the month down. Crude even poked its head above $52 twice during the month, but fell sharply the last two weeks of October and ended below $47. This reversal of fortune is especially interesting when we look...
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Just How Bad is this Pullback from New Highs? - Breadth Indicator Overview and Summary
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Major Index ETFs are Not that Far from Recent Highs .... Sticking with the Strategy .... Breadth Indicators Soften During Correction .... Small and Mid Caps Lead Breadth Pullback .... Breadth Summary and Conclusions .... //// ....
Stocks weakened over the last two months with small and mid caps leading the way lower the last six weeks....
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Market Deciding If Earnings Are Trick Or Treat
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Friday, October 28, 2016
Happy Halloween! Earnings season is well underway and it's clear that certain areas of the market are gaining momentum as a result. Those that benefit from higher interest rates are doing particularly well - both fundamentally and technically. Look no further...
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McClellan Summation Indexes Show Dangerous Conditions
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Last week Erin's article on the Russell 2000 gave me reason to browse the Straight Shots collection of indicator charts for the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index. Straight Shots allow us to shoot straight through a collection of indicator charts that are derived from the component stocks...
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Charter Hits Price Support, Bounces
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
There are basic technical analysis 101 principles and perhaps none more significant than the premise of price support and price resistance. During an uptrend, think of support and resistance as you would traveling higher in an elevator in an office building. The ceiling (resistance) on the first level becomes the...
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LONGER-DATED TREASURY BONDS LEAD FIXED INCOME MARKETS LOWER -- HIGH YIELD BONDS ARE MORE CLOSELY TIED TO STOCKS -- MONEY IS FLOWING INTO TIPS FOR INFLATION PROTECTION -- RISING COAL SHARES ARE ANOTHER SIGN OF A COMMODITY REVIVAL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MORE BOND CHARTS ... I've been writing about how the recent upturn in bond yields has been pushing bond prices lower (primarily due to rising commodity prices). Not all bond categories are falling at the same rate however. When inflationary pressures are starting to pull bond yields higher, longer...
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Wyckoff Doodles
by Bruce Fraser,
Industry-leading "Wyckoffian"
When markets become dull and listless, Wyckoffians tend to doodle. Currently equity markets seem to be marking time while waiting for the results of the presidential election. The best way for the Wyckoff Nation to prepare is to keep reading the tape (in the form of chart analysis). One of...
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Charts I'm Stalking Action Practice #5
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
This is the fifth biweekly Action Practice blog we’ve done together, so I’ll assume most readers are up to speed by now and I don’t need to repeat specifics about “Permission To Buy”. Here is the link to the Action Practice #4 blog which we will address...
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RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE PULLING BOND YIELDS HIGHER -- BASE METALS ETF HITS NEW HIGH FOR THE YEAR -- S&P METALS AND MINING ETF OUTPERFORMS -- STRONG GDP FAVORS ECONOMICALLY-SENSITIVE STOCKS OVER BONDS -- SO DOES RISING STOCK/BOND RATIO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE BOOSTING GLOBAL BOND YIELDS... I find it amusing listening to TV talking heads trying to explain why global bond yields have started to rise (pushing bond prices sharply lower). They don't seem to have noticed that commodity prices have risen more than 20% since...
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SystemTrader - Scanning for ETFs with Good Liquidity, Uptrends, Bullish Momentum and Relative Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Lots of Low Liquidity .... Getting the ETF Master ChartPack .... Filtering for an Uptrend .... Ranking by StockCharts Technical Rank .... Ranking By Rate-of-Change .... Narrowing and Exporting Scan Results .... Analyzing with CandleGlance and RSI .... Conclusions .... //// ....
Introduction
Momentum and relative performance are related concepts that chartists can use to filter the ETF universe. Momentum...
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Key Support Holds As U.S. Stocks Enter Best Time Of Year
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Market Recap for Thursday, October 27, 2016
All of our major indices were fractionally lower to end the historically bearish October 22nd-27th period. Treasury yields were on the rise as the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) broke above 1.80% to continue its recent uptrend. Selling in treasuries sent the...
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IWM Breaks Below Important Support
by Erin Swenlin,
Vice President, DecisionPoint.com
In Perry Kaufman's book, Trading Systems and Methods, he discusses a relationship between small-caps and large-caps:
"Investors shift from small-cap stocks to the S&P 500 and then to the Dow when they are looking for safety."
A quick comparison of the daily charts of...
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