Stocks reacted positively to a rather routine employment report. The Labor department reported a 175,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for May. This is the not-to-hot and not-to-cold version of the jobs report. It is enough to suggest modest economic growth and keep the hopes alive for sustained quantitative easing.... READ MORE
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) fell below 72 on Thursday, but rallied to forge a strong close and form a hammer. Also notice that volume surged to its highest in over three months. QQQ followed through with a gap and move above 73, but has yet to break flag resistance... READ MORE
STOCKS REMAIN STRONG, BUT STILL RIPE FOR A CORRECTION... Link for today's video. Tapering or no tapering, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains in a long-term uptrend and shows no serious signs of selling pressure. The ETF dipped to the 160 area during the week and... READ MORE
Some people meticulously prepare and perfectly execute a mountain ascent, catching the significance of both the experience and the view from the top. Others just catch a cold. Last week’s blog produced a record number of comments which made it clear to me that I should amplify and elaborate... READ MORE
The market is hitting its first make-or-break point. The bulk of the evidence remains bullish and this decline is still considered a correction within a bigger uptrend. The current decline, however, has extended long enough to push some indicators to the brink though. NYSE Net New Highs have been flirting... READ MORE
And now for the employment report. Here's the thing with these big reports. Traders have to get two things right to successfully trade the report. First, you have to guess the non-farm payroll number. Second, you have to guess the market's reaction. The report can be... READ MORE
U.S. STOCKS ARE THE STRONGEST IN THE WORLD... U.S. stocks remain the strongest in the world. The two charts below use relative strength analysis to demonstrate that. Chart 1 plots a relative strength ratio of the S&P 500 divided by EAFE iShares (EFA) over the last... READ MORE
Finisar (FNSR) has had a tough year so far, but the stock is showing signs of life after a bear trap in late May (failed support break) and gap breakout in early June. Also notice that RSI is challenging range resistance and a breakout at 60 would be bullish for... READ MORE
It was a sea of red on Wednesday as the major index ETFs extended their declines and all nine sectors fell. That's the bad news. The good news, perhaps, is that the stock market is short-term oversold now. The upcoming employment numbers represent the uncertain news. The economic... READ MORE
BBRY Tests Channel Support with Bounce. DE Breaks Flag Support. Plus IMAX, KBH, MWV, PKI This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
Target (TGT) surged to a new high above 72, but failed to hold above 72 as a shooting star candlestick formed on Tuesday. The stock went on to fill Tuesday's gap with a long filled candlestick on Wednesday. This confirms the shooting star and resistance in the 71-72... READ MORE
SELLING PRESSURE CONTINUES AS STOCKS EXTEND CORRECTION... Link for today's video. The stock market remained in corrected mode with weakness across the board. The major index ETFs were all lower, all nine sectors declined and almost all industry group ETFs were down. Chart 1 shows the S&... READ MORE
Stocks were all over the place on Tuesday. The major index ETFs opened stronger, moved lower during the day and bounced in the afternoon. Despite this bounce, the major index ETFs closed lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) leading the way (-1.06%). All sectors were lower with the... READ MORE
Facebook (FB) led the market from late October until early January, but stumbled in January and has lagged the S&P 500 since. Despite relative weakness and a 4-5 month downtrend, support could be near as the stock trades near the 61.80% retracement and broken resistance. Click this... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SPDR FORMS BULLISH PENNANT AT CHART SUPPORT... One group that has benefited from May rotations out of defensive stock groups into more economically-sensitive groups is technology. As a result, technology is transitioning from a previous market laggard to an emerging market leader. I've written about this before.... READ MORE
Stocks opened weak, but firmed and rebounded in the afternoon. The major index ETFs finished mixed on the day with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) falling .34% and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rising .95% on the day. Wow, you don't see that very often.... READ MORE
AMCC Makes a Move with Good Volume. ASEI Tests Support with Long Lower Shadow. Plus CAT, ISRG, JBLU, NIHD This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Weakness is spreading in Asia as the Australian All Ords Index ($AORD) breaks support from the April lows. The chart below shows the index testing support last week. $AORD closed at 4873 on Monday, which is just below the April lows. Also notice that the index has been underperforming the... READ MORE
MEASURING THE SECTOR SHIFT WITH PERFCHARTS... Link for today's video. May brought about a big change in the equity market as leadership moved from the defensive sectors to the offensive sectors. We can define this shift by comparing PerfCharts for two different timeframes. The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP)... READ MORE
The major index ETFs closed lower as stocks were hit with some pretty strong selling pressure Friday afternoon. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) led the way with a 1.44% decline. All sectors were down with the Healthcare SPDR (XLV), Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Utilities SPDR (XLU)... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! It happened in mid-April and it happend again on the last day of May. The ominous sounding "Hindenburg Omen" signal has been given. Here's the chart: StockCharts members can click here for a live version of this chart. Here's the definition... READ MORE
The main story of the past week has been the upside breakout in U.S. Treasury bond yields to the highest level in thirteen months, and the corresponding drop in bond prices. The jump in bond yields during the month of May contributed to heavy selling of dividend paying stocks... READ MORE
That's the bad news. The good news is that momentum issues are more of a short-term nature than a long-term one. Still, as traders, we need to respect them just the same. First, let's take a look at the benchmark S&P 500 index on... READ MORE
EMERGING MARKET STOCKS FALL HARD DURING MAY... The main story of the past week has been the upside breakout in U.S. Treasury bond yields to the highest level in thirteen months, and the corresponding drop in bond prices. The jump in bond yields during the month of May contributed... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) is in a long-term uptrend, but the index pulled back this week to test the most recent breakout. A strong breakout should hold, while a weak breakout would fold. This is am important test for the greenback as we head into a big economic reporting... READ MORE
The S&P 500 component stocks are divided into nine sectors. All the stocks are used, and each stock is only used once. Those sector indexes are typically tracked using the nine SPDRs, which are essentially ETFs that whereby the sectors can be traded. We thought it would be... READ MORE
Gold stocks remain down in the dumps and in long-term downtrends, but signs of short-term strength are emerging. Randgold (GOLD) formed a higher low in May and the current X-Column broke above the prior X-Column to forge a P&F breakout. This breakout, however, is still below the Bearish... READ MORE
SPY AND QQQ STALL WITHIN UPTRENDS... Link for today's video. There is no real change in the overall picture for stocks. The big trends are up for the major index ETFs and there are no signs of significant selling pressure, but the market is still quite extended and... READ MORE
I’ve known a lot of great traders. Yes, they are out there. Some eventually became money managers, and then their careers evolved into more client hand-holding and less real trading. Clients can kill an exceptional trader. That’s the qualifier. A day in my life is a day with... READ MORE
After hitting new highs in mid May, the major index ETFs moved into consolidation patterns the last two weeks. A little rest, or even a pullback, would be healthy for the uptrend. With this sideway movement, there is no change in the indicator summary. Of note, the Nasdaq is showing... READ MORE
Stocks moved higher again on Thursday with mid-caps leading the way. The overall gains were modest though and the major index ETFs remain below Tuesday's highs. The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the sectors here with a 1.2% gain on the day. The Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials... READ MORE
BANKS BREAK OUT ... My Tuesday message mentioned a number of sector influences that deserve more explanation. I'll try to do that in this message. I've written recently about the impressive upturn in bank stocks, and some reasons for that upturn. Chart 1, for example, shows the... READ MORE
For the second Thursday in a row, the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) fell over 5% and extended its correction. While the decline from 15900 looks dramatic, it is still just a correction within a bigger uptrend and pales in comparison to the prior surge. The November trend line and broken resistance... READ MORE
AAPL Stalls Just below Neckline Resistance. ABX Breaks Trend Line with Good volume. Plus HCA, JDSU and WNR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
Stocks weakened on Wednesday with the defensive sectors leading the way down. The Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Utilities SPDR (XLU) declined 1.5% or more. Interest rate sensitive stocks continued to slide with the Real Estate iShares (IYR) and Telecom iShares (IYZ) falling around 2%. Homebuilders... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS JOIN RATE SENSITIVE GROUPS WITH RETREAT... Link for today's video. Stocks continue to price in a change in Fed policy by marking down interest rate sensitive shares. John Murphy and I commented on recent weakness in utilities and REITs. Treasuries are also falling sharply as Treasury yields... READ MORE
Stocks got their pop with a strong surge on the open. Even though stocks closed higher, I was not impressed with post-gap price action. In addition, notice that indecisive candlesticks formed in a number of stocks and ETFs. The charts below show SPY and QQQ forming small black candlesticks with... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) and the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) both peaked in early May and declined sharply the last four weeks. The Real Estate iShares (IYR) continued higher into mid May, but peaked last week and fell sharply the last four days. Interest rate sensitive issues are not... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR BOND YIELD JUMPS TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR ... The backup in bond yields that started a month ago took a more serious turn today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) climbing above its March peak. That upside breakout puts the bond yield at the highest... READ MORE
Stocks and the Dollar are in uptrends, while Treasuries and gold remain in downtrends. Stocks pulled back on Wednesday and opened weak on both Thursday and Friday. However, buyers stepped in after these weak openings and stocks closed off their lows on both days. The bulls still have the edge... READ MORE