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US DOLLAR INDEX IS POISED TO BREAKOUT AND CONTINUE UPTREND -- EURO FAILS AT KEY RETRACEMENT -- YEN NEARS LONG-TERM SUPPORT ZONE -- AUSSIE BREAKS SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE -- SPOT LIGHT CRUDE SURGES TO RESISTANCE LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
US DOLLAR IS POISED TO BREAKOUT AND CONTINUE UPTREND... Link for todays video. With continuing Yen weakness and recent declines in the Euro, the US Dollar Index ($USD) surged and is poised to break flag resistance. Chart 1 shows the index with a large rising channel since April 2011. The...
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Dollar Could Derail Bounce in Oil and Commodities
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The intermarket picture is getting interesting with some big moves last week. First, stocks and oil have been moving higher since April 19th. The US Oil Fund (USO) is up almost 9%, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 5%. Strength in these two helped...
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Secret Sauce: The Other 50% of Investing
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Over decades of training and teaching, it’s been my experience that the majority of both investors and traders are data driven, first and foremost. Their mantra seems to be “better living through numbers” or a hundred variations on this theme. But I’ve always wondered: with so much data...
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RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW -- MACD-HISTOGRAM EXTENDS POSITIVE STREAK FOR S&P 500 -- BREADTH CONFIRMS UNDERLYING STRENGTH IN BROADER MARKET -- SMALLER SPX STOCKS LAG, BUT EQUAL-WEIGH INDEX HITS NEW HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RISING PRICE CHANNEL SHOWS ROOM TO RUN FOR THE DOW... Link for todays video. Stocks have been on a tear since mid November and show now signs of reversing course. We can argue about overbought conditions, the employment participation rate and the Fed affect, but there is simply no debate...
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Percentage of S&P 500 Stocks above their 200-day Reaches Extreme
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 %Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R) is a breadth indicator that measures the degree of participation. The S&P 500 is trading near a 52-week high and over 90% of its components are above their 200-day moving average. This shows a high degree of participation and...
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Offensive Sectors Lead Major Index ETFs to New Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It does not get more bullish than this, which may be a sign that things are getting too bullish. The AD Lines, AD Volume Lines, major index ETFs and offensive sectors all hit 52-week highs this past week. It is as if the bull market got back in sync as...
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Euro Tests Key Support Level as USO Consolidates
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks took a little breather on Thursday as the major index ETFs edged lower. The losses were fractional, but the markets were clearly shaken by something in the afternoon. Rumors were swirling that the Fed may hint at changes to its quantitative easing program. This is believable because jobless claims...
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Defensive Sectors Run out of Gas
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged to new highs in May, but the defensive sectors did not go along for the ride. The CandeGlance charts below show the Healthcare SPDR (XLV), Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) and Utilities SPDR (XLU) peaking in late April. XLP and XLV have traded...
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FINANCIAL SECTOR IS SHOWING MARKET LEADERSHIP, BUT STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY CHEAP -- BANK STOCKS HAVE BEEN FINANCIAL LAGGARDS -- INSURANCE STOCKS HAVE BEEN FINANCIAL LEADERS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FINANCIAL SECTOR STILL LOOKS CHEAP... Fianancial stocks have been showing market leadership during May. That's usually a good sign for the rest of the stock market. Financial stocks have at least two things going for them. One is that they're in chart uptrends. The other is...
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Charts: APOL, DNDN, FNSR, HSY, LAZ, WIN, WTW
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
APOL Holds Support after Pullback.
FNSR Fails to Hold Breakout and Forms Bearish Pattern.
Plus DNDN, HSY, LAZ, WIN, WTW
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all...
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GLD Surges to Resistance as FXE Bounces off Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks are the place to be, the only place to be. The performance chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) up a whopping 15.21% year-to-date. 99.99% of fund managers would kill the other .01% for an annual return like this, not to mention a six...
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USING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDICES TO FIND THE MOVERS -- ENERGY BPI MAKES A BIG MOVE ON THE PERFCHART -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BPI IS BEST PERFORMER YEAR-TO-DATE -- FINANCE BPI HOVERS ABOVE 90% -- CONSUMER STAPLES BPI HITS ULTIMATE EXTREME
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING THE BULLISH PERCENT INDICES TO FIND THE MOVERS... Link for todays video. Today I am going to look at the Bullish Percent Indices for the nine sector SPDRs and the S&P 500. First, I will give a little primer on these breadth indicators. Second, I will show...
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60-minute P&F Chart Shows Clear Support for S&P 500
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Point & Figure charts filter out the noise and ignore time to give chartists a clean look at price action. On the 60-minute P&F chart below, the S&P 500 bounced off the 1540 level three times since mid March. This is about as clear of a...
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Offensive Sectors Turn Leaders as Defensive Sectors Turn Laggards
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains on Tuesday with small-caps and mid-caps leading the way. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ended down and showed some relative weakness though. Techs were weighed down by networking and semis. The Networking iShares (IGN) fell 1.3% and the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) was down .58% on...
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Dow Theory Affirms the Bull Market
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
According to Dow Theory, a bull signal is in force when both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports move to new highs. Well, this happened today as both the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports forged fresh 52-week highs. The April lows become the first levels to watch for signs of...
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MOST NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE 50-DAY AVERAGES -- NEW SECTOR LEADERS ARE IN GROWTH AREAS LIKE ENERGY, MATERIALS, INDUSTRIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY AS MONEY ROTATES OUT OF DEFENSIVE GROUPS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MOST % NYSE STOCKS ARE BACK ABOVE THEIR 50-DAY AVERAGE... My market message written two weeks ago (Tuesday April 23) carried the headline that "Half of market is in a correction". I showed the % of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day average falling below 50% during April. The situation...
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Charts of Interest: A, BOOM, EA, GCI, GT, JNS, NTAP, PG
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
BOOM Firms in Key Retracement Zone.
EA Gaps above Wedge Resistance.
Plus A, GCI, GT, JNS, NTAP, PG
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to...
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GLD Form Flag within a Flag - UUP Holds Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains with mid-caps, small-caps and micro-caps leading the way. The Russell Microcap Fund (IWC) was up almost 1% on the day. The sectors were mixed with the defensive sectors on the, well, defensive. The healthcare, consumer staples and utilities sectors were all down on the day. The...
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Chinese Internet Stocks are on the Move BIDU SINA YOKU SOHU
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Three of the four Chinese internet stocks shown below broke resistance with surges over the last 1-2 weeks. SOHU hit a new high with a break above 50. SINA broke wedge resistance and then gapped up. YOKU broke resistance with a high volume surge to 20. BIDU is the laggard...
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SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IGNORES NEWS AND BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- GERMAN AND FRENCH INDICES SURGE TO NEW HIGHS -- NON-FARM PAYROLLS EXTEND POSITIVE STREAK -- JOBLESS CLAIMS ARE TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION -- ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FLIRTS WITH 50
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IGNORES NEWS AND BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Recent news out of China has been less than positive, but the market appears to be ignoring this negative news. Reports last week showed a slow down in the manufacturing sector and todays release of the PMI showed...
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UUP Turns Volatile after Surge - GLD Stalls Near Flag Trend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It seems that market sentiment has done a 180 over the last few weeks. The defensive sectors went from leaders to laggards as the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Technology SPDR (XLK) led the market higher. The March employment report was a big disappointment, but the April report showed improvement...
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Technology SPDR Resumes Uptrend
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Thursday, April 25th I wrote about the technololgy sector being one of the markets weakest groups this year. That may finally be changing for the better. The chart below shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) exceeding its early April high to reach the highest level in six months. The XLK/...
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Earnings Really Do Matter
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Every quarter, my goal is to identify the absolute best stocks that I can find from both a technical and fundamental standpoint. I am a firm believer that stocks beating expectations, raising guidance, trading extraordinarily high amounts of volume and printing bullish candlesticks have much better odds of trading higher...
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Oil Service About to Play "Catch-Up"
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The current S&P 500 rally to new all-time highs may very well be the beginning of a "bubble-like" move to much higher levels in the weeks and months ahead. However, make no mistake, there is a great deal of risk in being long many stocks at...
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Testing Our New Economic Indicators
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
As I mentioned last time, we've recently started adding key economic datasets to our database so that you can chart them with our SharpCharts charting tool. This week, we added the weekly Unemployment Indexes including the Initial Jobless Claims number. The symbol for that index...
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Consumer Discretionary and Retail Continue to Lead the Market
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Equal-weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) and the Retail SPDR (XRT) hit 52-week highs in price and relative strength this week. New highs and relative strength in these two groups is very positive for the market overall. As its name suggests, the consumer discretionary sector is the most economically sensitive...
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Precious Metals Sentiment
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
With the recent volatility in gold and silver prices, it would be nice to get an idea of what kind of sentiment is being generated. Measures of sentiment tell us if there is too much optimism or pessimism in a particular market. There are a number of sentiment trackers for...
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Nasdaq Outperforms NY Composite for First Time This Year
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Nasdaq underperformed the NY Composite ($NYA) from September to January as the $COMPQ:$NYA ratio plunged for five months (yellow area). The ratio stabilized over the last few months, but the Nasdaq did not start outperforming until this week when the ratio broke above its January high. The Nasdaq...
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TREASURY YIELDS SURGE ON JOBS REPORT AND REVISIONS -- SETTING A CHANNEL TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 ETF -- LEADERSHIP IN TECH AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY IS POSITIVE -- EW TECHNOLOGY ETF BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURY YIELDS SURGE ON JOBS REPORT AND REVISIONS... Link for todays video. The markets went through the employment wringer this week with the ADP report showing weak job growth on Wednesday, jobless claims dropping to a five year low on Thursday and non-farm payrolls growing a better-than-expected 165,000 in...
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Peter Lynch: How He Helped My Evolution as an Investor
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Peter Lynch started managing the Fidelity Magellan Fund in 1978 with $20 Million in assets. When he retired in 1990, the fund had ballooned to $14 Billion largely as a result of his 29.2% average annualized return. Peter Lynch’s mantra was to “invest in what you know” and...
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Bulk of the Technical Evidence Remains Bullish
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks remain resilient both short-term and medium-term. SPY dipped in mid April, but surged in late April and hit a new high. The ETF also dipped on Wednesday, but surged to a new high on Thursday. With this rebound, the AD Volume Lines hit new highs and the cumulative Net...
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SPY Surges to New High as TLT Holds Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After getting spooked by the ADP Employment report on Wednesday, stocks greeted the five year low in Jobless Claims with a buying binge that pushed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) above its April high. QQQ also erased Wednesday's low and hit a new high for 2013....
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Microsoft and Intel Leave Google and Amazon in the Dust
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) sprang to life in April with the help of two unusual suspects. We would normally expect Google, Amazon or Apple to lead a big tech rally, but April saw the return of old tech as Microsoft and Intel stole the show. Both were up double...
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Small-Caps Underperform and Treasuries Break Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks started the day weak, ignored the Fed and finished the day weak. Small-caps led the way lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling over 2%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held up the best with the smallest decline. Treasuries moved higher as economic reports continued to disappoint. The...
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Charts of Interest: APD, CSCO, CTAS, EL, MDP, STJ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
APD Shows Relative Weakness as Triangle Takes Shape.
CSCO Fails to Follow Microsoft and Intel Higher.
Plus CTAS, EL, MDP, STJ
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We...
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A Few Greenies in a Sea of Red as AMD Surges
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market was down sharply on Wednesday, but there were a few big gainers. Chartists can spot the rebels by looking for green on the Sector Market Carpet. Today, we have AMD surging over 14% and T-Mobile (TMUS) advancing over 6%. Three of the top five gainers came from...
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IWM LEADS LOWER AS MDY FORMS BROADENING FORMATION -- MATERIALS SECTOR TURNS DOWN FROM RANGE RESISTANCE -- REBOUND STALLS FOR OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT/SERVICES SPDR -- COPPER-STOCK CORRELATION HITS LOWEST LEVEL IN OVER FIVE YEARS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM LAGS AS MDY FORMS BROADENING FORMATION... Link for todays video. The Fed has come and gone without much fanfare, and no real change in policy as the Fed reiterated its pledge to continue the bond-buying program ($85 billion per month). The policy statement also noted that the committee would...
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TLT Consolidates ahead of FOMC - UUP Breaks April Low
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way on Tuesday. Large techs, small-caps and mid-caps showed relative strength yesterday, but the overall gains were muted as we head into a FOMC announcement on Wednesday. The economic data...
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Tables Turn as Techs Lead and Defensive Sectors Lag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After months of leadership from the three defensive sectors, the tables turned over the last seven days as the Technology SPDR (XLK) started leading the market. Notice that the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) and Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP) are actually down since 22-April, while the Utilities SPDR (XLU) is up less...
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TECHNOLOGY SPDR EXCEEDS APRIL HIGH AND SHOWS NEW UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- APPLE AND MICROSOFT ARE LEADING GROUP HIGHER -- INTEL IS ANOTHER BIG TECH STOCK THAT'S RALLYING -- SO ARE OTHER CHIP STOCKS LIKE APPLIED MATERIALS, BROADCOM, AND NVIDIA
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHNOLOGY SPDR RESUMES UPTREND... Last Thursday's message wrote about the technololgy sector being one of the markets weakest groups this year. That may finally be changing for the better. Chart 1 shows the Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) exceeding its early April high to reach the highest level in...
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