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EXTENDING THE RAFF REGRESSION CHANNELS FOR MDY AND IWM -- XLB BREAKS SUPPORT AND SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- XME, COPX AND SLX WEIGH ON MATERIALS SECTOR -- COPPER ETN BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT -- ITB FAILS TO CONFIRM NEW HIGH IN SPY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EXTENDING THE RAFF REGRESSION CHANNELS FOR MDY AND IWM... Link for todays video. Last week I featured the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P Midcap SPDR (MDY) with Raff Regression Channels. Both ETFs moved to new highs on Tuesday and this means the Raff Regression Channels need...
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IWM Hits Channel Trend Line - USO Bounces off Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks marched higher again on Tuesday with small-caps leading the way. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained .88% and the S&P Small-cap ETF (IJR) advanced 1.10% on the day. Techs also participated with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) hitting a new high for 2013. Eight of the...
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Retail SPDR Leads with a 52-week High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market may be overbought and sentiment may seem overly bullish, but buying pressure continues to outpace selling pressure. Case-in-point: the Retail SPDR (XRT) surged to a fresh 52-week high on Tuesday and the price relative (XRT:SPY ratio) is challenging its November high. Strength in retailers is a...
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The Large Cap Rally is Impressive but...
If you aren't watching the small and mid-caps, you are missing out. To wit:
(Click here for a live version of this chart.)
Everyone is talking about the big rise in the S&P however, since a significant trough last November, the Small Caps have outperformed everything...
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Charts of Interest: AEO, ARO, CY, ESRX, NVDA, V
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CY Forms Descending Triangle.
NVDA Surges above Resistance on Good Volume.
Plus AEO, ARO, ESRX, V
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for...
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IWM Holds Channel and QQQ Holds Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
US stocks held up last week, but the advance certainly slowed. IWM led the market with a 1.04% gain last week. SPY was mostly flat with a .20 advance. QQQ declined .35% and QQEW lagged SPY with a .11% gain. Relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW)...
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Overlaying Indexes Using the Same Vertical Scale
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
Overlaid charts are a very powerful feature of StockCharts.com. Most people are familiar with using the "Price" Indicator with the "Behind Price" Position setting to create an overlaid chart. (If you aren't, be sure to read this article for more....
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2013 Sector Leaders are Energy and Financials
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR LEADERS YEAR TO DATE... Chart 1 plots relative strength ratios of the energy, financial, and industrial sectors versus the S&P 500 (the black zero line). Those three sectors have been the top performers year to date. Technology has been the weakest (on a relative basis). Let'...
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Six Important Short-Term Warning Signs for This Market
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
I remain bullish for 2013 and believe we could see 1700-1800 on the S&P 500 before the year is over. But I can't deny the short-term warning signs that are showing up everywhere. Let's take the issues one at a time.
1. Historical Tailwinds...
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Gold Now Approaching Critical Support
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Downward pressure in gold prices continued as very large funds liquidated substantial portions of their positions in the gold ETF (GLD). (See article.) Naturally, we need to look at the charts to give this story some context. (Charts were made before the close.)
The daily chart shows that price has...
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QQQ Hesitates, but the ETF is not Lost Just Yet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) just can't seem to find its mojo this year, but the 2013 trend is still up and the bulls still have the edge, albeit a slight edge. First, note that QQQ has been trending higher since mid November. A three month uptrend means...
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Targeting the Lower Channel Trend Line for the Silver Trust
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Gold, oil and silver fell sharply on Friday as the G20 meeting started in Moscow. The chart below shows the Silver Trust (SLV) forming a lower high in late January and plunging to the early January low. The lower trend line of the falling channel marks the next support level...
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QQQ HOLDS BREAKOUT WITH SMALLER CONSOLIDATION -- RSI FAILURE SWINGS TAKE SHAPE IN XLY, SPY, XHB AND IGN -- BULLISH PERCENT INDEX LAGS THE DOW INDUSTRIALS -- LIGHT CRUDE AND BRENT CRUDE FALL SHARPLY -- FALLING FLAGS FORM IN THREE EMERGING MARKET ETFS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ HOLDS BREAKOUT WITH SMALLER CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. Last week I wrote about narrowing Bollinger Bands in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the ETF broke above the upper band with a close above 68 last Thursday. This move looked significant because QQQ also broke out of a...
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Personal Productivity & Routines
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Have you heard the famous cliché about discipline? “You’ve got to do what you have to do before you can do what you want to do.” Every stock market investor seems to be spring-loaded to his or her favorite news service, blog, website or shall I politely call it...
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Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines Hit 52-week Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the indicator summary because the market did not move much this week. Despite little movement, IWM, MDY, XLF and several other key ETFs hit new highs. The uptrend, or rather grind higher, continues. Note that the Nasdaq AD Volume Line and NYSE AD Volume Line...
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KOL Perks up with Trend Line Break - TLT Sets Bear Trap
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was another mixed day overall,but the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edged to another 52-week high with a .25% gain. The ETF is now up seven of the last ten days this month. Even though the daily gains have been relatively small, IWM is up 3.08% since its...
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Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR Surges to 52-week High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Oil related stocks remain red hot as the Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR (XES) surged over 2% on Thursday and exceeded its 2012 high. The uptrend just gets steeper as the advance accelerated the last five weeks. XES is overbought like the rest of the market, but showing no...
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2013 SECTOR LEADERS ARE ENERGY AND FINANCIALS -- THEIR ETFS HAVE ACHIEVED BULLISH BREAKOUTS -- FINANCIAL LEADERS INCLUDE AMERICAN EXPRESS, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND JP MORGAN -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF NEARS 10-YEAR HIGH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SECTOR LEADERS YEAR TO DATE... Chart 1 plots relative strength ratios of the energy, financial, and industrial sectors versus the S&P 500 (the black zero line). Those three sectors have been the top performers year to date. Technology has been the weakest (on a relative basis). Let'...
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A Bearish Failure Swing Lurks in SPY - FXE Forms Bear Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Guess what? Stocks were mixed again on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) edged lower, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and other major index ETFs edged higher. Once again, "edged" is the key word here because price movements were miniscule. Nevertheless, the Russell 2000 ETF...
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Charts of Interest: AFFX, ARO, JCP, LULU, LXK, TIBX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
JCP Shows Interesting Volume Trend the Last Five Weeks.
LULU Forms Pennant Near Support.
Plus AFFX, ARO, TIBX
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to...
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Cheesecake Factory Forms Lower High on Big Volume
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though exchange volume remains relatively light, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is trading above average volume and falling sharply. Notice that CAKE formed a lower high in early February and the next support zone resides in the 32.25-32.5 area.
Click this image for a live chart....
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USING RAFF AND AROON TO DEFINE THE UPTRENDS IN MDY AND IWM -- XLI, XLY AND XLF RECORD FRESH NEW HIGHS -- BASIC MATERIALS SPDR STILL SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS -- NOOSE TIGHTENS FOR CONSOLIDATION IN THE STEEL ETF
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING RAFF AND AROON TO DEFINE THE UPTRENDS IN MDY AND IWM... Link for todays video. The trend is your friend until the end. While I cannot tell you when these uptrends will end, I can offer a technical approach to define the trend and marking key support. It is...
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XLF Grinds to Another New High - TLT Forms Triangle
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mixed again on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged lower because Apple was weak, but the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged higher because financials were strong. Volume was below average again, but I would not read too much into this because we seem to be...
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Utilities SPDR Quietly Challenges October High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) bottomed along with the broader market in mid November and advanced the last three months, but the advance has lagged in more ways than one. XLU is up less than SPY and SPY is already above its October high. Nevertheless, XLU is in a clear uptrend...
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Charts of Interest: DD, FB, GT, ILMN, INTC, PCS, SCTY, SSYS
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
DD Breaks Wedge Resistance with Good Volume.
SCTY Surges above Triangle Trend Line.
Plus FB, GT, ILMN, INTC, PCS, SSYS
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all...
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Gold and GDX Break Down - USO Breaks Flag Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mixed on Monday with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edging lower (.02%) and the S&P 500 Equal-Weight ETF (RSP) edging higher (.03%). Yes, it was a mixed, and dull, day. The sector SPDRs were also mixed and the moves were small. The Gold Miners...
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Bearish Candlestick Reversal Patterns Increase on Predefined Scans Page
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There was an uptick in the number of bearish candlestick reversals on Monday afternoon. As the screen shot below shows, there were 67 bearish engulfing patterns as of 1:51PM ET. There were also 13 dark cloud patterns and over 100 harami, which are like inside days. Chartists can click...
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SPY ADVANCES FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE WEEKS -- QQQ LAGS SPY, BUT REMAINS IN UPTREND -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR TESTS RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TREND LINE -- XRT HOLDS CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT -- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT TO EXTEND DOWNTREND
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY ADVANCES FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE WEEKS... Link for todays video. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up six consecutive weeks and ten of the last twelve (since mid November). Even though the advance has turned into a grind this year, chart 1 shows SPY continuing to gain ground...
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Treasuries Rise and Euro Falls, But Stocks Remain Strong
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks bucked the intermarket headwinds and mixed economic data to finish positive again last week. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are now up six consecutive weeks. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also got into the bull mood with a close above its...
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Watch the Rising Trend Line on the NYSE McClellan Summation Index
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) has been rising since the latter part of November and recently exceeded its September high. The trend here is clearly up with the November trend line marking first support. Even though the summation index flattened over the past week, it has yet to break this...
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QQQ BREAKS ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND - APPLE BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE AS MICROSOFT FORMS FALLING FLAG -- SEMICONDUCTOR ETF EXCEEDS 2012 HIGH -- TAIWAN, TEXAS AND ANALOG LEAD SEMIS HIGHER -- SECTOR PERFORMANCE TURNS A BIT DEFENSIVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
QQQ BREAKS ABOVE UPPER BOLLINGER BAND... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is making a move on Friday with an early surge above the upper Bollinger Band. Chart 1 shows QQQ trading above its mid January high and exceeding consolidation resistance. This breakout, should it hold, follows...
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Staying Atop the Market
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
The stock market is always one step ahead of you. The sooner you accept this fact, the better for your trading results. It helps to think of the market like the rabbit on the rail at the greyhound racetrack. As an investor, you should never mistake yourself for the rabbit...
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Indicator Summary Shows No Weakness, But Stocks are Overbought
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the indicator summary because the market did not move much this week. Stocks have been in a stalling pattern the last two weeks. The medium-term and long-term trends are clearly up, but this stall could signal the start of a corrective period that could last...
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IWM Holds Channel as QQQ Bounces off Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market is holding up, but some external indicators are not. First, the US Dollar Fund (UUP) surged over the last few days and broke short-term resistance. Also note that bear trap from last Friday-Monday. Second, the Euro is falling has tensions heat up in Italy and Spain. Berlusconi,...
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Technical Alerts from StockCharts Remain Positive in February
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The predefined technical alerts at StockCharts.com have been decidedly positive since January 2nd. You can view the history on the summary page. February continues to be a good month with eleven positive alerts and zero negative alerts. These realtime alerts are color coded for an easy assessment. You can...
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NIKKEI 225 REACHES FOUR YEAR HIGH AS YEN HITS THREE YEAR LOW -- JAPAN ISHARES LAG BEHIND NIKKEI BECAUSE OF FALLING YEN -- WISDOMTREE FUND OFFERS A WAY TO HEDGE JAPANESE STOCKS AGAINST A WEAKER YEN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
JAPAN STOCK INDEX REACHES FOUR YEAR HIGH ... Previous messages have written about the strong upturn in Japanese stocks resulting largely from a tumble in the Japanese yen. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Nikkei 225 Index trading above its early 2010 peak to reach the highest level since...
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Charts of Interest: AA, AEO, INTC, TEVA, USB
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AA Bounces off Gap Zone.
AEO Breaks Wedge Resistance.
Plus INTC, TEVA, USB
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it...
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Intermarket Picture Picking up - TLT Bases as UUP Breaks Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mixed on Wednesday as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) edged lower and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) edged higher. Trading was seriously subdued in the sector SPDRs. Utilities SPDR (XLU) provided the biggest advance (.30%), while the Technology SPDR (XLK) provided the biggest loss (.03%). These...
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Intel Traces out Bear Flag after Gap
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Intel (INTC) recorded a 52-week low in mid November and bounced with the rest of the market over the next two months. This bounce abruptly ended with a gap down to the mid November trend line. With a feeble rise the last few weeks, Intel formed a bear flag and...
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USING FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS AND BROKEN RESISTANCE FOR SUPPORT FOR $SPX AND $INDU -- US STEEL LEADS STEEL ETF HIGHER -- SHANGHAI COMPOSITE JOINS THE OVERBOUGHT PARADE -- BOLLINGER BAND WIDTH HITS HISTORIC LOW FOR QQQ -- WATCHING THE TOP TEN STOCKS IN QQQ
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
USING FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS AND BROKEN RESISTANCE TO SET SUPPORT... Link for todays video. With the S&P 500 trading near a 52-week high and in a clear uptrend, trend followers would prefer long positions over short positions. However, the S&P 500 is up over 7% since December...
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