Stocks firmed on Wednesday with the major index ETFs putting in small gains for the day. The Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) led the way with a .78% advance and a fresh 52-week high. This is a clear sign that the Nasdaq 100 as a whole is strong. The Nasdaq... READ MORE
The Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) declined from mid September to early November and then formed a triangle consolidation. After a fall last week, the ETF is testing triangle support and a break below 27.3 would be bearish. Notice that RSI is also consolidating with support at 40 and resistance... READ MORE
TECHNOLOGY SPDR STALLS AT BROKEN RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. After surging on 31-Dec and 2-Jan, stocks took a breather over the last few days. Chart 1 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) breaking above its December highs with a huge move. Broken resistance from these highs turns into the first... READ MORE
Stocks extended their corrective period on Tuesday as the major index ETFs finished with small losses. Note that stocks surged on 31-Dec and 2-Jan as the major index ETFs forged big gaps. Stocks were overbought at this stage and have pretty much consolidated the last few days. The ability to... READ MORE
The 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) surged over the last two weeks, but remains at relatively low levels historically. Also note that the yield curve is still quite steep with the 2-Year Treasury Yield ($UST2Y) hovering around .27% and the 10-year Treasury Yield near 1.88%. A steep yield curve is... READ MORE
AEO Turns Sharply Lower. CTXS Holds Gap and Challenges Resistance. Plus GES, UDR, T, VZ This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
Trading was rather quiet as the world returned to work on Monday. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed its third spinning top candlestick in as many days. Spinning tops feature small bodies (open-close range) and relatively equal upper-lower shadows (high-low range). They indicate indecision that can sometimes foreshadow... READ MORE
Chartists can find the leaders and the laqgards by sifting through the Sector Summary. This image shows the industry groups within the materials sector. Eight of the nine are down. The DJ US Steel Index ($DJUSST) is the lone gainer as it bucks the market. Chartists can click on the... READ MORE
DOW HOLDS LONG-TERM SUPPORT WITH BIG BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Lets start the week by stepping back and looking a long-term chart for the Dow Industrials. Chart 1 shows weekly bars for the Dow Industrials with the 104-week simple moving average. This two year moving average captures the long-term... READ MORE
Stocks took a big bite of risk to start the year. Last week's gains were split between years with the surge starting on December 31st and continuing on January 2nd. Stocks consolidated the last two days of the week and held on to their gains. The return to... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Happy 2013! I'd thought we'd start the year off with a bang by announcing a major new section of our website - the StockCharts Videos Archive. We've been working hard creating new educational videos that can help anyone understand how to... READ MORE
One of the most impressive technical developments of Wednesday's stock surge was the ability of the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) to reach a record high. [The S&P 500 Midcap Index did the same]. The chart shows the RUT closing above previous highs reached during... READ MORE
January 2013 has rolled in, with the "fiscal cliff" solved for the moment; and now there are concerns "QE-4" will end sooner rather than later...and perhaps below 2013 ends. Collectively, the passing of the fiscal cliff and the new QE-4 concerns pushed 10-year note yields... READ MORE
Calculating from the Four-Year Cycle low in 2009, the next cycle low is due in two months, but unless there is a major crash, that projection will not be realized. In fact, we can't even say that there has been a cycle crest yet, although, given the proximity... READ MORE
Happy New Year!!! Here's to good health and good fortune in 2013! Now is the time when market pundits give their predictions for the stock market for the upcoming year. While it might be entertaining to try to figure out where the S&P 500 might finish... READ MORE
It was a volatile week for gold and gold miners, but the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) remains at an interesting juncture that warrants attention. After surging above 47 to start the New Year, the Fed minutes on Wednesday put some doubts on the future of quantitative easing. Keep in mind... READ MORE
Microsoft (MSFT) is having a tough year already as the stock failed to clear resistance and moved sharply lower the last two days. Resistance at 27.75 stems from broken support and the November-December highs. The indicator window shows OBV moving steadily lower, which indicates continued selling pressure. Click this... READ MORE
Think of the new year as a promotion for you. The exercise is simple in its execution and somewhat more challenging in its implementation. You’ve been promoted and are moving upstairs to Suite #2013 which has an improved view and is much more spacious for all your investment activities.... READ MORE
GOLD AND SILVER ETFS FALL BACK TO POTENTIAL SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Gold and silver were knocked quite hard after the Fed minutes on Thursday and continued lower on Friday. Some Fed members think that quantitative easing will slow or end sometime in 2013. This revelation comes after the... READ MORE
Strength over the past week triggered three upgrades for the indicator summary. The Nasdaq AD Line turned bullish with a break above its December high. The $VIX and $VXN plunged towards support to turn bullish. Fresh 52-week highs in the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000... READ MORE
The Fed minutes threw the intermarket arena a curve ball on Thursday. Basically, the Fed admitted that the affects of quantitative easing were diminishing over time and it was running out of bullets. This news sent Treasuries sharply lower, the Dollar sharply higher and gold sharply lower. Stocks and oil... READ MORE
SMALL CAP INDEX HITS RECORD HIGH... One of the most impressive technical developments of Wednesday's stock surge was the ability of the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (RUT) to reach a record high. [The S&P 500 Midcap Index did the same]. Chart 1 shows the RUT... READ MORE
Not all stocks participated in Wednesday's big advance. Lululemon (LULU) started strong, but quickly succumbed to selling pressure and closed sharply lower. With a strong open and weak close, a bearish engulfing pattern formed at resistance. Also notice that MACD moved below its signal line last week. Click... READ MORE
BOOM Breaks Consolidation Resistance with Good Volume. BSX Forms Inverse HS Pattern. Plus AMKR, IPI, NBR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
Stocks followed through on the New Year's Eve reversals with gaps and strong gains to start the year. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) surged over 5% the last two days. IWM and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) recorded 52-week highs... READ MORE
Lots of stocks are coming across the gap up scan today (297 at last count). The chart below shows one list member, Oshkosh, gapping up and breaking above its mid December high. This move reinforces support in the 28 area. Also notice that MACD moved above its signal line over... READ MORE
STOCKS SURGE AFTER CONGRESS PASSES TAX DEAL... Link for todays video. Stocks surged on the heels of a new year and a new tax deal. Stocks ended the year strong as several major index ETFs formed bullish engulfing patterns on Monday, December 31st. These patterns reflected optimism that Washington would... READ MORE
The markets got a taste for risk as the Senate debated the fiscal cliff on Friday. A bill did indeed pass by a wide margin and the House subsequently passed the bill as well. The bill does provide some relief from the fiscal slope, but does little to fix the... READ MORE
The Fed announced another round of quantitative easing on September 13th and Treasuries have yet to cooperate with this maneuver. Instead of a specific program, the Fed announced an open-ended quantitative easing program that would begin in January 2013. QE is supposed to be bearish for treasuries because the Fed... READ MORE
The Technology SPDR (XLK) led the market in the first half of the year, but lagged the market in the second half and underperformed the S&P 500. The technology sector accounts for over 19% of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and is by far the biggest... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) was all over the place in 2012, but ended the year slightly lower than where it started. The index started the year around 80, surged to 84 and closed at 79.62 on Friday. From February to December, a large head-and-shoulders reversal formed with a... READ MORE
Big banks came to life in 2012 as the Finance SPDR (XLF) started the year strong and ended strong. XLK opened 2012 just above 13 and is likely to finish near a 52-week high. The ETF scored a 52-week high with the move above 16.5 in mid January and... READ MORE
The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) came to life over the last two months and surged above its March high with a massive surge. Notice that the index held above its 2009 lows and also broke channel resistance in the process. This move opens the door to the next resistance zone in... READ MORE
It’s hard to improve upon the short and pithy advice from my favorite founding father, Benjamin Franklin. “Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.” In 2013, promise yourself to embrace your goals, your dreams and... READ MORE
SPY STALLS BELOW SEPTEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Stocks surged the last two weeks of November and then stalled the last four weeks. The overall trend remains up, but the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is in danger of forming a lower high. Chartists should watch this carefully... READ MORE
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but I am concerned that the major index ETFs may be forming lower highs. With the decline over the last six days, SPY and DIA peaked below their September highs and lower highs could be forming. Relative weakness in the Nasdaq is also... READ MORE
Ladies and gentlemen, the fiscal cliff is a farce built up by the media and the politicians. It is not a cliff, but rather a slope that can be remedied in January, February or even March. Of course, the longer the slope extends, the worse for the economy and the... READ MORE
The Dow has fallen over 300 points in the last six trading days and is now testing the 200-day moving average. The senior Average broke above this key average in early December and needs to hold the breakout. A break back below 13000 would be quite negative. MACD is already... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR HAS LED ALL YEAR... The market's two strongest sectors during 2012 have been financials and consumer discretionary. After hitting a new record high earlier this month, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) has started to slip a bit, but is still holding up better than the... READ MORE
Macy's (M) is having a rough season as the stock broke the 200-day moving average and support at 37.50 the last few days. Also notice that stock gapped down four days ago and fell on high volume just before Christmas. This gap zone becomes the first resistance... READ MORE