Stocks edged higher in mixed trading. The major index ETFs ended the day with small gains, but the sectors were split. In particular, the Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) edged lower, while the Technology SPDR (XLK) and the Industrials SPDR (XLI) moved higher. Buoyed by recent... READ MORE
ATVI Forms Bull Flag at Resistance. CHRW Consolidates with Triangle. Plus BMY, BSX, CRM, MDR, VIP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
After a surge from mid to late November, Expeditors International (EXPD) hit resistance from the early November high around 38. A falling flag formed into early December and the stock broke flag resistance with a surge above 38 on Monday. This signals a continuation of the prior advance and the... READ MORE
QQQ AFFIRMS RESISTANCE WITH DARK CLOUD... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) further affirmed resistance just above 66 with a dark cloud pattern last week. Based on the three weekly highs in October, I first set resistance here in the 28-Nov Market Message Resistance. Dark clouds form... READ MORE
Stocks remain dazed and confused. After falling sharply the first two weeks of November, stocks bottomed in mid November and surged the next two weeks. These gains wiped out the early November losses and made it as if November never really happened. Despite this strong rally, stocks hit a wall... READ MORE
Homebuilders have been a leading industry group throughout the S&P 500 rally off the 2009 lows. This strength has been particularly obvious over the past year. Looking strictly at a shorter-term chart, technical indicators couldn't look much better. Check it out: While homebuilders did fall below... READ MORE
The Dow Jones Transportation Index ($DJT) is on the verge of a major breakout that could see prices rise by up to +20%. Quite simply, the developing bullish pennant pattern would suggest that once a breakout of trendline resistance materializes, then a measured towards the 6000 to 6200 zone becomes... READ MORE
Foreign stocks look technically stronger than the U.S. at the moment. Tuesday's message showed EAFE iShares testing their spring high. Emerging markets are rising as well. A more comprehensive measure of foreign stocks that includes developed and emerging markets is shown below. Chart 1 shows the Vanguard... READ MORE
Gasoline Jan13 (^RBF13) formed a lower high and broke support with a sharp decline this week. First, notice that the trend since mid September is down with a series of lower lows and lower highs taking shape the last few months. This week's breakdown signals a continuation of... READ MORE
Apple (AAPL) tested its mid November low and long-term support with a dip below 520 on Thursday. Support in the 520 area extends back to the May low. Notice how the stock forged an intraday reversal for the second time in two months. Also notice that volume exceeded 40 million... READ MORE
INDUSTRIALS SPDR CHALLENGES RESISTANCE ... Link for todays video. The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is showing some relative strength with a surge all the way to its early November high. Also notice that this high corresponds with the September-October high and a breakout here would forge a 52-week high. Yes, XLI is... READ MORE
Over the many years that I’ve taught new investors, a single common denominator stands out amongst those who grow into consistently profitable investors. It’s rather simple. They are patient investors who are willing to take a longer view and therefore deliberately and slowly build a solid foundation upon... READ MORE
Stocks held their gains with consolidations this week and two upgrades pushed the indicator summary back into positive territory. Nasdaq and NYSE Net New Highs turned bullish again. Nasdaq Net New Highs are not as strong as NYSE Net New Highs though. The momentum group also turned bullish as the... READ MORE
Stocks will simply not give up the bid or the hope of a fiscal cliff solution. The major index ETFs became short-term oversold last week and pretty much consolidated this week. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) held up the best with... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS NEAR UPSIDE BREAKOUT... Foreign stocks look technically stronger than the U.S. at the moment. Tuesday's message showed EAFE iShares testing their spring high. Emerging markets are rising as well. A more comprehensive measure of foreign stocks that includes developed and emerging markets is shown below.... READ MORE
The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is challenging resistance with a big surge over the last few weeks. Aroon confirms strength as Aroon Up (green) moved above Aroon Down (red) and hit the +100 level. This sometimes signals the start of a new trend. You can read more about Aroon... READ MORE
Stocks continued to drift on Wednesday with the major index ETFs finishing mixed. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) advanced .66% as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) plunged 1.11%. Apple led the way lower for QQQ. Note that the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) was up .37% and it was... READ MORE
AMTD Forms a High and Tight Pennant. CERN Consolidates after Massive Gap. Plus BTU, JOY, LSI, SYMC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
Acheck on the sector summary shows the finance, industrials and utilities sectors leading the market on Wednesday afternoon with 1+ percent gains. Users can click on the sector names to drill down and see which industry groups are leading and lagging within the sector. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
SMALL AND MID-CAPS START LEADING THE STOCK MARKET... Link for todays video. Even though the stock market looks quite mixed overall, small-caps and mid-caps are starting to outperform and this could be positive. Chart 1 shows the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) moving all the way back to... READ MORE
After a sharp advance the prior two weeks, stocks became short-term overbought and stalled the last two days. Resistance levels from prior consolidations and key retracements were also evident on the daily charts. Stocks looked ripe for at least a pullback, but downside has been limited this week. SPY is... READ MORE
Aaron (AAN) surged above 32 and then fell all the way back below 29. Even though this decline looks excessive, note that it retraced 62% of the prior decline and the stock firmed near broken resistance. A break above the mid November high on good volume would be bullish. Click... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS OUTPERFORM USA SINCE THE SUMMER... Chart 1 compares the S&P 500 to EAFE iShares (EFA) over the last two years. Although both lines have risen and fallen together (as they usually do), their rates of ascent have differed. Both bottomed during the fourth quarter of last... READ MORE
It was drop and pop last Wednesday as stocks opened weak and then rallied. Monday was different as stocks opened strong and then sold off. The S&P 500 was up just over 1/2% in early trading, but fell after the ISM Manufacturing Index was reported. ISM fell... READ MORE
ARO Forms Ascending Triangle. DE Holds Gap within Short-Term Downtrend. Plus HON, MMM, MS, X This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
After hitting big resistance in the 26 area, the Coal ETF (KOL) moved sharply lower and then formed a rising flag the last two weeks. These are bearish continuation patterns that typically form after a sharp decline. A move below flag support would signal a continuation lower. Click this image... READ MORE
STOCKS PULLBACK AND TREASURIES BOUNCE AFTER ISM... Link for todays video. Its could be a big week for the treasury market - and possibly the stock market too. No, I do not think we will see a resolution to the fiscal cliff this week. Instead, it is a big week... READ MORE
Despite all this talk on the fiscal cliff, it seems that the Euro is more important to the stock market right now. On the 60-minute chart, the indicator window shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) bottoming on 13-Nov and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bottoming on 16-Nov. Both... READ MORE
The Home Construction iShares broke below support in mid November, but this break did not hold as the ETF quickly surged back above 20. A flat consolidation has since formed and traders should watch these boundaries for the next directional clue. An upside breakout signals a continuation higher, while a... READ MORE
SETTING SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT UPSWING... Link for todays video. The current two-week stock market advance is the biggest since September. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up around 7%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is up around 6% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up around... READ MORE
I’d like to paraphrase a fishing analogy. Show someone how to invest by following a winning trading methodology and he/she will be happy for awhile. Teach someone how to think effectively about trading and he/she will be profitable for a lifetime. All too often as investors, our... READ MORE
<div style="width: 600px;">With a sharp rally the last two weeks, several indicator groups were upgraded. Namely, the NYSE AD Line surged to its October-November highs and is close to a 52-week high. The cumulative line for NYSE Net New Highs hit a new high.... READ MORE
On the 60-minute chart, SPY edged higher on Thursday and moved to the top of its resistance zone. Broken support, the early November highs and the 61.80% retracement mark resistance in the 143 area. Even though the bigger trend may be down, this short-term upswing remains in play as... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLIMB BACK OVER 200-DAY LINES... Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials climbing back over its 200-day moving average. It still needs to clear its 50-day line and initial chart resistance near 13300 to turn its short-term trend higher. The Dow bounced off chart support along its July lows... READ MORE
First Solar (FSLR) is leading solar stocks with an ascending triangle breakout on expanding volume. As a bullish continuation pattern, the breakout signals a continuation of the prior advance and targets a move to the low 30s. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
Stocks started the day weak as the major index ETFs gapped down on the open. This gap did not last long as stocks rallied the rest of the day and closed higher. The actual gains were not huge, but the ability to rally after a gap down shows resilience. The... READ MORE
AA Bounces off Support with mini-breakout. ORCL Advances Nine Days Straight. Plus ALTR, BOOM, KLAC, LLTC, ORCL, TJX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
Momentum is improving for lululemon (LULU) as MACD turned positive for the first time since late October. On the price chart, the stock is challenging the upper trend line of a falling channel. A breakout would signal a continuation of the August-September advance and target a move to new highs.... READ MORE
QQQ REMAINS SHORT OF BREAKOUT... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) surged with the rest of the market last week, but has yet to follow through and produce a meaningful breakout. Chart 1 shows QQQ falling over 10% with a move below 62 and then rebounding with... READ MORE
Stocks edged lower on Tuesday as the major index ETFs worked off short-term overbought conditions. Eight of the nine sectors were lower with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and Energy SPDR (XLE) leading the decline. Both lost around .90% on the day. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) bucked selling pressure with a... READ MORE