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EAFE ISHARES STILL TESTING MARCH HIGH -- RISING EURO IS GIVING A BOOST TO FOREIGN STOCKS -- EMERGING MARKETS ISHARES CONSOLIDATE IN UPTREND -- CHINESE ISHARES ACHIEVE UPSIDE BREAKOUT -- APPLE CORRECTION IS TESTING SUPPORT LINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
EAFE ISHARES STILL TESTING MARCH HIGH... There's good and bad news in Chart 1 which plots the trend of EAFE iShares (EFA). [EAFE stands for Europe Australasia and Far East]. The bad news is that it has yet to clear its March high (blue line). It did so...
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SPY Tests Support - USO Fails at Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks took it on the chin again with more selling pressure on Wednesday. The declines were modest with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) falling around 1% and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling just .16%. After a four day decline, stocks are getting short-term oversold and some of the major...
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Charts of Interest: AAPL, AIV, AMT, BHP, CNL, LM, PEP
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Be careful with stocks about to report earnings.
AAPL Forms High Volume Hammer.
AIV Surges off Support with Good Volume.
Plus AMT, BHP, CNL, LM, PEP
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security...
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Finance Sector Shows Some Green on the Market Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector Market Carpet is mostly red on Wednesday, but there are some pockets of strength. Overall, the finance is holding up the best and the energy sector is faring the worst. The consumer discretionary and materials sectors also show red and relative weakness on Wednesday.
Click this image for...
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NEW TREND EMERGING SIGNAL FROM CCI -- S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHT ETF BREAKS FLAG SUPPORT -- NETWORKING AND INTERNET ETFS LEAD TECHS LOWER -- FINANCE SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH -- US DOLLAR INDEX HOLDS ABOVE FEBRUARY LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NEW TREND EMERGING SIGNAL FROM CCI... Link for todays video. Before getting too bearish on the stock market, keep in mind that the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has yet to break its late September low and is just 2% below its 52-week high. In other words, this decline...
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IWM Breaks Flag Support - USO Surges towards Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks got smacked hard on Tuesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) again leading the way down. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was also relatively weak with a 1.17% decline on the day. Eight of the nine sectors were lower with the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) falling the most....
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Russell 2000 Tests 50-day SMA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Russell 2000 ($RUT) is leading the market lower and closing in on its rising 50-day simple moving average. Broken resistance from the May-August highs also marks potential support in the 820-830 area. Small-caps ($RUT) are leading the market lower since mid September.
Click this image for a live chart....
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SPY Holds Breakout - QQQ Tests Support and Underperforms
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks edged lower with the Apple-laden Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the way (-.95%). The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) was also relatively weak with a .63% decline on the day. Seven of the nine sectors were lower with the Technology SPDR (XLK) falling over 1%. The Energy SPDR (XLE)...
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Charts: ADI, AKS, ANF, CLF, NUE, RHT, SO, VALE, YUM
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ADI Gaps Below Wedge Support.
VALE Bounces off Key Retracement with Big Volume.
Plus AKS, ANF, CLF, NUE, PMTC, RHT, SO, YUM
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...
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FirstTrust Internet ETF Hits Resistance from Shooting Star
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The FirstTrust Internet ETF (FDN) peaked in mid September with a shooting star candlestick. After dipping below 37.50, the ETF bounced back to this peak and formed a bearish engulfing last week. These two affirm resistance at 39. A break below 38 would confirm the bearish engulfing pattern.
Click...
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TECHNICAL RANK FOR QQQ BREAKS BELOW 50 -- IWM BATTLES TO HOLD BREAKOUT -- SEMICONDUCTOR SPDR FORMS TWO HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS PATTERNS -- OIL FALLS BACK BELOW $90 -- ENERGY SPDR FORMS BEARISH PENNANT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TECHNICAL RANK FOR QQQ BREAKS BELOW 50... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) broke their spring highs in August-September and these are the first levels to watch for signs of a trend reversal. Chart 1 shows QQQ breaking resistance around 68...
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XLK Underperforms as QQQ Forms Bear Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was a fairly good week for the bulls. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) gained around 1.5%. The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the way with a 3% gain. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Industrials SPDR (XLI) also performed well with...
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New Performance Chart Workbench lets you create, annotate and save SharpChart-based PerfCharts
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
We've had interactive, Java-based PerfCharts going back to the very start of the website. And while those PerfCharts are very useful, they do have some limitations. For one, members cannot save them into their accounts. Also, our interactive PerfCharts cannot be annotated with our ChartNotes...
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TIPS AND GOLD RELINK AFTER QE3
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Two of the top performing assets since the September 13 launch of QE3 have been Treasury Inflation Protected Securites (TIPS) and gold. That makes sense considering that both are used as hedges against inflation. The fact is that both markets have had a strong correlation over the last decade. Chart...
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BEARS GONE, BULLS BEGIN FOR NATURAL GAS
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
Quite simply, a bear market has ended, and a bull market has begun in the Natural Gas market. This has been quite some time in the making, for the relationship between natural gas and crude oil has been skewed for a number of years in favor of natural gas. Now,...
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FOURTH QUARTER OUTLOOK
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
To be honest, I'm not a big fan of providing outlooks too far into the future because prices change continually. As a technician, I realize charts can change daily. Therefore, I have to be willing to change my thinking on a dime and, if you're managing...
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SOARING GAS PRICES IN CALIFORNIA
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
According to a news clip I just saw, there is a gas station in the Los Angeles area currently selling regular gasoline for $5.58/gallon. Some gas stations are shutting down because the owners don't want to buy gas at these prices for fear that they won&...
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Metals and Mining SPDR Battles Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Metals & Mining SPDR (XME) is battling to hold its resistance breakout. XME broke resistance with a big surge in early September and broken resistance turns into first support in the 43 area. This is a classic tenet of technical analysis: broken resistance turns support. A spinning top formed...
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DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP SHOWS INVESTORS ARE STILL IN DEFENSIVE MOOD -- RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN SMALL CAPS AND TECHNOLOGY IS A SHORT-TERM WARNING SIGN -- SO IS THE DOWNTURN IN APPLE SHARES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP ... Despite the ability of the U.S. stock market to reach the highest level since 2007, investors still appear to be in a defensive mood. Over the last week, for example, two of the market's strongest groups were healthcare and consumer staples. Charts 1 and 2...
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QQQ Turns Into Underperformer
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is up since late August, but the price relative is down. The price relative is the QQQ:SPY ratio, which measures relative performance. This ratio peaked in late August and moved sharply lower the last 5-6 weeks. This means QQQ is underperforming the broader market....
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TREASURIES DROP AND YIELDS SURGE AFTER EMPLOYMENT DATA -- IWM AND MDY BREAK CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- METALS & MINING SPDR BATTLES BREAKOUT -- COPPER ETF BREAKS FLAG RESISTANCE -- DOLLAR PLUNGES AFTER JOBS REPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURIES DROP AND YIELDS SURGE AFTER EMPLOYMENT DATA... Link for todays video. The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 114,000 non-farm payrolls (jobs) in September. Also note that non-farm payrolls for July and August were both revised higher, by around 40,000 jobs each. The unemployment rate...
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Stock Market Mastery Part III: The Equation
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Stock market mastery has many components, but the first step is to acknowledge that it all starts with you – the investor self. Jesse Livermore once told his sons: “Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.” He knew that his biggest enemies were his...
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Breadth Remains Bullish, But Small-Caps Show Weakness
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The bulk of the evidence remains bullish, but there were two downgrades based on relative weakness in the technology sector. The offensive sectors are split with the consumer discretionary and finance sectors showing relative strength, but the technology and industrials sectors showing relative weakness. By extension, Nasdaq performance has been...
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MDY Breaks Resistance - UUP Breaks Channel Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The markets moved to risk-on mode on Thursday as stocks edged higher, treasuries fell, oil surged around 5%, the Dollar fell and the Euro rose. And now for the employment report. The major index ETFs moved modestly higher with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way...
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Finance and Energy Sectors See Green on Market Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector Market Carpet shows the Energy SPDR (XLE) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) with the most green. The average energy stock is up 1.6% and the average finance stock is up 1.1%. XLE is getting an oversold bounce after Wednesday's decline. XLF is poised for...
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The Moment-of-Truth for SPY - XRT Forms Harami
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
I get the feeling that this market does not want to go down. As with late August, the major index ETFs underwent a mild correction the last three weeks. There was a sharp decline last week, but selling pressure dried up and stocks firmed the last three days. Chartists should...
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Charts of Interest: AKAM, HAS, ISRG, SNDK, SYMC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AKAM Forms Bullish Flag.
SYMC Falls to Support on High Volume.
Plus HAS, ISRG, SNDK
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves...
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IWM, MDY AND QQQ CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHT RANGES -- MARKETS TURNED RISK AVERSE IN MID SEPTEMBER -- TREASURY YIELDS, EURO AND STOCKS RISE AND FALL TOGETHER -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD CONSOLIDATES BELOW SUPPORT BREAK -- EURO ETF STALLS JUST ABOVE SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
IWM, MDY AND QQQ CONSOLIDATE WITH TIGHT RANGES... Link for todays video. After a sharp decline last week, several of the major index ETFs consolidated with trading ranges the last six days. I am going to look at the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY)...
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Apple Forms Doji at 50-day SMA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After hitting a new high above 700 in mid September, Apple (AAPL) gapped down and declined to around 660. Three items mark support in this area. The early September low, the 38.2% retracement and the rising 50-day moving average. With a doji signaling indecision and the Stochastic Oscillator turning...
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Airlines Get a Lift - SPY Remains with Bear Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Strange, and indecisive days, continued as the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) edged lower and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) edged higher. Stocks were about as mixed as can be on Tuesday. Six of the nine sectors were up, but the biggest gain was just .52% from the...
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INVESTORS FAVOR BONDS OVER STOCKS DURING 2012 -- CORPORATE BONDS AND TIPS ARE DOING BETTER THAN TREASURIES -- INVESTORS FAVOR CORPORATE BONDS WHEN STOCKS ARE RISING -- QUANTITATIVE EASING HAS ALTERED BOND-STOCK RELATIONSHIP
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
INVESTORS STILL PREFER BONDS OVER STOCKS... Despite the fact that U.S. stocks have done much better than bonds during 2012, investors still prefer bonds. Mutual fund money flows show that investors have pulled money out of stocks funds and put money into bond funds. That may seem strange considering...
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Semis Continue to Lag - IWM Forms Rising Wedge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Monday was a strange day indeed. Stocks were truly mixed with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) advancing around 1/2% and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) declining the same amount. It is definitely a strange day when two relatively broad indices move in opposite directions. There were...
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Charts: BIDU, CHKP, FAST, LXK, MAT, PCP, SWY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
BIDU Forms Bearish Wedge.
CHKP Shows Relative Weakness as Downside Volume Increases.
Plus FAST, LXK, MAT, PCP, SWY
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to...
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Agribusiness ETF Surges and Breaks Flag Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Agribusiness ETF (MOO) surged over the last three days and broke falling flag resistance. The flag breakout is bullish as long as it holds. Broken resistance and the June trend line mark support at 50.50. The corn and wheat funds are shown in the indicator window for reference....
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CORN SURGES OFF SHALLOW RETRACEMENT -- WHEAT SURGES WITHIN CONSOLIDATION -- COFFEE PERKS UP AND CHALLENGES TREND LINE -- SUGAR BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- THE BEST EUROPEAN INDICATOR EVER -- FXE HITS RESISTANCE NEAR BROKEN SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CORN SURGES OFF SHALLOW RETRACEMENT... Link for todays video. Corn dominated the summer news as the drought of the century grabbed lots of headlines. These headlines have largely faded, but the results of the drought may still linger. Chart 1 shows the Corn Fund (CORN) surging from mid June to...
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Strength in Dollar and Treasuries Weighs on Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Strength in the Dollar and US Treasuries remains a negative for the stock market. Even though these uptrends are still relatively short, continued strength in the Dollar and Treasuries would weigh further on stocks. The chart below shows five intermarket securities with a black dotted line on 14-Sep. This date...
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Mind the Gap on Cisco
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a corrective decline the last few weeks, Cisco (CSCO) firmed on Wednesday with a small hammer and then surged above the wedge trend line with a gap on Friday. The gap-breakout is bullish until proven otherwise with a decline back below 18.25
Click this image for a live...
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FIVE BIG STOCKS THAT ARE UNDERPERFORMING THIS MONTH -- BROKEN RESISTANCE MARKS FIRST SUPPORT FOR SPY -- QQQ UNDERPERFORMS IN SEPTEMBER -- RETAIL SPDRS STARTS TO UNDERPERFORM -- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE FORMS BEARISH DIVERGENCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FIVE BIG STOCKS THAT ARE UNDERPERFORMING THIS MONTH... Link for todays video. While there is no denying the long-term uptrend, chartists should keep in mind that stocks are up substantially since early June and ripe for some sort of corrective period. A correction can involve a pullback or a consolidation....
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My "Perfect" World
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Trading the stock market is not the blood sport that many in the press portray it to be. That sentiment is just part and parcel of Wall Street’s sophisticated disinformation machine which preaches a familiar old sermon to individual investors. The market pitch goes something like this: “the market...
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Evidence Remains Positive after Pullback in Stock Market
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the indicator summary, but the market is looking a bit tired and perhaps ripe for a correction or consolidation period. The Nasdaq AD Volume Line did not come close to its spring high and the NYSE AD Volume Line hit resistance from its spring high....
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