Judging from the reaction, it appears that the stock market is quite happy with a third round of quantitative easing. The major index ETFs surged with the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) gaining around 1.5%. All sectors were up with the Finance SPDR... READ MORE
DOLLAR PLUNGE GIVES BIG BOOST TO COMMODITIES... The Fed announced that it will purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities which adds to its holdings of long-term securities and ushers in another round of quantitative easing (QE3). The markets have all reacted in predictable fashion. The dollar and... READ MORE
After a big surge above 33, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) peaked in mid August and declined back to support in the 32.50 area. Support here stems form broken resistance, the rising 200-day SMA and the rising 50-day SMA. A successful test and break above 33 would be... READ MORE
Stocks meandered again on Wednesday and then closed with small gains. All of the major index ETFs were up with the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) leading the way (up a mere .52%). Six of the nine sectors were higher with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Technology SPDR... READ MORE
ADBE Hits Resistance in Gap Zone. LUV Forms Triangle after Surge. Plus GRMN, QCOM, SKUL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves... READ MORE
S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF BREAKS MARCH HIGHS... Link for todays video. Even though stocks may be short-term overbought after sharp advances this month, the bulls maintain their overall edge as many key ETF trade at or new 52-week highs. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500... READ MORE
The chart in the main window shows December Coffee Futures ($KCZ12) finding support above the June low and surging above the late August high. The indicator window shows the Coffee ETN (JO) with a similar pattern. These breakouts are bullish as long they hold. A move back below the breakout... READ MORE
Stocks meandered around in positive territory on Monday and ended the day with small gains. A little indecision is understandable given the recent gains and the news flow over the next few days. Key happenings include the German constiutional court ruling and the Apple event today, the FOMC policy statement... READ MORE
Stocks moved lower on Monday as traders booked some profits from last week's rally. The Nasdaq 100 ETF led the way lower as Apple's big event approaches. Apple investors appear to be getting cold feet as the stock fell over 2% on Monday. The Russell 2000... READ MORE
BOOM forms large descending triangle. KLAC gaps and forms bear flag. Plus BRCM, CSX, DUK, MCHP, MDR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SECTORS HIT NEW HIGHS... Link for todays video. Chartists can debate the sustainability of the current rally, but there is no debating the underlying strength in two key sectors. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) both recorded new 52-week highs last week.... READ MORE
Stocks extended their gains on Friday and the S&P 500 finished with its biggest weekly gain since early July. This key benchmark index cleared its spring highs and closed at a 52-week high on Friday. Five of the nine sector SPDRs were up on Friday. The technology sector... READ MORE
The P&F chart below shows the Dow Industrials using 30 points per box and a three box reversal method. With the August dip and September surge, the Dow is challenging the prior highs and tracing out a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. A break above these highs opens the... READ MORE
The coal group has been one of the worse performers this year, but coal stocks moved sharply higher the last two days. Arch Coal (ACI) is showing some signs of life with a falling wedge breakout on three days of good volume. The July-August highs mark the next resistance zone... READ MORE
If you don’t believe in yourself as an investor and have absolute faith in your methodology, trading the markets will be like trying to nail Jello to the wall. We use to joke that my high school buddy, Brian Maxwell, was a force of nature – so much so that... READ MORE
SURGE IN SHANGHAI COMPOSITE LIFTS MATERIALS SECTOR... Link for todays video. Thursdays rally started in Europe, continued in the US and extended to Asia on Friday. In particular, the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) surged over 3% with its biggest one-day move since January. Chart 1 shows the index moving above the... READ MORE
With a big surge on Thursday, stocks broke out of their funk and the indicator summary improved a notch. Techs continue to lead the market overall. The Nasdaq AD Line broke triangle resistance, Nasdaq Net New Highs surged to their highest levels since early July and the Technology SPDR (XLK)... READ MORE
A mixed up Wall Street turned into a raving bull as stocks surged ahead of today's employment report. Rumor has it that Super Mario, Draghi, not Gabelli, inspired the bulls. It kind of makes the employment report an after thought. Consensus calls for non-farm payrolls to add 125,... READ MORE
The technology sector is lighting up the market carpet with a sea of green. Notice that memory makers Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) are leading the charge. Both gapped higher on their price charts. Hard-disk maker Seagate (STX) is the only loser in this group. Click this image for a... READ MORE
EUROPEAN STOCKS SURGE ... The market's got what they wanted from the ECB president this morning. Mario Draghi announced an aggressive bond buying program that has given a huge boost to European stocks and other "risk on" assets. Chart 1 shows the Europe 350 iShars (IEV) surging... READ MORE
It was another mixed day on Wall Street as stocks meandered on either side of unchanged. The major index ETFs were mixed as well with the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) edging higher, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR... READ MORE
BCR Breaks Consolidation Resistance with Good Volume. XRX Forms Pennant Near Key Retracement. Plus ACN, ANF, BG, HSP This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
Ford (F) came across the bullish MACD scan as the MACD line moved above its signal line (9-day EMA of MACD). On the price chart, F formed a falling wedge at the end of August and broke wedge resistance with a surge the last three days. The late August low... READ MORE
FEDEX AND UPS WEIGH ON DOW TRANSPORTS ... Link for todays video. FedEx (FDX) is weighing on the Dow Transports after the company lowered guidance for the first quarter. Expectations were already low and FedEx just made them even lower. Unsurprisingly, the company sited weakness in the global economy. Chart 1... READ MORE
Economic reports triggered some early selling pressure, but stocks managed to rebound with small-caps leading the charge. The ISM Manufacturing Index showed weakness as the key indicator dipped below 50 (49.6). Anything below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This was further exasperated by weakness in construction... READ MORE
The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is under pressure today after a weak manufacturing report. The chart below shows XLI falling to a support zone marked by broken resistance and the June trend line. This sets up an important test because the Aroon down crossed above Aroon green and hit +100 for... READ MORE
The major index ETFs surged the first two weeks of August and then consolidated the last two weeks. With the medium-term trends clearly up, the odds favor a bullish resolution to these consolidations. However, we could see some serious volatility in the coming weeks as the news flow surges in... READ MORE
AA Firms at 61.80% Retracement. EA Surges off Broken Resistance with Big Volume. Plus AMTD, APC, DHR, MSFT, UNM This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Last month we added a feature that many of you have been asking for for a long time - custom technical alerts! Today I want to spend some time showing you how they work and one of the best ways they can be used to help you... READ MORE
My Tuesday message expressed the view that if a stock correction were to start, this would be a logical spot for that to happen. That's because several market indexes are testing spring highs, which is a normal spot for chartwatchers to take some profits. I also warned that... READ MORE
Before I take a look at the bigger picture, there were a couple rather bullish signs on the one year chart for gold the past few weeks. Take a look: After testing descending triangle support (you'll see that in the 5 year chart below) in mid-May, gold began... READ MORE
The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) weekly poll* shows that they are 83% long. This qualifies as an extreme level of optimism, and should cause concern. On the following chart we can see that readings above 80% are not a magic number or an automatic sell signal; however,... READ MORE
Even though the S&P 1500 Index ($EIS) is trading near its spring highs and within a few percent of a 52-week high, Net New Highs have shown less strength since early July and divergences have formed. Keep in mind that less strength is not the same as weakness.... READ MORE
I’m a big fan of pithy quotes. When I teach my college class “Tensile Trading”, I use quotes extensively to help illustrate each of the 10 stages of successful investing. This week, I thought I’d have a guest blogger share his wisdom with respect to each of my... READ MORE
SPY HOLDS GAINS AND EXTENDS CONSOLIDATION ... Link for todays video. Boy, it is just like a Fed day. Wait, it is a Fed day. Fed Chairman Bernanke finally gave his speech at Jackson Hole and the markets bounced like the silver ball in a pinball machine. The S&P... READ MORE
The Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) rebounded in July and then hit resistance near the zero line in July-August. The indicator is still moving higher because it is above its 10-day EMA. A break below this EMA would signal a downturn and be bearish for Nasdaq breadth. Click this image for... READ MORE
The top pickers are circling the wagons as we roll into September, October, the election, the fiscal cliff, a Euro crisis and a Chinese slow down. Even though this is enough to push one to the sidelines, keep in mind that most of this is probably already priced into the... READ MORE
Stocks pulled back as traders moved aside ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole this morning. Truth be told, I think the three economic reports are more important that his speech, which will probably walk a fine line and repeat the last FOMC policy statement. Factory... READ MORE
The chart below shows Monsanto (MON) with black candlesticks and the Corn ETF ($CORN) as a red dashed line. Notice how these two fell together in April and early May, and then surged together in June and July. The Correlation Coefficient confirms this relationship with a positive reading since mid... READ MORE
ON BALANCE VOLUME LINE NOT KEEPING PACE WITH STOCK RALLY... My Tuesday message expressed the view that if a stock correction were to start, this would be a logical spot for that to happen. That's because several market indexes are testing spring highs, which is a normal spot... READ MORE