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SPY REVERSES COURSE AFTER DOJI -- AD VOLUME LINES REVERSE NEAR BROKEN SUPPORT -- OFFENSIVE SECTORS LAGGING ON ONE AND THREE MONTH TIMEFRAMES -- PRICE RELATIVES BREAK DOWN FOR XLF AND XLY -- 7-10 YEAR T-BOND ETF NEARS HIGH ON FLIGHT TO SAFETY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY REVERSES COURSE AFTER LONG WHITE CANDLE AND DOJI... Link for todays video. After moving higher four of the last five days, stocks are taking a hit today as concerns in Europe bubble up. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moving higher since early June and...
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Dow Industrials SPDR Forms a Doji near Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a four day surge that carried the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) above 129, the ETF formed a doji to signal indecision on Thursday. Also notice that DIA formed indecisive candlesticks at the prior two peaks. A gap down and long black candlestick on Friday would form a rare evening...
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Small-caps Start Underperforming as AD Volume Lines Turn Lower
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The indicator summary remains positive overall, but I downgraded the small-cap/large-cap indicator because small-caps are seriously underperforming the last two weeks. Even though the indicators remain net positive, I remain concerned because some key indicators are still bearish. The AD Volume Lines are bearish overall and the offensive sectors...
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SPY Forms Doji as XLF and IWM Underperform
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Technology stocks led the market again on Thursday, but the finance sector weakened again and small-caps were also down on the day. Relative weakness in these two is not a good sign. At best, it points to a divided market that will trade sideways. At worst, it points to underlying...
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Finance SPDR Looks A Little Sick as the Price Relative Breaks Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Finance SPDR (XLF) led the market higher from early June to mid July, but stalled the last four days and started showing relative weakness. The indicator window shows the price relative (XLF:SPY ratio). Notice how this indicator broke support from the early July low and XLF is now...
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BUYING OF AUSSIE DOLLAR SHOWS MORE GLOBAL OPTIMISM -- AUSTRALIAN ISHARES ALSO HELP LEAD GLOBAL STOCK BOUNCE -- AUSSIE MARKETS ARE CLOSELY LINKED TO CHINA AND COMMODITY PRICES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RALLIES... Currency trends often us something about the mood of global traders, and which way they're starting to lean. In the ongoing battle between "risk-on" and "risk-off" trades, one of the markets worth keeping an eye on is the Australian Dollar. For...
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Charts: BDX, BX, CNX, MCD, MCO, MDT, SWKS, UNH, ZION
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
SWKS Bounces off Support with Good Volume.
UNH Firms at Support Zone.
Plus BDX, BX, CNX, MCD, MCO, MDT, ZION
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...
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IWM and XLY are Lagging, but SPY Extends Uptrend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The bulls simply refuse to buckle. Economic reports have been below expectations for months, earnings are less than stellar and the Fed stands ready to act. Perhaps the stock market is pricing in quantitative easing for August or September. Even though stocks advanced, the advance was not even and did...
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Technology Sector Lights up the Sector Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved higher with the technology sector leading the charge on Wednesday. The Sector Carpet shows lots of green in this key sector. Also notice that four of the top five performers come from technology. The finance sector was the weakest with three of the five biggest losers coming from...
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BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER AS QQQ HOLDS UPTREND -- SEMICONDUCTORS AND NETWORKING STOCKS LEAD TECHS -- TXN AND INTC LEAD SEMIS -- CSCO AND QCOM POWER NETWORKERS -- FINANCE SECTOR AND REGIONAL BANKS LAG
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BIG TECHS LEAD MARKET HIGHER AS QQQ HOLDS UPTREND... Link for todays video. Stocks moved higher on Wednesday with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) leading the way. Chart 1 shows QQQ surging over 1% with a move above 64. With the four day advance, QQQ formed a higher low to...
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QQQ Forms Bearish Wedge and Underperforms
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were edgy on Tuesday as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified before congress. After an initial pop on the open, the major index ETFs dipped lower for around 40 minutes and then surged back into positive territory in the early afternoon. Tuesday's dip now provides a short-term support...
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ADD MONSANTO TO LIST OF AG STOCKS BENEFITING FROM RISING GRAINS -- SPRINT NEXTEL LEADS TELECOM ISHARES HIGHER -- PLUNGE IN TRUCKING STOCKS SHOWS THAT DOW THEORY IS ALIVE AND WELL
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
MOSAIC REACHES FOUR-MONTH HIGH... A recent message (July 5) showed that rising grain prices owing to a midwest drought were driving up the price of fertilzier stocks. One of the stocks featured was Mosaic which is today's biggest gainer in the materials sector. Chart 1 shows Mosaic (MOS)...
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SPY and GLD Consolidate above their Breakouts
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Selling pressure hit the stock market after a weak retail sales report, but the major index ETFs managed to firm and finish with small losses. With another key economic report coming in below expectations, investors turned their attention to the prospects of more quantitative easing. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testifies...
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Charts: AES, ARO, ATVI, COV, DNR, GS, IACI, INTU, MRO
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AES Extends Flag Consolidation.
ATVI Surges and then Forms Bull Flag.
COV Breaks Wedge Trend Line.
Plus ARO, DNR, GS, IACI, INTU, MRO
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...
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Pfizer and Merck Lead Dow with New 52-week Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows four of the thirty CandleGlance charts for the Dow Industrials. Notice that big pharma is leading the way as Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) surge to new highs. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) is also hitting a new high today.
Click this image for a live chart...
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An Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Develops for Halliburton
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With oil bouncing over the last few weeks, Halliburton is tracing out a little head-and-shoulders bottom. Despite a potentially bullish pattern, the stock remains short of the breakout needed to confirm a reversal. Also note that a volume expansion is needed to confirm any breakout.
Click this image for a...
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TREASURIES SURGE AFTER RETAIL SALES REPORT -- 5-YR TREASURY YIELD HITS NEW LOW -- SPY HOLDS BOUNCE TO ESTABLISH KEY SUPPORT -- S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF CONTINUES TO UNDERPERFORM -- HONG KONG AND AUSTRALIAN INDICES BREAK DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURIES SURGE AFTER RETAIL SALES REPORT... Link for todays video. The commerce department reported that June retail sales dropped .5%, which was the third consecutive monthly decline. With analysts expecting a small increase, this was yet another key economic report that came in below expectations. A decline in retail sales...
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SPY Breaks Channel Resistance - GLD Breaks Wedge Trendline
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The risk-on trade took hold on Friday with stocks, oil and gold surging. All major index ETFs were up over 1%. Eight of the nine sector SPDRs were up over 1% with the Finance SPDR (XLF) leading the charge (+2.76%). JP Morgan was the big story of the day...
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RESIDENTIAL REITS HELP LEAD GROUP TO NEW HIGHS -- APARMENT REIT LEADERS INCLUDE AVALONBAY, CAMDEN PROPERTY, AND EQUITABLE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RESIDENTIAL REITS LEAD GROUP HIGHER... My Thursday message showed the Vanguard REIT VIPERS (VNQ) in the process of challenging its yearly high. Chart 1 shows the VNQ hitting a new record high on Friday. The rising relative strength ratio (above chart) show that REITS have been outperforming the S&...
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The News Sausage And Pulling The Trigger
by Gatis Roze,
Author, "Tensile Trading"
Make no mistake about it: these are internet days and news circles the globe at the speed of light. Couple that with the fact that Wall Street is the world’s most sophisticated disinformation machine ever devised and you’ll appreciate why I believe technical analysis is an individual investor’...
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A BIG SUPPORT TEST AT HAND FOR QQQ AND DIA -- MAKE-OR-BREAK TIME FOR THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR -- USO BREAKS PENNANT RESISTANCE -- XLE AND XES BREAK FLAG TREND LINES -- GOLD GETS ANOTHER BOUNCE OFF SUPPORT -- JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF TEST MAY LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A BIG SUPPORT TEST AT HAND FOR QQQ AND DIA... Link for todays video. A disparity has opened up among the major index ETFs. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged at the end of June and remains well above its late June low. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and Dow...
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QQQ Lags the other Major index ETFs - IWM Leads
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market bottomed on June 4th and moved higher the last 5-6 weeks. All major index ETFs are up since June 4th, but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) sports the smallest gain. The PerfChart below shows QQQ up 2.8% and the rest up 4% or more. Note that...
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AD Volume Lines Fail at Broken Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Despite a decline this week, the indicator summary remains unchanged and net positive. Even so, there are some glaring signs of weakness within the market. The AD Volume Lines failed at broken support and remain bearish overall. The Bullish Percent Indices for the technology and industrials sectors are below 50%...
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SPY Bounces off Retracement - USO Firms Near Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks started the day with a sharp move lower, but quickly firmed and worked their way higher the rest of the day. The major index ETFs closed with relatively small losses. The sectors were mixed with five down and three up as money moved to relative safety. Note that the...
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Defensive Sectors Keeping the S&P 500 Positive
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector PerfChart shows the percentage change for the S&P 500 and the nine sector SPDRs over the past month (22 trading days). Note that the S&P 500 is up, but the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), Technology SPDR (XLK) and Industrials SPDR (XLI) are down. In...
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SEMICONDUCTORS LEAD TECHS LOWER -- INDIVIDUAL CHIP LOSERS INCLUDE INTEL, TXN, AND ALTERA -- BIG PHARMA CONTINUES TO RALLY -- MERCK IS HEALTHCARE LEADER -- TECH-DOMINATED NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET LOWER AND HEADS TOWARD 200-DAY LINE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
REITS ARE BIG DIVIDEND PAYERS ... Last Tuesday's message focused on dividend paying stock groups that usually do better in a climate of falling bond yields and an uncertain stock market. Those groups included staples, healthcare, telecom, and utilities. Don't forget about Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS)...
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SPY and IWM Hit Key Retracements
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Look out below! Asian stocks are getting hammered with the Nikkei down around 1.5% and the Hang Seng down around 2%. European stocks are down modestly. US stocks were weak yesterday and even dipped after the Fed minutes, but another one of those mysterious buying surges pushed stocks off...
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Charts of Interest: AES, AMZN, HBAN, HD, ILMN, PBCT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AES Forms Bull Flag after Breakout.
AMZN Breaks Channel Support.
HD Forms Small Wedge after Gap Down.
Plus HBAN, ILMN, PBCT
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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Sector Summary Shows the Clothing & Accessories Index Leading the Consumer Discretionary Sector Lower
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is one of the weakest sectors on Wednesday. Drilling down into the sector reveals weakness in apparel stocks. True Religion (TRLG) is down over 5%, while Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) and Warnaco (WRC) are down around 4%.
Click this image for a live chart...
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SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AFTER FED MINUTES -- TECHNOLOGY SECTOR WEIGHS ON MARKET -- IBM, INTEL AND MICROSOFT LEAD LOWER -- INDUSTRIALS SPDR TESTS WEDGE TRENDLINE -- AIRLINE INDEX GETS A LIFT -- DELTA, JETBLUE AND SOUTHWEST LEAD AIRLINES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD STOCKS LOWER AFTER FED MINUTES... Link for todays video. Stocks treaded water most of the day and then got hit in the afternoon when the Fed minutes were released. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) falling below 79 and entering last weeks gap zone. A positive...
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USO Breaks Flag Support - GLD Fails to Hold Gains
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks started the day strong, but selling pressure soon took over and the major index ETFs closed lower. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) led the decline with a 1.12% loss, but the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was not far behind with a .87% loss....
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DIA Fails in Gap Zone as Long Black Candlestick Forms
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) formed a harami last week and then gapped down on Friday. This gap below 128 held as the ETF opened near 128 and then closed below 127 on Tuesday. Short-term, the bulls need to fill this gap. A break below the rising wedge trendline would...
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SPY Gaps Down and Stays Down - XLV Shows Relative Strength
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks edged lower on Monday with the major index ETFs finishing slightly lower. Eight of the nine sectors were lower with the Energy SPDR (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) leading the decline. Both were down around .5%. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) was the lone gainer as big pharma stocks...
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Charts: AIG, APD, CAH, CRM, DDS, MAT, MYL, XRAY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AIG Hits Resistance at Key Retracement.
APD Forms Pennant Near Resistance.
MYL Surges after ACA Ruling.
Plus CAH, CRM, DDS, MAT, XRAY
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...
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TRY THE DARK SIDE FOR A CHANGE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
I'm pleased to announce that we have just added 4 new color schemes to our charting workbench. These schemes are specifically designed for people that like light colored charts on black backgrounds. Our older "Night" color scheme is one of our more popular...
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CRUDE OIL SIGNALS POTENTIAL BOTTOM
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Reasonably bullish signs have emerged, the latest being that crude oil prices (finally!) found support at 2 year lows near $76-$77 per barrel. Not only was price support tested, but slowing momentum was obvious in the form of a long-term positive divergence. It's always nice to see...
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GOLD A "CAGED" ANIMAL
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
Gold prices are trapped we are afraid; and they are trapped between the $1584 and $1646 levels - of which the lower boundary is the 20-month moving average; while the upper boundary is the 30-week moving average. We expect Gold prices shall break higher given the bullish consolidation forming; and...
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SENTIMENT CLIMAX
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
The Wall Street Sentiment Survey* is unique in that the poll is taken on Friday after the market closes, and it asks participants for their forecast for the following week. This differs from other polls that take opinions through the week during periods when the market is active and changing....
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CORN LEADS AG MARKETS HIGHER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Agricultural commodities have been on a tear over the last month. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Agricultural Fund (DBA) in a parabolic rise since mid-June. Most of that surge is coming from grain markets as the result of drought conditions in the midwest. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices have...
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Networking and Semiconductor ETFs Fail at June Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Relative weakness in the **Networking iShares (IGN)** and the **Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH)** weighed on the technology sector this week. The chart below shows SMH breaking down in May and then bouncing back to broken support in mid June. While SPY moved above its mid June high, SMH did...
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