Let the roller coaster ride begin! Stocks started the day weak with the major index ETFs falling over 1% in the first two hours of trading. After firming for a few hours, stocks moved sharply higher in afternoon trading. Most of the major index ETFs closed with small gains. The... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) gave back last week's gain with a sharp decline the last three days and is on the verge of breaking support. The next support zone resides in the 135-138 area. Gold remains hostage to the falling Euro as the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) fell... READ MORE
SETTING SUMMER TARGETS FOR THE DOW AND NASDAQ ... Link for todays video. As outlined in market messages since mid May, the major stock indices have broken key support levels and several breadth indicators have turned bearish. The bulk of the evidence clearly shifted from bullish to bearish over the last... READ MORE
After a one day oversold bounce, stocks stalled on Tuesday as indecisive candlesticks formed on many charts. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the Russell Microcap Fund (IWC) closed lower and showed relative weakness. The S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY), however, eked out a small gain and showed... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE... Selling in foreign currencies is giving a continuing boost to the U.S. Dollar. Chart 1 shows the Power Shares Dollar Index Bullish Fund (DBC) climbing to the highest level in four months. The UUP recently cleared its mid-March intra-day peak at 22.47. The... READ MORE
A review of the CandleGlance charts for the thirty Dow stocks shows only five components trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages: AT&T, Disney, Pfizer, Wal-mart and Verizon. Four of these five can be considered defensive stocks that hold up well during times of uncertainty. Click this... READ MORE
Stocks rebounded on Monday with mid-caps leading the charge and the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) surging 3.82% on the day. All sectors were higher with materials, technology, energy and industrials gaining over 2%. Many of the hardest hit sectors and industry groups saw the biggest gains... READ MORE
CME Surges off Key Retracement. ISIL Forms Pennant after High Volume Surge. LUV Breaks Flag Resistance on Big Volume. Plus CTXS, HOTT, IMN, SHLD This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
STEEL, COAL, OIL SERVICES AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE ... Link for todays video. The bulls found their footing on Monday as stocks bounced from oversold levels. The hardest hit groups bounced the most as the Networking iShares (IGN), Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL), Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR... READ MORE
Apple suffered its biggest six week decline since 2008, but signs of firmness emerged as the stock formed a spinning top at the end of last week. Spinning tops represent indecision that can sometimes foreshadow a reversal. Also note that this candlestick formed with high volume. A move above Thursday&... READ MORE
Let the jawboning begin! The G8 came out with a very bold (not) statement over the weekend. In short, they urged Greece to stay in the Euro and said growth issues should be considered. Big deal. There is an EU summit scheduled for Wednesday and we can expect more grandiose... READ MORE
What really worries me about the direction of stocks is the possibility that foreign stock indexes could be tracing out two-year "head and shoulder" tops. That's true of both developed and emerging markets. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares tracing out a textbook "H&S&... READ MORE
An important tops looks to be in place in the Dow Industrials ($INDU) by month's end if the current pattern holds true to form. Quite simply, the $INDU is forming a bearish wedge pattern, of which rising trendline support looks to be violated in the months ahead. This... READ MORE
The long-term negative divergences that printed in February and March provided us clues that we'd at least see some near-term trepidation and possibly something much worse. Well, the "much worse" has arrived. There is no technical sign - bullish or bearish - that ever provides us... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Did you follow the Facebook mania yesterday? Even if you didn't have a stake in the stock, it was still fascinating to watch the chart over the course of the day as the underwriters had to step in to prop it up. I've... READ MORE
With big declines this past week, the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports both broke support levels and forged lower lows. Confirmed lower lows amount to a Dow Theory sell signal. The first chart shows the Dow Industrials forming a double top and breaking double top support with a decline below... READ MORE
S&P 500 NEARS TEST OF 200-DAY AVERAGE... The slide in stocks continued this week to the point that some key support levels are about to be tested. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 bearing down on its October high (1292) and its 200-day moving average (red... READ MORE
The current correction is creating very oversold conditions on intermediate-term indicators, like the ITBM (breadth) and ITVM (volume). While oversold indicators often signal final price lows for a correction, extremely oversold readings are a sign that the price low for the correction probably won't arrive until weeks after... READ MORE
I’m sitting on the lanai of a condo here at the Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii watching the sun peek above the ocean horizon, and I’m digging into the question of why a disproportionate number of my winning trades have occurred on these vacations. My... READ MORE
The 30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX) broke down with a sharp decline the last few weeks. This puts the yield near its 2011 lows and within striking distance of its 2008 lows, scene of the last crisis and flight to safety. Notice that treasury yields and the S&P 500... READ MORE
STOCK MARKET BULLS KNOCKED DOWN WITH A BIG BEAR PUNCH... Link for todays video. The decline in stocks accelerated this week with the major index ETFs and some key sector SPDRs breaking clear support levels. This could be the beginning of the end, or it could simply be the middle... READ MORE
With a slew of downgrades, the indicator summary moved to -6 and decidedly negative for the first time since December. The bull run was long (5+ months), but the evidence has clearly shifted as selling pressure accelerated this week. Net New Highs for the NYSE turned negative and hit their... READ MORE
The decline in stocks accelerated on Thursday with QQQ and IMW falling over 2% and SPY loosing around 1.5%. This could be the beginning of the end, or it could simply be the middle of a free fall (see August 2011). Stocks are simply in falling knife mode. Of... READ MORE
The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (TLT) have been negatively this month. Notice how TLT advanced from 116 to 123.5 and GLD declined from 161 to 150 the prior 11 days. This negative correlation changed today as both surged higher. TLT is up over 1%... READ MORE
There it is again. Stocks opened with a little bounce and then worked their way lower the rest of the day. Every intraday bounce since May 11th has led to renewed selling pressure and lower lows. Buying pressure is weak on the bounce and none-existent after the bounce. The major... READ MORE
AMZN Stalls after Big Gap. FL Forms Pennant after High Volume Support Break. WSM Breaks Flag Support after Big Bull Trap. Plus ADP, AFFX, FL, LUV, ROK This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any... READ MORE
May has been nothing but mayhem for the market as all nine sectors moved lower. The PerfChart below shows the percentage change since May 1st. Over the last 11 trading days, the Finance SPDR (XLF), Energy SPDR (XLE) and Basic Materials SPDR (XLB) are leading the market lower. The three... READ MORE
FINANCE SPDR ON THE VERGE OF TREND REVERSAL ... Link for todays video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) broke an important support level last week and is on the verge of breaking another this week. I first marked key support at the February-March lows in the market message on April 18th and... READ MORE
US stocks opened strong on Tuesday, but buyers lost their nerve again and the major index ETFs closed near their lows for the day. Treasuries continued higher as investors sought relatively safety ahead of June elections in Greece. Needless to say, the Dollar soared and the Euro plunged. Commodities plunged... READ MORE
CRB BREAKDOWN HURTS STOCKS ... Last Tueday's message showed the CRB Index in the process of testing its lows formed during the second half of 2011, and warned that commodity weakness was starting to hurt stock values. Since then, the CRB has plunged to the lowest level in 20... READ MORE
After a big decline in April, Google ($GOOG) consolidated the last few weeks and the Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly. This could be called a Bollinger Band squeeze or volatility squeeze. The next directional signal depends on the band break. A move above the upper band would be bullish, while a... READ MORE
The risk-off trade was in full force on Monday: treasuries and the Dollar moved higher as stocks, oil and the Euro moved lower. Stocks opened weak, bounced a little and then closed weak as buyers lost their nerve. The major index ETFs remain in short-term downtrends, but are getting oversold... READ MORE
AAPL Declines to Support on Low Volume. ABC Surges off Support with Big Volume. Plus CAH, CVG, IMN, NKE, XRX This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
DOW BREAKS KEY SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINE... Link for todays video. The risk-off was in full force early Monday. Treasuries and the Dollar moved sharply higher as stocks, gold, the Euro and oil moved sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials breaking below its March-April lows with a sharp... READ MORE
The risk-off trade has been dominant since May and shows no signs of changing this week. The world is openly talking about a Greek exit from the Euro, perhaps within a month. The fear is not so much the Greek exit, but rather the affect it will have on Portugal... READ MORE
In the sports world, parties debate whether a premiere defense defeats a premier offense or whether great hitters beat great pitchers. Successful long-term investors have no such debate. They know that after making sacrifices to accumulate their assets, they build a premier defense first and then they focus on offense... READ MORE
S&P MIDCAP 400 AND S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX BATTLE SUPPORT... Link for todays video. After sharp declines last week, stocks turned mixed this week and several indices are firming near key support levels. I have been writing about support from the March-April lows for a... READ MORE
Stocks were under pressure the last three days, but ATVI bucked the trend with an advance and gap on high volume. This gap off support is bullish as long as it holds. Resistance at 13 marks the next challenge. Click this image for a live chart.... READ MORE
The indicator summary moved to +4 because of two downgrades. Of note, the AD Volume Lines broke support to turn bearish. Despite these breaks, the NYSE AD Line remains in bull mode and the Net New Highs indicators are still considered bullish. We have yet to see enough selling pressure... READ MORE
A disappointing outlook from Cisco (CSCO) weighed on the tech sector Thursday. In particular, the company sighted future concerns on government spending in the US and Europe. A $2 billion derivatives loss from JP Morgan Chase (JPM) is weighing on stock futures early Friday. This loss could expand another $1... READ MORE