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SPY Forms Potential Bull Flag as UUP Forms Bear Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The second shoe dropped for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), but the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held up rather well (surprise, surprise). I heard an interview with Barry Ritholtz talking about the four asset classes: stocks, commodities, bonds and Apple. While Apple sentiment...
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Energy Sector Turns Red on Market Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Sector Market Carpet shows the nine S&P sectors with the energy sector displaying the most red. The average stock is down 2.9% and three of the five biggest losers come from this sector. Defensive sectors held up the best on Thursday with consumer staples, healthcare and...
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STOCKS TOOK OFF IN 1951 AFTER THE FED LET BOND YIELDS RISE -- THEY MAY HAVE TO DO THE SAME AGAIN -- THIRTY YEAR BULL MARKET IN BONDS MAY BE COMING TO AN END -- THAT SHOULD HELP STOCKS -- NASDAQ/BOND RATIO MAY BE BOTTOMING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
FED BOND INTERVENTION DURING 1940S CAPPED STOCK PRICES... I wrote last Thursday why the Fed's current policy of buying longer-dated maturities to keep bond yields from rising may actually be putting a cap on stock prices. I explained that the last time the Fed did that was between...
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SPY Forms Bear Pennant as UUP Bounces off Retracement
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Is the second shoe about to drop? Stocks fell sharply on the open Tuesday and then consolidated since this open. Short-term, and I do mean very short-term, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held the gap down and formed a pennant consolidation on the 60-minute chart. A break below...
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Charts of Interest: AMGN, CAT, HAL, KSS, OIH, MON, SWC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CAT Gaps Down on High Volume.
KSS Stalls after Gap Down.
MON Forms Triangle Consolidation.
Plus AMGN, HAL, OIH, SWC
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...
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TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS -- DOW TRANSPORTS BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- GOLD FIRMS IN KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- AGRICULTURE ETF FORMS PENNANT AFTER SUPPORT BREAK -- CORN ETN FAILS AT RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TRADING GETS AWFULLY QUIET IN SMALL AND MID CAPS... Link for todays video. Trading activity slowed considerably over the last two days as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed two very small candlesticks. Chart 1 shows IWM making a breakout attempt on Monday, but falling back on Tuesday with a...
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Steel ETF Forges Island Reversal with Gap Down $SLX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a gap up, two candlesticks and a gap down, the Steel ETF (SLX) formed an island reversal over the last five days. Notice that this reversal formed near the late February highs and the ETF broke the March trendline with further weakness on Wednesday.
Click this image for a...
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SPY Bounces After Gap as USO Fails to Hold Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were hit with selling pressure on the open, but the major index ETFs worked their way higher the rest of the day. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opened around 140 and worked its way to the 140.60 area by the afternoon. On the 10-minute chart, this...
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Consumer Discretionary SPDR Hits 52-week High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Want to gauge retail spending? Just take a look at the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), which hit a new 52-week high today. There are 80 stocks in this sector and most are dependant on consumer spending to drive revenues (think Disney, Macy's, Amazon, Starbucks, DR Horton). New highs...
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NASDAQ INDEXES REACH 12-YEAR HIGH AND ARE LEADING REST OF MARKET HIGHER -- APPLE IS A HUGE PART OF THE NASDAQ BREAKOUT, BUT NOT ALL OF IT -- OTHER STRONG NASDAQ STOCKS INCLUDE INTEL, QUALCOMM, AND COMCAST
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NASDAQ INDEXES HIT 12 YEAR HIGHS... The plunge in the Nasdaq market during 2000 began the "lost decade" for stocks which have essentially trended sideways since then. The good news is the same Nasdaq market may be leading stocks into a better decade. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq...
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SPY Becomes More Overbought as USO Breaks Wedge Trendline
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The song remains the same (circa 1973). Stocks are overbought, but there are simply no signs of significant selling pressure. Maybe that will change with stock futures down in early trading on turnaround Tuesday. Over the last nine days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 4.98%...
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Charts: AMZN, BIDU, CHH, CHRW, D, QLGC, RDC, WIN
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AMZN Underperforms with Triangle Consolidation.
CHH Stalls Below Late December high.
RDC Forms Harami Cross within Rising Wedge.
Plus BIDU, CHH, CHRW, D, QLGC and WIN
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security...
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Crude Oil Volatility Index Plummets
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Volatility is falling everywhere these days. Notice that the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Crude Oil Volatility Index ($OVX) both moved sharply lower in March. $OVX plunged the last two weeks as Spot Light Crude bounced off the 105 area for the second time this month.
Click this image...
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RUSSELL 2000 MAKES A RUN FOR RESISTANCE -- NET NEW HIGHS CONFIRM MARKET STRENGTH -- CRUDE OIL CHALLENGES FALLING WEDGE RESISTANCE -- HEATING OIL FORMS BULLISH PENNANT -- OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT/SERVICES SPDR TESTS BROKEN RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RUSSELL 2000 MAKES A RUN FOR RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. Small-caps are showing upside leadership in early trading on Monday, which is important because small-caps have been lagging large-caps since early February. A breakout in small-caps and return to relative strength would be positive for stocks in general. Chart...
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USO Challenges Trendline - RSI Hits Supprt Zone for UUP
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks are about as overbought as they have been in a long time. Even so, there are simply no signs of significant or sustained selling pressure. Declines, such as those seen in late January or early March, have been short affairs lasting just a few days. The subsequent rallies proved...
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OFF TO THE RACES WITH PUBLIC CHARTLISTS v2.0
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
The new version of our Public ChartList area is now officially released and ready for your use. The Public ChartList area has been a real "hidden gem" of our website for years where any StockCharts member (with an Extra account) can publish their own chart...
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OVER 800 S.C.A.N. ARTICLES AND COUNTING, "SAME SCALE" PRICE OVERLAY
OVER 800 ARTICLES AND COUNTING! The StockCharts Answer Network (s.c.a.n.) passed another milestone last week with its 800th question getting answered. If you haven't visited it yet, s.c.a.n. is a free user-to-user question-and-answer area where you can get your questions about using...
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GOLD BREAKS 200-DAY LINE - GOLD MINERS TEST SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A couple of weeks ago (February 28) I wrote a positive article on precious metal assets. The entire group has taken a big hit since then. Two contributing factors have been more positive comments from the Fed, which imply little or no more quantitative easing. That pushed U.S. bond...
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S&P 500 RALLY GETTING RISKIER BY THE WEEK
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The S&P 500 rally continues unabated, although it has shown some signs of wear and tear given the less-than-hoped for volume patterns as well as advance/decline patterns. However, it is clear that this type of market condition does not preclude prices from moving higher and forming major...
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COMMON MACD MISCONCEPTIONS
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
In my last article, I featured a weekly NASDAQ chart and pointed out that the MACD was coming up off the centerline and pointing higher. I indicated this was a very bullish signal for the intermediate- to longer-term and supported my belief that equity prices would continue to rise in...
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APPLE ENTERS DANGER PHASE
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
Apple is a great company, and AAPL has been a great stock since early-2009. From that point to the end of 2011 it rose +300% in an orderly, relentless advance. The angle of the rising trend line was conservative and sustainable. Unfortunately, since the beginning of this year AAPL has...
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Materials SPDR Continues to Show Relative Weakness
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While the S&P 500 and Dow moved to new highs last week, the Materials SPDR (XLB) fell short of its February highs and continues to underperform. Also note that the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Consumer Discretional SPDR moved to new 52-week highs last week. Along with the Finance...
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Gold SPDR Firms in Key Retracement Zone
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It has been a tough March for gold, but the Gold SPDR (GLD) may be at support marked by the Fibonacci Retracements Tool. Notice that the decline to 159 retraced 50-61.80% of the prior advance and the ETF firmed just above 160 the last two days. Watch for a...
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TOTAL EXCHANGE VOLUME AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE -- LOW VOLUME BREAKOUTS ARE NOT ALWAYS DOOMED -- ETF VOLUME CAN BE SUSPECT -- SMH AND OIH VOLUME CHANGED AFTER MANAGER SWITCH -- VOLUME MAY BE BEST SUITED FOR INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TOTAL EXCHANGE VOLUME AINT WHAT IT USED TO BE... Link for todays video. Volume can be important, but chartists should remember that it is just an indicator that should be considered secondary to price action. First, note that exchange volume aint what it used to be. Back in the day,...
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Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines Hit New 52-week Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the indicator summary. Nine indicators were bullish at the start of the week and nine remain bullish. The AD Volume Lines surged to new highs with a strong move the last seven days. Net New Highs also expanded on both the NYSE and Nasdaq as...
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SPY Exceeds Channel Trendline - USO Forms Falling Wedge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is not much change overall. Stocks remain in strong uptrends with no signs of selling pressure. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged above the upper trendline of a rising channel. There are two trends at work on this 60-minute chart. First, the rising channel defines an uptrend...
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Dow Transports Play Catch Up with Big Move
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Dow Transports has been lagging the Dow Industrials for several weeks now, but is making a catch up bid with a falling flag breakout the last few days. After a breakout on Monday, the Average fell back sharply on Tuesday with a close below 5200. This decline was wiped...
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PRECIOUS METAL HAVE TAKEN A HIT OVER LAST TWO WEEKS -- RISING RATES ARE PART OF THE REASON WHY -- WHY CURRENT FED POLICY OF KEEPING RATES SO LOW MAY BE HOLDING THE STOCK MARKET BACK
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GOLD BREAKS 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS TEST SUPPORT... A couple of weeks ago (February 28) I wrote a positive article on precious metal assets. The entire group has taken a big hit since then. Two contributing factors have been more positive comments from the Fed, which imply little or...
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Treasuries and Gold Fall off a Cliff as Stocks Hold Gains
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Treasuries are falling off a cliff, commodities are softening, gold is plunging, the Dollar is strengthening and stocks remain the best game in town. The recent decline in treasuries suggests that the economy will continue to expand and the labor market will continue to improve. Money moving out of treasuries...
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Charts of Interest: ALK, JOYG, LEAP, MOS, SNDK, TTWO
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ALK Consolidates after Break Down.
MOS Forms Bear Flag on Low Volume.
SNDK Falls Back below Tuesday's Low.
Plus JOYG, LEAP, TTWO.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF...
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Fifth Third Bancorp Joins the New High List with Big Volume
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Looking for a list of market leaders? Simply go to the pre-defined scans page for a list of stocks hitting new 52-week highs. Over 500 stocks made the list on Tuesday and over 400 made the list today. The chart below shows Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) breaking consolidation resistance and...
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DOW BECOMES MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE JULY 2011 -- DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO LAG DOW INDUSTRIALS -- AIRLINES AND RAILROADS WEIGH ON TRANSPORTS -- TRUCKING INDEX BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW BECOMES MOST OVERBOUGHT SINCE JULY 2011... Link for todays video. Led by the finance sector, the Dow Industrials surged above 13000 to record another new 52-week high this year. New 52-week highs occur in uptrends, not downtrends. Moreover, this new 52-week high is especially impressive because Apple is not...
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SPY Surges above Channel Trendline as TLT Breaks Down
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks caught a big bullish wind in the final hour and surged with financials leading the charge. Yesterday's surge certainly has the markings of a blow-off top, which is the opposite of a selling climax. However, picking a top in this environment is very dangerous. On the 60-minute...
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CandleGlance Charts Show Strength in Home Construction Stocks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Chartists can access CandleGlance charts for dozens of industry groups on the FreeCharts page. The screen shot below shows some charts from the Home Construction industry group on the left and the industry group drop-down menu from the Free Charts page. Talk about relative strength. Several stocks in this group...
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STOCK INDEXES REACH MULTI-YEAR HIGHS AS BOND PRICES SELL OFF -- RISING RATES BOOST DOLLAR -- STOCK/BOND RATIO HAS TURNED UP -- FINANCIALS ARE SHOWING UPSIDE LEADERSHIP -- BANK LEADERS ARE CITIGROUP AND JP MORGAN CHASE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
S&P 500 HITS NEW 52-WEEK HIGH ... The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 trading over 1380 for the first time since 2008. The S&P 500 would now have to drop back below last week's reaction low at 1340 to...
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SPY and QQQ Stall Near late February Highs
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow edging higher and the Russell 2000 edging lower. Sector action was also mixed with technology gaining a fraction and the consumer discretionary sector finishing slightly lower. In an interesting twist, the consumer staples and utilities sectors were the biggest gainers. In fact,...
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Charts of Interest: CTSH, CTXS, DANG, GOOG, WCRX, WFT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
CTXS Challenges Resistance with 3-Day Surge.
GOOG Breaks Wedge Trendline with Gap.
WCRX Moves Above Channel Trendline.
Plus CTSH, DANG, WFT
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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RIMM Tests its Low and Shows Relative Weakness
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Research in Motion (RIMM) remains down in the dumps as the Price Relative broke below its December low and remains in a downtrend. This RIMM:QQQ ratio falls when RIMM underperforms QQQ. On the price chart, RIMM is testing its December low, but the new low in the Price Relative...
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SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS STALL NEAR RESISTANCE -- MDY FORMS HANGING MAN ON WEEKLY CHART -- SPY STALLS ABOVE BREAKOUT -- XLU BREAKS CONSOLIDATION RESISTANCE -- VOLATILITY INDICES NEAR JULY LOWS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL AND MID CAP ETFS STALL NEAR RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. While the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) easily broke above their 2011 highs, the S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) have yet...
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Stocks Move from Oversold to Overbougt, Even as Dollar Surges
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a sharp setback on Tuesday, stocks moved from oversold to overbought in three days. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surged from 78.5 to 81.5 (3.8%), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved back to resistance at 138 and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is challenging...
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