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WEEKLY MOMENTUM REMAINS BULLISH FOR SPY -- DOW TRANSPORTS HAVE YET TO CONFIRM DOW INDUSTRIALS -- BROKEN RESISTANCE TURNS FIRST SUPPORT FOR DOW TRANSPORTS -- SUGAR BREAKS WEDGE RESISTANCE WITH STRONG MOVE -- BOLLINGER BANDS CONTRACT FOR AGRICULTURE ETF
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
WEEKLY MOMENTUM REMAINS BULLISH FOR SPY... Link for todays video. Upside momentum may not be as strong as it was in February 2011, but momentum is clearly bullish and moving in the right direction. Earlier this week I showed the Average Directional Index (ADX) moving to an extreme (above 40)...
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Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks Remain Strong for SPY
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows weekly Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks, which combine price action from two weeks to form a composite candlestick. As of this week, SPY formed nine white (hollow) Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks in a row and shows no weakness. The first long black candlestick would suggest that a corrective period is starting....
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NYSE AD Line Hits New High and Sector BPIs Remain Strong
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Unsurprisingly, there is no change in the indicator summary as stocks held their gains this week. Trading turned a little more indecisive, but we have yet to see any signs of significant selling pressure. The NYSE AD Line hit another new 52-week high this week, the AD Volume Lines remain...
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Stocks Maintian Uptrends Even as Treasuries Bounce
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There are no major changes on the charts. However, yesterday was a bit strange because both treasuries and stocks moved higher. The 7-10 year T-Bond ETF (IEF) was up .14% and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up .44%. Despite a day astray, stocks remains in clear uptrends...
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Bollinger Bands Narrow for Boeing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Boeing (BA) moved into a tight range the last 5-6 weeks and the Bollinger Bands contracted to their narrowest in over six months. This signals a volatility contraction, which in turn could foreshadow a volatility expansion. Watch resistance from the February highs and support from the February low for the...
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COMMODITIES START TO CATCH UP TO STOCKS -- ENERGY AND PRECIOUS METALS ARE LEADING THE COMMODITY RALLY -- OIL SERVICE STOCKS CLEAR 200-DAY LINE -- GOLD MINERS ETF MAY BE BOTTOMING -- GDX LEADERS INCLUDE SILVER WHEATON, YAMANA, AND RANDGOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMODITIES ARE TURNING UP... One of the characteristics of the "new normal" in intermarket relationships that has existed over the last decade has been the close correlation between stock and commodity prices. In other words, stock and commodities prices have usually trended in the same direction. Both peaked...
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Stocks Stall, but Refuse to Buckle - Gold Holds Breakout
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks edged lower on Wednesday as commodities moved higher. There is generally a positive correlation between stocks and commodities, including gold. The Dollar and commodities are generally negatively correlated, as are stocks and treasures. Even though intermarket relationships are important, my first focus is on the individual price charts because...
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Charts of Interest: ABX, BA, GFI, GOOG, ORCL
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Bollinger Bands Narrow for BA as Ascending Triangle Forms.
GFI Firms at Key Retracement.
GOOG Forms Harami at Resistance.
Plus ABX and ORCL.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...
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SMALL-CAPS LAG SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY -- FINANCE SECTOR PERFORMANCE ALSO FLATTENS -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LAGS SINCE JANUARY -- IWM CONSOLIDATES AFTER GAP -- TREND STRENGTH INDICATOR REACHES AN EXTREME FOR S&P 500
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LAGGING SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY... Link for todays video. After leading the stock market from December 19th until February 3rd, small-caps have lagged the broader market the last 2-3 weeks. Chart 1 shows the performance for five major index ETFs since January (year-to-date). IWM was leading the charge with the...
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Currency PerfChart Reflects Risk-on Environment
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The PerfChart below shows the performance for ten currencies since January (year-to-date). The traditional safe-haven currencies are down (Dollar and Yen), while two emerging market currencies are up (Real and Peso). The Euro is also up, which reflects the current risk-on environment for the stock market.
Click this image for...
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IWM Underperforms, GLD Breaks Out and UUP Hits Retracement
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Even though the major index ETFs remain in uptrends, signs of weakness are emerging under the hood and stocks are ripe for a corrective period. First, small-caps continue to show relative weakness since 3-Feb, which is when IWM peaked. Second, sentiment remains overtly bullish as the 10-day SMA of the...
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Retail SPDR Traces Out Bearish Engulfing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Retail SPDR (XRT) hit a new high with a gap last week, but failed to hold this gap as a bearish engulfing pattern formed on Tuesday. Volume also perked up to its highest level in four days. After a rally from 52 to 59, the ETF could correct back...
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SPY Uptrend Enters 10th Week
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks have been overbought for weeks, but the uptrend just keeps extending. SPY is a classic example of an index ETF becoming overbought and remaining overbought. The ETF broke resistance on 19-Dec to start the current uptrend, which is some nine weeks old. SPY was up over 7% in mid...
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Charts of Interest: ALK, ATVI, BSX, CTSH, IPI, LLY, OMX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
ATVI Edges Higher within Rising Wedge.
IPI Consolidates after Breakout.
LLY Gaps above Falling Wedge Trendline.
Plus ALK, BSX, CTSH, IPI, OMX
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...
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SILVER RIPE FOR TRADING AGAIN
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
With all the press centering in upon Gold gains recently +10%, Silver has risen by +19% - thereby outperforming the yellow metal by +9%. Silver - the poor man's good; now looks rather ripe for trading once again. This is as it should be in a metals bull...
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ENERGY SHARES START TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Energy shares were this week's strongest market sector. That's the first time we've seen relative strength by the energy sector in three months. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) trading at the highest level in seven months. [A "golden cross"...
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THE BULLISH MOVE IN GOLD ISN'T OVER
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
It takes time and patience for continuation patterns to play out. Many traders grow frustrated, especially after the stealth move higher ends because of the time involved for continuation patterns to form. The current bull market in gold has lasted more than a decade and there are few technical signs...
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ENERGY SHARES START TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH -- GASOLINE AND HEATING OIL HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT -- HOW TO CHART FUTURES CONTRACTS FOR ENERGY SIGNALS -- WHY THE USO ALWAYS LAGS BEHIND PRICE OF CRUDE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
ENERGY SHARES START TO SHOW RELATIVE STRENGTH ... Energy shares were this week's strongest market sector. That's the first time we've seen relative strength by the energy sector in three months. Chart 1 shows the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) trading at the highest level in...
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Consumer Discretionary and Technology Lead Sectors in StockCharts Technical Rank
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR for the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is in a close third. High SCTR scores indicate that these sectors show excellent relative strength and market leadership.
Click this...
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STOCKS ARE FAIRLY VALUED
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
News headlines are usually more confusing than helpful, especially when trying to determine if stocks are overvalued, fairly valued, ot undervalued. At any given time there will be those who simultaneously claim that stocks overvalued and undervalued. Of course, they all have their own methodologies, which (surprise, surprise) support their...
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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SCTRS LEAD -- NASDAQ AND NYSE NET ADVANCING VOLUME OSCILLATORS TURN DOWN -- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE EXTENDS NINE WEEK SURGE -- NYSE AD VOLUME LINE EXCEEDS 2011 HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND TECHNOLOGY SCTRS LEAD... Link for todays video. Of the nine sector SPDRs, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and the Technology SPDR (XLK) have the highest StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The SCTR for the Industrials SPDR (XLI) is in a close third. High SCTR scores indicate that these...
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Gold Miners ETF Forms Big Bad Bullish Engulfing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) opened weak with a print below 53, but then recovered with a high volume rally and close near 55. Overall, Thursday's long white candlestick engulfed the prior four candlesticks. At the very least, this establishes support with Thursday's low. Follow through...
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NYSE AD Line Powers Indicator Summary with Another New High
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the indicator summary as stocks maintain their gains and show no signs of significant selling pressure. While this rally is certainly getting overextended, it takes actual selling pressure to produce a pullback. None of the indicator groups shows weakness just yet. The Nasdaq AD Volume...
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SPY Holds the Gap and Small Caps Spring to Life
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks may seem overbought, sentiment may seem too bullish and the odds of a correction may seem high, but a pullback cannot materialize until there is a noticeable and sustainable increase in selling pressure. This means we need to see more than a day of selling pressure AND some sort...
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Apple Goes Parabolic and Forms Bearish Engulfing
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Apple is no doubt in a strong uptrend, but the recent move went parabolic as the trendline slope steepened for the third time. The latest surge from 420 to 520 was pretty much straight up. With a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern taking shape on Wednesday, the stock could be ripe...
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Stocks Reverse Early Gains as Small Caps Underperform
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Dollar broke resistance, the Euro moved lower and stocks gave up early gains with a rather sharp afternoon sell-off. Conditions remain ripe for a corrective period and stocks are showing signs of fatigue. In particular, Apple-less small-caps have been relatively weak since IWM peaked on February 3rd and sentiment...
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Charts of Interest: ATVI, BBY, MMM, PNRA, TGT, VZ
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
BBY Hits Resistance at Key Retracement.
MMM Stalls as Bollinger Bands Contract.
VZ Forms Triangle within Downtrend.
Plus ATVI, PNRA, TGT
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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Volatility Surges as Vix ETN Moves Higher
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After a sharp move lower from late November to early February, the S&P 500 VIX ETN (VXX) bounced the last seven days with its biggest move since November. Volume also surged. It appears that traders are taking out a little insurance with the stock market so overbought.
Click...
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NIKKEI SURGES ABOVE OCTOBER HIGH -- DOLLAR SURGES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT ZONE -- GOLD BOUNCES WITHIN FALLING FLAG -- GOLD MINER ETFS HIT INFLECTION POINT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NIKKEI SURGES ABOVE OCTOBER HIGH... Link for todays video. Asian markets moved higher on Wednesday with the Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) leading the charge. I featured the Nikkei in the Market Message on January 23rd as it surged above 8750 and weekly PPO moved above its signal line. Chart 1 shows...
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Gold Tests Key Support as Dollar Breaks Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks edged lower most of the day and then surged in the final 30 minutes. Even the smallest of dips brought out the bulls. I would hazard a guess that a fair amount of money missed this rally and some of it is on the sidelines waiting for a pullback....
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Coffee and Sugar ETFs Take a Hit
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The ETF Market Summary shows commodity ETFs under pressure during the day Tuesday. The Coffee (JO) and Sugar (SGG) ETFs were leading the way down. The Copper ETF (CU) and Palladium (PALL) ETFs, which represent industrial metals, were also weak.
Click this chart for a live image...
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A LOT OF INTERMARKET DIVERGENCES ARE SHOWING UP ON PRICE CHARTS -- BOND YIELDS AREN'T RISING WITH STOCKS -- NEITHER ARE COMMODITIES OR FOREIGN STOCKS -- CANADIAN DOLLAR AND STOCK MARKET REMAIN STALLED AT OVERHEAD RESISTANCE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND YIELD DIVERGES FROM S&P 500 ... A number of intermarket linkages that have worked for years don't seem to be working in 2012. As a result, a number of intermarket divergences are showing up. One of them is the link between stocks and bond yields. Chart...
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Dollar and Treasuries Firm as Stocks Remain Overbought
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Is it turnaround Tuesday? Stocks are in uptrends, but way overbought and ripe for a corrective period. Small-caps (IWM) are lagging large-caps (SPY) the last 6-7 days and this is a sign of market fatigue. The Dollar is way oversold and ripe for a bounce, which could facilitate a stock...
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Charts: AMZN, FRX, MCK, NIHD, PLCE, SFD, SNDK, WAG
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AMZN Fills the Gap.
NIHD Forms Tight Consolidation after Breakout.
SFD Shows Relative Weakness with Falling SCTR.
Plus FRX,MCK,PLCE,SNDK,WAG
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...
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First Solar Fails at Resistance $FSLR
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While the market moves higher on Monday, First Solar (FSLR) is moving lower with its second long black candlestick. Also notice that the stock failed at resistance near 50 for the second time in three months.
Click this chart for a live image...
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TREASURIES REMAIN LARGELY UNSCATHED BY STOCK MARKET STRENGTH -- 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD ESTABLISHES CLEAR CONSOLIDATION -- OIL ETF BREAKS CHANNEL TRENDLINE -- INDIA SENSEX CHALLENGES CHANNEL RESISTANCE -- COMBINING WEEKLY AND DAILY CCI FOR SIGNALS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
TREASURIES ARE RELATIVELY UNSCATHED BY STOCK MARKET STRENGTH... Link for todays video. In general, stocks and treasury bonds have been negatively correlated for some time. This means one goes up as the other goes down and visa versa. Even though the stock market moved sharply higher in January and broke...
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Stocks Extend Uptrends as Oil Challanges Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Asian and European markets are in a risk-on mood after the Greek parliament passed the austerity package. This mood is extending to US stock futures, which are up modestly in pre-market trading. Gold, oil and the Euro are high, while the Dollar and treasuries are lower. For stocks, the uptrends...
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WHY BALTIC DRY INDEX HASN'T WORKED THIS YEAR -- FLATTENING YIELD CURVE GAVE BIG BOOST TO HOMEBUILDERS -- USING SCTRS TO SPOT ETF AND STOCK LEADERS -- RALLY IN REGIONAL BANKS ADDS CREDIBILITY TO HOMEBUILDING RALLY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BALTIC DRY INDEX DIVERGES FROM GRAIN PRICES... Chip Anderson recently told me that he has received a lot of inquiries about the strange performance of the Baltic Dry Index, and whether that performance carried any important messages. An article in Barrons this morning (Saturday) prompted me to write something on...
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GERMAN DAX PULLS BACK SHARPLY AS FRENCH CAC UNDERPERFORMS -- EURO MOVES LOWER AS DOLLAR CHALLENGES TRENDLINE -- GOLD FOLLOWS EURO LOWER AND FORMS POTENTIAL FALLING FLAG -- OIL MOVES LOWER WITHIN FALLING CHANNEL -- SPY GETS COLD FEET AT 2011 HIGHS
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GERMAN DAX PULLS BACK SHARPLY AS FRENCH CAC UNDERPERFORMS... Link for todays video. Sorry to bring out the Greek card, but it appears that the weekend vote in the Greek parliament is rattling investors. Several sources have labeled this vote a referendum on the Euro. Passage of the austerity measures...
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Weekly MACD Keeps Traders on the Right Side of the Bigger Trend
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF with weekly candles and weekly MACD (12,26,9). Even though some signals may seem late, this classic indicator combines trend following and momentum to keep players on the right side of trend. Moves above the signal line favor the...
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