Even though the Euro and Treasuries surged off support over the last two days, stocks are holding up and oil remains near $100. It is a paradox and something needs to give here. Strength in Treasuries and the Dollar is tied to the risk-off trade, while strength in stocks and... READ MORE
StockCharts.com offers a Market Carpet covering component stocks for seven European Indices. Chartists can look at all seven or click the title bar to focus on one. The image below focuses on the Euronext 100. There is a lot of red today with banks representing three of the five... READ MORE
The price swings are getting shorter as the triangle tightens in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). While it is hard to act on every swing within the triangle, this is the only way to anticipate the triangle breakout. Those not acting on the internal swings, would simply wait... READ MORE
ADBE forms Rising Wedge after Big Gap Down. GCI Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. PG Consolidates at Trendline Support. Plus APOL, FISV, ISIL, SCHL This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF... READ MORE
After a surge with good volume in October, Altera (ALTR) corrected with a falling wedge the last 2-3 weeks. Also notice that the stock exceeded its September high with the October surge. The falling wedge looks corrective and a break above last week's high would signal a continuation... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDRS AND TRANSPORT ISHARES FORM PENNANTS... Link for todays video. With flat trading the last few weeks, a number of stocks and ETFs formed pennant or triangle consolidations. John Murphy noted this pattern in the S&P 500 on Friday. Pennants and triangles are usually continuation patterns... READ MORE
As noted on Friday, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is in a medium-term uptrend after the October breakout in the 122-124 area. Broken resistance turns into support and the ETF tested this support zone with sharp declines in November. Both declines were punctuated by down gaps, but the... READ MORE
S&P 500 STAYS IN SHORT-TERM CONSOLIDATION PATTERN ... The bars in Chart 1 pretty much tell the story of the week's trading. After all is said and done, very little changed from a trending standpoint. That has kept the S&P 500 in a two-week holding... READ MORE
Traditional technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance turns support and broken support turns resistance. This concept is alive and well on the German DAX Index ($DAX) chart. Using the Auto Support-Resistance Tool on Sharpcharts, a horizontal line at 6400 goes from red to green to red again as this... READ MORE
ITALIAN BOND ETN PLUNGES TO NEW LOW... Link for todays video. The markets remain fixated on the European sovereign debt issues and, in particularly, Italian bond yields. While I cannot offer deeper insight into Italian politics, I can make a pretty good Bolognese and can analyze key charts pertaining to... READ MORE
After plunging along with the market early this week, Analog Devices (ADI is trading at support from the early November lows. On this P&F chart, each box represents a quarter percent price change (.25%) and price data is based on the close every 30 minutes. Yes, this is... READ MORE
Technically, SPY is in a medium-term uptrend after the October breakout in the 122-124 area. This breakout can be seen on the daily chart below. Broken resistance turns into support and the ETF is currently testing this support zone with two declines into the 122-124 area. After a sharp advance... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary as the October breakouts continue to hold. Even though the stock market got shook pretty hard last week and this week, these breakouts are still holding. We cannot question a breakout unless there is a move back below broken resistance. For example,... READ MORE
For the second time in three weeks, the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) moved above 121 and then gapped down. These two gaps indicate that DIA has stiff resistance in the 122 area. Key support is based on the prior trough at 116. Follow through below this level would reverse the... READ MORE
S&P 500 BACK BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE... This is a bad time for stocks to experience heavy selling. That's because the market has been struggling with its 200-day moving average which is the defining point between bull and bear markets. Evidence still suggests that the October rebound... READ MORE
Global equities remain tethered to the Euro and the outlook for the European debt dilemma. Even though a big ocean separates the US from Europe, US traders and investors should keep an eye on the spread between German bond yields and other bond yields, namely Italian and Spanish. This is... READ MORE
IGT Forms Large Shooting Star. JBHT Hits Resistance at 61.80% Retracement. PLCE Declines from Resistance on High Volume. Plus EXPD and GE This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
50-DAY AVERAGES IN JEOPARDY AGAIN... Yesterday's optimism about the turn of events in Italy has proved to be very short-lived. Italian bond yields have spiked over 7% for the first time since the Euro was created. The breaking of that threshold is causing heavy selling of European stocks.... READ MORE
As noted yesterday, the medium-term trend was up because of the resistance breakout in October. This breakout can be seen on a daily chart. Broken resistance in the 122-124 area turned into support and held after the Throwback. The yellow area marks this Throwback on the 60-minute chart. Even though... READ MORE
The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) and the Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) have been leading the market higher since early October. Both bottomed with the October 3rd close and surged over 20% the last five weeks. Also notice how these two are moving step-for-step. KRE is red and XHB is black. Strength... READ MORE
WALMART NEARS TEST OF 2008 HIGH... In my Market Message on October 20, I showed Wal Mart starting to catch fire for the first time in a long time. The big retailer was been showing new upside leadership in the market. That's not necessarily a good sign for... READ MORE
Even though SPY formed a bearish rising flag after the plunge to 122, the ETF has yet to break support as a flat consolidation formed the last few days. The ETF broke below the lower trendline of the rising flag on Friday, but quickly rebounded to establish support at 124.... READ MORE
AMKR Forms Ascending Triangle. COST Consolidates Near Resistance. SWKS Breaks Flag Trendline with high Volume. Plus BSX, KGC, MDT, NVDA, WNR This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
Randgold Resources (GOLD) is leading the gold miners and gold with a new 52-week high the last few days. Also note that Randgold broke resistance with a move above 115. The indicator window shows Randgold relative to gold with a ratio plot (GOLD:$GOLD). The Price Relative is trending up... READ MORE
FOREIGN ETFS THREATEN 50-DAY AVERAGE... Foreign stocks have been acting worse than U.S. stocks over the past couple of weeks. Having recently failed tests of their 200-day averages, a number of foreign stock ETFs are retesting their 50-day lines. Chart 1 shows EAFE iShares (EFA) having gapped lower last... READ MORE
GREG SCHNELL AND TOM BOWLEY IN CALGARY... First off, Tom Boley and Greg Schnell - two of our great market commentators - are teaming up to talk in Calgary this week. They have already presented there Saturday morning, but if you missed that presentation, they will also be presenting on... READ MORE
I am extremely happy to announce that StockCharts.com is now working with the good folks at Security Research Company (S.R.C.) to bring you high-quality historical financial charts based on their huge database of financial information. In case you are not familiar with SRC's work, they&... READ MORE
When you review the history of the stock market, you see that financials tend to hold the key for whether a stock market advance is sustainable or not. The long-term chart below still raises questions about the sustainability of not only the October rally, but also the multi-year rally off... READ MORE
Quite simply, the past 5-week rally has been breathtaking, but it remains to be seen whether it has "legs" of whether it does not. It is of our opinion, that it "does have legs", and it does so given the Financials (XLF) are rallying...but more... READ MORE
Earlier this week I noted that the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the Russell 2000 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF were testing broken resistance. The October surges produced breakouts and it is important that these resistance breakouts hold. Basic technical analysis teaches us that broken resistance levels turn into... READ MORE
Apple Corp (AAPL), which accounts for around 14% of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), gapped down in mid October and then consolidated. This low volume consolidation now looks like a flat flag. Watch the boundaries for the next directional clue. Any move Apple will affect QQQ. Click this chart for... READ MORE
My Market Message from Tuesday of last week (October 25) wrote about new signs of strength emerging from an oversold gold-mining group. It showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) bouncing off chart support along its 2011 reaction lows (see circles in Figure 1). In Thursday's trading,... READ MORE
Over 10 years ago I developed an indicator called Dollar-Weighted Volume (DWV). It could be that I reinvented the wheel, but I am not aware of anyone else who uses this indicator. DWV is variation of On-Balance Volume (OBV), which was developed by Joe Granville. DWV is calculated by multiplying... READ MORE
MARKING KEY SUPPORT LEVEL FOR THE OFFENSIVE SECTORS... Link for todays video. Earlier this week I noted that the Nasdaq 100 ETF, the Russell 2000 ETF and the S&P 500 ETF were testing broken resistance. The October surges produced breakouts and it was important that these resistance breakouts... READ MORE
The PerfChart below shows the performance for five intermarket ETFs. The Gold SPDR (GLD) and the US Oil Fund (USO) sport the biggest gains and are clearly leading the group. The 20+ year Bond ETF (TLT) and US Dollar Fund (UUP) have the smallest gains and are lagging. Such relative... READ MORE
GOLD STOCKS START TO SHINE AGAIN... My Market Message from Tuesday of last week (October 25) wrote about new signs of strength emerging from an oversold gold-mining group. It showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) bouncing off chart support along its 2011 reaction lows (see circles in Figure... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but breadth is split with the Nasdaq showing less strength. After some weakness early in the week, stocks rebounded on Wednesday-Thursday and the major index ETFs are largely holding their October breakouts. This selling pressure was enough to push Nasdaq net new highs into negative... READ MORE
And now for the employment report...Friday's market is at the mercy of the employment report, or rather Wall Street's reaction to the report. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bounced off medium-term support in the 122-124 area with a move above 126 the last... READ MORE
The Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) broke resistance with the October surge and broken resistance turned into support. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis. The throwback to broken resistance held (so far) as the ETF bounced back above 23 on Wednesday. Click this chart for a live image... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 ETF TESTS IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL... Link for todays video. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) testing support from the mid October lows. Support there stems from two spike lows in October and Tuesdays low. This is an important test because a support break here would reverse... READ MORE