Altera (ALTR) is at its make-or-break point. The stock surged to the August highs with a rather strong move last week. This advance met resistance as the stock pulled back with a pennant last four days. Either the stock will fail at resistance or break out of the pennant to... READ MORE
In an about face, stocks started the day strong and sold off in the final hour. Perhaps even more telling, small-caps led the way lower with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) loosing 1.55% on the day. This is a negative sign to see small-caps lead lower. These stocks (companies)... READ MORE
Stocks sold off in the final hour with small-caps leading the way lower. As the market summary page shows, the S&P SmallCap 600 ($SML) and the Russell 2000 ($RUT) led the afternoon decline with losses greater than 1.5% on the day. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
S&P 500 STALLS AT 50-DAY LINE ... Today's modest rally stalled at some important resistance barriers. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 backing off from its 50-day moving average and its late August high. Chart 2 shows the Nasdaq Composite closing just below chart resistance... READ MORE
Stocks started the day weak, but surged in the final hour on rumors of a Greek debt deal involving the European Central Bank (ECB), IMF and the European Commission. Gee, maybe we can find a few more organizations to throw into this rumor. In any case, these rumors and "... READ MORE
As Apple goes, so goes the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). Wall Street used to say the same thing about GM during its heyday. Apple surged to a new 52-week high and powered QQQ higher on Monday. The indicator window shows the Correlation Coefficient trading above .90 since mid August. Click... READ MORE
SPY FORMS BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERN ON WEEKLY CHART... Link for todays video. There can be different trends in different timeframes. A three year weekly chart can show an emerging downtrend, but a three month daily chart can show an uptrend. Moreover, there can, and are, counter-trend rallies within bear markets.... READ MORE
It could be a wild week in the markets. First, stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open. The Euro and oil are trading lower, while bonds and the Dollar are trading higher. Second, the Fed starts its two-day meeting on Tuesday with a policy statement on Wednesday afternoon.... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! With headlines like "Rally in Trouble?", "Start of Correction?" and "VIX Stalls" you'd think that our technical analysts were trying to tell you something... Regardless of what John, Arthur, Carl and the rest of the gang is hinting at,... READ MORE
Two Thursdays ago (September 1) I wrote about the CBOE Volatility (VIX) having reached previous resistance formed during the spring of 2010 near 48. The chart below shows that the VIX has backed off from that overhead barrier which has helped stabilize the stock market (green arrow). In fact, the... READ MORE
I'm not buying this rally - not yet anyway. This past Sunday night, I calculated max pain for the ETFs that track our major indices. After staring at the numbers, I wondered "can they do it again"? By "they", I meant the market makers.... READ MORE
Over the past 6-weeks, we've seen the S&P 500 trade in a large sideways pattern between 1220 and 1100; we find this eerily reminiscent of a bearish pattern that will resolve itself to new lows. Certainly this is our viewpoint; and we believe the supporting technicals... READ MORE
In the last month or so gold has formed a double top that could be the start of a much needed correction for the metal. Specifically the chart below shows an Adam & Eve double top. The first top is sharp and spiky, and the second is more rounded, depicting... READ MORE
The S&P 500 peaked in early July and declined sharply into early August. There has been a rebound from this low, but all sectors are still down since July 8th - except one. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is the only sector SPDR showing a gain since July 8th.... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) continues to hold up well as it challenges its May-August highs with an inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. This also happens to be a bullish continuation pattern. Yes, a Head-and-Shoulders can mark a continuation. Also note that the pattern since late July looks like a cup-with-handle. Either way,... READ MORE
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPDR RUNS INTO RESISTANCE... The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is a bit of a conundrum right now. Chart 1 shows the ETF moving into bear mode with a break below the June lows in August. After this decline, the ETF formed a rising flag over the last 5-6... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains unchanged. Except for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and large techs, stocks have been moving sideways the last several weeks. QQQ is trading at its highest level since August 3rd, but the other major index ETFs remain below their August 31st highs. The same can be... READ MORE
As noted earlier, I view the decline from late July to early August as an impulse move. This means it is a strong move that is part of a bigger trend. In this case it is down. The choppy advance since the second week of August looks like a corrective... READ MORE
Target (TGT) surged to resistance in the 51.5-52 area for the third time in five weeks and formed a long black candlestick. A black (filled) candlestick means the close or current price is below the open. This means TGT opened at 51.74 on Thursday and moved lower after... READ MORE
VIX STALLS AT PREVIOUS RESISTANCE LEVEL ... Two Thursdays ago (September 1) I wrote about the CBOE Volatility (VIX) having reached previous resistance formed during the spring of 2010 near 48. Chart 1 shows that the VIX has backed off from that overhead barrier which has helped stabilize the stock market... READ MORE
The market is getting knee-deep in hollow rhetoric. Yesterday, Sarkozy and Merkel said they are "convinced that the future of Greece is in the euro zone". Gee, what a surprise. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China will do everything in its power to preserve the Euro and... READ MORE
BRCM Shows Relative Strength. DE Forms Falling Wedge Correction. SVU Forms Bullish Pennant after Surge. Plus CVX, DDS, GFI This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Stocks put together a pretty good rally over the last five weeks, but the finance sector continues to show relative weakness. The chart below shows the S&P Sector PerfChart with the percentage gain for the nine sectors and the S&P 500. All nine sectors are keeping... READ MORE
LARGE-CAP TECH STOCKS LEAD MARKET HIGHER... Link for todays video. The bulls refuse to buckle as stocks moved higher for the third day running. Overall, large-cap tech stocks have been leading the market since the August 19th low. Chips were particularly strong on Monday with the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) surging... READ MORE
Stocks managed a half-hearted bounce on Tuesday for the second up day in a row. This is not bad considering the news backdrop (European debt and banks). Technical analysts are not so much interested in the news, but rather the market's reaction to the news. An advance on... READ MORE
Maxim is leading a resurgent semiconductor group with a big surge over the last six days. The stock broke above its August high and exceeded the May trendline. Volume also picked up on the breakout. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
After meandering in negative territory most of the day, stocks surged in the final hour to close with small gains. Rumors were swirling that China was going to buy Greece. That's a joke. Expect more market moving rumors as this crisis unfolds. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and... READ MORE
ADBE Consolidates after Gap Up. DELL Forms Piercing Line at Support. JWN Hits Resistance at Key Retracement. Plus AES, ARUN, LTD, LULU, PG This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE
Semiconductor stocks showed some relative strength on Monday. Altera (ALTR) participated with a big bullish engulfing on high volume. This is the second high-volume advance in the last five trading days. Look for follow through above resistance at 38 for confirmation. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
NASDAQ UNDERPERFORMS NASDAQ 100 IN RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT... Link for todays video. There are a number of ways to measure the appetite for risk in the stock market. In particular, chartists can use ratio charts to compare the performance of two different indices or ETFs. Chartists first need to choose the... READ MORE
European banks are in the spot light on Monday. First, speculation is rising that Greece will finally default. Second, the debt agencies are poised to downgrade a number of European (mainly French) banks. Third, there is a clear rift in the European Central Bank (ECB) after the surprise resignation of... READ MORE
NEW NORMAL IN INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPS ... Back on April 5, I wrote a Market Message explaining the "new normal" in intermarket relationships. I did that to highlight two changes that had taken place over the past decade owing primarily to deflationary pressures not seen since the Great Depression of... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) moved sharply lower the last two weeks with the Euro leading the way. FXE is trading below its summer lows and SPY may be about to follow suit. The indicator window shows the SPY:FXE Correlation Coefficient.... READ MORE
SPY STARTS WAVE 3 OF 5 DOWN... Link for todays video. The zigzag higher since early August looks like an ABC correction that ended Wave-4 in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Chart 1 shows SPY with the 5% Zigzag indicator. This is not an indicator per se. It... READ MORE
One indicator group was upgraded in the indicator summary. With a surge in the Aroon Oscillator (20), SPY momentum was upgraded from bearish to neutral. The rest remains unchanged, very unchanged. Stocks have been edging higher with choppy trading the last five weeks. This amounts to a consolidation after a... READ MORE
Stimulus-response. The stock market is like an ameba reacting to stimulus pokes from Washington, the Fed and the European Central Bank. Even though nothing is concrete, the market is certainly expecting some stimulus down the road. Sometimes the expectations are better than the real thing. Stocks remain in an uptrend... READ MORE
Like many other ETFs and stocks, the Steel ETF (SLX) has been range bound since the early August breakdown. The ETF plunged to 50 in early August and then moved into a trading range the last five weeks. Watch the range boundaries for the next directional clue. Click this image... READ MORE
GOLD MINERS INDEX HITS NEW HIGH... My Market Message last Friday morning showed the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) on the verge of a bullish breakout to a new record high. Chart 1 shows that bullish breakout taking place this week (see circle). And this has happened while gold... READ MORE
All this stimulus talk has stimulated the bulls. Charles Evens, head of the Chicago Fed, called on stimulus to cut the unemployment rates. Obama will no doubt offer some sort of stimulus plan to create more jobs. The FOMC is also likely to join the party with some sort of... READ MORE
CSCO Forms Pennant after Early August Surge. MA Breaks Triangle Resistance. NVDA Gaps above Resistance on Big Volume. Plus GGB, SVU and WFR. This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or... READ MORE