MEMBERS ONLY
SMALL-CAPS LEAD LATE SURGE, BUT BIG TECHS LAG -- STOCKS AND TREASURIES MAINTAIN NEGATIVE CORRELATION -- 7-10 YEAR BOND ETF CORRECTS AFTER FIFTH OF THE FIFTH -- CHANNEL TRENDLINE MARKS LONG-TERM SUPPORT FOR GOLD
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS LEAD LATE SURGE, BUT TECHS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS... Link for todays video. Small-caps led a ninth inning surge as the stock market rallied for a strong close. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advancing around 1.5% on the day. The two day advance is certainly impressive...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Stocks Surge with Oversold Bounce off August Lows
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved sharply higher on Tuesday with the major index ETFs gaining 3% or more. All sectors were up with energy and consumer discretionary leading the way. Wednesday's move was certainly broad based, but still considered an oversold bounce with a larger downtrend. The first chart shows SPY...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Best Buy Traces out an Array of Bullish Candlesticks
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Best Buy (BBY) is attempting to base with several bullish candlesticks over the last two weeks. Most recently, a Harami is taking shape on Monday-Tuesday. Prior to this, BBY formed a Hammer on Thursday and an Inverted Hammer on Friday. None of these candles has been confirmed yet. Look for...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF CLEARS SUMMER HIGH -- A LOT OF GOLD MINERS HIT 52-WEEK HIGHS -- TWO RECENT BREAKOUTS INCLUDE BARRICK AND NEWMONT -- SILVER BREAKOUT BOOSTS SILVER SHARES -- SILVER WHEATON IS GROUP LEADER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GDX HITS NEARS 2011 HIGH... Chart 1 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners Index (GDX) surging 4% yesterday through its July high on rising volume. That puts the GDX in position to challenge its previous highs near 64 formed late last year and this April. The rising relative strength line...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Drops Back to Prior Lows as Dollar Weakens
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
It was pop and drop on Monday. Stocks opened strong, but gains quickly evaporated as selling pressure took over. Even though the major index ETFs closed near their lows for the day, they are still near support from last week's lows and the bulls are chomping at the...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: AAPL, ATVI, BIIB, DE, ERTS, MCP
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AAPL Returns to Broken Resistance.
BIIB Firms in 50-61.80% Retracement Zone.
DE Forms Gravestone Doji above Early August Low.
Plus ATVI, ERTS, MCP
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Gold Miners ETF Challenges Major Resistance Level
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After lagging gold the entire year, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is trying to play catch-up with a surge to resistance. The December 2010 and April 2011 highs mark resitance here. Overall, GDX has been stuck in a range since October 2010 and a move above resistance would break this...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
BOND MARKET PRICES IN AN ECONOMIC DIP -- YIELD CURVE FLATTENS, BUT REMAINS STEEP -- TLT LEADS HIGHER WITH MOVE TO 2008 HIGHS -- 30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS FURTHER ROOM TO FALL -- GOLD GOES PARABOLIC WITH STEEP MOVE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BOND MARKET PRICES IN AN ECONOMIC DIP... Link for todays video. Double dip seems to be the economic topic djour. A CNN poll on August 10th noted that 25% of economists expect a double dip. This number was up from 15% just three months ago. Double dip refers to another...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Major index ETFs Test the early August Lows
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Bottom-pickers and knife-catchers are no doubt eyeing current levels as the major index ETFs tests the early August lows. After a sharp decline the first week of August, trading turned very volatile with four consecutive 4+ percent swings in SPY (down,up,down,up). There was a little follow through...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
JOIN THE STOCKCHARTS ANSWER NETWORK (s.c.a.n.) TODAY!
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!
Last week, we hosted over 300 enthusiastic StockCharts.com members here in Seattle for ChartCon 2011. John, Arthur and myself cannot say enough about the great people we met. Thanks again to everyone that participated. Here's a link to more reviews and photos of the...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
IN AN EMOTIONAL MARKET, LET SENTIMENT BE YOUR GUIDE
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
If the stock market were a mental health patient, it would have been committed by now. Major trend changes are occurring at points of wild volatility and extreme fear. I've written many times in the past about my favorite sentiment indicator - the equity only put call ratio...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
THE BEGINNING OF A BEAR MARKET?
by Richard Rhodes,
Founder and President, Rhodes Capital Management and Rhodes Trading Group
The recent volatility is enough to make one step back, put your money aside - and reassess. In fact, this is what both institutional and individual investors have done over the past 3-weeks as money withdrawn from funds has significantly increased - even more so than at the March-2009 panic...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
LONG-TERM SELL SIGNALS
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
On 8/2/2011 our mechanical Thrust/Trend Model generated a medium-term NEUTRAL signal for the S&P 500 Index just in time to avoid the market break on 8/4. (Neutral means to be market neutral -- in cash or fully hedged.) After the breakdown we believed we...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
DOWNSIDE MOVING AVERAGE CROSSINGS INCREASE MARKET RISK -- 10 - AND 40- WEEK EMA DOWNTURN HAS GOOD TRACK RECORD OF IDENTIFYING BEAR MARKETS -- SO DOES 13-34 WEEKLY COMBINATION WHICH ALSO TURNED DOWN
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
10 WEEK AVERAGE FALLS BELOW 40 WEEK ... Another sign that the stock market has probably entered a bear market is the fact that the 10-week moving average (or 50-day) has fallen below the 40-week (or 200 days). [For long term signals like these, I prefer weekly to daily signals].
Chart...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Consumer Discretionary Sector Moves from Leader to Laggard
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Selling pressure since July 1st pushed the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) from a market leader to a market laggard. These Sector PerfCharts show the performance for the nine sector SPDRs relative to the S&P 500. The percentage change shown is the relative change, which equals the percent change...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
GERMANY LEADS GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
A 5% drop in German stocks is contributing to heavy selling in Europe which has spread to the U.S. Chart 1 shows the German DAX falling 5.3% to make it Europe's biggest loser. Most other European stocks are down 4%. Chart 2 EAFE Index iShares (EFA)...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Gold and Treasuries Outperform Everything
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After holding their own until late July, stocks joined oil and the Dollar with a move lower. The chart below shows the US Treasuries Continuous Futures ($USB) and Gold Spot ($GOLD) trading at six month highs. In contrast, Light Crude Spot ($WTIC) and the S&P 500 hit six...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF MARKET TOPS -- RSI MOVES INTO BEAR MODE FOR THE S&P 500 -- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MOVES FROM LEADER TO LAGGARD -- STEEL AND HOMEBUILDERS LEAD KEY INDUSTRY GROUPS LOWER -- EUROPEAN BANKS LEAD EUROPEAN INDICES LOWER
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF PRIOR MARKET TOPS... Link for todays video. Now is a good time to review the prior market reversals for clues on what to expect with this reversal. History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme (Mark Twain). The current bearish reversal in the S&...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Indicator Summary Remains Decidedly Negative
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The indicator summary remains decidedly negative and is unlikely to turn positive anytime soon. After some serious technical damage the last few weeks, the bulls need time to regroup and form some sort of base. At this point, I will simply follow the evidence until there are signs of a...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Gaps Down to End Oversold Bounce
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Selling pressure hit the stock market hard on Thursday as the major index ETFs declined sharply. Small-caps and mid-caps led the way lower as their respective indices declined over 5%. All sectors were lower. The defensive sectors held up the best with consumer staples and utilities declining less than 2%...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
52-week Low in Shanghai Composite Bodes Bearish
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) peaked in November 2010 and hit a new 52-week low in August 2011. As the S&P 500 moved to a new high in April-May 2011, the index formed a lower high in mid April. A support break and 52-week low followed in the next...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
GLOBAL STOCKS TUMBLE WHICH MEANS SHORT-TERM BOUNCE IS PROBABLY OVER -- GERMANY IS BIGGEST EUROPEAN LOSER -- GOLD HITS NEW HIGHS AS OTHER COMMODITIES TUMBLE -- FLIGHT TO TREASURIES PUSHES 10-YEAR YIELD TO ALL-TIME LOW
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
GERMANY LEADS GLOBAL STOCKS LOWER ... A 5% drop in German stocks is contributing to heavy selling in Europe which has spread to the U.S. Chart 1 shows the German DAX falling 5.3% to make it Europe's biggest loser. Most other European stocks are down 4%. Chart...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Stalls at Retracement as Treasuries Surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The 38.2% retracements are marking resistance as the major index ETFs stutter this week. From low to high, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) surged from 110 to 121 over the past week. Most of this move came with Thursday's surge from 113 to 119. Trading...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: GME, GR, HUM, LXK, TIN, VSI
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
GME Traces out Flag within Downtrend.
GR Forms Hanging Man.
TIN Bounces to Key Retracement.
Plus HUM, LXK, VSI
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SURGING EURO KEEPS RISK-ON TRADE AFLOAT -- AGRICULTURE ETF CORRECTS WITH FALLING WEDGE -- CORN INDEX BREAKS TRIANGLE RESISTANCE -- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNTS SHOWS S&P 500 IN 5-WAVE DECLINE -- CURRENT BOUNCE LOOKS LIKE CORRECTIVE WAVE 4
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SURGING EURO KEEPS RISK-ON TRADE AFLOAT... Link for todays video. The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) broke medium-term and short-term patterns to signal a continuation higher. Chart 1 shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) within an uptrend overall. First, notice that the ETF formed a higher low in January and moved...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY and QQQ Stall Near Lower End Retracements
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks are caught between a rock (medium-term downtrend) and a hard place (short-term uptrend). After a good bounce the last few days, stocks took a breather with some weakness on Tuesday. Actually, stocks have been trading flat since Monday's gap up. This sideways action could be just a...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Oil and Stocks Remain Positively Correlated
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Correlation Coefficient is used to measure the degree of correlation between two assets. Positive correlation means they move in the same direction. Negative correlation means they move in opposite directions. The 12-Month US Oil Fund (USL) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are positively correlated. The 20-day Correlation...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Charts of Interest: ABX, ANF, BBBY, NEM, RAX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Charts of Interest: ABX, ANF, BBBY, NEM, RAX
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
SPY Nears 50% Retracement as Dollar Breaks Down
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks extended their gains on Monday with strong breadth. All sectors were up 1.4% or more. The Energy, Finance and Utilities SPDRs surged over 3%. NYSE Net Advances Percent hit 81% and Nasdaq Net Advances Percent finished at 61%. The NYSE number was especially strong. We can attribute this...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
10-year Treasury Yield Breaks Triangle Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Rates plunged along with stocks over the last several weeks. This makes sense because rates move lower when bonds move high. This chart shows the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) breaking triangle support with a move below 24 (2.4%). Rates remain in a long-term downtrend and Treasury bonds are in...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
NYSE AND NASDAQ NET ADVANCES SURGE TO HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR -- SETTING RESISTANCE FOR THE DOW, NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
NYSE AND NASDAQ NET ADVANCES SURGE TO HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR... Link for todays video. The July-August decline started with a negative breadth surge on July 27th. Charts in the Market Message for that day showed Net Advances for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq plunging to their lowest...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Oversold Bounces Extend with Key Retracements In Sight
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The major index ETFs are now in short-term uptrends as they bounce from oversold levels. SPY tested 112 on Monday and Wednesday with an intraday dip to 110.5 in between (Tuesday). An inverse Head-and-Shoulders formed these three days and the ETF broke above the Tuesday-Wednesday highs with Thursday'...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
BULLS GET A DRAW FOR THE WEEK, BUT SUPPORT BREAKS REMAIN -- BROKEN SUPPORT LEVELS MARK FIRST RESISTANCE TO WATCH -- FINANCE AND BANKING ETFS HIT NEW 52-WEEK LOWS -- AD VOLUME LINES AFFIRM RECENT SELLING PRESSURE
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
BULLS REGROUP, BUT SUPPORT BREAKS REMAIN... With a rebound over the last two days, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) held the support level that was shown in Mondays market message. At the time, SPY was also severely oversold. This weeks bounce alleviated oversold conditions, but it was not...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Euronext Bullish Percent Index Totally Breaks Down
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
StockCharts.com recently added Bullish Percent Indices for some key European indices. In particular, the Euronext 100 ($BPENXT) broke support in June and continued below its 2010 low in July. There is a status bar at the top of each P&F Bullish Percent Index chart. Euronext BPI status...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Indicator Summary Remains Deeply Negative
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The indicator summary remains unchanged after a topsy-turvy week. Nine of the ten indicators are clearly in bear mode. The Nasdaq/NY Composite ratio is the only indicator considered positive because the Nasdaq is outperforming the NY Composite. Relative strength in techs is heavily outweighed by the bearish indications. Most...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Despite Big Gain, Sector Carpet Shows Mixed Picture for the Week
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks moved sharply higher for the second time in two days, but remain mixed, at best, over the last five days. The chart below comes from the Sector Carpet. The red squares show losers, while the green squares show gainers. Notice the numbers at the top of each sector box....
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Small Caps Lead Stock Market as Bonds Tumble
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market staged another big advance in the face of adversity. This is the second such advance in the last three days. All the same, the major index ETFs remain below their closing levels from last Friday. In other words, stocks are still down for the week. Small and...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Small Caps Lead Stock Market as Bonds Tumble $SPY $TLT
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The stock market staged another big advance in the face of adversity. This is the second such advance in the last three days. All the same, the major index ETFs remain below their closing levels from last Friday. In other words, stocks are still down for the week. Small and...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Societe Generale Broke Down Before Headlines Hit
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Among other items, Wednesday's sharp decline in stocks was blamed on solvency issues surrounding Societe Generale (GLE.EU), a large French bank. It is, however, worth noting that SocGen, as it is called, was already in a downtrend. Moreover, the stock broke supports in early July and again...
READ MORE
MEMBERS ONLY
Schizophrenic Stock Market Reverses Bernanke Bounce
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks continued their wild ride with a decline that gave back Tuesday's gains. Even so, the major index ETFs remained above Tuesday's lows. In other words, Wednesday's decline is perhaps a test of the lows. Current volatility reminds me of May-July 2010, which was...
READ MORE
