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Starbucks Breaks Channel Trendline with Big Surge
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Starbucks (SBUX) got a jolt over the last five days with a surge above the upper trendline of a falling channel. Maybe it has something to the grand opening in the Brussels train station! Taking a step back, this pattern looks like a massive flag and the breakout signals a...
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SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER -- GOLD MINERS ETF SPRINGS A BEAR TRAP -- BONDS MAINTAIN CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE FED -- NASDAQ NET ADVANCING VOLUME RATIO SURGES -- NYSE AD LINE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTH
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SMALL-CAPS AND MID-CAPS LEAD STOCKS HIGHER... Link for todays video. Stocks stalled on Wednesday, but held most of their big gains from Tuesday as the Fed voted to maintain current policy. In particular, small-caps led the way higher the last two days with the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) surging off...
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SPY Breaks Resistance as TLT Forms Bull Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Techs and small-caps led the market higher as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above short-term resistance with a big surge. Breadth was also big with the Net Advances Ratios and Net Advancing Volume Ratios exceeding .50 ($NYAD:$NYTOT,$NYUD:$NYTV,$NAAD:$NATOT,$NAUD:$NATV). I will feature...
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Most Active Techs Lead the Market Higher
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
From the Free Charts page, we can see that the 10 most active Nasdaq and NYSE stocks are up in early trading on Tuesday. Gains are especially strong on the Nasdaq. The image below comes from the CandleGlance link just under the most active list. Microsoft has been moving higher...
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IWM Gets Momentum Breakout as SPY Challenges Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is making a stand at support from the March low. After two spinning tops last week, the ETF opened weak and closed pretty strong. Market breadth was not that strong though. Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume did not...
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Charts of Interest: A, BA, DELL, INTC, MMM, ORCL, SYMC
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
A Shows Strong Upside Volume.
DELL Shows Relative Strength in June.
INTC Returns to the Monster Gap.
Plus BA, MMM, ORCL, SYMC.
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)...
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Apple Forms Hammer After Support Break
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
After breaking support with rather high volume the last three days, Apple (AAPL) formed a hammer candlestick that dipped below 315 intraday. The stock still has a gap to contend with and needs to fill this gap to confirm the hammer. You can find more hammers on the predefined scan...
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RETAILERS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE -- RSI TURNS OVERSOLD FOR RETAIL HOLDRS -- AIRLINE INDEX BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT -- ALASKA, JETBLUE AND UNITED-CONTINENTAL LEAD AIRLINES -- NYSE NET NEW HIGHS FLIRT WITH NEGATIVE TERRITORY -- GERMAN DAX FIRMS AT KEY RETRACEMENT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
RETAILERS LEAD OVERSOLD BOUNCE... Link for todays video. Stocks edged higher in early trading on Monday with retailers showing relative strength. It is going to be a big, and possibly volatile, week for the markets. Several key ETFs are testing their March lows as the Papandreou government braces for a...
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Greek Situation Continues to Drive Stocks, Bonds and Dollar
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Greek tragedy continues to drive the markets, and for good reason. EU leaders failed to come up with a definitive plan and the Greek parliament is set for a no confidence vote Tuesday. Should the Papandreou government survive this vote, another round of reforms will be pushed through and...
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THE VIX SAYS IT ALL
by Tom Bowley,
Chief Market Strategist, EarningsBeats.com
Traders are expecting the horrible market we've seen thus far in June to only get worse. The VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. It measures implied volatility of S&P 500 index options, or the "expectations" of...
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IN THEORY...
There are several new indexes at StockCharts.com that everyone should check out. They are our new "Theory" indexes that contain artificial, idealized versions of four important chart patterns - a sawtooth reversal pattern ($THSAW), a sine wave pattern ($THSINE), a "perfect" Elliott Wave pattern ($THEW)...
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%NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE STILL DROPPING
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Last Thursday's message showed the point & figure version of the % NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average in a downside correction. I suggested that the first sign of improvement would be a three-box reversal to a rising X column. We got that this week, but it proved...
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WHAT'S "UUP" WITH THE DOLLAR
by Carl Swenlin,
President and Founder, DecisionPoint.com
While the U.S. Dollar Index didn't do so well Friday, it is getting ready to generate a Trend Model buy signal. Note on the chart below that the 20-EMA is less than a hair away from crossing up through the 50-EMA, which will mechanically generate the buy...
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Energy SPDR Breaks Neckline Support
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Energy SPDR (XLE) has been one of the weakest sectors this month. In fact, the chart shows XLE breaking support from a large Head-and-Shoulders reversal pattern. The left shoulder peaked in March, the head peaked in April and the left shoulder peaked at the end of May. With a...
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Finance and Housing Moving Step-for-Step
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) and the Finance SPDR (XLF) have been moving together the entire year. The indicator window shows XLF in black and ITB in red. Not much difference between these two price patterns. In the main window, ITB is testing support from broken resistance and the 50-62%...
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XLB, XLI AND XLK TEST 2011 SUPPORT LEVELS -- SMH DECLINES TO MARCH LOW -- FINANCE AND BANKING ETFS MAY HOLD THE KEY -- DEFENSIVE SECTORS ARE HOLDING UP THE BEST -- XLP, XLU AND XLV CORRECT AFTER STRONG ADVANCES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
XLB, XLI AND XLK TEST 2011 SUPPORT LEVELS... Link for todays video.
In addition to a number of key indices, several sector SPDRs are testing support from the March lows. These lows are important because stocks declined rather sharply from mid February to mid March. The subsequent surge off the...
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Indicator Summary Turns Negative as Breadth Weakens
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Believe it or not, there was only one downgrade to the indicator summary this week. The AD Volume Lines for the Nasdaq and NYSE broke below their March lows. Admittedly, these indicators barely broke their March lows with Wednesday's sharp decline. This could be an overshoot based on...
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SPY and IWM Form with Spinning Tops as QQQ Hits March Lows
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks remain way oversold and ripe for a bounce in the coming days. On the daily charts, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) formed spinning top candlesticks as both test support from the March lows. QQQ is also testing support here. Spinning tops signal...
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Dell Shows Relative Strength and a Bear Flag
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
While the stock market swooned over the last few weeks, Dell Inc (DELL) held its ground and did not break its late May lows. In fact, the stock has been edging higher the last three weeks. The indicator window shows the Price Relative rising to a new high for 2011....
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STOCK INDEXES ARE TESTING IMPORTANT CHART SUPPORT NEAR 200-DAY AVERAGES AND LOOK OVERSOLD -- THAT COULD GIVE WAY TO A SUMMER BOUNCE -- BOND PRICES ARE NEARING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE -- ANY BOUNCE IN STOCKS AND COMMODITIES MAY DEPEND ON A FIRMER EURO
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
%NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 200-DAY AVERAGE STILL DROPPING... Last Thursday's message showed the point & figure version of the % NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average in a downside correction. I suggested that the first sign of improvement would be a three-box reversal to a rising X column. We...
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SPY Fails to Hold Gap and Forges 13 week Low
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) attempted to reverse course twice, but both surges quickly failed at 130 and the ETF moved sharply lower. Tuesday's surge was followed by a gap down on Wednesday and close below Monday's low. Blame is on Bad news (on...
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Chart of Interest: AMZN, CHK, DAL, KGC, RL, UAL, UTX
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AMZN Firms after Support Break.
CHK Forms Harami with Two Inside Days.
KGC Forms Bull Flag after Surge.
Plus DAL, RL, UAL, UTX
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or...
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Five Stocks Bucking the Bears on the Market Carpet
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks were down rather sharply on Wednesday, but a few were bucking the trend with gains. These can be found by looking for a little green in the Sector Market Carpet. Boston Scientific (BSX), Novellus (NVLS) and Network Appliance (NTAP) are attracting buyers on a big down day.
Click this...
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SPY FILLS TUESDAYS GAP -- MARCH LOWS COMING INTO PLAY FOR QQQ -- BREADTH INDICATORS REFLECT BROAD SELLING PRESSURE -- OIL PLUNGES ON ECONOMIC REPORT AND STRONG DOLLAR -- DOLLAR ETF FORMS HIGHER LOW AS MOMENTUM IMPROVES
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SPY FILLS TUESDAYS GAP ... Link for todays video. Stocks were sharply lower on Wednesday as the risk-off trade returned after Tuesdays sharp advance. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke below Mondays lows with sharp declines on Wednesday. Chart 1 shows SPY failing to...
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Stocks Surge on Big Breadth as Bonds Break Down
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks surged with a broad advance that lifted most boats. Net Advances and Net Advancing Volume on both the Nasdaq and NYSE surged as well. These breadth surges were comparable to the breadth surges seen at the mid March and mid April lows. Also note that SPY formed a Harami...
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All Nasdaq Most Active Stocks are Moving Higher
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks finally caught a bid with the Nasdaq leading the way higher. The image below comes from the Free Charts Page. All Nasdaq most actives are up. 8 of 10 NYSE most actives are up with Citigroup and Bank of America as the only decliners. Users can click the PerfChart...
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SPY Forms Harami in Oversold Territory
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remains oversold, but unable to sustain a bounce. Last week's bounce attempts failed as the ETF moved to new lows on Friday. SPY did manage to firm on Monday with a spinning top. Also notice that the body of the spinning...
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Charts of Interest: AAPL, DOW, GMO, LLL, STEC, WINN
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
AAPL Returns to Support Zone.
GMO Firms at Key Retracement.
STEC Finds Support Near Large Gap.
Plus DOW, LLL, WINN
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all...
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Commodity Index Fund Hits Price and Momentum Resistance
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Commodity Index Fund ($DBC) surged back above 30 in June, but is near resistance from broken support and the 62% retracement mark. Also notice that RSI is trading in its resistance zone (50-60) after becoming overbought. This is a make-or-break area for DBC.
Click this image for a live...
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OIL ETFS BREAK SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINES -- XLE BREAKS NECKLINE SUPPORT WITH LARGE DECLINE -- CVX, SLB AND XOM LEAD ENERGY SPDR LOWER -- WAVE COUNT INDICATES FIFTH OF THE FIFTH FOR S&P 500 -- HAS ABC CORRECTION STARTED OR JUST ENDED?
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
OIL ETFS BREAK SUPPORT WITH SHARP DECLINES... The 12-Month US Oil Fund (USL) and the US Oil Fund (USO) broke short-term support levels with sharp declines on Monday. Friday I wrote about the triple whammy hitting oil as Saudi Arabia increased output, stocks were down and the Dollar was up....
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Risk-Off Trade Remains in Force
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the stock market analysis as stocks became even more oversold on Friday. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opened weak with a gap down and closed weak. The ETF is now down around 5.5% in the last eight days, which compares to the...
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Predefined Scans Page Shows Surge in Bearish Scan Hits
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The Predefined Scans page features color coded bars so users can see when scans are active. Red bars show a decrease in hits. Green bars show an increase in hits. Today's intraday scan shows a sharp increase in the number of stocks making the cut in bearish scans....
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SETTING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR SPY AND QQQ -- AD VOLUME LINES FORM LARGE DOUBLE TOPS -- NASDAQ NET NEW HIGHS TURN NEGATIVE -- DOLLAR SURGES TO FORM HIGHER LOW -- STRENGTH IN THE DOLLAR WEIGHS ON GOLD -- OIL DROPS ON TRIPLE WHAMMY
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
SETTING DOWNSIDE TARGETS FOR SPY AND QQQ... The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is in the midst of a correction within a bigger uptrend. One look at a chart 2 year chart confirms this uptrend. In fact, the decline of the last six weeks looks rather mild when compared...
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Indicator Summary Turns Flat as Decline Takes Toll
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
With a few more downgrades this week, the indicator summary moved to zero. The March decline was enough to turn the indicator summary negative, but this decline was a mere correction within the bigger uptrend. With the indicator summary on the verge of turning negative again, I must wonder if...
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SPY Firms as Intermarket Picture Gets Interesting
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
There is no change in the analysis of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The ETF broke its April low and is now trying to firm around 129-130. After a 4.8% decline in six days, the ETF bounced with a feeble move above 129 on Thursday. A move...
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% NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50 AND 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES CONTINUES TO DROP -- S&P 500 BOUNCES OFF LOWER 100-DAY BOLLINGER BAND -- BUT NEEDS TO CLEAR SOME OVERHEAD RESISTANCE BARRIERS TO SIGNAL END OF CORRECTION
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
% NYSE STOCKS ABOVE 50-DAY MA STILL DROPPING... Nearly a month ago on May 16 I showed the % of NYSE stocks trading over their 50-day moving averages ($NYA50R) dropping below 50% which betrayed a weakening market beneath the surface. As of yesterday, that percentage had dropped to 23% which is the...
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Less Selling Pressure, But No Buying Pressure
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Stocks tried to firm again on Wednesday, but buying pressure remains weak or non-existent. Most of this firmness stems from less selling pressure. SPY is down around 4.8% the last six days as it moved below its April low. This makes it short-term oversold. At this point, the most...
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Charts: BRCM, CB, CHK, DELL, ISRG, MMC, MMM, NBR, TEVA
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Downside Volume Increases for CB.
MMM Firms at Key Retracement.
TEVA Forms Bull Flag.
Plus BRCM,CHK,DELL,ISRG,MMC,NBR
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We...
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Internet ETF Forms Spinning Top Near Key Retracement
by Arthur Hill,
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
The FirstTrust Internet ETF (FDN) has been moving lower with the rest of the market, but firmed the last two days. A doji formed on Tuesday and a small spinning top on Wednesday. This firmness is also occurring near the 62% retracement mark and the ETF is short-term oversold.
Click...
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DOW INDUSTRIALS SPDR TESTS APRIL LOWS -- SEMIS AND NETWORKING ETFS LEAD TECH SECTOR LOWER -- GOLD MINERS ETFS TEST MAJOR SUPPORT LEVELS -- METALS & MINING SPDR NEARS 2011 LOWS -- AGRICULTURE ETF CONSOLIDATES AT SUPPORT
by John Murphy,
Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
DOW INDUSTRIALS SPDR TESTS APRIL LOWS... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) is clearly in a downtrend since early May. How far will this decline extend? The April lows mark the first test and the March lows mark the second test. Chart 1 shows DIA trying to...
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