It all started with the Intel earnings effect five days ago as the Semiconductor HOLDRS (SMH) gapped above 35. After stalling for two days, the ETF continued hiher and is now challenging the February-March highs. Semis are starting to show relative strength again and this bodes well for techs. Click... READ MORE
BASE METALS ETF STALLING AS SPY HITS NEW HIGH... CandleGlance charts make it easy view and compare the key intermarket areas. I realize that these charts are small and not well suited for detailed analysis. These represent another charting alternative available at StockCharts.com. Details on creating these charts can... READ MORE
Please note that Thursday's commentary will be posted a little later in the morning (between 9 and 10AM ET). With a strong open and strong close, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above neckline resistance that extends from late February to early April. This is another... READ MORE
Is this bounce for real or just another dead-cat bounce? The Amex Airline Index ($XAL) hit the 62% retracement area in mid April and surged above the wedge trendline on Tuesday. Also notice that MACD formed a bullish divergence and moved above its signal line. Things are looking up for... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES REACH THREE-YEAR HIGHS ... All three major stock indexes cleared chart resistance to resume their uptrends. As an added bonus, volume also rose on the price gains. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 SPDRs clearing the neckline on the "inverse head and shoulders" that Arthur... READ MORE
SILVER AND SILVER STOCKS OPEN LOWER ... As a follow-up to my earlier message on the likelihood that silver is peaking, the first three charts show silver assets opening lower today. The 15-minute bars in Chart 1 show Silver iShares trading below yesterday's intra-day low at 44.53. That... READ MORE
OVERBOUGHT SILVER REACHES 1980 PEAK ... We've been enthusiastically bullish on precious metals and silver in particular. The spectacular silver rally now looks dangerously overextended. In addition, it has reached its 1980 high at $50 as shown in Chart 1. The monthly RSI line shows silver to be at... READ MORE
ARO Forms Dark Cloud at Resistance. GE Form Huge Bearish Engulfing. JPM Consolidates at Key Support. Plus APC,IMN,LMT,MSFT,RSH and UIS. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock... READ MORE
It could be a big week for bonds. The Fed meets this week with a policy statement scheduled at 12:30PM ET. This is earlier than normal because Bernanke is holding a press conference later in the afternoon. Jeeze, like we don't have enough excitement already. So now... READ MORE
SPY CHALLENGES NECKLINE RESISTANCE... Link for todays video. With last weeks surge back to the February highs, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has traced out an inverse head-and-shoulders. These patterns can form as continuation or reversal patterns. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern after an extended advance is viewed as... READ MORE
Even though stocks are up over the last 30 trading days, sector leadership leaves something to be desired. The Finance is badly lagging, while the materials and energy sectors are leading. Also notice that the healthcare and consumer staples show relative strength. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is tracing out a clear inverse head-and-shoulders pattern over the last 2-3 months. The shoulders feature equal lows around 129.5 and the highs in the 133-134 area mark neckline resistance. Notice how the right shoulder also formed a... READ MORE
The predefined scans page at StockCharts.com is updated throughout the day. Checking just after the open is an easy way to spot early movers, both up and down. The runaway gap-up scan featured over 5 NYSE stocks and 16 Nasdaq stocks at 10:14AM ET. Among these runaway gaps,... READ MORE
TRIANGLE FORMATION IS BEARISH FOR THE DOLLAR... My market message from two Thursdays ago (April 7) showed a bearish triangle forming on the monthly chart of the US Dollar Index. Chart 1 is an updated version of that chart and shows the two converging trendlines that have been forming since... READ MORE
The short-term trend is now up with a flag breakout and big gap. On the daily chart, an inverse head-and-shoulders is taking shape now that the right shoulder low has formed a reaction low near the left shoulder low. The neckline resistance zone resides around 133-134, which is where SPY... READ MORE
JNPR Surges off Retracement Zone. MBI Forges a Bear Trap. XRX Breaks Flag Resistance. Plus BBT, DF, ILMN, MBI, STT, TXN ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The hammer and gap play is everywhere this week. It started with an intraday recovery on Monday and continued with a gap-surge on Wednesday. QLGC formed such a combo over the last three days and broke above the early April trendline. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
QQQ FOLLOWS THROUGH ON BIG HAMMER... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) followed Mondays hammer with a small gain on Tuesday and a big gap on Wednesday. This massive hammer was featured in Mondays Market Message. Techs led the charge on Wednesday with QQQ jumping over 2%... READ MORE
The bulls simply refuse to buckle. Despite a gap down on Monday and sharp decline Monday morning, stocks rebounded on Monday afternoon and continued strong on Tuesday. The ability to immediately recover should serve notice to the bears. QQQ formed a massive hammer on Monday and closed strong on Tuesday.... READ MORE
The S&P Sector Market Carpet provides a colorful snapshot of sector performance over a given timeframe. The screen grab below shows a 5-day Price Performance Market Carpet. Stocks in the materials sector are up an average of 1.7% the last five days (leading). Stocks in the technology... READ MORE
Before diving headfirst into some Elliott wave counts, please note that the overall trends take precedent. The overall trend on the daily chart (medium-term) remains up and the overall trend on the 60-minute chart (short-term) remains down. There are, at least, two Elliott counts possible on the S&P... READ MORE
ADBE Maintains Tight Consolidation. AXP Challenges Resistance. PNRA Forms Bear Flag. Plus CRM,DHI,GERN and SHLD. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to... READ MORE
Apple (AAPL) declined into its support zone with a close below 330 on Friday. After a weak open and further weakness early Monday, the stock moved higher and closed strong to firm a piercing line. This bullish candlestick reversal is featured on the predefined scans page. Also notice that volume... READ MORE
MARKETS MOVING BACK TOWARDS RISK-OFF TRADE... Link for todays video. The risk-off trade is making a comeback. A risk-on environment favors stocks, commodities (economic growth) and the Euro (debt stability). Conversely, a risk-off environment favors Treasuries (weak economy) and the Dollar (safety). Stocks and commodities perform poorly in a risk-off... READ MORE
There are a few negatives working against the stock market right now. First, bonds have been rising and yields falling - even though inflationary pressures appear to be building. Despite gold and the Inflation Indexed Bond ETF (TIP) moving to new 2011 highs last week, normal bonds were also strong.... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! We get lots of great feedback from our users and I review much of it. Over the years, certain patterns emerge from the messages we get. Whenever possible we try to update our website to make things as easy to use as possible, but there are limits... READ MORE
My Tuesday message talked about how sectors rotate near market tops. I explained that market leadership by materials and energy (which carries inflationary expectations) is often a sign of market that's in need of a correction or a consolidation. I also explained that money coming out of those... READ MORE
If you plot the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO - 12,26,9) on an index or individual stock chart next to the MACD (12,26,9), you'll find that they appear to be identical. Let's use Wynn Resorts (WYNN) as an example. Below I show how... READ MORE
The recent gold price rally to new highs has paled in comparison with silver's seemingly parabolic move higher. While many "johnny come latelys" play in the silver pit, we are rather interested in the manner in which the Gold Stocks ETF (GDX) has performed relative to... READ MORE
It is a rule-of-thumb that the average bull/bear cycle lasts about four years trough to trough -- 2.5 years of bull market followed by 1.5 years of bear market. Like most of these kinds of rules, it is good to keep them in mind, but don'... READ MORE
The positive relationship between the Inflation Indexed Bond ETF (TIP) and the Gold SPDR (GLD) went through a rough patch in December-January, but got back on track the last two month. First, note that both remain in clear uptrends. The chart below shows TIP (red) and GLD (black) surging to... READ MORE
Intuit (INTU), the maker of Turbo Tax Software, appears to like tax day. The stock broke above wedge resistance with a long white candlestick on Thursday and hit a 52-week high on Friday, April 15th. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN FINANCE AND CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY PRECEDED 2007 PEAK... Link for todays video. The performance of small-caps and the four offensive sectors is important to the health of the market. Small-caps represent domestic oriented companies that are more sensitive to the economy. The offensive sectors represent four distinct parts... READ MORE
The indicator summary is weighed down by relative weakness in the Nasdaq and some key sectors. First, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite since early January. Second, the Nasdaq AD Line and AD Volume Line are weaker than the NYSE AD Line and AD Volume Line. Third, the... READ MORE
SPY managed to open weak and close strong, but has yet to fill Tuesday's gap and reverse the short-term downtrend. For now, the island reversal remains in play and has yet to be proven otherwise. CCI continues to drift lower and has yet to turn up. I overlaid... READ MORE
After hitting the bullish engulfing scan on Tuesday, Time Warner is set to appear on the hammer scan for Thursday. The stock surged in February and then retraced around 50% with a decline to the 35 area. The stock has been firming in this area since mid March and a... READ MORE
THE SECTOR ROTATION MODEL ... My Tuesday message talked about how sectors rotate near market tops. I explained that market leadership by materials and energy (which carries inflationary expectations) is often a sign of market that's in need of a correction or a consolidation. I also explained that money... READ MORE
The big trend on the daily chart is up as prices move from the lower left to the upper right. SPY became overbought after a big surge back to the February high and backed off this level the last four days. The ETF has actually closed lower five days in... READ MORE
ADBE Forms Tight Consolidation. DOX Breaks Wedge Resistance with Volume. PAYX Stalls Near Retracement Resistance. Plus ADM, GS, WCRX ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
For the second time in three months, Dell Inc (DELL) surged above 15 with big volume. The stock pulled back to broken resistance and bounced off support twice in mid March and early April. Today's big surge solidifies support and suggests that DELL has begun a bigger uptrend.... READ MORE