After a positive run from September 3rd, the indicator summary turned negative this week with six indicator downgrades. At this point, I still view the recent decline as a correction within a bigger uptrend. However, we do not know how this correction will unfold or how long it will last.... READ MORE
The analysis in this daily report on Art's Charts is short-term oriented, which can be from a few days to a few weeks. Medium and long-term analysis can be found in the Market Message, which is produced by John Murphy and myself. The Friday indicator summary on Art&... READ MORE
After breaking resistance with a surge in early February, the Retail SPDR (XRT) returned to the breakout with a decline the last few weeks. This decline is tracing out a falling wedge pattern. Support is at hand from broken resistance, but a move above wedge resistance is needed to reverse... READ MORE
DOLLAR INDEX DROPS TO THREE-YEAR LOW... Traders continue to sell the U.S. Dollar. In yesterday's trading, the dollar fell to a 20-year low against the Japanese yen. Today, it's falling against everything else. More importantly, the greenback is breaking important support levels. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
AMGN Holds Trendline Break. ANF Forms Small Pennant. FFIV Battles Support. Plus DHI, NVDA and OLN. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think... READ MORE
There is no change to the short-term evidence, which remains bearish. However, the major index ETFs are oversold again and near support levels that could give way to a bounce. The first chart shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) hitting the 62% retracement mark and support from broken resistance around... READ MORE
John Murphy's Intermarket Study PerfChart shows money moving out of stocks and commodities over the last two weeks. Weakness in the CRB Index gave a little lift to the Dollar and a flight-to-safety provided a serious lift for bonds. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. Stocks came under selling pressure again on Wednesday. All sectors were down with finance and technology leading the way. Chart 1 shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) breaking the support zone in the 16.25 area with a sharp decline the... READ MORE
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opened with a huge gap down, but rallied after this gap to form a long white candlestick. Notice that the ETF opened in the 38-50% retracement zone and closed above the 38% retracement mark. This move reinforces the 128 area as the first... READ MORE
The Home Construction iShares (ITB) opened weak with a gap below 13, but recovered its early losses and closed with a 1.07% gain on the day. Not bad considering the circumstances. The overall trend since mid January remains down, but there is a big support battle raging around 13.... READ MORE
JAPAN STOCKS LEAD WORLD LOWER... More shocks coming from Japan continue to unsettle global markets. A 10% plunge in Japanese shares has led other global stock markets lower around the world. Commodity prices are coming under pressure as well. Even precious metals are selling off. Treasury bonds are the day&... READ MORE
There is no change in the overall assessment. The majority of short-term evidence remains bearish. Bearish evidence started building when RSI on the 30-minute chart plunged below 30 on February 22nd. Bearish evidence expanded as Nasdaq breadth indicators turned bearish on February 23rd and NYSE indicator followed suit on March... READ MORE
Charts: AWR Bounces off Support. ERTS Forms Bull Wedge. WHR Forms Bear Flag. Plus HOG, IR, SCMR, THQI and USG ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We... READ MORE
QQQQ STALLS NEAR JANUARY-FEBRUARY SUPPORT ... Link for todays video. After a three-prong decline from 59 to 56, chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) finding support with a bullish engulfing on Friday and indecision on Monday. Support in the 55.5-56 zone stems from the late January lows and... READ MORE
Unsurprisingly, the ProShares Short Dow 30 Fund (DOG) moved lower as the market trended higher from September to February. As with November, the ETF is making another reversal attempt as it broke the late August trendline and Aroon(Up) surged above 90. This positive develop remains in force as long... READ MORE
The majority of the short-term evidence remains bearish. Bearish evidence started building when RSI on the 30-minute chart plunged below 30 on February 22nd. Despite a few sharp bounces, the indicator never made it back above 65 and remains in bear mode. Bearish evidence expanded when short-term breadth broke down... READ MORE
After a sharp decline the first four days of the week, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) quickly firmed on Friday with a bullish engulfing taking shape Friday afternoon (1:18PM). Also note that this pattern formed with a low at the 62% retracement mark. Despite the promise for a bounce,... READ MORE
RETAIL SPDR FORMS PENNANT CONSOLIDATION... Link for todays video. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 1% in February for the eighth straight monthly gain. Not a bad streak at all. On a monthly basis, the Retail SPDR (XRT) has risen 6 of the last 8 months (March excluded)... READ MORE
The indicator summary is a medium-term vehicle designed to measure an array of indicators. The sum total identifies periods of strength when positive and weakness when negative. This sum total is not a leading indicator and not immune to whipsaws. The sum total will not turn negative until there is... READ MORE
The final piece of the short-term puzzle finally came through as SPY broke support with a gap and sharp decline. RSI was already in bear mode after a plunge below 30 and three failures below 70. Breadth turned bearish on Monday as the 10-day SMAs for Net Advances (NYSE/Nasdaq)... READ MORE
Stocks are down sharply as of this writing, but there are a few bucking the trend with gains. Chartists can find such rogue stocks with the Sector Market Carpet. The green squares show the gainers and the top five are listed to the right. Starbucks is leading with break above... READ MORE
LONG-TERM CHARTS SHOWED OVERBOUGHT CONDITION ... Today's sharp selloff in stocks and commodities certainly suggests that the market has entered into a downside correction. The number of 50-day moving averages being broken by most global stocks indexes (including those in the U.S.) has given the first short-term sell... READ MORE
FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD THE DECLINE... Stock selling started in foreign markets and is spilling over to the U.S. For the first time in months, a number of 50-day averages are being broken which isn't a good sign. Chart 1 shows Emerging Market iShares (EEM) falling back below... READ MORE
There appear to be some changes afoot in the intermarket arena that could have a negative effect on stocks. We already know about the surge in oil and commodity prices. With a sharp decline on Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) failed to hold last week's surge and... READ MORE
CL Breaks Surges above Wedge Trendline. IMN Forms Bullish Consolidation. SPG Consolidates after Sharp Decline. Plus JNJ and LIFE. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all... READ MORE
CandleGlance charts provide a quick group snapshot. The screenshot comes from the S&P Sector SPDR CandleGlance group. Only four of the nine are shown. Click the image to see all. The Utilities SPDR (XLU) and the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) are clearly showing relative strength with a surge the... READ MORE
TECHS, INDUSTRIALS AND FINANCE LAG FOR FOUR WEEKS... Link for todays video. The technology, industrials and finance sectors led the market higher to start the year, but these four turned into laggards the last four weeks. The first S&P Sector PerfChart shows the nine sector SPDRs and the... READ MORE
Even though the bulk of the short-term evidence has shifted to the bears, the bulls refuse to give way as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) holds support. Four out of four breadth indicators moved below their bearish thresholds. RSI on the 60-minute chart plunged below 30 in late... READ MORE
There are 17 P&F related scans on the pre-defined scans page. Of the major patterns shown below, the first four patterns are bullish and the second four are bearish. Currently, there are over 250 stocks with bullish Triple Top Alerts and over 550 stocks with bullish Ascending Triple... READ MORE
NEW INTEREST IN DIVIDEND PAYING STOCKS... I wrote a Janury 13 message entitled: "DIVIDEND APPRECIATION ETFS OFFER CONSERVATIVE ENTRY FOR NERVOUS BOND HOLDERS". Two such ETFS that I showed were Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (VIG) and the DJ Dividend Index iShares (DVY). As I explained in that earlier piece,... READ MORE
With another day of selling pressure, the 10-day SMAs for the NYSE Net Advances ($NYAD) and NYSE Net Advancing Volume ($NYUD) moved below -100. These indicators now join the 10-day SMAs for Nasdaq Net Advances ($NAAD) and Nasdaq Net Advancing Volume ($NAUD) with bearish signals. Keep in mind that this... READ MORE
AA Forms Bearish Pennant. ANF Fails at Resistance, BBBY Forms Bearish Flag. Plus ANN, BAC, BBBY, GME, JCOM, MCHP, S and STEC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
Stocks were broadly lower on Monday, but a few bucked the trend with gains. Simply scanning for stocks that gained on a day like today will reveal those showing some relative strength. The chart below shows Iron Mountain (IRM) hitting support from the October trendline and broken resistance zone. The... READ MORE
LARGE-TECHS AND SMALL-CAPS LEAD MARKET LOWER... Link for todays video. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) led the major index ETFs lower on Monday. Chart 1 shows QQQQ meeting resistance from the 22-February gap over the last two weeks. The ETF gapped up and closed above... READ MORE
One must wonder how stocks can continue to gain in the current environment. Oil, gold and the Euro are going to the moon. Bonds broke down last week to signal a resumption of their long-term downtrend, which means interest rates are heading higher. Perhaps QE2 and the Fed's... READ MORE
In my Tuesday message, I agreed with the Fed chairman that commodity prices were rising against all currencies. That doesn't mean, however, that the falling U.S. Dollar isn't a major contributor to rising commodities. After all, global commodities are priced in dollars. Chart 3 shows... READ MORE
(This is an excerpt from Friday's blog for Decision Point subscribers.) The U.S. Dollar Index is in immediate danger again, so lets take a close look at charts from all three time frames, beginning with the daily bar chart. The most important feature on the chart is... READ MORE
The recent gold price rally to new highs hasn't been impressive when compared to silver's sharp rally; but then again, the race may not always go to the rabbit. And it is this thought that has prompted us to consider the horridly lagging gold stocks (GDX)... READ MORE
It's hard to believe it's been two years since that infamous 2009 March bottom. I'm going to focus on the NASDAQ for purposes of today's article. Let's take a quick look at the advance since late August 2010 to gain... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! (This is a repeat of an article I wrote in 2007. Seems like now is a great time to review its message. - Chip) Last month I had the pleasure of sitting in on several local Technical Analaysis User Groups and seeing how they used many different... READ MORE