It's hard to believe another year is coming to an end. Outside of a few scary weeks, the stock market performed well in 2010 and heads toward 2011 with a lot of bullish momentum. Complacency is a short-term issue that we dealt with last week and will continue... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! Another year has come and gone. It seems like only yesterday that we were celebrating the start of the decade (heck, it seems like only yesterday we were celebrating the start of the new millennium!) This year one of the things we focused on here at StockCharts... READ MORE
The US Dollar Index ($USD) remains within a long-term trading range, but the swing within that range is up after the November breakout. More importantly, the breakout is holding and rising rates are boosting the greenback. The first chart shows the US Dollar Index with resistance in the 88-89 area... READ MORE
Bonds are in a "waterfall" decline, and some people are beginning to wonder where the bottom will be. A subscriber comments: "I'm always anxious to see the reaction time of the DP Trend Model as compared to what I look for in the momentum of... READ MORE
After a big gap down in July, Affymetrix began the long process of digesting this big loss. A long triangle consolidation formed over the last five months. December has been good to the stock with a steady advance and breakout over the last two days. Click this image for a... READ MORE
DOLLAR HOLDS SUPPORT TO KEEP BREAKOUT ALIVE... Link for todays video. The US Dollar Fund (UUP) took a hard hit at the beginning of December, but ultimately held support and formed a potentially bullish wedge the last few weeks. Before looking at daily price action, lets review the long-term trend... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary. Stocks stalled this week, but held their gains and remain in uptrends overall. Breadth has started to wane as the NYSE AD Line failed to break above its November high. However, the other three breadth lines broke above their November highs (Nasdaq... READ MORE
There is no much change on the daily chart. SPY remains overbought with a few sentiment indicators showing excessive bullishness and breadth waning. The VIX is trading at low levels and in a long-term support zone, the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC) shows excessive bullishness and the NYSE AD... READ MORE
The Utilities SPDR (XLU) is underperforming the broader market as it battles resistance from broken support. Also notice that a rising wedge formed the last few weeks. A break below wedge support would signal a continuation of the downtrend that has been in place since late October. Click this image... READ MORE
HOUSING INDEXES TURN UP ... We've written several messages of late about the recent upturn in financial stocks that had been lagging behind the rest of the market since the spring. I expressed the view that a sustained upturn in the stock market was unlikely without some help from... READ MORE
The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) broke wedge support as Forex traders returned to focus on Euro negatives (debt). This does not mean the Dollar has solved its problems. Merely, the focus has shifted back to the Euro. The chart below shows the flag breakout failing after just two days. A... READ MORE
$ADBE Shows Relative Weakness. $DELL Breaks Wedge Support. $MYL Breaks Resistance. Plus $FRX, $GILD, $PSA. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE SPDR CHALLENGES NOVEMBER HIGH... Link for todays video. The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) has been lagging the market most of the year, but may be coming back to life with a surge over the last 2 1/2 weeks. Last week I wrote about the breakout in the iShares DJ... READ MORE
With a surge in NYSE new 52-week lows this week, the Hindenburg Omen has triggered once again. The last such signal was in mid August. There is some debate on the exact criteria and thresholds. The chart below details the criteria set forth from James Miekka. According to Miekka, the... READ MORE
SPY remains overbought with a few sentiment indicators showing excessive bullishness, but there are simply no signs of signficant selling pressure. With yearend approaching and seasonal patterns largely bullish, stocks could simply remain overbought and hold their uptrends. I am concerned with the sharp rise in interest rates, but stocks... READ MORE
Amgen is off to the races today with a gap and breakout on big volume. This gap comes after the November decline and looks like a breakaway gap. High volume validates this move and the gap/breakout is bullish as long as it holds. Click this image for a live... READ MORE
EVEN THE FIVE-YEAR HAS TURNED UP ... A month ago (November 9) I showed the 30-Year T-Bond Yield (TYX) exceeding its 200-day moving average, and warned that carried bad news for the bond market. Chart 1 shows the TYX climbing to a new seven-month high. Earlier this month the 10-Year Treasury... READ MORE
The CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC) is nearing an extreme that coincided with the January and April peaks. Before looking at the details, keep in mind that market sentiment is hard to pin down. First, there are many ways to measure sentiment (VIX, Put-Call Ratio, Advisor Sentiment). Second, the... READ MORE
AEO Forms Pennant at Key Support. HPQ Shows Relative Weakness. RTN Leads Weak Defense Group Lower. Plus CL, LLL, QLGC, WFR ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise)... READ MORE
The Dollar is getting hammered on Monday with most other currencies moving higher. CandleGlance charts provide an easy way to reveal the leaders. The image below shows four or the 10 Candleglance currency charts. The Euro Currency Trust (FXE) is the clear leader with a 1.86% gain. Click on... READ MORE
DOW AND NY COMPOSITE EXCEED NOVEMBER HIGHS... Link for todays video. Slowly, but surely, the major indices are moving above their November highs. Small-caps started as the Russell 2000 broke its early November high on December 1st. The Nasdaq followed suit with a breakout last week. Today, the Dow Industrials... READ MORE
Even though the Euro declined last week, stocks remained strong and closed near their highs for the week. The first chart shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) peaking around 133.5 and falling below 132 last week. The decline is slow and the pattern looks like a falling flag. This... READ MORE
The Homebuilders SPDR and the Home Construction iShares (ITB) both surged this week and we are also seeing strength in Lumber ($LUMBER). On one hand, this increases building costs. On the other hand, it shows an increase in demand and this could mean more construction. The late November low marks... READ MORE
STOCHRSI HOLDS IN BULL ZONE FOR DIA... Link for todays video. The Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) remains in a long-term uptrend and momentum is bullish overall. Chart 1 shows the ETF stalling around 110-115 the last few weeks, but there are no signs of weakness yet. I would mark first... READ MORE
There is no change in the indicator summary. Stocks held their gains this week and there was not much movement. Led by strength in the finance sector, the NYSE AD Volume Line moved above its November high. The November lows mark key support for the AD Lines and AD Volume... READ MORE
I am still watching the falling flag in the Euro. A falling Euro is potentially negative for stocks and the short-term trend is clearly down as long as the flag falls. On the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) chart, a move above 132.5 would break flag resistance and provide the... READ MORE
While the Networking iShares (IGN) trades near a 52-week high, Cisco (CSCO) flounders near a 52-week low. Who would have thunk it? Cisco is one of the top ten components in this ETF. This year's decline puts the stock at an interesting juncture: a key retracement on the... READ MORE
FINANCIALS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEW LEADERSHIP... Arthur Hill and myself have been writing over the last month about new signs of leadership in the financial sector. Over the last week, financials have been the market's strongest group (after being the weakest since the spring). Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
A surge in interest rates should be bullish for the Dollar, but the Dollar barely moved on Wednesday and Forex vigilantes could turn their sites on the Dollar. As noted in Wednesday's market message, bonds plunged because proposed legislation in DC would increase spending and decrease revenues. While... READ MORE
EK bounces on uptick in volume. GILD bounces off broken resistance. MOT breaks wedge resistance. Plus BSX, KFT, MOT, PEP. See the About Page for details on the commentaries in Art's Charts. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation... READ MORE
FINANCE ETF AND REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXTEND ON BREAKOUTS... Link for todays video. The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) both broke resistance last week and continued higher on Wednesday. These two were featured with daily charts in the December 1st Market Message as they gapped through... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials remains in an uptrend overall, but the senior Average is hitting some resistance from the November highs just above 11400. It is possible that a trading range takes shape after the sharp advance from 10000 to 11400. Key support is based on the lows extending from mid... READ MORE
While the relationship is not perfect, stocks and the Euro still have a pretty good positive correlation. This means both rise and fall together. The clear discrepancy is from 23-Nov to 30-Nov when the Euro fell sharply and SPY held support from its mid November lows. In a sense, stocks... READ MORE
BOND ETFS CONTINUE TO DROP ... With the stock market continuing its climb, money is flowing out of the fixed income market. As I explained in last Thursday's message, Treasuries are among the worst performers (especially the long bond). Charts 1 and 2 show the recent deterioration in two... READ MORE
Despite a bounce the last five days, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) remains an underperformer since September. Notice how the price relative peaked and moved lower the last 3 months. On the price chart, the ETF is running into resistance from broken support around 31.30. Click this image for a... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY formed a very small candlestick with the narrowest range in over a week. The most popular narrow range indicators are NR-4 and NR-7, which refer to the narrowest high-low range in four or seven days. A narrow range shows indecision that can sometimes foreshadow a... READ MORE
Natural Gas surges as cold hits $NATGAS. CHK bounces off support. NXY challenges resistance. Plus DLTR, EBAY, SUSS. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need... READ MORE
Except for technology, the offensive sectors are leading the market over the last two weeks. Relative to the S&P 500, consumer discretionary, industrials and finance are all positive on this relative strength PerfChart. Utilities, consumer staples and healthcare, which make up the defensive sectors are lagging. Click this... READ MORE
BROKEN RESISTANCE LEVELS TURN INTO FIRST SUPPORT... Link for todays video. With more than a few breakouts last week, many charts show resistance levels that now become the first support levels to watch. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis: broken resistance turns into support. Once this overhead supply... READ MORE
The positive correlation between stocks and the Euro remains in place. The Euro got an oversold bounce last week and this helped propel stocks higher. Strong economic numbers on Wednesday also helped the bullish cause. Even though the Euro is getting a bounce, rising interest rates in the US and... READ MORE