A review of my short-term indicators confirms short-term uptrend, but there are some signs that the advancing is tiring. In particular, the 10-day SMA for Net Advancing Volume shows some weakness over the last two weeks. The charts below show this indicator for the NYSE and Nasdaq. The green line... READ MORE
The Technology ETF (XLK) has been consolidating the last two weeks with a small inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern is best viewed using intraday charts. Neckline resistance resides around 23.3-23.5 and the ETF is testing this area for the fourth time since 27-Oct. A breakout would signal a... READ MORE
Survey data is often used to measure extremes in bullish sentiment or bearish sentiment. It is bearish when too many respondents are bullish and bullish when too many are bearish. These surveys spend most of their time between bullish and bearish extremes (i.e. without signals). The AAII survey and... READ MORE
DOW INDUSTRIALS SPDR AND NASDAQ 100 ETF NEAR APRIL HIGHS... Link for todays video. The uptrends remains in place for the major index ETFs, but the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) are nearing resistance from their April highs. After closing up five of the last... READ MORE
Alcoa is showing upside leadership with a surge and break above short-term resistance the last few days. Upside volume has also been impressive. The charts below come from the Dow CandleGlance page, which shows small candlestick charts for all 30 Dow components. Click this image for a live chart... READ MORE
The indicator summary remains positive, but there are a couple of concerns. First, relative weakness in the finance cast a cloud over the current advance. Second, the Nasdaq has been underperforming the NY Composite the last two weeks. This may be just a pullback. Third, the Dow Industrials SPDR and... READ MORE
After a surge on Tuesday, Applied Materials (AMAT) stalled on Wednesday to firm an inside day and harami. This pattern extended on Thursday as the stock again traded within Tuesday's range. A consolidation within an 5-week uptrend is forming. Watch the boundaries for the next signal. Click this... READ MORE
OVERSOLD DOLLAR BOUNCES... The steep drop in the U.S. Dollar over the past two months has resulted in the inevitable oversold condition. One of the best illustrators of that oversold condition is the 14-day RSI which is the green line in chart 1. An oversold reading exists when the... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart so I will go directly to the 60-minute chart. Whether or not SPY holds its breakout depends on the market's reaction to the employment report. The news is not what is important here. It is the market's reaction... READ MORE
QQQQ SHOWS RELATIVE WEAKNESS WITH SHORTFALL... Link for todays video. Big techs are showing relative weakness this week as the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) lags other major index ETFs. The Dow SPDR, S&P 500 SPDR and Russell 2000 ETF all broke above their September highs on Tuesday, but... READ MORE
The risk-on trade remains alive and well in October. As the Perfchart below shows, stocks, oil and gold are strong, while bonds and the Dollar are weak. The relationships reflect a market that is embracing risk. Strength in the Dollar and bonds would start to suggest otherwise. Click this image... READ MORE
ADSK forms small descending triangle. ARO breaks out on good volume. AN tests support, DDS underperforms within consolidation. ETR shows weakness with expanding volume. GILD forms bull flag near resistance. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold... READ MORE
On the daily chart, SPY broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. These developments affirmed the medium-term uptrend and reinforced short-term support around 113. The bulls are on firm footing as long as this breakout holds. I still have the ABC correction in the... READ MORE
When it comes to stocks, it's all about the Dollar the last four weeks. The chart below shows the Euro Currency Trust (FXE) rising along side the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The bottom window shows the Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) falling. A weak Dollar makes US... READ MORE
BIGGER IS BETTER IN THE OIL PATCH... This morning's message showed the upside breakout in the Energy SPDR (XLE) which is one of the day's strongest groups. [Arthur Hill described the initial bullish breakout in the XLE last week and correctly forecast higher energy prices]. I... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE OFF CHART SUPPORT... Global stocks and commodities are off to a strong start today. U.S. stocks are following the lead of rising foreign shares. Today could be an important day for U.S. stocks if the market can hold and build onto this morning's... READ MORE
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) broke above range resistance with a gap and long white candlestick on Tuesday. This move clearly keeps the uptrend alive. SPY broke above its summer highs in late September and this breakout held. Even though the ABC correction was... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: CSCO, DDS, ERTS, FITB, MI, STT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading... READ MORE
There is no change in the daily chart analysis. An ABC correction could be taking shape, but there is no confirmation because the short-term trend remains up. A short-term trend reversal is needed for the earliest possible indication that a bigger decline is starting. On the 60-minute chart, SPY is... READ MORE
STOCHRSI TURNS SHORT-TERM BEARISH FOR THE NASDAQ ... A correction or consolidation period could be in store as the Nasdaq comes off overbought conditions in September. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq surging around 13% in September and breaking above its summer high. With a 1.11% decline today, the index is... READ MORE
With a move below last week's lows, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke below consolidation support and StochRSI became oversold for the first time since late August. This oversold reading looks like a sign of weakness because it is occurring along side the support break. Click this image... READ MORE
The NYSE AD Volume Line moved to a new high last week, but the Nasdaq AD Volume Line failed to exceed its prior high and traded flat. We also saw a little relative weakness in the Nasdaq and techs relative to the broader market last week. The 23-Sept lows now... READ MORE
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! (Here's an article I wrote back in 2007. We've gotten several questions about this topic recently, so I thought I'd re-print this now. Enjoy! - Chip) Mary W. writes "I'd like to see how much above or below... READ MORE
Great question. There are as many arguments saying "no" as there are those saying "yes". Who do you believe? In August, our major indices were tumbling and it seemed like every media outlet was touting our doom and gloom. By the end of September, psychologically it... READ MORE
The S&P 500 rally off the late-August lows continues apace, although it would appear that it is stalling and a correction at a minimum is warranted. There are many who point to the 200-day moving average breakout and the "head & shoulders" neckline being pierced to... READ MORE
According to the Investment Company Institute Annual Mutual Fund Shareholder Tracking Survey, shareholders' willingness to take "substantial or above average risk" has not recovered since the beginning of the financial crisis started in 2008. (Click here to read the entire article.) The chart below shows that there... READ MORE
Oil finally started making up for lost time. Despite strength in stocks and weakness in the Dollar throughout September, oil remained below its mid September high the latter part of the month. Broken support around 34 turned into resistance and was holding. Things suddenly changed as the USO Oil Fund... READ MORE
QQQQ, SPY AND XLY FORM SMALL CONSOLIDATION PATTERNS ... Link for todays video. With stocks trading flat the entire week, consolidation patterns formed in a number of key ETFs. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) surging above its summer highs and then consolidating around 49 this week. QQQQ gapped... READ MORE
The bearish engulfing scan on the pre-defined scans page at StockCharts.com featured 105 Nasdaq stocks and 177 NYSE stocks. The chart below shows EBAY with a rather large bearish engulfing pattern on Thursday. Trendline support is set at 24. Follow through below this level would confirm the bearish engulfing.... READ MORE
There is still no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114-115 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline... READ MORE
The indicator summary has been positive for almost a full month. While there are no signs of medium-term weakness, there are some signs of short-term fatigue setting into the market. First, the Russell 2000 ETF is still battling resistance from its summer highs. Second, the Finance SPDR failed at resistance... READ MORE
Despite the sharp September rally, the Nasdaq Bullish% Index ($BPCOMPQ) remains stuck in a consolidation and has yet to break its summer highs. The Bullish Percent Index broke support with the May decline and needs to break above current resistance to negate the current P&F sell signal. Click... READ MORE
The Dow Industrials SPDR(DIA) signaled indecision on Wednesday with a small doji. Wednesday marks the fourth straight close in the 108-109 area. Doji can sometimes foreshadow a reversal, such as in early August. Alternatively, doji can simply mark a rest in the uptrend, such as mid September. Click this... READ MORE
STOCKS STALL, BUT NO SIGNS OF WEAKNESS YET... Link for todays video. Stocks finished mixed on Wednesday with large-caps edging lower, small-caps edging higher and the Nasdaqs finishing fractionally lower. Chart 1 shows the NY Composite ($NYA) stalling around 7300 on Wednesday. The overall trend is clearly up with a... READ MORE
There is no change on the daily chart. SPY continues to stall around 114 and has yet to break support. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. SPY is also near channel resistance and overbought. The upper trendline of... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: ADM, AN, ASEI, CME, FITB, HCBK, HSY, LSI, PLCM --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it... READ MORE
The Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Energy SPDR (XLE) are the only two sectors that have yet to break their summer highs. XLE is close as it works its way higher after a pennant breakout seven days ago. With this advance, the ETF is now trading at the upper trendline... READ MORE
NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX RESUMES UPTREND ON RISING VOLUME -- SMALL CAPS BREAK OUT... After opening lower this morning, stocks turned in a positive chart day. All of the major stock indexes closed at or near new recovery highs. And they did so on rising volume, which is a healthy combination.... READ MORE
HIGH YIELDING GROUPS ARE MARKET LEADERS... With US rates at or near record lows, investors have been favoring stock groups that pay dividends in excess of bond yields. I addressed this issue on August 12 with a message headlined: "Dividend Paying Stocks Like Utilities and Telecom Do Better in... READ MORE
Charts of Interest: AN, CLF, FDX, NAT, RTN, SHAW, THC This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading... READ MORE