Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! One of the more unexpected pieces of feedback that I've gotten as I have travelled around recently is that some people aren't reading our free Blog Articles because they associate blogs with rumor, innuendo, amateur writing, and lots of false information. While that... READ MORE
The S&P 500 decline over the past several weeks has reached a critical junction point in the decline at the 380-day exponential moving average support level. There are several forward scenarios that can occur: 1) Prices are sufficiently oversold on a short-term basis to where the... READ MORE
Many traders look at volatility and think huge potential rewards. I look at it and think huge potential risks. I know I'm conservative, but it's two different ways of viewing the same market. I concede that if you're on the right side of each... READ MORE
In early April, I expressed the view that the rally in the U.S. Dollar Index was coming mainly from weaker European currencies which meant that the dollar rally wasn't as widespread as it appeared. To support that view, I showed three foreign currencies that were rallying strongly... READ MORE
With the market in a dizzying decline, some of our subscribers are wondering why our market posture is only neutral. Where's the sell signal? The short answer is that the Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) can only give a intermediate-term neutral signal if the long-term signal... READ MORE
SPY NEARS FEBRUARY LOW FOR KEY TESTS... Link for todays video. At the risk of a lynching :~) , I will remain on a limb with my assessment of an uptrend on the weekly. This is important because an uptrend on the weekly chart implies that the April-May decline is a... READ MORE
The BRIC ETF (BKF) has a large double top working over the last 6-9 months. With the April-May decline, the ETF broke support from the February low to confirm this pattern. Based on traditional technical analysis, the projected decline is to the low 30s. The height of the... READ MORE
How can the evidence remain bullish after the April-May decline? Looking back at the evidence in early February, which turned negative after the Jan-Feb pullback, these are the indicator that turned bearish: the McClellan Oscillators, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX), momentum, offensive sector performance, small-... READ MORE
With a gap down and 3.78% plunge, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is suddenly within a few percentage points of its February low. This reaction low defines the up trend on the weekly chart. A break below this low would reverse the uptrend that has been in... READ MORE
With the stock market down sharply in early trading on Thursday, Apollo Group (APOL) sticks out a like a sore thumb with a 2+ percent gain. The stock appeared to break support last week, but recovered with a high volume surge on Monday. Today's gain in the face... READ MORE
S&P 500 IS TRADING BELOW 200-DAY AVERAGE ... Today's market slide has put the S&P 500 in danger of closing below its 200-day moving average (red line) for the first time in a year. The S&P has also lost 10% from... READ MORE
Indecision gripped the market yesterday as the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) formed a classic long legged doji. It is still unclear if these are bull legs or bear legs. The overall trend is down on the daily chart as SPY formed a lower high below 118 and gapped... READ MORE
Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, but the Financials SPDR (XLF) managed a small gain. A snapshot from the Market Summary page shows the nine sector SPDRs. XLF is the only gainer as the ETF test the early May lows. Click this image for details... READ MORE
STOCKS STAGE ANOTHER RECOVERY WITHIN A DOWNTREND... Link for todays video. Wednesdays trading day looks a lot like Monday. Stocks declined until noon and then advanced in the afternoon. Neither the morning decline nor the afternoon rebound were convincing. All in all, Wednesdays trading action looks like a stalemate. Chart... READ MORE
After a mild recovery day on Monday, stocks opened strong on Tuesday with many of the major index ETFs gapping up. And that was it. These opening gaps, though modest, did not last more than an hour as stocks moved lower the rest of the day. By the end of... READ MORE
The Market Summary can be viewed as a web page or as a Market Carpet. The snapshot below shows the Market Summary Carpet over the last 22 days (one month). There are a few green spots and lots of red. US Treasuries, the Dollar, Gold and Miners are the only... READ MORE
FOREIGN SHARES MUCH WEAKER THAN THE US... We've noted before that foreign stocks are acting much weaker than those in the U.S. The first two charts demonstrate that very clearly. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 having fallen 7% from its mid-April high and... READ MORE
SPY continued lower on Monday morning with a dip below 112. This put SPY close to the 7-May close at 111.26 and within the 7-May candlestick body. After dipping below 112 in the late morning, buyers stepped into the market and pushed SPY to 113.95 on... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD AFTERNOON REBOUND ... Link for todays video. After a weak open and down morning, stocks began moving higher in the afternoon and finished in the green for the first time in three days. The gains were rather small though. Sectors were mixed with six up and... READ MORE
Netflix (NFLX) is up over 100% from its January lows, which makes it one of the top performers this year. However, signs of selling pressure are starting to creep in. First, the stock formed a bearish harami in late April and declined to 90. Second, a bearish evening star formed... READ MORE
Friday's action is continuing into Monday. As of 4AM ET, the Euro is getting slammed (1.227), gold is higher, US Treasuries are higher and oil is lower. Asian stocks followed Wall Street and Europe with sharp losses on Monday. European indices are down, but the losses are... READ MORE
Global stock markets have been quite volatile of late and significant gap ups and gap downs are becoming the norm. While trading gaps may seem impossible at times, there is good news technically from the market selloff that resulted from the debt crisis in Europe. In recent articles, I'... READ MORE
The London FTSE ($FTSE) has an expanding right triangle working over the last 7-8 months. These are akin to broadening formations, which are also bearish reversal patterns. After an advance from 3500 in March-09 to 5250 in October-09, the index moved into a volatile consolidation period. Notice... READ MORE
MAJOR INDEX ETFS FAIL NEAR BROKEN SUPPORT... Link for todays video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ), S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Dow SPDR (DIA), Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and S&P 400 MidCap ETF (MDY) were all down over... READ MORE
From the breadth charts page, users can get a glimpse of the AD Lines and cumulative Net New Highs lines for the NYSE, Nasdaq and Amex. The image below shows the cumulative Net New Highs lines for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Both flatted over the last two weeks, but have... READ MORE
After a drubbing over the prior two weeks, stocks rebounded with a sharp rally this week. For now, the drubbing was stronger than the rebound. However, the rebound established reaction lows in the AD Lines and the major index ETFs that should be watched for a possible trend reversal. A... READ MORE
SPY edged above Wednesday's high yesterday, but late selling pressure drove the ETF below Wednesday's low. This weak close affirms resistance from broken support. If I were to write a bearish script, it would be pretty much just what is playing out on the daily and... READ MORE
Last week was all about safety. This week is all about risk. The Sector PerfChart shows the offensive sectors outperforming the defensive sectors over the last four trading days. All sectors are up on an absolute basis. However, the consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and finance are up the most on... READ MORE
After some indecision around 116, the bulls reasserted themselves and pushed SPY another 1.40% higher on Wednesday. Monday's gap is holding and the cup remains half full. Over the last three days, SPY is up 5.56%, QQQQ is up 7.07% and IWM is up 9.... READ MORE
The Brazilian Bovespa Index ($BVSP) is testing support in the 62,000 area. There is a support zone from 60,000 to 61,300 that extends back to the late October low. The index has been swinging from this support zone to a resistance zone in the low 70,000... READ MORE
SMALL-CAPS AND TECHS LEAD BROAD RALLY... Link for today's video. Stocks moved higher for the third day running with solid gains in all of the major indices. Small-caps led the way higher as the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained around 3% on the day. Chart 1... READ MORE
Despite the big bailout package from the EU over the weekend, the Euro moved lower on Tuesday as Forex traders renewed selling pressure. Gold surged as a substitute for fiat currencies. Once again we have both the Dollar and gold moving higher. I consider this negative for stocks and continued... READ MORE
GOLD IS COMPETING WITH THE DOLLAR... Some readers have asked why gold can continue to rise in the face of a rising dollar. As I've explained several times recently, gold is both a commodity and a currency. At the moment, it's acting more like a currency... READ MORE
As expected, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gapped above 115 on the open with a 4.08% opening surge. This is the third biggest opening gap (up) in years, perhaps ever. SPY gapped up 5.52% on 19-Sep-08 and 6.06% on 13-Oct-08. Guess... READ MORE
DOW BOUNCES OFF KEY RETRACEMENT... Link for todays video. News of a $956 billion European bailout plan sparked a huge rally on Wall Street. Stocks fell sharply last week as Greece teetered and fears of contagion gripped Wall Street. A weekend bailout package alleviated these fears and put risk back... READ MORE
Alexander Elder and his partner Kerry Lovvorn put together this chart analysis of last week's market action: Click here for a live version of this chart. The chart uses our new version of Dr. Elder's Impulse Trading System to color the bars. "FI" refers... READ MORE
Stock futures are trading sharply higher on news of a comprehensive $962 billion EU bailout package. As of 5AM ET, the Dow is up some 350 points, the S&P 500 is up 47, oil is up $3, gold is down $21, US bonds are down sharply, EU bonds... READ MORE
With a sharp decline the last four days, the Financials SPDR (XLF) entered a key retracement zone that may offer support. The area around 14.86-15.29 marks a 50-62% of the February-April rally. XLF is also oversold after a 12% decline in four weeks. Click this... READ MORE
FLIGHT TO SAFETY CONTINUES AS STOCKS REMAIN WEAK... Link for todays video. Stocks were down sharply in early trading on Friday as money continued its move to relative safety. Despite German approval for the Greek bailout and a much better-than-expected employment report, stocks moved lower and remained under... READ MORE
As deep as this week's decline has been, it was not enough to turn the position table net negative. The AD Lines and AD Volume Line were hit, but remain in uptrends and well above their February lows. Most of the Bullish Percent Indices are still above 50%... READ MORE