Let's Get This Out of The Way Right Now For the last 18 years, I've had a love affair with my annual forecast report. Until I began writing this letter, it was the only thing I did. Many of you purchased it last year, and some... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The stock market ended with a bang in 2023 in spite of inflationary fears * Small caps and emerging markets are breaking out of a trading range so look for value plays in these asset groups * Bitcoin has soared and the trend is likely to continue in 2024 The... READ MORE
When we discuss participation, we are referring to the more specific and accurate assessment of breadth available with the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes. The venerable and widely-known Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average of a price index crosses up through the 200-day moving average, which signals... READ MORE
One area I cover in the Outlook 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and how he sees the upcoming Year of the Dragon. Part of my comments on his analysis is based on this statement by Lo: "Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, join Mary Ellen as she as she dives into the latest news and trends that are driving price action in the markets. From housing updates to consumer confidence and inflationary data, she breaks it all down and shows you how... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Cooling inflation data sends the S&P 500 higher, which is a good start to the Santa Claus rally * Investors should monitor small-cap stocks and bonds and consider adding them to investment portfolios * Volatility is low but investors should continue monitoring the VIX to identify changes in... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Tyler and Alex dive into the current trends and momentum in the markets, in order to help navigate through the ever-changing landscape of stocks, bonds, commodities, and the dollar. Is the recent pullback in the S&P 500 is just a... READ MORE
In the second of a five-part special series on StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave takes a deep dive into the bond markets, talking rising rates, Fed rate hikes, value vs. growth, inverted yield curves, and what the bond markets in 2023 could tell us about potential future paths... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, with Energy (XLE) finally showing signs of life, Carl and Erin dive into the sector to learn more about participation and new momentum. Carl discusses Total Returns on SPX, which are showing new all-time highs before the actual index.... READ MORE
We publish this table daily to give an overview of the market, sector, and industry group indexes we follow. The Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY Signals occur when the 20-day EMA crosses up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross). Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY Signals occur when the 50-day EMA... READ MORE
In this video, Larry presents his forecast for FANG stocks, including an analysis of the stock selloff for META. He then digs into the cycle of debt and why he's bothered about credit card writeoffs. After that, he examines the weekly economic index and GDP and how they... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl discusses his recent epiphany regarding data derived from major indexes. Bad data will lead to bad analysis, so it's important to understand this concept for analyzing major indexes. He and Erin discuss the implications of Magnificent... READ MORE
Santa Comes to Wall Street Maybe St. Nick gets into the eggnog before he visits Wall Street each year, because the trading pattern has been a step up, then a stumble down before recovering at the end of the year. I first noticed this Up-Down-Up pattern back in the early... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Erin flies solo today and gives everyone a refresher course on how to expertly time your entries and exits for trades, using the 5-minute candlestick chart. She covers the market in general, followed by analysis of sectors of interest... READ MORE
A recent article on the Business Insider site reported a set of Death Cross/Golden Cross signals on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). Specifically, on November 13, the 50-day moving average crossed down through the 200-day moving average, commonly called a Death Cross. Two days later, the 50-day moving... READ MORE
We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Stock market breadth is widening which is an indication that market internals are strong * Falling treasury yields suggest that inflation expectations are declining * Investors are more complacent than in October which is bullish for equities Stocks are having a good November, which aligns with typical stock market behavior.... READ MORE
I last wrote about bonds and interest rates in August, as they were in the process of challenging their October 2022 highs. My conclusion at the time was that they were likely to go through, but that upside potential would  be limited due to what seemed at the time to... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl opens the show with a discussion about the typical 60/40 Portfolio (60% US Stocks/40% US Bonds) and whether it will continue to serve you well given the decline in Bonds. Is this portfolio blend obsolete? Both... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe shows how to use comparative relative strength to identify important shifts in trend, sometimes well in advance of price. He explains what the line means, plus how to use it to provide early warning signals and for... READ MORE
After making a major low in 1981, bonds entered a rising trend that lasted nearly 40 years. During that period, new rules and expectations were constructed and acquired that still influence decision making today -- which is unfortunate, because the game has changed. In 2022, the long-term rising trend line... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite continue their winning streak * Crude oil continues to slide as it trades below its 200-day moving average If there were one thing that was surprising about the stock market, it would be how quickly the charts changed in November. Equities... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave breaks down the charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 with a focus on the downtrend channel for the QQQ and key resistance at 4400 for the S&P 500. He answers viewer questions on... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl covers the major markets as well as the Dollar, Gold, yields, and Bitcoin. Erin runs her "Momentum Sleepers Scan" to find stocks that are showing new momentum under the surface. She uncovers a few stocks for... READ MORE
Last week's sharp upward reversal in the bond market followed the FOMC Interest Rate decision. A decision to not change the Fed Funds Interest Rate target. Unlike the prior meeting ‘non-action', this decision inspired robust bond and stock buying by the investment community. The downward stride of... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe presents a few examples in different timeframes of how to use the RSI indicator for divergences. He explains what to look for when finding counter trend plays, as well as divergence with the trend. Joe then analyses... READ MORE
On this episode of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, I address the completed monthly charts for October and assess the condition of the long term trends, along with whether they are still in play or have shifted. As usual, I start with the long-term rotation and trends in asset... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Katie Stockton, CMT of Fairlead Strategies shares her weekly charts of the S&P 500, VIX, and XLK and identifies three areas of opportunity through year-end 2023. Dave breaks down this week's Fed meeting from a technical... READ MORE
On this week's edition of StockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete explains how his TLT call from 10/10 was spot-on! But that could all change based on the unemployment rate. Pete believes that rates will fallifthe unemployment rate spikes higher, likely to the 4.25-4.5% level. Until... READ MORE
Monday, after a lot of spooky headlines, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) touched its 23-month moving average (MA) or the two-year biz cycle breakout point right around 417. Plus, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)flashed green as didIWM,the small caps. The big question... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The S&P 500 index closed lower for the week and below its 200-day moving average * Long-dated Treasury yields continue to move higher as investors digest the higher-for-longer narrative * VIX has been trending higher which indicates a rise in investor uncertainty Stock market action in the last... READ MORE
Before we begin, just a note to mention that TLT took out the fast MA featured in the October 10th daily, while SPY underperformed. If that is a trend, it behooves you to review that daily. Loyal readers of the Daily know that we often focus on zooming out to... READ MORE
The next direction of the long bonds is crucial in determining the macro. First, after a wrecking ball crash and ahead of the FOMC, we could surmise that a bottoming-like action defines the last several trading days. Our Real Motion indicator shows a mean reversion. The 10-day moving averages (cyan... READ MORE
On this week's edition of StockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete reviews the bullish percent index; with all the market talking about oversold conditions, the bullish percent makes that narrative make more sense. He then reviews the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and deciphers what is happening on... READ MORE
In this special edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Mish Schneider, Chief Strategist at MarketGauge, takes over for Dave Keller to share her thoughts on the daily Market Recap during a day of uncertain news. This video originally premiered on October 9, 2023. Watch on our dedicated Final... READ MORE
For consistency, here are the key go-tos during an uncertain time in the market: 1. The next direction of long bonds (TLT). 2. The next direction of the small caps and retail sectors (IWM, XRT). 3. The next direction of commodities, all of them, but particularly the agricultural ones, oil... READ MORE
I spent all of last week, in the media and in print, going over the importance of 2 key indicators. (See the media clips below.) 1. Our risk gauges on Big View, all of which kept flashing risk-on regardless of the doom-and-gloom and initial selloff in bonds and SPY. 2.... READ MORE
The bond market is doing what the Federal Reserve hasn't -- raising rates. The fear is something is going to break. On this week's edition of StockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete reviews the TLT chart again, talking over the US 2-year yield less the US 10-year... READ MORE
Yesterday, we covered the 80-month moving average in small caps and retail. Today, I did several interviews -- some already out (BNN Bloomberg), others out soon (Financial Sense with Jim Pupluva), and the one that you'll find on YouTubelater today with Real Vision. We chose this one to... READ MORE
If you are finding yourself fluctuating between bullishness and bearishness, then congratulations! Hopefully, that also means you are waiting for certain signals to help you commit to one way or another. Here are the signals we are waiting for before overly committing to a bias: 1. As we wrote over... READ MORE