Gold is not the most exciting asset at the moment, but it is in a long-term uptrend and perhaps the strongest commodity out there. There are also signs that the January decline is ending as RSI hits a momentum support zone and a bullish continuation pattern forms. Note that GLD... READ MORE
Oil is not only an important commodity in and of itself, but is also one has a substantial influence on commodity indexes in general. Its weight in the CRB Composite is 23%; for energy in total, it is 39%. Chart 1 compares the oil price to the CRB Composite, where... READ MORE
For today, I am reprinting an interview I did for Kitco News with Neils Christensen, written by Neils. (Kitco News) - The gold market remains in a solid holding pattern as it waits for some direction from the Federal Reserve, and one market strategist is warning potential precious metals investors... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave tracks the S&P 500 as it pushes to a new high above 4900, while the McClellan Oscillator rotates to a bullish reading. He breaks down earnings plays this week, including XOM, MSFT, and more. This video originally... READ MORE
On Friday, the market woke up to great news. Mission accomplished on inflation. Yahoo Finance reported: "The Fed's preferred inflation measure — a 'core' Personal Consumption Expenditures index that excludes volatile food and energy prices — clocked in at 2.9% for the month of December, beating... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest John Kosar, CMT of Asbury Research shares his proprietary Asbury Six macro model, which suggests caution based on weak fund flows and breadth conditions. Dave focuses in on crude oil and gold charts, and also reviews key earnings plays... READ MORE
As a follow-up to a daily I wrote earlier in January called "Super Cycles Do Not Just Fade Away",yesterday'sJanuary 23rd dailywas all about one of the three indicators that can get us prepared for more inflation. On January 5th, sugar was still trading under 22... READ MORE
The biggest mover so far in one month's time is sugar futures, up over 16%. As I am a big follower of weather patterns and have predicted weather could be a huge factor on several crops this year, one major concern for sugar is that the current El... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Commodities and USD rotating deep inside the lagging quadrant, indicating weak relative strength * Bitcoin is in a strong relative uptrend vs all other asset classes, but going through a corrective phase * Stocks are the clear winner in this asset allocation battle The RRG above shows the rotation of... READ MORE
The Fed stopped raising rates in July, and, by mid-October, yields had peaked. Since then, yields have begun to decline in anticipation of the Fed beginning rate cuts this year. At this point, it appears that yields have found support and may possibly bounce, or begin moving sideways. This chart... READ MORE
After a long weekend, the market action on January 16th held some surprises. The Bullish Trends, or gainers, were the dollar and -- here is the surprise for some -- many different commodities. The Bearish Trends, or losers, were foreign currencies, long bonds, and (not shown on the chart) US... READ MORE
Last week, eight new Bitcoin-based ETFs began trading courtesy of recent SEC approval. This launch was well anticipated, as the price had already run up in the hope that these new buyers would push it to an even higher level. The thought occurred to me that the situation is not... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * The stock market exhibited tentative behavior this week probably due to uncertainty about inflation and geopolitical developments * S&P 500 index touched a high but pulled back to close slightly higher * Crude oil prices broke above $75 but pulled back and is holding support at its 200-week... READ MORE
With the news on geopolitical escalation, soft versus hard landing, disinflation versus reinflation, growth versus value, and credit default versus available disposable income, gold and silver are even more interesting now. Gold's behavior has been more of sell strength and buy weakness for some time. What has changed... READ MORE
I began the week focused on bank earnings, which we will wake up to tomorrow. In that Daily, I wrote, "one can assume that bank stocks, which already started off the year extremely well, have potential to shine. "However, we know that assumptions can be tricky. There are... READ MORE
Looking at the Economic Modern Family (weekly charts), all of them, to date, peaked in December. The Russell 2000, Regional Banks, Transportation and Retail, as far as index and sectors go, backed off the most from their peaks. Semiconductors are more sideways since the peak, as well as Biotech (which... READ MORE
Uncertainty needs attention in order for it to make you second guess yourself. Instead, wait for trends to change, and then make changes. On this week's edition ofStockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete Carmasino shares a broad market overview, starting with a divergence signal on the bullish percent of... READ MORE
As a main aluminum producer, Alcoa (AA) announced cost-cutting measures, along with plans to curtail production at one Western Australian Refinery. But that is just one facility, and the company plans to continue to operate its port facilities located alongside the refinery. Plus, it will continue to import raw materials... READ MORE
On inflation I like this quote- "Goods deflation likely transitory as downward pressure on goods demand and input costs are fading. 1H24 global core inflation likely to settle near 3%, which won't resolve the immaculate disinflation debate." And this quote does not include the steep rise... READ MORE
S&P 500 earnings are in for 2023 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis. The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E... READ MORE
Let's Get This Out of The Way Right Now For the last 18 years, I've had a love affair with my annual forecast report. Until I began writing this letter, it was the only thing I did. Many of you purchased it last year, and some... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG points out how broadly supported the market has been this time around, and how he's seeing excellent setups on the higher time frames. He walks us through some of the action that is making him look forward... READ MORE
When we discuss participation, we are referring to the more specific and accurate assessment of breadth available with the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes. The venerable and widely-known Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average of a price index crosses up through the 200-day moving average, which signals... READ MORE
One area I cover in the Outlook 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and how he sees the upcoming Year of the Dragon. Part of my comments on his analysis is based on this statement by Lo: "Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal... READ MORE
On this episode of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, the last one of the year 2023, I assess current rotations in asset classes, as well as US sectors. This big picture calls for a continued/renewed strength for stocks over bonds. As I observe, money is rotating out of... READ MORE
For last year's Outlook, I wrote: Perhaps our biggest callout for a major rally in 2023 is in gold. Here we are over $2000 and, although gold has not doubled in price, it did rise by 25%. For 2024, we stay with our call for higher gold prices.... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Tyler and Alex dive into the current trends and momentum in the markets, in order to help navigate through the ever-changing landscape of stocks, bonds, commodities, and the dollar. Is the recent pullback in the S&P 500 is just a... READ MORE
We publish this table daily to give an overview of the market, sector, and industry group indexes we follow. The Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY Signals occur when the 20-day EMA crosses up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross). Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY Signals occur when the 50-day EMA... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Jeff Huge, CMT of JWH Investment Partners highlights one industry within the Industrial sector showing a multi-year breakout, and lays out the bull case for gold in 2024. Dave reviews travel and tourism charts, speaks to the strength in... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler take a top-down approach to the markets as they apply the GoNoGo suite of tools to all the major asset classes. Starting with a look at macro factors effecting equity investors, they discuss the technical analysis from trend, momentum,... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Sam Burns, CFA of Mill Street Research focuses on strength in financials, weakness in crude oil, and key macro themes he'll be tracking into 2024. Meanwhile, Dave tracks the relentless upswing for Bitcoin, the pullback in gold... READ MORE
While December 1st brought out the bulls in nearly EVERYTHING, one area caught our attention. In December 2019, I saw a similar chart showing an unsustainable ratio between equities and commodities, which started me on the notion that something had to give. Now that I see this chart, with emerging... READ MORE
Despite the total cuts by all countries added at the November 30th OPEC+ meeting, oil sold off, testing key support. Countries like Angola have threatened not to stick to the new quota, promising to produce above target. Meanwhile, Brazil confirmed it will join OPEC+. That means that some of the... READ MORE
Santa Comes to Wall Street Maybe St. Nick gets into the eggnog before he visits Wall Street each year, because the trading pattern has been a step up, then a stumble down before recovering at the end of the year. I first noticed this Up-Down-Up pattern back in the early... READ MORE
A lot of the time, I write articles that focus on markets or technical situations that should be monitored for a potential turn. This one is no different, except to say that these markets are not close to breakout points, but right at them. In short, it's fish-or-cut-bait... READ MORE
A recent article on the Business Insider site reported a set of Death Cross/Golden Cross signals on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). Specifically, on November 13, the 50-day moving average crossed down through the 200-day moving average, commonly called a Death Cross. Two days later, the 50-day moving... READ MORE
We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
On Monday the 20th, I gave 2 interviews. The first is the clip below is from Yahoo Finance where we focus on oil and agricultural commodities. The second interview is the Daily Briefing with Maggie Lake on Real Vision. This chart above is featured, along with: 1. Inflation thesis 2.... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave breaks down the technical setups on all of the Magnificent 7 stocks, addressing the balance between strong trends and overbought conditions. He answers viewer questions on investor sentiment, trailing stops, potential upside for TSLA, and the latest thinking on... READ MORE
Since we came back from vacation, I've written 3 Dailys. The first of these was on the Economic Modern Family and how it opened its loving arms to the bulls. I was particularly keen on small caps or the Russell 2000 (IWM). I wrote, "Beginning with Granddad... READ MORE