As a main aluminum producer, Alcoa (AA) announced cost-cutting measures, along with plans to curtail production at one Western Australian Refinery. But that is just one facility, and the company plans to continue to operate its port facilities located alongside the refinery. Plus, it will continue to import raw... READ MORE
On inflation I like this quote- "Goods deflation likely transitory as downward pressure on goods demand and input costs are fading. 1H24 global core inflation likely to settle near 3%, which won't resolve the immaculate disinflation debate." And this quote does not include the steep rise... READ MORE
S&P 500 earnings are in for 2023 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis. The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E... READ MORE
Let's Get This Out of The Way Right Now For the last 18 years, I've had a love affair with my annual forecast report. Until I began writing this letter, it was the only thing I did. Many of you purchased it last year, and some... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG points out how broadly supported the market has been this time around, and how he's seeing excellent setups on the higher time frames. He walks us through some of the action that is making him look forward... READ MORE
When we discuss participation, we are referring to the more specific and accurate assessment of breadth available with the Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes. The venerable and widely-known Golden Cross is when the 50-day moving average of a price index crosses up through the 200-day moving... READ MORE
One area I cover in the Outlook 2024 is the teachings of Raymond Lo and how he sees the upcoming Year of the Dragon. Part of my comments on his analysis is based on this statement by Lo: "Many has the misunderstanding that the Dragon is glamorous auspicious animal... READ MORE
On this episode of StockCharts TV's Sector Spotlight, the last one of the year 2023, I assess current rotations in asset classes, as well as US sectors. This big picture calls for a continued/renewed strength for stocks over bonds. As I observe, money is rotating out of... READ MORE
For last year's Outlook, I wrote: Perhaps our biggest callout for a major rally in 2023 is in gold. Here we are over $2000 and, although gold has not doubled in price, it did rise by 25%. For 2024, we stay with our call for higher gold prices.... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Tyler and Alex dive into the current trends and momentum in the markets, in order to help navigate through the ever-changing landscape of stocks, bonds, commodities, and the dollar. Is the recent pullback in the S&P 500 is just... READ MORE
We publish this table daily to give an overview of the market, sector, and industry group indexes we follow. The Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) BUY Signals occur when the 20-day EMA crosses up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross). Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM) BUY Signals occur... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Jeff Huge, CMT of JWH Investment Partners highlights one industry within the Industrial sector showing a multi-year breakout, and lays out the bull case for gold in 2024. Dave reviews travel and tourism charts, speaks to the strength... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler take a top-down approach to the markets as they apply the GoNoGo suite of tools to all the major asset classes. Starting with a look at macro factors effecting equity investors, they discuss the technical analysis from trend,... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Sam Burns, CFA of Mill Street Research focuses on strength in financials, weakness in crude oil, and key macro themes he'll be tracking into 2024. Meanwhile, Dave tracks the relentless upswing for Bitcoin, the pullback in gold... READ MORE
While December 1st brought out the bulls in nearly EVERYTHING, one area caught our attention. In December 2019, I saw a similar chart showing an unsustainable ratio between equities and commodities, which started me on the notion that something had to give. Now that I see this chart, with emerging... READ MORE
Despite the total cuts by all countries added at the November 30th OPEC+ meeting, oil sold off, testing key support. Countries like Angola have threatened not to stick to the new quota, promising to produce above target. Meanwhile, Brazil confirmed it will join OPEC+. That means that some of the... READ MORE
Santa Comes to Wall Street Maybe St. Nick gets into the eggnog before he visits Wall Street each year, because the trading pattern has been a step up, then a stumble down before recovering at the end of the year. I first noticed this Up-Down-Up pattern back in... READ MORE
A lot of the time, I write articles that focus on markets or technical situations that should be monitored for a potential turn. This one is no different, except to say that these markets are not close to breakout points, but right at them. In short, it's fish-... READ MORE
A recent article on the Business Insider site reported a set of Death Cross/Golden Cross signals on the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). Specifically, on November 13, the 50-day moving average crossed down through the 200-day moving average, commonly called a Death Cross. Two days later, the... READ MORE
We spend a lot of time analyzing sector rotation, but there are also other relationships that can offer useful insights to internal market dynamics. One aspect of this is the relationship between market averages. NASDAQ vs. the DJIA As an example, Chart 1 plots the relationship between the NASDAQ Composite... READ MORE
On Monday the 20th, I gave 2 interviews. The first is the clip below is from Yahoo Finance where we focus on oil and agricultural commodities. The second interview is the Daily Briefing with Maggie Lake on Real Vision. This chart above is featured, along with: 1. Inflation thesis 2.... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, Dave breaks down the technical setups on all of the Magnificent 7 stocks, addressing the balance between strong trends and overbought conditions. He answers viewer questions on investor sentiment, trailing stops, potential upside for TSLA, and the latest thinking on... READ MORE
Since we came back from vacation, I've written 3 Dailys. The first of these was on the Economic Modern Family and how it opened its loving arms to the bulls. I was particularly keen on small caps or the Russell 2000 (IWM). I wrote, "Beginning with Granddad... READ MORE
A weaker labor market, manufacturing production slowing, new home prices falling and crude oil inventories rising more than expected are all to blame for the big drop in oil prices. US also eased sanctions on Venezuelan oil. That's the nature of commodities; fresh news can supersede older headlines... READ MORE
Brazil planted a record soybean crop only to see unusually dry and hot weather create concerns for the harvest. Furthermore, Argentina had an extreme shortfall of soybean meal crops. Meanwhile, the USDA numbers were bearish for corn and soybeans, as U.S. crops came in larger than expected. However, China... READ MORE
I last wrote about bonds and interest rates in August, as they were in the process of challenging their October 2022 highs. My conclusion at the time was that they were likely to go through, but that upside potential would be limited due to what seemed at the time to... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews what drove the markets higher last week. She also shares what needs to take place in order for a sustained uptrend to materialize. Last up, she presents a review of the weaker areas as defensive stocks pull... READ MORE
After TLT hit Pete's downside target, it had a violent move higher. On this week's edition ofStockCharts TV'sHalftime, Pete illustrates that the recent rally might be weakening. A look at WTIC crude shows a pullback right on the level Pete uses as a pivot... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the new uptrend in the markets and the areas that are best positioned to benefit. She also highlights how to use different timeframe charts to tell if a stock will continue to trend higher after gapping up... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, join Dave and Grayson as they break down the trends for the top ten stocks and ETF charts for November 2023. Watch as they identify key levels and signals to keep an eye out for using the power of StockCharts&... READ MORE
In this week's edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Carl opens the show with a look at a very bearish market BIAS Table. He examines how the latest mortgage rates are squeezing buyers and sellers alike by comparing today's mortgage payments versus payments at the lows;... READ MORE
In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, with US Equities delivering a streak of daily gains this week, Alex takes a top down approach to see what the GoNoGo Charts are saying about markets. With U.S. domestic equities in a "NoGo" trend, the charts warn that... READ MORE
The S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen about 10 percent from the July top, and the last two weeks has been pretty rough, so should we be looking for the Bear to take charge again? First, looking at a weekly chart, it is not clear that the Bear actually... READ MORE
In this edition of StockCharts TV'sThe Final Bar, guest Tom Bowley of EarningsBeats shares his chart of key ratios illustrating how growth still has held its ground relative to value stocks. Host David Keller, CMT focuses in on distribution in the last hour of trading and highlights one... READ MORE
On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe shows an intraday trade setup in the SPY that took place this week. He uses the MACD and ADX in multiple timeframes to explain in detail how they can help with our entry and timing. He discusses... READ MORE
Correlations rise during bear markets. This means more stocks participate in broad market declines than broad market advances. In other words, the odds are stacked against us when picking stocks in bear markets. Traders are better off looking outside of the stock market for opportunities. The Perfchart below shows the... READ MORE
When Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt was assassinated in 1981, gold rallied sharply over the near-term, but the advance soon petered out. The reason was that gold was in a primary bear market, so the advance merely represented a counter-cyclical move. Gold has rallied sharply since the Middle... READ MORE
In this episode of StockCharts TV'sThe MEM Edge, Mary Ellen shares where the market stands, after last week's price action had select areas far outpacing the markets while others were weak. She also reviews the start of earnings season following reports from several high profile companies.... READ MORE
KEY TAKEAWAYS * Broader stock market indices are still holding support despite the selloff * The VIX closed higher but it's still tame relative to past readings * Gold futures closed above $1900 per ounce indicating that investors may have fled to gold in case geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend... READ MORE
Some notes this week: Growth stocks are acting as a defense move again, especially given that the Fed remains on the fence about interest rate. Small caps and retail though, could still act as an anchor. For now, they both held a key area -- 6-7-year business cycle lows... READ MORE