Technology outperformed throughout the second decade of this century, but the times they are a-changin', as it is clear that this sector has lost enough mojo in the last year to indicate that a basic transformation in market leadership is underway. Just to be clear, I am not saying... READ MORE
Larry presents his predictions for the markets in 2022 in this new StockCharts TV special. Can the future really be known? In general, Larry thinks so. But, as he always says, trust but verify, and the proof is in the pudding. Larry looks back at his previous presentations and forecasts... READ MORE
FED MINUTES PUSH STOCKS LOWER... The release of Fed minutes yesterday from its December meeting reflected a more hawkish tone which pushed stocks lower and interest rates higher. The Nasdaq took the biggest hit owing to a big drop in technology shares which are the most vulnerable to rising rates.... READ MORE
I had thought that rates would moderate a little at the beginning of 2022, as the economic growth rate slowed due to COVID and other factors. Not so, as yields across the spectrum have resumed their bull market rally in anticipation of higher inflation and a less accommodative central bank.... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES GAIN GROUND... Stocks are ending the trading week on a strong note as shown in the three charts below. The most notable one belongs to the S&P 500 in Chart 2 which is nearing a test of its old high. Ten of eleven stock sectors are... READ MORE
Last week, I pointed out three charts that had triggered bullish signals and suggested that these characteristics were strong enough to power the market higher. Prices immediately sold off, but have subsequently rebounded. Since those charts are still positive, I am sticking to the higher market over the next 2-4... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES WEAKEN... Stock prices are ending a volatile week on the downside. So far, no serious chart damage has been done as the three major stock indexes shown below are testing potential support at their 50-day moving averages. Stocks are struggling with the spread of the omicron virus (and... READ MORE
A lot of indicators, such as the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day MA and the NYSE bullish percentage, remain in confirmed downtrends that will take time to reverse. However, some of the shorter-term charts that have proved reliable in the past have just begun to offer some bullish... READ MORE
The copper price is reputed to have a "Ph.D. in economics" because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy. That role is justified due to copper's widespread use in most sectors of the economy, from homes and factories to electronics, power... READ MORE
LARGE CAPS ARE ENDING THE WEEK HIGHER DESPITE RISING CPI... This morning CPI report showed annual inflation rising 6.8% to the highest level in nearly forty years. Despite that high reading, major stock indexes are gaining ground on the day and week. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials climbing... READ MORE
According to CoinGecko, total crypto market capitalization, which came from almost nothing 10 years ago, stood at $3 trillion in early November. To put that in perspective, total US GDP currently stands at $23 trillion, so, at its recent high, global crypto was worth 13% of US GDP and more... READ MORE
Will stocks rally this Christmas? Larry answers the question and explores when the ideal short-term trading opportunity will be in this new StockCharts TV special. Larry also presents his forecast for Bitcoin and gold, sharing what he thinks is in store for gold over the next several months. This video... READ MORE
MOVING AVERAGE LINES ARE BEING THREATENED... A combination of factors are pushing stocks lower again today to extend weekly losses. A weak jobs report this morning, fears of accelerated Fed tightening to fight inflation, and worries about the Omicron coronavirus are keeping stocks on the defensive. Ånd moving lines are... READ MORE
Thursday's action was quite positive for several sectors, as they experienced positive two-day price formations. These patterns are only of a short-term nature and usually have an effect for between 5- and 10-days, so they do not represent major signals. However, since this action is coming off an... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES PLUNGE... Reports of a new covid variant in South Africa pushed stocks sharply lower the day after Thanksgiving. As a result, all three major U.S. stock indexes suffered short-term technical damage. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials falling -904 points (-2.5%) and ending the day well... READ MORE
One piece of Monday's market action that really stood out to me was a bearish outside day in the NASDAQ, as shown in Chart 1. A classic outside day develops after a persistent short-term rally and signals a short-term reversal in sentiment. The outside part refers to the... READ MORE
S&P 500 SHOWS SOME NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE... Stocks are ending the week in a mixed fashion. The Dow Jones Industrials are weakening, while the Nasdaq 100 is hitting a new record. That being the case, this message will focus on the S&P 500 which is in the... READ MORE
The Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (DBA) consists of grains (37%), softs (sugar, coffee and cocoa; 35%) and livestock (24%). A small allocation is also given to cotton. Chart 1 shows that this ETF began a bull market back in the spring of last year. Late 2020 also saw it break... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES MAINTAIN UPTRENDS... Stocks are ending the week trying to make up some losses from Wednesday's sharp selloff after the CPI annual inflation report of 6.2% was the highest level in thirty years. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrial staying above its 20-day moving average. Charts... READ MORE
The gold price zig-zagged its way down between August of last year and April of this one. Since then, it's really been in a trading range and now looks poised to break out. Whether it will or not is another question that only the market can decide. I&... READ MORE
INDUSTRIAL SPDR HITS NEW RECORD... A strong jobs report has boosted major stock indexes into record territory with most sectors also rising. Industrials are one of the day's strongest sectors. Chart 1 shows the Industrial Sector SPDR (XLI) moving into record territory today. It's being led... READ MORE
The major averages have recently been scoring new highs for the year, strongly hinting that the post-May correction has run its course. So where do we go from here? Is the market overbought and likely to digest recent gains, or is a rally into the bullish year-end period a better... READ MORE
A LONGER TERM LOOK AT OIL... Energy inflation is grabbing a lot of headlines these days and for good reason. Energy prices are hitting the highest level in years. That includes natural gas and crude oil. Today's message will focus on the next potential upside target for oil.... READ MORE
Sometimes, when I mess around with the charts, I discover an entirely new approach that I had not thought of before. Last week saw one of those breakthrough moments when, for the first time ever, I applied the Special K to hourly charts and came up with some interesting results.... READ MORE
DOW TRANSPORTS CONTINUE TO RALLY... While the Dow Industrials continue to test their old highs, transportation stocks continue to act much stronger. Chart 1 shows the Dow Transports rising today to the highest level in nearly five months. That shouldn't be too surprising with companies dealing with supply... READ MORE
The business cycle undergoes a set series of chronological sequences, just like the calendar year goes through seasons. Over the course of many decades, economists have recognized this phenomenon and devised composite indicators to follow this progression. By way of an example, the Conference Board publishes leading, coincident and lagging... READ MORE
Aging demographics, technological innovation and an ever-expanding debt overhang are three reasons why inflation has been largely kept under wraps in the last three decades. They are still relevant, so why not extrapolate a benign inflation trend into the future? One reason might lie in the Fed's extraordinary... READ MORE
The S&P peaked in early September, but most other major averages and many internal indicators of breadth have been rangebound since March. Price action this week, though, suggests that there is a good chance this corrective process has run its course and we will see significant new highs... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY LINES... Stocks are rising again today following yesterday's strong rally. And their technical condition is looking stronger. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising to the highest level in a month and moving back above its blue 50-day average. Chart 2 shows the S&... READ MORE
One of my favorite indicators is the Special K. It does not speak to us very often, but when it does, it's usually pretty reliable. I'll outline a few principles below, but for further reading, look hereandhere. The Special K, or SPK, recognizes the fact that... READ MORE
It's time for Halloween and Larry has some really nice treats for you in this new StockCharts TV special! One treat is in Gold and one is in the stock market itself, so grab your pens and get ready! This video was originally broadcast on October 12, 2021.... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS... Rising energy prices continue to fuel a rally in energy shares which are the day's strongest sector. Crude oil and natural gas are trading at the highest level in several years and show no signs of slowing down. That's contributing to... READ MORE
WATCHING 100-DAY AVERAGES...Stocks remain in a short- to intermediate term downturn that started during September. And moving average lines are being broken. It started with stock indexes falling below their 50-day moving averages. And then falling below their 100-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its... READ MORE
Back in AprilandMay, I wrote about the possibility that the tech-dominated NASDAQ had begun to lose its mojo. The argument was based more on relative action than the absolute price, as I was, and still am, bullish on the primary trend. Recent NASDAQ Underperformance is Likely to Extend Chart 1... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 3-MONTH HIGH...The steep rise in Treasury yields that started last week continued again today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 5 basis points today to 1.53%. That puts the TNX at the highest level in three months. Yields are being pushed higher... READ MORE
Last week, the Fed announced that tapering is likely to begin later in the year, to be later followed by a leisurely hike in rates. As usual, those pesky impatient markets have decided to raise rates now rather than wait for the clobbering they know they will get later. It... READ MORE
STOCKS MAKE UP LOST GROUND...Two strong days in a row have more than made back losses suffered on Monday. In addition, some of the short-term technical damage has been repaired. More specifically, 50-day moving averages that were broken on Monday have been regained on the S&P 500... READ MORE
Larry is back again! The topic du jour is "Trading Bitcoins & Cryptocurrencies." They have become really big markets with a huge following. Larry will share his insights on how to trade them, the problems with them and the opportunities. If you're a Bitcoin trader, you&... READ MORE
Earlier in the month, I pointed out that the long-term indicators for commodities were still bullish, but getting overbought. At the same time, several intermarket relationships were signaling danger, which suggested some degree of vulnerability. Prices have not moved very much since then, but, bearing in mind that overstretched technical... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SELLING DEEPENS ON CHINA CONCERNS... Monday's heavy selling of stocks was the biggest drop since the spring. The selling started in China on concerns over its property market and spread to Europe and the U.S. Going into Monday, stocks were already pulling back on fears that... READ MORE