BASIC MATERIALS ETF IS UNDERACHIEVING ... With all the recent talk about basic material prices moving up, a lot of readers have asked if this a good time to put money into the Materials Select Sector SPDR. I don't think so. Although it may seem counter-intuitive, the XLB... READ MORE
STOCK MARKET INDEXES WEAKEN FURTHER ... The stock market slide that started yesterday afternoon is continuing this morning. Yesterday's selling on rising volume raised bearish concerns along with the fact that moving average lines were broken as well. The Dow Diamonds (DIA) in Chart 1 have fallen back below... READ MORE
MATERIAL PRICES HAVE BIG JUMP ... Long-term rates continue to rise in the face of rising inflation pressures. Over the last month, manufacturers reported the biggest jump in fifteen years in the prices they pay for materials. That means that upside pressures are building in the inflation pipeline. As you... READ MORE
MARKET AVERAGES CLOSE BACK OVER 50-DAY LINES... The market had a lot thrown at it this month. A spike in energy prices, plunging consumer confidence, and rising long-term interest rates. It also had the month of September to deal with which has traditionally been the worst month of... READ MORE
JAPAN CONTINUES TO LEAD GLOBAL MARKETS ... I've written several bullish articles on Japan over the last few months. The last one on September 9 carried the headlines: "Japan Hits Four Year High" and "Japanese Market Leads Global Rally". The last paragraph in that article... READ MORE
A COMPARISON OF NAT GAS AND OIL... It's becoming increasingly clear that natural gas is now the strongest part of the oil patch. Part of the reason why can be seen in the following charts. The first two charts compare the ten-year history of crude oil (Chart... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE ETF IS SLIPPING ... On September 7 I wrote a positive story on the healthcare sector which was based on good chart action combined with relative strength (September 07, 2005). Although the group hasn't done that badly since then, it hasn't done that well either. So... READ MORE
30-YEAR T-BOND YIELD TESTS 200-DAY LINE ... I recently started to look at the 30-year T-bond yield to help determine the direction of long-term rates. That's because the 10-year T-note yield has given some false signals over the last year. Chart... READ MORE
PULLBACK IN OIL MAY BE HELPING ... Everywhere we look we see essentially the same chart picture. The major stock indexes are struggling to hold at the first key support levels drawn under their August lows. Chart-watchers know that's a very important test. Even before the recent hurricanes... READ MORE
HIGH VOLUME REVERSAL IS A CONCERN ... On September 14 I used weekly charts to show why I believed that the the long-term trend of the energy sector had reached overbought territory (September 14, 2005). [The monthly charts are also overbought]. I allowed, however, for higher prices since the short-... READ MORE
BANK INDEX HITS FIVE-MONTH LOW ... Heavy selling in bank stocks is pulling the entire financial sector lower today. Chart 1 shows the PHLX Bank Index (BKX) falling to a new four-month low. Part of the financial selling may be coming from heightened fears of inflation which encourages the... READ MORE
GOLD SHARES REACH TOP OF TRADING RANGE... On September 14 I wrote that the next upside target for the Gold & Silver (XAU) would be the top of a two-year trading range in the 111-113 zone (September 14, 2005). The XAU has reached that zone and is pulling... READ MORE
CONSUMER STOCKS ARE UNDERPERFORMING ... The latest consumer confidence report showed the biggest drop in years. While that may have been an over-reaction to the shock of Hurricane Katrina, consumer confidence has been dropping all year. We can tell that by looking at the relative performance of consumer discretionary stocks.... READ MORE
GOLD IS BREAKING OUT ... With everyone talking about oil, the gold market is breaking out to the highest level in seventeen years while oil is starting to slip. I'm going to make a case here for moving some money out of the energy sector and into gold stocks.... READ MORE
GOLD CONTINUES TO CLIMB... Gold jumped another $4 today to reach another 2005 high. Gold stocks are rising as well. Chart 1 shows the Gold ETF (GLD) reaching $454 today which puts it within striking distance of the high reached late last year. With bullion on the rise, gold stocks... READ MORE
ENERGY TREND IS STILL UP ... I've received a number of questions on some of my recent market messages that I'll try to answer herein. One has to do with my comment on Monday that "the trend in the energy sector is still up ,but very-... READ MORE
CRUDE NEARS TEST OF LOW 60s ... Energy futures fell again today and continued to lend short-term support to the rest of the market. Crude oil fell 75 cents to close at $63.34. Last Tuesday, I wrote that crude appeared headed for a test of initial support near $63.... READ MORE
FRIDAY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW ... Some of you may have watched my 7:10 am interview on Bloomberg TV this morning. I discussed the upside breakout in the healthcare sector that I wrote about here earlier in the week. For those of you who missed it, however, I'd like to... READ MORE
WEAKER DOLLAR BOOSTS GOLD AND JAPAN ... I've written several earlier articles on my belief that a weakening dollar would boost gold shares and foreign ETFs. As recently as August 22, I posted an article on why a falling dollar boosted foreign ETFs and highlighted the Japanese market which... READ MORE
NEW HEALTHCARE LEADERSHIP ... Yesterday I showed the Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) hitting a new high for the year and referred to the group as defensive in nature. I'd like to build on both themes today since healthcare is one of today's sector leaders and is... READ MORE
OVERBOUGHT CRUDE OIL BACKS OFF FROM $70 ... Crude oil fell another $1.61 today and gave a boost to the stock market. With all the concern over Hurricane Katrina last week, it was easy to lose sight of the fact that crude oil was probably ready for a correction anyway.... READ MORE
GLOBAL ETFS HIT NEW HIGHS ... While the U.S. took Labor Day off, the rest of the world continued to trade. And they were buying. Most of the world's stock markets gained ground on Monday (and again today) which is giving the U.S. market a boost. Chart... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM MARKET TREND IMPROVES ... After a turbulent week dominated by Hurricane Katrina, the stock market appears to be ending the week on a more positive note. Wednesday's upside turnaround was the most important day of the week. As Chart 1 shows, the S&P 500 moved... READ MORE
GOLD JUMPS SHARPLY AS DOLLAR FALLS ... Yesterday I showed the Gold ETF (GLD) and the Gold (XAU) Index stabilizing at their moving average lines, and suggested that both were starting to benefit from a falling dollar. With the dollar falling even further today, gold prices have gained more than $9.... READ MORE
CRB INDEX SOARS ON HURRICANE ... Energy prices aren't the only ones being pushed higher by the recent hurricane. The CRB Index has climbed to the highest level in twenty-five years. Most of this week's gains have been seen in those commodities directly related to problems... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE HOLDERS ARE CLIMBING AGAIN ... Yesterday's late selloff in crude oil proved temporary. Reports of heavy hurricane damage in the Gulf Coast has pushed energy prices at or close to record highs today -- including crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas. That's giving another boost to... READ MORE
ENERGY RALLY FADES... The threat from Hurricane Katrina caused an early spike in oil prices to $70 which caused early selling in stocks. As the day wore on, however, crude gave back most of its early gains to close up $1.15 at $67.20. The late pullback helped stabilize... READ MORE
SHORT-TERM SLIPPAGE... Wednesday's price action pushed the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average on a closing basis for the first time since mid-May and confirmed recent signs of weakening in its short-term trend. The SPY also closed back below its March... READ MORE
HOMEBUILDERS CONTINUE TO FALL ... I've written before about the fact that homebuilders (and REITs) were among the market's worst performers during August. That trend continued again today. But this time there was some tangible evidence that the housing boom might finally be slowing. July home resales... READ MORE
EAFE ISHARES ARE HAVING A STRONG AUGUST... I've written several pieces recently -- and again today -- about how a weakening dollar was helping foreign ETFs outperform the U.S. market. That's been especially true since the start of August. Chart 1 helps to show the effect the... READ MORE
EXCEED MARCH HIGH ... Last Monday I wrote a bullish story on the Japanese stock market. At the time, the Nikkei 225 was breaking out to a new four-year high. I suggested that Japan iShares (EWJ) were about to do the same. They're almost there. Chart 1 shows... READ MORE
ENERGY SPDR BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY LINE ... After selling off throughout the week, crude oil jumped sharply on Friday and gave a big boost to the energy sector. It's too soon to tell if today's bounce marked the end of the recent downside correction, but it... READ MORE
DOW DIAMONDS BOUNCE OFF 50-DAY LINE ... Little has happened to the major market averages since my Monday message. Chart 1 shows the Dow Diamonds bouncing off their 50-day average again. That's usually the first line of important support during a pullback or consolidation. The daily MACD... READ MORE
HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE ARCHIVES... One of our readers asked yesterday if I had any thoughts on the housing sector. In fact, I've written several articles on housing over the last month. An August 5 headline read: "Real Estate Has A Bad Week". An August 4... READ MORE
CRUDE DROP HURTS ENERGY SHARES... On Monday I wrote about energy shares looking over-extended and vulnerable to some profit-taking. They've been the weakest part of the market over the last two days. Not surprisingly, crude oil dropped more than $2.00 today as well. That'... READ MORE
DOW DIAMONDS HOLD 50-DAY LINE ... The Dow Diamonds have been moving sideways since the start of August. Despite their loss of upside momentum, there hasn't been much chart damage either. Chart 1 shows the Dow Diamonds surviving a test of their 50-day moving average at the... READ MORE
GOLD SHARES HAVE STRONG WEEK ... Among industry groups, gold stocks catapulted to the top spot last week. Chart 1 shows the Gold & Silver (XAU) Index breaking through a major down trendline and its 200-day moving average. A lot of that had to do with a weaker dollar. [I... READ MORE
JAPAN ETF CHALLENGES 2005 HIGH ... At the start of August, I wrote that a weaker dollar was giving a big boost to foreign Exchange Traded Funds which were outperforming the U.S. That's because foreign ETFs benefit from rising stocks and rising foreign currencies. There have been some... READ MORE
JOHN'S ON VACATION THIS WEEK...... John's taking a well deserved break from watching the markets. If everything is going to schedule, he should be enjoying the sights at Yellowstone National Park right about now. In the meantime, I thought we'd take a look back... READ MORE
S&P CONTINUES TO WEAKEN -- MACD TURNS DOWN ... The market's short-term picture continues to weaken. Yesterday I wrote about the MACD lines for the S&P 500 being on the verge of turning negative. They did that today for the S&P and several... READ MORE