THE MARKET ISN'T READY FOR $60 OIL... On Wednesday I suggested a more cautious view of the market due to the fact that several stock market indexes were up against resistance at their 2005 highs and in short-term overbought conditions. That's why Thursday's high-volume... READ MORE
DOW THEORISTS WON'T LIKE DROP IN TRANSPORTS ... Not too long ago I showed the Dow Transports dropping under their 200-day moving average and suggested that was a negative sign for Dow Theorists. Today's drop in the transports makes that situation even worse. Chart 1 shows the... READ MORE
GOLD JUMPS $4... The rally in gold continues. In today's trading, bullion has risen $4.00 and is trading at a new three-month high. Chart 1 shows the Gold ETF (GLD) having broken its eight-month down trendline and moving to up to test its March high. I think... READ MORE
A KEY TEST IS GOING ON IN A LOT OF INDEXES... While most market observers are watching the Dow and the S&P 500, it's important to recognize that several market indexes have already reached their 2005 highs and are undergoing an important test of that resistance... READ MORE
VALUE IS STILL IN THE LEAD ... One of the battles going on in the market is the one between large cap value versus growth. Charts 1 and 2 show a six-month comparison of two ETFs that reflect those two market segments. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 Value... READ MORE
DOLLAR IS STILL IN RALLY PHASE OFF 1995 LOW... Near the start of 2005, I showed a monthly chart of the Dollar Index similar to the one shown in Chart 1. The point of the earlier chart was to warn dollar bears that the USD was nearing a major support... READ MORE
BIOTECH INDEX TESTS EARLY 2004 HIGH ... On Friday I showed the Biotechnology Index breaking out to new 52-week high. It's hitting another new high today and very close to challenging its early 2004 high. There are several ways to participate in the biotech rally. One is buy some... READ MORE
HEALTHCARE ETF HITS 52-WEEK HIGH ... While a lot of attention has been paid to rising energy and basic material stocks this week, not much has been written about healthcare. It's time to correct that. Chart 1 shows the Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) closing the week at a... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 CORRECTION MAY BE ENDING ... I wrote earlier in the week that the market would have a hard time resuming its uptrend unless the Nasdaq started to move higher as well. That may very well be happening. One of the things I was looking for was a test of... READ MORE
MONEY IS FLOWING BACK INTO COMMODITY STOCKS... With commodity prices climbing again, it was just a matter of time until basic material stocks started to climb as well. Thanks to jumps in the price of copper and gold, the Materials Select SPDR (XLB) is the day's strongest sector.... READ MORE
MIDCAP INDEX REACHES NEW HIGH ... I recently showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index testing its early March high and suggested that what it did at that resistance barrier held an important clue to market direction. Chart 1 shows that the Mid Cap Index breaking through its 2005... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HOLDING THE MARKET BACK ... Ever since the Nasdaq market backed off from its spring high a couple of weeks ago, the rest of the market rally has stalled. That's because the market needs Nasdaq leadership to continue its summer rally. Last week I showed the Nasdaq... READ MORE
RETAIL HOLDERS NEAR 2005 HIGH... Retail stocks are the day's strongest group. Chart 1 shows the Retail Holders (RTH) very close to reaching a new 2005 high. The better performance by the retail group has actually been going on since early May when its relative strength line bottomed... READ MORE
WHY EUROPE ISHARES HAVE BEEN FALLING ... While the major European stock indexes are at or close to new 52-week highs, it may seem puzzling to see European stock ETFs falling since March. Chart 1 shows the Europe 350 iShares (IEV) peaking in March and declining toward its 200-day moving average.... READ MORE
NYSE AND DOW ARE STUCK BELOW RESISTANCE ... So far this week I've shown three market leaders -- the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 400 Midcap, and the Semiconductor (SOX) Index -- all backing off from chart resistance near their spring highs. That loss of leadership has prevented... READ MORE
SELLING INTEL ON THE NEWS ... Yesterday I showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index testing its 2005 high, and suggested that it held an important key to short-term market direction. The same is true for the semiconductor group. A positive mid-quarter report from Intel last evening was greeted... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL HITS NEW RECOVERY HIGH... Earlier today I wrote about the bullish breakout in the energy sector. That strong action in energy stocks was confirmed by equally bullish action in the commodity. Crude oil surged over 5% today to reach the highest level in nearly two months. Crude appears... READ MORE
MIDCAPS HAVE BEEN THE STRONGEST ... Earlier in the week I showed the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (MID) having already reached its March high. It's the first index to reach that important chart point. The MID/SPX ratio has been rising since the start of the... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFs ARE BREAKING OUT ... Yesterday I showed the two Energy ETFs that I track closely challenging their late April highs. A late drop in the price of oil yesterday prevented an upside breakout. With oil trading a dollar higher this afternoon, it looks like the bullish breakouts are taking... READ MORE
NASDAQ PULLS BACK FROM 2100 ... One of the reasons that the market rally remains stalled has to do with the inability of the Nasdaq Composite to get through its February/March highs at 2100. With the Nasdaq having moved into a short-term overbought condition, that was a logical spot to... READ MORE
SELECT DIVIDEND ETF IS DOING RELATIVELY WELL... Earlier in the year I wrote that one of the places that I thought would do well this year were large-cap dividend paying stocks. That was based partially on my general negative view of the stock market. Large-cap dividend stocks provide a market... READ MORE
DROP IN INVENTORIES BOOSTS OIL BY A DOLLAR ... A big drop in oil inventories reported today is pushing crude oil nearly a dollar higher today. Crude has been consolidating over the last week within its recent uptrend. It still looks like like crude is going to test its March high... READ MORE
BPI BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT ... On May 25, I wrote a message about the NYSE Bullish Percent Index bouncing off support near 50, which kept the cyclical bull market intact (May 25, 2005). Chart 1 is an updated version of the chart in that earlier piece. To refresh your memory, the... READ MORE
BOND YIELDS RESUME DECLINE ... Last week the yields on the 10-year T-note fell below 4% to the lowest level in a year. That gave a boost to the stock market and especially to stocks tied to interest rates. After bouncing back to the 4% level on Monday, yields are falling... READ MORE
GOLD IS ATTRACTING NEW ATTENTION... Over the last week I've shown the Gold & Silver (XAU) Index starting to bounce from potential chart support at its spring 2004 low, and the price of bullion bouncing off its February 2005 low. Last Friday I suggested it might be a... READ MORE
OIL ISN'T DEAD YET ... A lot of recent optimism on the stock market and the economy has been predicated on the view that the historic rise in oil prices has probably ended. A lot of economists have also declared the major bull market in commodities over. Both of... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL SURGES 5% ... After surviving a recent test of its 200-day moving average, crude oil surged $2.63 (5%) today. That puts the key commodity back over its 50-day average, its early May high, and breaks a two-month down trendline. That strong price action puts crude in position to... READ MORE
PLUNGE IN PRICE DATA PUSHES YIELDS LOWER... This morning's report that prices paid by manufacturers during May saw the biggest drop since the early 1970's helped push bond yields well below 4% and to the lowest level in a year. Chart 1 shows the 10-year T-note... READ MORE
EURO FALLS ON FRENCH VOTE... The Euro tumbled to the lowest level in seven months after the French voted against the European constitution over the weekend. Needless to say, that gave the dollar a big boost, but pushed gold prices lower. By day's end, however, gold regained some... READ MORE
LACK OF VOLUME IS A CONCERN ... The last time I showed the Nasdaq Composite market I wrote that it's next upside target was its spring high at 2100. Friday's close put it very close to that initial upside target. It's daily oscillators also show... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS NEAR 2005 HIGH ... As a follow-up to my earlier message on the improving performance by the semiconductor group, I'm going to focus this report on the Semiconductor Holders and a couple of big stocks pulling it higher. Chart 1 shows the Semiconductor Holders (SMH) trading within... READ MORE
THE SOX IS NEARING TEST OF MAJOR RESISTANCE ... On May 16 I wrote about new signs of leadership coming from the semiconductor group. That was predicated on the move by the SOX Index back over its moving average lines and, more importantly, an upturn in its relative strength line. That... READ MORE
THE NYSE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX... I've written about using the Bullish Percent Indexes with point & figure charts. As useful as that is, you can also produce line charts on the various Bullish Percent Indexes. And they can yield some interesting market information. Chart 1 shows the NYSE... READ MORE
10-YEAR T-NOTE TESTS FEBRUARY LOW ... After spiking higher from mid-February to mid-March, long-term rates have been dropping. No one is sure exactly why they've been dropping, but they have. Chart 1 shows, however, that the yield on the 10-year T-note (TNX) has reached an important chart point. The... READ MORE
CRUDE OIL BOUNCES OFF 200-DAY AVERAGE... Today's $1.58 gain in crude oil pushes it more than a dollar over the psychological $50 level and may represent a successful test of its 200-day moving average. That's giving a boost to energy stocks which have also been... READ MORE
A TRIBUTE TO JOHN BOLLINGER ... In honor of John Bollinger's having received the MTA Annual Award this past weekend, I thought it an appropriate time to write about his greatest invention which are aptly called Bollinger bands. Chart 1 shows the bands applied to a daily chart of... READ MORE
WHAT TOP TECHNICIANS ARE THINKING ... The Market Technicians Associations annual seminar held this past weekend in New York gave me a great opportunity to get a glimpse of what some of the top technical analysts are thinking right now. I was relieved that they were also a little puzzled by... READ MORE
OIL SERVICE INDEX TESTING 200-DAY AVERAGE... Oil service stocks, which have corrected downward with the price of crude oil, continue to test important chart support. Chart 1 shows the OSX trying to bounce off its 200-day moving average. The Commodity Channel (CCI) Index shows that the OSX is in oversold... READ MORE
SECTOR ROTATION MODEL... The diagram in chart 1 shows the sector rotations that normally occur at different stages of a market (red line) and business cycle (green line). When we talk about a business cycle, we're normally talking about the traditional four-year cycle. That means that these shifts... READ MORE
SECTOR ROTATIONS TURN POSITIVE ... Over the last couple of days, I've been writing about sector rotations that normally take place in a market upturn that's often accompanied by falling energy prices. Earlier in the week I wrote about how semiconductors were leading the technology-dominated Nasdaq market... READ MORE