S&P 500 TESTS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 50-day moving average (blue arrow). Stocks have entered a seasonally weak period extending from September into October. And despite the general consensus that stocks are due for a... READ MORE
Most of the time, the charts I plot are constructed from daily data. As a result, the necessary perspective provided by weekly ones often gets overlooked. By way of a remedy, I decided, some time ago, to create chartlists for key markets featuring weekly high low close and candlestick arrangements.... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the US stock market is in a long-term uptrend relative to the rest of the world. The upper window compares the S&P to the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF and indicates a recent breakout from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders. The lower panel substitutes the S&... READ MORE
When considered in their own right, commodities, as represented by the CRB Composite, are in a primary bull market. Chart 1, for instance, shows that the Index is above its 12- and 24-month moving averages and the long-term KST is also in a bullish trend. That said, this momentum indicator... READ MORE
October has historically been a seasonal sweet spot for stocks to stage substantial rallies. But will that be the case this year? In this special presentation, Larry looks to answer this question with facts and figures. This video was originally broadcast on August 26, 2021. Click anywhere on the Larry... READ MORE
Back in June, I wroteabout the possibility that a major reversal in the dollar could be underway, but that certain things had to happen before we could come to a firm conclusion. One of those conditions was a Dollar Index daily close above 93.5, as that would complete what... READ MORE
Last Friday, the University of Michigan released the initial August response to their consumer sentiment survey. A sharp 13.5% retreat was recorded. The Expectations Index fared even worse with a 17.5% drop. According to the summary report, only six of these monthly surveys since the late 1970s have... READ MORE
We hear a lot about inflation these days and have certainly experienced rising grocery bills, as well as runaway used car and housing prices. Commodity prices are often, but certainly not always, a leading indicator for the CPI, but there are three markets that have a useful, though imperfect, record... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REBOUNDS... A strong July jobs report is helping boost bond yields today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield bouncing 7 basis points to 1.29% on the day. A small double bottom on the daily bars suggests that a bottom may be forming. The TNX is... READ MORE
This morning, an interesting chart of the S&P Composite authored by Ed Clissold of NDR Research crossed my desk. It can be seen at @NDR_Research. It is a composite of 3 historic cycles: 1-year, 4-year (post-election) and 10-year decennial cycle with an average of years ending in... READ MORE
S&P 500 TOUCHES NEW RECORD... Stocks continue to rise with major stock indexes at or near record highs. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 touching new record territory. Smaller stocks have been lagging behind the large cap rally. But are starting to look stronger. That includes... READ MORE
After months of quiet frustrating trading, Bitcoin finally broke out to the upside this week. It's too early to say whether this is the beginning of a move to new all-time highs, as lots more backing and filling is probably necessary in order for it to form a... READ MORE
MARKET REBOUND CONTINUES... Stocks had another strong day today and have more than made back their sharp losses from Monday. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing above their 50-day average for the second day in row. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 gaining more ground following Monday&... READ MORE
The bad news is that a correction is underway and that many indicators and market averages have started to break through key support. The good news is that, internally, corrective activity has been underway for several months. Provided the bull market is still in existence (and there are few grounds... READ MORE
DOW SHATTERS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are opening the week sharply lower and on the pace for one of the year's biggest losses. Although all market averages are under pressure, the Dow is leading the decline. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials plunging below their 50-day average. The next... READ MORE
The US Breakout The S&P has been in a secular or very long-term uptrend against the Dow Jones World Stock Index since the financial crisis. That trend is still intact, as the ratio remains above its 2011-2021 up trendline. The primary trend picture is a bit mixed as... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE BOTTOMING... A combination of technical factors suggests that the recent decline in bond yields may be at or near a bottom. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield starting to find support near its red 200-day moving average which usually acts as a support line... READ MORE
When reviewing my charts last weekend, several jumped out as being at a pretty critical juncture, and therefore worthy of monitoring going forward. A couple of them involved the stock market, so I'll start there. Two Stock Market Relationships I have always been fascinated by the relationship between... READ MORE
TECH SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH... Stocks are trading higher again today on the back of a stronger than expected jobs report. Eight of eleven market sectors are rising with technology in the lead. Relative strength by the tech sector is something we've been seeing a lot of lately.... READ MORE
In the last couple of weeks or so, US treasury yield curves have begun to flatten. That may sound unduly technical and boring, but it has implications for bonds stocks and the economy. I'll get to the investment implications later, but for now I'll quickly through... READ MORE
This week saw the NASDAQ and S&P Composites rally to a new high, but not the DJIA, NYSE Composite, Unweighted S&P and Russell 2000. That's not necessarily the kiss of death, as these discrepancies can always be cleared up over time. In any case,... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS OUT TO NEW RECORD... Stocks are having another strong day with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hitting new records. The Nasdaq breakout is especially impressive. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index having broken through its February/April highs to reach new record territory. In... READ MORE
DOW UNDERCUTS ITS MAY LOW... Some hawkish comments on interest rates by a member of the Fed this morning is taking a negative toll on stocks. The Dow is under the most pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its May low to the lowest level in nearly... READ MORE
DOLLAR JUMPS ON FED MESSAGE... The Fed's more hawkish tone yesterday set off a number of intermarket reactions. Stocks sold off (although not by that much), and bond yields rose. Prospects for higher rates in the U.S. also had a positive impact on the dollar. Chart 1... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that, since 2015, the Dollar Index has been in a narrowing trading range bounded by two converging trendlines. That period has also embraced the end part of the 2011-2016 bull market, a mini bear and bull market and the current bear. I use the term "bear&... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust closing above its April high to achieve a new record. Technology was the day's strongest sector. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) nearing a test of its April high. Semiconductors had another strong day as... READ MORE
In this special presentation, Larry shares his views about what is coming for stocks, gold, crude oil and bonds. He provides some of his secrets of cycles and fundamentals, with an alert on what you need to be following going forward. As an added bonus, Larry highlights a specific trade... READ MORE
Last week, I featured three energy-related ETFs as part of an article on the bond market, as they had just broken out on a short-term basis. Chart 1 shows that those breakouts have held so far. This week, though, I'd like to take a deeper dive into the... READ MORE
NASDAQ LEADS MARKET HIGHER... Stocks are reacting positively to this morning's job report which came in weaker than expected but showed job growth during May. Bond yields weakened on the report which may be helping to boost stocks, and technology stocks in particular. Chart 1 shows the Invesco... READ MORE
The Dilemma Between the Long and Short-Ends Last March, I wrote an articleopining that, while the primary trend was positive, the idea of rising bond yields may have been become too popular for the time being. In the intervening 2 ½-months, yields at the long end have backed off a... READ MORE
The Big Picture Before we get into the subject of corrections, it's important to make sure that we do not lose focus on the big picture. For instance, take Chart 1, which features the Value Line Geometric Average. It reflects the performance of the average stock, as opposed... READ MORE
10-YEAR YIELD PULLS BACK... Despite all the talk about accelerating inflation, bond yields have been pulling back of late. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the 10-Year Treasury yield falling to the lowest level in three weeks and trading below its 50-day moving average. The TNX set a 52-week... READ MORE
MONTHLY RANKINGS... Major stock indexes are ending the week with little change. The Dow and S&P 500 show a modest loss while the Nasdaq is showing a minor gain. To get a better sense of what's moving the market, a look at sector rankings can offer... READ MORE
DOW AND S&P 500 HOLD SHORT-TERM SUPPORT...Stocks opened sharply lower this morning but recovered most of their losses by day's end. One encouraging sign was that the Dow the S&P 500 found some support at their 50-day moving averages and potential chart at... READ MORE
Gold has rallied nicely in the last few weeks, so the question naturally arises as to whether it's ready to resume its secular bull market. I'll get to that later, but first, a little perspective. Longer-Term Perspective Chart 1 plots the real price as adjusted by... READ MORE
GOLD AND ITS MINERS MAY BE TURNING UP... Precious metals have sat out the rally in most commodity markets. But money is starting to flow into the group and its miners. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rising above its early 2021 peak... READ MORE
THE NASDAQ REMAINS IN SHORT-TERM DOWNTREND... The tech-dominated Nasdaq market continues to show relative weakness. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite trading well below its 50-day average and in a short-term downtrend. Prices are attempting a rebound today from yesterday's heavy selling. If that low doesn't... READ MORE
INFLATION SPIKE BOOSTS BOND YIELDS... A spike in April CPI and its inflationary implications is boosting bond yields and hurting stock prices. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield jumping nearly 6 basis points today to 1.68% and close to exceeding its late April peak. That's having... READ MORE
Many internal short-term indicators are overextended and starting to look vulnerable, but need some kind of a push to tip the near-term technical balance to the bearish side. That push may have been delivered with Monday's action, as several indexes gave the appearance of some selected short-term buyer... READ MORE
DOW NEARS SHORT-TERM SUPPORT... The Dow gapped sharply lower today and inflicted some short-term chart damage. Chart 1 shows its 14-day RSI backing off from overbought territory near 70; the red arrow shows its daily MACD lines forming a lower high than in April which shows some loss of upside... READ MORE