The S&P peaked in early September, but most other major averages and many internal indicators of breadth have been rangebound since March. Price action this week, though, suggests that there is a good chance this corrective process has run its course and we will see significant new highs... READ MORE
STOCK INDEXES CLEAR 50-DAY LINES... Stocks are rising again today following yesterday's strong rally. And their technical condition is looking stronger. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials rising to the highest level in a month and moving back above its blue 50-day average. Chart 2 shows the S&... READ MORE
One of my favorite indicators is the Special K. It does not speak to us very often, but when it does, it's usually pretty reliable. I'll outline a few principles below, but for further reading, look hereandhere. The Special K, or SPK, recognizes the fact that... READ MORE
It's time for Halloween and Larry has some really nice treats for you in this new StockCharts TV special! One treat is in Gold and one is in the stock market itself, so grab your pens and get ready! This video was originally broadcast on October 12, 2021.... READ MORE
ENERGY ETFS ACHIEVE BULLISH BREAKOUTS... Rising energy prices continue to fuel a rally in energy shares which are the day's strongest sector. Crude oil and natural gas are trading at the highest level in several years and show no signs of slowing down. That's contributing to... READ MORE
WATCHING 100-DAY AVERAGES...Stocks remain in a short- to intermediate term downturn that started during September. And moving average lines are being broken. It started with stock indexes falling below their 50-day moving averages. And then falling below their 100-day lines. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its... READ MORE
Back in AprilandMay, I wrote about the possibility that the tech-dominated NASDAQ had begun to lose its mojo. The argument was based more on relative action than the absolute price, as I was, and still am, bullish on the primary trend. Recent NASDAQ Underperformance is Likely to Extend Chart 1... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 3-MONTH HIGH...The steep rise in Treasury yields that started last week continued again today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield climbing 5 basis points today to 1.53%. That puts the TNX at the highest level in three months. Yields are being pushed higher... READ MORE
Last week, the Fed announced that tapering is likely to begin later in the year, to be later followed by a leisurely hike in rates. As usual, those pesky impatient markets have decided to raise rates now rather than wait for the clobbering they know they will get later. It... READ MORE
STOCKS MAKE UP LOST GROUND...Two strong days in a row have more than made back losses suffered on Monday. In addition, some of the short-term technical damage has been repaired. More specifically, 50-day moving averages that were broken on Monday have been regained on the S&P 500... READ MORE
Larry is back again! The topic du jour is "Trading Bitcoins & Cryptocurrencies." They have become really big markets with a huge following. Larry will share his insights on how to trade them, the problems with them and the opportunities. If you're a Bitcoin trader, you&... READ MORE
Earlier in the month, I pointed out that the long-term indicators for commodities were still bullish, but getting overbought. At the same time, several intermarket relationships were signaling danger, which suggested some degree of vulnerability. Prices have not moved very much since then, but, bearing in mind that overstretched technical... READ MORE
SEPTEMBER SELLING DEEPENS ON CHINA CONCERNS... Monday's heavy selling of stocks was the biggest drop since the spring. The selling started in China on concerns over its property market and spread to Europe and the U.S. Going into Monday, stocks were already pulling back on fears that... READ MORE
S&P 500 TESTS 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE... Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 trying to find support at its 50-day moving average (blue arrow). Stocks have entered a seasonally weak period extending from September into October. And despite the general consensus that stocks are due for a... READ MORE
Most of the time, the charts I plot are constructed from daily data. As a result, the necessary perspective provided by weekly ones often gets overlooked. By way of a remedy, I decided, some time ago, to create chartlists for key markets featuring weekly high low close and candlestick arrangements.... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that the US stock market is in a long-term uptrend relative to the rest of the world. The upper window compares the S&P to the Vanguard All-World ex-US ETF and indicates a recent breakout from a consolidation reverse head-and-shoulders. The lower panel substitutes the S&... READ MORE
When considered in their own right, commodities, as represented by the CRB Composite, are in a primary bull market. Chart 1, for instance, shows that the Index is above its 12- and 24-month moving averages and the long-term KST is also in a bullish trend. That said, this momentum indicator... READ MORE
October has historically been a seasonal sweet spot for stocks to stage substantial rallies. But will that be the case this year? In this special presentation, Larry looks to answer this question with facts and figures. This video was originally broadcast on August 26, 2021. Click anywhere on the Larry... READ MORE
Back in June, I wroteabout the possibility that a major reversal in the dollar could be underway, but that certain things had to happen before we could come to a firm conclusion. One of those conditions was a Dollar Index daily close above 93.5, as that would complete what... READ MORE
Last Friday, the University of Michigan released the initial August response to their consumer sentiment survey. A sharp 13.5% retreat was recorded. The Expectations Index fared even worse with a 17.5% drop. According to the summary report, only six of these monthly surveys since the late 1970s have... READ MORE
We hear a lot about inflation these days and have certainly experienced rising grocery bills, as well as runaway used car and housing prices. Commodity prices are often, but certainly not always, a leading indicator for the CPI, but there are three markets that have a useful, though imperfect, record... READ MORE
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REBOUNDS... A strong July jobs report is helping boost bond yields today. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield bouncing 7 basis points to 1.29% on the day. A small double bottom on the daily bars suggests that a bottom may be forming. The TNX is... READ MORE
This morning, an interesting chart of the S&P Composite authored by Ed Clissold of NDR Research crossed my desk. It can be seen at @NDR_Research. It is a composite of 3 historic cycles: 1-year, 4-year (post-election) and 10-year decennial cycle with an average of years ending in... READ MORE
S&P 500 TOUCHES NEW RECORD... Stocks continue to rise with major stock indexes at or near record highs. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 touching new record territory. Smaller stocks have been lagging behind the large cap rally. But are starting to look stronger. That includes... READ MORE
After months of quiet frustrating trading, Bitcoin finally broke out to the upside this week. It's too early to say whether this is the beginning of a move to new all-time highs, as lots more backing and filling is probably necessary in order for it to form a... READ MORE
MARKET REBOUND CONTINUES... Stocks had another strong day today and have more than made back their sharp losses from Monday. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials closing above their 50-day average for the second day in row. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 gaining more ground following Monday&... READ MORE
The bad news is that a correction is underway and that many indicators and market averages have started to break through key support. The good news is that, internally, corrective activity has been underway for several months. Provided the bull market is still in existence (and there are few grounds... READ MORE
DOW SHATTERS 50-DAY LINE... Stocks are opening the week sharply lower and on the pace for one of the year's biggest losses. Although all market averages are under pressure, the Dow is leading the decline. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials plunging below their 50-day average. The next... READ MORE
The US Breakout The S&P has been in a secular or very long-term uptrend against the Dow Jones World Stock Index since the financial crisis. That trend is still intact, as the ratio remains above its 2011-2021 up trendline. The primary trend picture is a bit mixed as... READ MORE
TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD MAY BE BOTTOMING... A combination of technical factors suggests that the recent decline in bond yields may be at or near a bottom. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury yield starting to find support near its red 200-day moving average which usually acts as a support line... READ MORE
When reviewing my charts last weekend, several jumped out as being at a pretty critical juncture, and therefore worthy of monitoring going forward. A couple of them involved the stock market, so I'll start there. Two Stock Market Relationships I have always been fascinated by the relationship between... READ MORE
TECH SECTOR SHOWS RELATIVE STRENGTH... Stocks are trading higher again today on the back of a stronger than expected jobs report. Eight of eleven market sectors are rising with technology in the lead. Relative strength by the tech sector is something we've been seeing a lot of lately.... READ MORE
In the last couple of weeks or so, US treasury yield curves have begun to flatten. That may sound unduly technical and boring, but it has implications for bonds stocks and the economy. I'll get to the investment implications later, but for now I'll quickly through... READ MORE
This week saw the NASDAQ and S&P Composites rally to a new high, but not the DJIA, NYSE Composite, Unweighted S&P and Russell 2000. That's not necessarily the kiss of death, as these discrepancies can always be cleared up over time. In any case,... READ MORE
NASDAQ BREAKS OUT TO NEW RECORD... Stocks are having another strong day with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hitting new records. The Nasdaq breakout is especially impressive. Chart 1 shows the Nasdaq Composite Index having broken through its February/April highs to reach new record territory. In... READ MORE
DOW UNDERCUTS ITS MAY LOW... Some hawkish comments on interest rates by a member of the Fed this morning is taking a negative toll on stocks. The Dow is under the most pressure. Chart 1 shows the Dow Industrials trading below its May low to the lowest level in nearly... READ MORE
DOLLAR JUMPS ON FED MESSAGE... The Fed's more hawkish tone yesterday set off a number of intermarket reactions. Stocks sold off (although not by that much), and bond yields rose. Prospects for higher rates in the U.S. also had a positive impact on the dollar. Chart 1... READ MORE
Chart 1 shows that, since 2015, the Dollar Index has been in a narrowing trading range bounded by two converging trendlines. That period has also embraced the end part of the 2011-2016 bull market, a mini bear and bull market and the current bear. I use the term "bear&... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW RECORD... Chart 1 shows the Invesco QQQ Trust closing above its April high to achieve a new record. Technology was the day's strongest sector. Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) nearing a test of its April high. Semiconductors had another strong day as... READ MORE
In this special presentation, Larry shares his views about what is coming for stocks, gold, crude oil and bonds. He provides some of his secrets of cycles and fundamentals, with an alert on what you need to be following going forward. As an added bonus, Larry highlights a specific trade... READ MORE