NEW SIGNS OF STRENGTH ... Yesterday I wrote about how the healthcare sector was starting to move up in the relative strength rankings. I mentioned that over the previous week, HC had moved into third place behind technology and consumer staples. One of our readers asked if new buying in HC... READ MORE
ALTERA AND XILINX FALL HARD ... Both chip stocks cut earnings forecasts and are falling heavily today on rising volume. Charts 1 and 2 show the chart damage being done. Both stocks have gapped beneath moving average lines and previous breakout points along thier September/October highs. With the trading day... READ MORE
BIOTECHS ARE DAY'S STRONGEST GROUP ... Biotech stocks are not only helping the healthcare sector today; they're also the day's strongest industry group. And their charts are starting to look more promising. Chart 1 shows the Biotechnology Index in an apparent "ascending triangle"... READ MORE
FOREIGN CURRENCIES ARE FALLING ... A sharp rebound in an oversold dollar is causing heavy selling on foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the Euro gapping down to 132 today and nearing a test of its 20-day moving average. The Japanese yen has already broken that initial support line and is... READ MORE
COMMODITY STOCKS ARE FALLING ... Almost anything related to commodities fell hard today. Gold stocks have been falling for a week. And so have oil stocks. Another big drop in crude today pushed the Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE) under its 50-day moving average for the first time in three... READ MORE
REVISITING NETWORKERS... Back in mid-November, I wrote about the Network iShares (IGN) breaking through their 200-day moving average (see red circle) and starting to move from technology laggards to leaders November 15, 2004. That leadership is continuing today. In fact, the IGN is the day's strongest... READ MORE
INTEL TRYING TO HOLD GAP AREA... I'm going to take a close look at Intel because of its importance in the Semiconductor (SOX) Index and the Nasdaq market (not to mention the Dow and the S&P 500). A bullish report last Thursday caused Intel to gap... READ MORE
P&F CHART OF NASDAQ 100 ... The main benefit of point & figure charts is that they give precise buy and sell signals. A buy signal occurs when a column of x's exceeds a previous x column. A sell doesn't occur until a column of... READ MORE
OCTOBER TOP IS NORMAL... Since the direction of crude oil is so important to the stock market, and because I've received so many questions on the energy sector this week, I'd like to spend more time on the subject. Before doing so, however, I'd... READ MORE
LONG-TERM CHART OF OIH ... Once again, I need to clarify the difference between short and long-term market action. A reader recently asked where the next upside target for the OIH was. I showed the following chart with an upside target near 98. That was a long-term projection.... READ MORE
ENERGY CONTINUES TO CORRECT ... With crude oil falling another dollar today, energy stocks remain on the defensive. The weakest part of the energy sector -- oil service -- is falling the hardest. Chart 1 shows the Oil Service Holders (OIH) breaking their 50-day average. A further drop to the early November... READ MORE
CRUDE DROPS $3.64 ON THE DAY ... Crude oil plunged over $3 today (-7.4%) and is on the verge of undercutting its mid-November low. That took place after crude had recovered half of its recent price drop from $55 to $45, and suggests the likelihood that it will... READ MORE
DROP IN OIL HURTS OSX -- SOX IS RETESTING 200-DAY LINE ... The market is reacting very positively to today's big drop in the price of crude. As a result, Energy is one of the few sectors in the red today (along with Utilities. More on the utility selling... READ MORE
GATEWAY HITS 52-WEEK HIGH ... Even on a relatively flat market day, there's always something going up. Today it was Gateway. The stock was the biggest percentage gainer in the S&P 500. And its daily bars in Chart 1 pretty much speak for themselves. GTW broke... READ MORE
STOCK PLUNGES 3.4% ... Retailers are the day's weakest stock market group. The main reason is today's 3.4% plunge in the stock of Wal-Mart which is the world's largest retailer. In so doing, the stock is suffering some serious chart damage. Just... READ MORE
FEAR OF LESS FOREIGN BUYING ... Not too long ago I wrote that there were two main side-effects that would flow from a falling dollar. One was, of course, higher commodity prices. The other was the flow of funds into foreign markets. Money tends to flow from countries with falling... READ MORE
TURKEY BOUNCE STILL FAVORS VALUE... The market enjoyed its traditional pre-Thanksgiving bounce. All the major averages ended the day in plus territory with the the S&P 500 closing up nearly 5 points. The hourly bars in Chart 1 show, however, that the S&P 500 is... READ MORE
BE CAREFUL WITH THE DOLLAR... If you've been reading my commentary for any length of time, you'll know that I've been bearish on the dollar for more than two years. My book on Intermarket Analysis, which was written last year, devoted a lot of... READ MORE
SMALL CAPS STILL LEAD LARGE CAPS ... Small caps have been the best performers by size this year. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has gained 11% this year versus 6% for the large cap Russell 1000 Index and the S&P 500 Large Cap Index. Midcaps came in second... READ MORE
TIPS ARE INFLATION PROTECTED BONDS... With all the talk about protecting oneself against rising inflation pressures resulting from higher commodities and a falling dollar, it's worth considering Inflation Protected Securities (or TIPS). These are Treasury bonds that are indexed to the rate of inflation as measured by the... READ MORE
ANOTHER LOOK AT THE CRB/SPX RATIO ... One of our newer readers expressed puzzlement at the ratio of the CRB/S&P 500 chart that I showed on Friday. The chart is a ratio of the CRB Index (representing commodities). The point of the chart was simply to show... READ MORE
A CORRECTION ... In my Friday evening message, I mentioned that the 1140 level for the S&P 500 was important because it represented a couple of percentage retracement levels. One of our readers pointed out, however, that one of the numbers was incorrect. Here are the right numbers. Chart... READ MORE
ANOTHER LOOK AT RSI AND ADX ... It looks like I got a little too cute with my short-term reading of the RSI and ADX lines. Since I've gotten several questions on them, and given today's stock selling, I need to do some more explaining (and... READ MORE
DOLLAR PLUNGES AGAINST THE YEN ... In a speech today, Mr. Greenspan expressed concern that foreign investors might tire of financing the big U.S. trade deficit unless they were rewarded with higher interest rates. He also showed no enthusiasm for stopping the dollar slide which is accelerating to the downside.... READ MORE
ENERGY SECTOR IS RISING AFTER ALL ... With crude oil trying to stabilize in the $46-47 dollar range (and in an oversold condition), energy stocks are starting to climb again. In fact, Energy was the day's top market sector. Chart 1 shows the Energy Select Sector SPDR surviving... READ MORE
SOX IS CHALLENGING 200-DAY LINE... A strong technology sector is leading the market into a broad-based rally today with the major stock indexes resuming their fourth quarter uptrends. Good news from Hewlett Packard and Kmart's purchase of Sears helped light the fuse. The strongest technology group,... READ MORE
PPI HITS 14-YEAR HIGH ... The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report saw a shocking jump of 1.7%, which is the biggest monthly jump in fourteen years. Most of the gain came from rising food and energy prices, but it can't be ignored. That also puts producer... READ MORE
SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDERS REACH FOUR-MONTH HIGH... The chip groups continues to creep higher. Today's buying put the Semiconductor Holders at the highest level since mid-July. Its relative strength line, which bottomed in early September, is creeping higher as well. Two of the day's top percentage... READ MORE
DELL DOES IT... The last time I wrote about Dell on October 6 I drew the same two lines shown in Chart 1 and identified them as a bullish "triangular" pattern. A flat upper line and a rising lower line is called an "ascending triangle" which... READ MORE
ANOTHER GOLD FUND... Earlier in the week, I wrote about a Canadian gold-mining ETF that's traded in Toronto (Chart 1). A number of readers messaged me about a closed-end gold fund traded on the American Stock Exchange. It's called the Central Fund of Canada... READ MORE
S&P 500 SPDRS GIVE ANOTHER BUY SIGNAL ... Major stock averages achieved strong market gains with virtually all sectors and industry groups contributing. The only losers were gold and oil -- and their losses were relatively small. A sharp drop in oil prices, however, did give a market a big... READ MORE
NASDAQ 100 AND S&P 500 ARE ON BUY SIGNALS ... A few weeks back I wrote an article explaining how to use point & figure Bullish Percent charts (October 21, 2004). The Bullish Percent Indexes that can be found on the Stockcharts Market Summary page are based on the... READ MORE
10-YEAR T-NOTE YIELD NEARS UPSIDE BREAKOUT ... On Monday I wrote about the possibility that long-term yields could be starting to rise again. After the Fed today raised short-term rates to 2%, long-term rates moved up as well. With short-term rates rising, a weaker dollar,... READ MORE
JAPANESE ARE SELLING THE YEN... The September US trade deficit showed an unexpected drop. While it's still very high, today's announcement is causing some buying of dollars and selling of foreign currencies. Chart 1 shows the Euro struggling to hold its recent move above the February... READ MORE
MICROSOFT TESTING TWO-YEAR HIGH ... Microsoft carries a lot of influence on the Dow and the Nasdaq because of its large size. That's why it's worth noting that the technology giant is on the verge of a major bullish breakout. Chart 1 shows MSFT moving up... READ MORE
CHEMICALS ARE LEADERS... The last time we looked at the Materials Select Sector SPDR it was just starting to bounce off its late September low and its 200-day moving average after having a bad October. Since then, the group has recovered and more. Chart 1 shows the XLB breaking... READ MORE
NO SURPRISES... I'm happy to see that the markets did pretty much what was expected while I was in Europe last week. Now that I'm back I thought I'd review some of the recent intermarket trends -- just to bring things up to date. Basically,... READ MORE
HANG IN THERE - JOHN WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK... John is currently in Europe speaking at two different conferences. He will be back next week. In the mean time... A GOOD TIME FOR A REVIEW... I wanted to take this time to make sure that all of our Murphy members... READ MORE
MURPHY MARKET MESSAGES INDEX... I'll be in Europe next week to give a speech at the International Federation of Technical Analysts Conference in Madrid, Spain and make a couple of other speaking stops along the way. My main topic will be the same market trends and sector rotations... READ MORE
OIL VS. THE AIRLINES ... I've been asked a lot lately to explain why the transports continue to climb in the face of rising oil prices. Historically, the transports are adversely affected by higher energy costs. This time it has been different at least for some transportation stocks. Ironically,... READ MORE